TSUNAMI…TSUNAMI…““El Peligro Olvidado !”El Peligro Olvidado !”

The Forgotten DangerThe Forgotten Danger ! !““Assessing ‘Risk-to-Life’ from Tsunamis Assessing ‘Risk-to-Life’ from Tsunamis

in the Caribbean”in the Caribbean”

Japan Tsunami, Mar 11, 2011; Indian Ocean Tsunami, Dec. 26, 2004; Haitian Earthquake, Jan. 12, 2010

UNESCO IOC/SC-IOCARIBE XI MeetingMay 18, 2011, Univ. of Miami, Key Biscayne, FL USA

Bill Proenza, Regional Director, National Weather Service, Southern U.S.

Western U.S. Central U.S.

Southern U.S.w/ 27% of NWS offices

Eastern U.S.

Alaska Region

Pacific Region

Hawaii & Guam

National Weather Servicehas only six regions & largest CONUS regions in most of government.

Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands

2

Japan Tsunami – March 11, 2011

Despite Infrequency, 168 Years of Deadly Caribbean TsunamisDespite Infrequency, 168 Years of Deadly Caribbean Tsunamis

Fatalities1842 Haiti 300+1853 Venezuela 600+1867 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 231882 Panama 75+1906 Jamaica 5001918 Puerto Rico 1401946 Dominican Republic(1) 17901946 Dominican Republic(2) 752010 Haiti 7

TOTAL 3510 +

Ref: Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (2003: ISBN 1-4020-1717-0); Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120; PRSN on Haiti,2010

The Caribbean has many tsunami-genic The Caribbean has many tsunami-genic sources, most of them short-fused (nearby)…sources, most of them short-fused (nearby)…

• EarthquakesEarthquakes (tectonic subduction zones & numerous faults)

• LandslidesLandslides (continental shelves, PR trench, coastal slides

• VolcanoesVolcanoes(submarine & land)

• Tele-tsunamisTele-tsunamis (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)

The Caribbean Situation !The Caribbean Situation !• Last major deadly tsunami(s) was

in 1946, at the Dominican Republic: 1865* deaths.

• Since 1946, tremendous post WW-II coastal population growth has occurred across the Caribbean along with explosive tourism .

• Therefore, if we use Caribbean’s historical tsunami deaths, it will greatly understate the current 21st century potential loss of life!

• So, how do we assess our current potential loss of life from tsunamis?

*Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition)

NW

S S

outh

ern

Reg

ion

http://www.srh.noaa.gov

Assessing: Risk to Life

*Risk (potential loss of life) = Hazard Frequency x

Amount of Exposure x Mortality Rate (%)

R = HF x AE x MR

*Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

NW

S S

outh

ern

Reg

ion

http://www.srh.noaa.gov

Applied to Caribbean tsunamis:

Hazard Frequency: historical rate Exposure: current number of “beach

dwellers” in harm’s wayMortality Rate: percent death rate

*HAZARD FREQUENCY

(history based)

*EXPOSURE (people at the

beach)

*MORTALITY (2-meter fatality rate…a percent)

TODAY’s RISK TO LIFE

*Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

The risk to life from tsunamis has increased dramatically with coastal population increases and tourism growth.

Here we see the port at Charlotte Amalie Bay, St. Thomas

20 Foot tsunami, November 17, 1867

Same bay in St. Thomas today with the lives of 25,000 tourists & residents at risk !

30 people lost their lives on November 18, 1867 in a 20 ft tsunami. Today there are as much as 25,000 people at risk around the Bay because of cruise ships. Almost all these people are in the tsunami inundation zone around the bay, docks, beaches and shops.

