TSUNAMITSUNAMI““El Peligro Olvidado”El Peligro Olvidado”

The Forgotten Danger !The Forgotten Danger !A Risk-to-Life Assessment:A Risk-to-Life Assessment:

The Very High Caribbean Risk The Very High Caribbean Risk

UNESCO IOC/ICG Caribbean Tsunamis San Juan, Puerto Rico, 11/29-30/06

Bill Proenza, DirectorNational Hurricane CenterNational Weather Service

Miami, FL

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Caribbean Overview ““El Peligro Olvidado”El Peligro Olvidado”, “, “The Forgotten DangerThe Forgotten Danger”” … …An appropriate Spanish characterization for a deadly An appropriate Spanish characterization for a deadly

phenomena with a phenomena with a disarming low frequencydisarming low frequency. .

BeachesBeaches are most vulnerable to loss of lifeare most vulnerable to loss of life.. Just a 2- Just a 2-meter tsunami brings terribly high mortality near sea-level. meter tsunami brings terribly high mortality near sea-level.

The Caribbean’s lesson from the catastrophic Indian The Caribbean’s lesson from the catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami:Ocean tsunami: despite tsunami infrequency, large despite tsunami infrequency, large coastal populations & explosive tourism (attractive warm coastal populations & explosive tourism (attractive warm seas) results in a potential for seas) results in a potential for enormous loss of lifeenormous loss of life. .

A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center is the pillar of A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center is the pillar of an effective warning system and helps motivate multi-an effective warning system and helps motivate multi-national commitment to preparedness and response !national commitment to preparedness and response !

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Assessing Risk

*Risk to life = Hazard frequency x Exposure x Mortality rate

Applied to tsunamis:Hazard: historical frequency (or probability)

Exposure: people in harm’s wayMortality rate: expected death rate

*Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

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Assessing Actual Risk !We need to assess current vulnerability to determine actual risk. Thus we must

add today’s population exposure to tsunami history and frequency to properly assess relative risks.

*Probability of occurrence of

hazard

*Measures of vulnerability

and exposure

*Actual Risk assessment

Better tsunami program

decisions

*Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.^University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez

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Caribbean Tsunami Fatalities in the last 165 Years

Date Place Fatalities

1842 Haiti 300+

1853 Venezuela 600+

1867 Virgin Islands 23

1882 Panama 75+

1906 Jamaica 500

1918 Puerto Rico 140

1946 Dominican Republic(1) 1790

1946 Dominican Republic(2) 75

Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition) and Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120

3503 TOTAL

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Volcanoes, tectonic boundaries & faults provide many tsunami

sources in the Caribbean

Caribbean Tsunamis Last major Western Atlantic basin Last major Western Atlantic basin

tsunami event(s): August, 1946; tsunami event(s): August, 1946; lives lost: 1790 +75 = 1865*lives lost: 1790 +75 = 1865*

Since then, population shifts to Since then, population shifts to Caribbean coastal communities Caribbean coastal communities and “explosive” tourism has taken and “explosive” tourism has taken place (USA alone has millions of place (USA alone has millions of citizens vacationing annually).citizens vacationing annually).

Assessing risks based just on Assessing risks based just on

historical deaths, greatly historical deaths, greatly understates understates today’stoday’s potential loss potential loss of life from Caribbean tsunamis.of life from Caribbean tsunamis.

Despite coastal populations at Despite coastal populations at risk being so much less in the risk being so much less in the past, we know at least 3503 past, we know at least 3503 lives* were lost in the Caribbean lives* were lost in the Caribbean Basin since 1842 (165 years). Basin since 1842 (165 years).

*Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition)

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Tsunami deaths since 1842 in two key areas, the northeastern Pacific (Alaska, Hawaii, West Coast States) & the Caribbean Basin (includes Puerto Rico & US Virgin Islands). The Caribbean basin with only 1/5 the area has 6x more deaths !

