tuesday, 4 september 2018 d a i ly r e p o r t research … · 2018. 9. 4. · tuesday, 4 september...

Tuesday, 4 September 2018

D A I LY R E P O R T

Daily Report is also available in BNI Sekuritas website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id

RESEARCH Equity

MARKET PREDICTION TODAY

The JCI Is Forecasted To Continue Its Weakening

Yesterday, the JCI continued its weakening by posting a decline of 0.85% at 5,967.58. Asia Pacific regional bourses also weakened which a significant decline was posted by Hang Seng of 0.63%, closed at 27,712.54 while Nikkei fell by 0.69% to 22,707.38. Among the stocks which dragged the JCI down were HMSP, ASII and BMRI. Foreign investors posted a net sell of Rp 306 billion. Meanwhile, IDR currency weakened 0.57%, closed at the level of IDR 14,896 per USD.

Furthermore on global bourses, Dow Jones and Nasdaq had holiday due to Labor Day. Meanwhile, European bourses moved higher which CAC 40 surged by 0.13% to 5.413,80 while FTSE 100 strengthened by 0.97% to the level of 7,504.60. This morning, Asia Pacific regional bourses are mostly moving negatively which Nikkei is opened lower. Hence, we estimate that the JCI today is potentially to continue its weakening which is influenced by the issue of negative movement of regional bourses, trend of weakening IDR against USD and potential of escalating trade tension between US and China. The index movement is estimated in the range of 5,900 – 6,000 which our top stocks pick for today trading session are PTBA, UNTR and BSDE.

Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra ([email protected])

COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE

PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA): The Disbursement of CDB Loan stage II. BUY. Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra.

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) Will Distribute Dividends. HOLD. Analyst: Dessy Lapagu.

Global Indices Closing Change %Chg %Ytd P/EAmericasINDU Index 25,964.82 -22.1 -0.09 5.04 18.43SPX Index 2,901.52 0.39 0.01 8.52 21.01CCMP Index 8,109.54 21.174 0.26 17.47 52.94IBOV Index 76,192.73 -484.8 -0.63 (0.27) 17.84EMEAUKX Index 7,504.60 72.18 0.97 (2.38) 16.61CAC Index 5,413.80 6.95 0.13 1.91 16.73RTSSTD Index 15,615.79 -3.1 -0.02 14.21 6.13IBEX Index 9,376.10 -23 -0.24 (6.65) 13.76FTSEMIB Index 20,395.79 126.32 0.62 (6.67) 3.88AEX Index 559.78 1.36 0.24 2.79 15.18SMI Index 9,003.47 29.91 0.33 (4.03) 23.88Asia / PacificNKY Index 22,632.30 -75.08 -0.33 (0.58) 16.32HSI Index 27,712.54 -176.01 -0.63 (7.38) 10.47SHCOMP Index 2,720.73 -4.516 -0.17 (17.73) 12.80TWSE Index 10,964.22 -99.72 -0.90 3.02 14.23KOSPI Index 2,308.12 1.09 0.05 (6.46) 11.12JCI Index 5,967.58 -50.881 -0.85 (6.11) 20.02SET Index 1,721.21 -0.37 -0.02 (1.85) 17.06PCOMP Index 7,832.22 -23.49 -0.30 (8.49) 20.12SENSEX Index 38,312.52 -332.55 -0.86 12.50 25.13FSSTI Index 3,207.20 -6.28 -0.20 (5.75) 11.32

Description Last Previous %ChgMarket Capitalization (IDR Trillion) 6,726.51 6,783.26 -0.84Transaction Volume (Million Shares) 4,449.00 5,996.37 -25.81Transaction Value (IDR Million) 4,060.00 7,264.58 -44.11Stocks Value (IDR) 912.56 1,211.50 -24.67Net Foreign (IDR Million) (305,913.88) (434,743.75) -29.63

