tsunami hazards on the east and gulf coasts
DESCRIPTION
Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts. Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E. NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research RIC 2009. Overview. Research Goals Overview of program Available products. Research Goals. Better understanding for all US coasts Development of a source database - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E.NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
RIC 2009
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Overview
• Research Goals
• Overview of program
• Available products
3
Research Goals
• Better understanding for all US coasts• Development of a source database• Integration of landslide modeling• Input for probable maximum tsunami
(PMT) hazard levels• PTHA (probabilistic) where appropriate• Incorporation into regulatory guidance
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NRC RESEARCH
Pacific Coast
East Coast
Gulf Coast
Hawaii
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Damage comes from…• Wave inundation
• Drawdown (important for plants)
• Floating debris
• Scour
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Size of Tsunami (m)
Rec
urre
nce
Inte
rval
(yr
)
(ann
ual p
roba
bilit
y of
exc
eede
nce)
-1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1
10 100 1000
Distant Earthquakes
Local Earthquakes
Landslides
Asteroid Impact
Volcanoes
Idealization of size-frequency relationship of tsunami sources
Power et al., 2005
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Sources Addressed
• Near-field seismic
• Far-field seismic
• Near-field landslide
• Far-field landslide
• NOT:– Asteroid Impacts– Volcanic
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Research Plan
1. Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (completed - first USGS report)
2. Targeted field work, additional analyses, additional modeling (second USGS report)
3. Updating NOAA models for landslide sources, global modeling
4. Hazard map development
5. PTHA
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Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (2008) ML082960196
(IJMG special publication)
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Near Field Landslides
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Currituck Landslide
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Currituck Landslide
0 100 200 300 KM
-40
-20
0
20
40
Met
ers
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Existing Data
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Far-Field Landslide Sources EUS
• Cumbre Vieja, Canary Islands
• Glaciated margins of northern Europe and Canada– Storegga landslide, Norway– Eastern Scotian margin (0.15 MYA)– 1929 Grand Banks landslide
• The mid-Atlantic ridge
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Canary and Hawaiian Islands
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Lituya Bay
1,700 feet
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• West of Gibraltar– 1755 Lisbon– 1761 Earthquake
and Tsunami
• The Northeast
Caribbean– Puerto Rico Trench– Hispaniola Trench– Northern Panama
Far-Field Seismic Sources
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Caribbean Plate
Far-Field Seismic Sources
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Modeling Sources
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Southern Caribbean Subduction Zone
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Global Modeling & Mapping
• NOAA to use UGSG source information to add landslide capability that works with global (MOST) model
• NOAA modeling addresses “linear” part of analyses• Site-specific inundation modeling performed
separately
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Advanced Methods
• PTHA = Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments
• Focus of significant US research efforts
• Techniques analogous to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which are the basis of US NRC seismic hazard guidance
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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard
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Questions