October 11, 1918, a Mona Passage earthquake caused October 11, 1918, a Mona Passage earthquake caused a 5 - 20 foot tsunami in western PR killing about 140 a 5 - 20 foot tsunami in western PR killing about 140

Modified after Reid and Taber, 1919

R-F Intensity Scale

2010 Risk to Life:~30,000 around Mayagüez vicinity

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami

Caribbean and Alaska Coastal Risks

Est’d Events

per century

Beach Water Temp

°F

Est’dDaily

Beach Atten-dance

Impact with only 5% Loss of Life

Prior

Risk

Today’Actua

l Risk

to Life

Caribbean: U.S. and Neighbors

2 events per

century (*2,*3)

Warm (80+°F)

(*1)

500K

(*4)

25,000 per event

50,000 per century

High Very High

State of Alaska

5 events per

century (*2)

Frigid (45- °F)

(*1)

4K

(*4)

200 per event

1000 per century

High High

Potential Loss of Life, 50 times greater at Caribbean Beaches! (K = a thousand e.g. 4K means 4,000 people)

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami

Caribbean and Hawaii Coastal Risks

Est’d Events

per century

Beach Water Temp

°F

Est’dDaily

Beach Atten-dance

Impact with only 5% Loss of Life

Prior Risk

Today’

Actual

Risk to Life

Caribbean: U.S. and Neighbors

2 events per

century (*2,*3)

Warm (80+°F)

(*1)

500K

(*4)

25,000 per event

50,000 per century

High Very High

State of Hawaii

5 events per

century (*2)

Warm (80°F)

(*1)

100K

(*4)

5000 per event

25,000 per century

High Very High

Both have a “Very High” Loss of Life potential ! (K= a thousand e.g. 100K means 100,000 people)

Other sources of data and footnotes.Other sources of data and footnotes.

• *1 – NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures.

• *2 - NOAA National Geophysical Data Center.

• *3 - Landers, Lockridge, Whiteside, O’Loughlin.

• *4 – Potential loss of life exposures values are estimates from the World Tourism Organization, Tourism Market Trends, 2006 Edition and tourism numbers from state government or tourism sources from Alaska, Hawaii etc.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov

Since 1842: Caribbean (PR, USVI & Neighbor Nations) with only 1/6 the area had six (6) times more tsunami deaths than northeastern corner of

the “Pacific Rim” (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of Canada & US)!

1842-2010: 579 deaths

1842-2010:

3510+ deaths

History and Today:A sobering summary !

History and Today:A sobering summary !

Comparing 168 years of History…

– …the Caribbean is 1/6 the area of our northeastern Pacific rim… (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of Canada & US)…

– …yet, the Caribbean has produced 6 times more tsunami deaths !

– But Today, the Caribbean Basin has a much greater population of coast/beach residents and tourists at risk to nearby… short-fused, very local tsunami-genic sources !

More Sobering ConclusionsMore Sobering Conclusions

…The Indian Ocean and Caribbean have much in common:

– Attractive climate and year-round warm waters

– Large beach/coastal tourism (still growing)

– Relatively flat beach/coastal topography

– Infrequency... NOAA Geophysical Data Center says our Caribbean Basin has had 8% of the world’s tsunami events and the Indian Ocean, 7%.

…such similar infrequency did not protect Indian Ocean nations from their horrific tsunami loss of life (12/26/04) estimated around 250 thousand people !

Caribbean Tsunami Warning Services – Interim & FutureCaribbean Tsunami Warning Services – Interim & Future

– Very good Interim Tsunami alerts & information services: Caribbean nations from Pacific Tsunami Warning Center; PR & USVI, from Alaska TWC.

– A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center (CTWC) co-located at Puerto Rico Seismic Network offers more regional expertise, cultural insight, faster warnings.

– Future: the US is undergoing a phased-in CTWC implementation process

– Now: The National Weather Service appointed a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program Manager at Mayaguez in February, 2010.

A “tsunami-ready” Nation A “tsunami-ready” Nation avoids having to learn from avoids having to learn from

tragedy !tragedy !

Bill Proenza, Regional DirectorNational Weather Service, Southern U.S.A.

bill.proenza@noaa.govOffice: 817-978-1000