Commodities Last Previous %ChgNickel (US$/Ton) 12,790.00 12,800.00 -0.08Copper (US$/Ton) 5,967.00 5,975.00 -0.13Tins (US$/Ton) 18,840.00 18,990.00 -0.79Oil (US$/BBL) (*) 69.80 70.25 -0.64Gas (US$/MMBTU) 2.58 2.73 -5.38Coal (US$/Ton) (**) 116.25 115.20 0.91CPO MALAYSIA(RM/ton) 2,392.00 2,394.00 -0.08(*) WTI Cushing(**) McCloskey Newscatle

ADR Stocks Last (US$) % Conversition Last(US$) Change (IDR) (IDR)

Telkom 43,347.00 23.67 1.07 8,920.58 3490.00

Recommendation TP (IDR)PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA) BUY 3,500PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) HOLD 2,370

Bloomberg Code

Company/Industry Updates



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RESEARCH Equity

HIGHLIGHT NEWS

Vale SA and Sumitomo Group are ready to reduce their shares ownership in PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) up to 20% in accordance with the contract which this corporate action is targeted to be completed in October 2018.

PT Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk (HOKI) plans to build a Husk or Rice Husk Power Plant in South Sumatra.

PT Bukaka Teknik Utama Tbk (BUKK) announced on 27 August 2018, its subsidiary PT Poso Energi (PE), which around 25% shares are owned by the company, had merged with PT Poso Energi Satu Pamona (PESP).

PT Trias Sentosa Tbk (TRST) and PT Multi Spunindo Jaya formed a joint venture which both companies are not affiliated parties.

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) and PT Jabar Bersih Lestari signed an agreement to purchase Refused Derived Fuel (RDF).

(Source: IQ Plus)

Net Foreign BUY/-SELL Accumulation

USD/IDR Currency and JCI

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

-60,000,000

-50,000,000

-40,000,000

-30,000,000

-20,000,000

-10,000,000

0

10,000,000

2/01

/201

89/

01/2

018

16/0

1/20

1823

/01/

2018

30/0

1/20

186/

02/2

018

13/0

2/20

1821

/02/

2018

28/0

2/20

187/

03/2

018

14/0

3/20

1821

/03/

2018

28/0

3/20

185/

04/2

018

12/0

4/20

1819

/04/

2018

26/0

4/20

184/

05/2

018

14/0

5/20

1821

/05/

2018

28/0

5/20

186/

06/2

018

22/0

6/20

1829

/06/

2018

6/07

/201

813

/07/

2018

20/0

7/20

1827

/07/

2018

3/08

/201

810

/08/

2018

20/0

8/20

1828

/08/

2018

Accumulation JCI Index

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

JCI Index USDIDR

No Stock Top Value (IDR)1 BBRI IJ 205,052,400,000 2 BBCA IJ 190,558,500,000 3 BMRI IJ 187,799,400,000 4 ASII IJ 178,467,500,000 5 POOL IJ 167,332,900,000

No Stock Top Volume (Shares)1 RIMO IJ 1,055,255,400.00 2 IIKP IJ 250,740,700.00 3 TRAM IJ 196,516,800.00 4 MYRX IJ 158,465,800.00 5 BUMI IJ 157,324,100.00

No Top Gainers % Change1 AKSI IJ 252 NASA IJ 16.93 IDPR IJ 15.114 EPMT IJ 12.985 SMDM IJ 12.88

No Top Losers % Change1 GLOB IJ -15.792 APII IJ -13.333 KBLM IJ -10.714 NIKL IJ -10.615 MMLP IJ -10.53

No Leading Movers % Change1 BBNI IJ 0.642 PNBN IJ 4.123 NASA IJ 16.904 CPIN IJ 0.905 BDMN IJ 1.10

No Lagging Movers % Change1 BMRI IJ -2.902 ASII IJ -2.073 HMSP IJ -1.044 INKP IJ -3.015 INTP IJ -4.37



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RESEARCH Equity


News: PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA): The Disbursement of CDB Loan stage II

WIKA as one of High Speed Rail Consortium Contractor (HSRCC) is optimistic for the execution of the construction of the project following the loan disbursement phase II of USD 274.8 million by China Development Bank (CDB) last week. Previously CDB has disbursed loan of USD 170 million in the beginning of May 2018. WIKA’s scope of work in project is structure, architecture, landscape, mechanical and electrical.

Analyst Opinion:

We believe that the gradual loan disbursement from CDB indicating a high confidence from CDB in Jakarta-Bandung high speed rail project. The loan may accelerate the project construction. High speed rail will be a breakthrough in transportation mode in Indonesia. Totally, CDB is expected to disburse loan of USD 4.5 billion. We estimate WIKA to book revenue and net profit growth of 14.6% YoY to Rp 30.0 trillion and 28.6% YoY to Rp 1.5 trillion respectively in FY18. Operating margin and net profit margin are expected to reach 11.1% and 5.1% correspondingly while ROE and ROE are estimated to reach 11.0% and 3.9% respectively this year. Currently, WIKA stock is traded at 2018E PER and PBV of 9.0x and 1.0x respectively, compared to industry average with PER of 10.5x and PBV of 1.3x. We recommend BUY for WIKA with a target price (TP) of Rp 3,500 per share.

Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra ([email protected])

Income statement (Rp billion)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018ERevenue 12,463.30 13,620.10 15,668.85 26,176.40 30,001.63Operating profit 1,401.70 1,515.34 2,080.76 2,199.56 3,315.89 Interest expense (197.70) (431.40) (435.30) (677.97) (713.05)Pretax income 1,139.62 1,099.66 1,295.24 1,462.39 2,477.63 Minority interest (135.60) (78.00) (152.09) (154.00) (167.21)Net income 607.62 624.56 1,058.94 1,202.07 1,544.72Basic EPS 98.96 101.72 162.21 134.10 172.39EBITDA 1,436.39 1,554.80 2,111.55 2,813.71 3,373.22

Balance Sheet (Rp billion)

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018ECash 2,300.39 2,561.03 9,270.17 8,528.67 8,146.50Short-term investment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00Accounts receivable 1,962.80 2,782.00 2,730.26 2,741.83 3,408.94Other current assets 4,833.10 6,778.40 9,007.82 13,146.48 16,334.15Inventories 384.40 439.60 544.32 847.14 1,056.77Total current assets 9,480.69 12,561.03 21,552.57 25,264.12 28,947.35Fixed assets 2,676.00 3,184.40 3,465.80 4,700.90 5,500.90Other long-term assets 3,751.80 3,857.10 6,078.22 4,671.72 5,498.85Total Assets 15,908.49 19,602.53 31,096.59 34,636.74 39,947.10Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityAccounts payable 3,902.80 4,323.40 4,680.24 6,117.25 7,631.03Short-term borrowings 1,708.10 1,817.80 5,407.00 2,203.79 2,730.46Other short-term liabilities 2,865.20 4,456.40 4,518.90 6,985.37 8,700.23Total Current Liabilities 8,476.10 10,597.60 14,606.14 15,306.41 19,061.73Long-term borrowings 1,323.60 1,692.50 1,340.90 1,014.15 0.00Other long-term liabilities 1,232.86 1,874.37 2,650.80 3,659.42 4,549.78Total Long-Term Liabilities 2,556.46 3,566.87 3,991.70 4,673.57 4,549.78Total Liabilities 11,032.56 14,164.47 18,597.84 19,979.98 23,611.51Minority interest 989.20 1,062.90 1,146.83 1,883.12 2,341.30Total Equity 3,886.68 4,375.13 11,351.96 12,773.58 13,994.29



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RESEARCH Equity


News: PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) Will Distribute Dividends

Analyst Opinion:

The company will distribute dividends of Rp585 billion (52.86% P/O ratio vs 2017: 57.08%; 2016: 27.58%; 2015: 34.09%) or equal to Rp50/share. The cum date (Regular and Negotiation market) is on Sep 5th 2018 with a payment date on Sep 24th 2018. Based on Monday Sep 3rd 2018 closing price of Rp2,230 then the dividend yield was calculated at 2.24% (2017: 3.85%; 2016: 1.03%; 2015: 2.27%). Meanwhile JPFA 6M18 result was quite favorable with the rising operating profit and net profit of 111.8% YoY and 146.2% YoY consecutively amid the declining revenues of -1.32% YoY. We see that JPFA’s sales volume may pick up in this second semester along with the uptrend ASP (average selling price) in the industry. However, we still see a potential risk from the strengthening USD against IDR because of the company’s dependency on imported raw material. Currently, JPFA stock is traded at PE of 15.8x and PBV of 2.91x while its peers average has PE of 20x and PBV of 15.8x. The stock price has been appreciated by 71.5% as of YTD2018. Recommendation: HOLD Rp2,370 (6.28% upside potential from Sep 3rd 2018 closing price of Rp2,230).

6M17 6M18 YoYRevenue 14,132 16,704 18.20%Gross Profit 2,467 3,807 54.30%Operating Income 990 2,097 111.83%Net Income 450 1,108 146.23%EPS (IDR) 40.00 97.00 142.50%Gross Margin 17.46% 22.79% 30.54%Operating Margin 7.01% 12.56% 79.21%Net Margin 3.18% 6.63% 108.32%

FY17 6M18Total Assets 19,920 21,993 Total Debt 11,298 12,426 Total Equity 8,622 9,567 DER (x) 1.31 1.30

JPFA (IDR bn)

Analyst: Dessy Lapagu ([email protected])



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RESEARCH Equity

TARGET PRICE



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RESEARCH Equity

TARGET PRICE



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RESEARCH Equity

RESEARCH TEAM Phone : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax : +62 21 57935831 Email : [email protected] Website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id

Norico Gaman (Head of Research Division) [email protected] Ext: 3934 Investment Strategy

Maxi Liesyaputra (Head of Equity Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 3968 Construction, Property, Infrastructure, Cement

Ariawan (Head of Fixed Income Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 2098 Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond

Andri Zakarias Siregar (Head of Technical Analysis Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 2054 Market Strategy, Currency, Commodities, Bond & Stocks

Thennesia Debora (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 2123 Transportation, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Plantation, Health Care

Dessy Lapagu (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 2051 Poultry, Crops, Fishery, Retail, Coal Mining, Pharmaceutical

Ahmad Hapiz (Fixed Income Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 3978 Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond

R. Venia Allani Meissalina (Research Analyst/Assistant) [email protected] Ext: 2050 Data Administrator

Indah Lestari Permata H. (Research Analyst/Assistant) [email protected] Ext: 2073 Data Administrator



8

RESEARCH Equity

EQUITY TEAM CM : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax No : +62 21 57935831 Anthon Suryasaputra ext. 3973 [email protected] Head of Equity Division (Pjs)

Entis Sutisman ext. 3945 [email protected] Head of Sales Equity

Teguh Hendro Karno ext. 3948 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader

Yulinda Yusran ext. 3950 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader

Dharmawan Prasetyo ext. 3916 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader

Putri Erinasari ext. 3920 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader

Fian Pusparini ext. 3958 [email protected] Head of Domestic Equity Sales

Dini Desita ext. 3981 [email protected] Domestic Equity Sales

Danovan Yazir ext. 3929 [email protected] Domestic Equity Sales

Jufrani Amsal ext. 3957 [email protected] Head of Channel Distribution Division

Fahma Riniarti ext. 3917 [email protected] Head of Channel Development

P. Sariningsih ext. 3984 [email protected] Head of Branch Supervision

Teuku Hafez ext. 2084 [email protected] Branch Manager Mangga Dua, Jakarta

Hapsari ext. 2078 [email protected] Branch Manager Puri Indah, Jakarta

Fadjar Harjo Suseno ext. 2111 [email protected] Branch Manager Central Park, Jakarta

M. Yasrul ext. 2081 [email protected] Branch Manager Wisma Bumiputera

Fahmi Lubis ext. 2079 [email protected] Branch Manager Bandung

Rifaat Annur ext. 2091 [email protected] Branch Manager Yogyakarta

Agus Purwanto ext. 2090 [email protected] Branch Manager Solo

Achmad Ridwan ext. 2088 [email protected] Branch Manager Surabaya

Edith Febriana ext. 2082 [email protected] Branch Manager Malang

Ni Nyoman Citasti ext. 2080 [email protected] Branch Manager Denpasar

Nirmasari Nasution ext. 2083 [email protected] Branch Manager Medan

Ari Magdalena ext. 2086 [email protected] Branch Manager Palembang

Rini Wati ext. 2085 [email protected] Branch Manager Pekanbaru

Susan J Mengko ext. 2102 [email protected] Branch Manager Manado

Melisa ext. 2136 [email protected] Branch Manager Aceh

Yuniar Fariza D ext. 2064 [email protected] Branch Manager Banjarmasin

RESEARCH Equity

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Wisma Bumiputera Lt. 6 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 75 Jakarta 12910

Phone: (62-21) 2523349 Fax: (62-21) 2523350


BANDUNG Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan 3

Bandung - 40117 Phone: (62-22) 4213375

Fax: (62-22) 4220604 e-mail: [email protected]

YOGYAKARTA

Jl. Laksda Adisucipto 137, Yogyakarta - 55282 Phone: (62-274) 581001-584032


SOLO

Jl. Honggo Wongso No. 24, Surakarta Phone: (62-271) 729667, 730525


SURABAYA

Jl. Gubernur Suryo No. 36, Surabaya Phone: (62-31) 5320912


MALANG Jl. Buring No. 58, Malang

Phone: (62-341) 321214,321213,321430 Fax: (62-341) 356876


DENPASAR Komplek Pertokoan Diponegoro Megah Blok A5-6 Lantai 2

Jl. Diponegoro No. 100, Denpasar - Bali Phone: (62-361) 264376, 2753389


MEDAN

Jl. Pemuda No. 12, Medan - 20151 Phone: (62-61) 4579616


PALEMBANG

Jl. Jend. Sudirman 132, Palembang - 30126 Phone: (62-711) 361969


PEKANBARU

Jl. Riau, No. 124, Bank BNI Lt. 2, Pekanbaru Phone: (62-761) 46757, 839698


MANADO

BNI KLN Megamas, Lt. 3, Kawasan Mega Mas Blok I C1 Jl. Piere Tendean, No. 20, Manado

Phone: (62-431) 847256 Fax: (62-24) 847256


ACEH Kantor Cabang BNI Banda Aceh Lt.2

Jl. KH. Ahmad Dahlan No. 111, Banda Aceh Phone: (62-651) 31109

Fax: (62-651) 31107

BANJARMASIN Gd. Bank BNI Antasari Lt. 2

Jl. Pangeran Antasari No. 44 RT 008, Banjarmasin Phone: (62-511) 3253735


This document is not intended to be an offer, or a satisfaction of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BNI SEKURITAS or any other member of the BNI Group, including any other member of the BNI Group from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Dokumen ini tidak diperuntukan sebagai suatu penawaran, atau permohonan dari suatu penawaran, permintaan untuk membeli atau menjual efek dan segala hal yang berhubungan dengan efek (seperti efek yang disebutkan disini, atau dari emiten yang sama, dari waran atau hak memesan efek atau kepentingan lain dari efek tersebut). Seluruh informasi dan opini yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini dengan cara baik telah dihimpun dari atau berasal dari sumber-sumber yang dapat dipercaya dan diandalkan. Tidak ada pengatasnamaan atau jaminan, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung dari BNI SEKURITAS atau pun pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI, termasuk pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI dari mana dokumen ini dapat diperoleh, terhadap keakuratan atau kelengkapan dari informasi yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini. Seluruh pendapat dan perkiraan dalam laporan ini merupakan pertimbangan kami pada tanggal tertera dan dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan.

tuesday, 4 september 2018 d a i ly r e p o r t research … · 2018. 9. 4. · tuesday, 4 september...

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