1842-2006: 579 deaths

1842-2006:

3503+ deaths

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Most Caribbean tsunamis come from short-fused nearby sources

Earthquakes Earthquakes (many subduction (many subduction areas/faults exist in areas/faults exist in the Caribbean)the Caribbean)

Landslides Landslides ((continental shelfs continental shelfs and trenches)and trenches)

Submarine and Submarine and Land Land VolcanoesVolcanoes

Tele-tsunamis Tele-tsunamis (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)1, 1755)

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + TsunamiToday’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + Tsunami

Beach area population and annual tourism

Est’d Freq.

Beach Water Temp

°F

Est’dDaily

Beach Atten-dance

Impactwith a 10%

Loss of Life

Prior Simple

Risk

Today’s Actual Risk to

Life

Caribbean Rgn Nationspopulation

64,500K with 100,000K visits (*4)

2/100 yrs

(*3)

Warm (80+°F)

(*1)

500K

(*4)

50K per event or

100K per

century

High Very High

Alaska Population: 650K with 1,725K visits (*4)

4/100 yrs

(*2)

Frigid (45 °F

or less) (*1)

5K

(*4)

½ K per event or 2K per century

High High

Caribbean beaches have a potential loss of life exposure 50 times greater per century. (K = a thousand e.g. 100K means 100,000 people)

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + TsunamiToday’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + Tsunami

Beach area, population and annual tourism

Est’d Freq.

Beach Water Temp

°F

Est’dDaily

Beach Atten-dance

Impactwith only 10%

Loss of Life

Prior Simple

Risk

Today’s Actual Risk to

Life

Caribbean Rgn Nationspopulation

64,500K with 100,000K visits (*4)

2/100 yrs

(*3)

Warm (80+°F)

(*1)

500k

(*4)

50K per event or 100K per century

High Very High

State of Hawaii population 1,265K with 63,240K visits (*4)

4/100 yrs

(*2)

Warm (80°F)

(*1)

100k

(*4)

10K per event or 40K per century

High Very High

Both have a “very high” potential loss of life exposure. (K = a thousand e.g. 40K means 40,000 people)

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + TeleTsunamiToday’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + TeleTsunami

Beach area & history glimpse

Est’d Freq.

Beach Water Temp

°F

Est’dDaily

Beach Attend-

ance

Impactwith only 10%

Loss of Life

Prior Simple

Risk

Today’s Actual Risk to

Life

CaribbeanRegion (last events: 1755 & 1761) (*3)

1/250 yrs

(*3)

Warm (80+°F)

(*1)

500K

(*4)

50K per event or 20K per century

Low High

3 West CoastStates (last event 1964) (*2)

1/100 yrs

(*2)

Cold (65°F)

(*1)

100K

(*4)

10K per century

High High

Both have a “high” potential loss of life exposure per century. (K = a thousand e.g. 20K here means 20,000 people)

Other sources of data and footnotes.Other sources of data and footnotes.

• *1 – NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures.

• *2 - NOAA National Geophysical Data Center.

• *3 - Landers, Lockridge, Whiteside, O’Loughlin.

• *4 – Potential loss of life exposures values are estimates from the populations and tourism numbers from state government or tourism sources from Alaska, Hawaii etc. The Caribbean numbers are from tourism sources.

A Few Reminders….A Few Reminders….

• Like the Indian Ocean, the year-round warm ocean temperatures of the Caribbean beaches are a significant attraction increasing the potential loss of life exposure of residents and tourists.

• Beaches with flat, low-lying topography maximize beach attendance while offering minimal opportunity to climb away from tsunami harm. Such flat topography is more prevalent in the Caribbean.

Some Sobering ThoughtsSome Sobering Thoughts

• The Indian Ocean and our Atlantic Basin have a lot in common besides warm waters and similar topography. NOAA Geophysical Data Center says our Caribbean Basin has had 8% of the world’s tsunami events and the Indian Ocean, 7%. Yet an Indian Ocean tsunami on 12/26/04 led to horrific loss of life...200 to 300 thousand deaths!

• In the past 165 years, the Caribbean basin with only 1/5 the area of our northeastern Pacific area, has had 6 times more tsunami deaths !

• The Caribbean basin has numerous nearby tsunami-genic sources. A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center is the pillar of an effective warning system and vital to further motivate multi-national commitment to preparedness and response. Anything less, could lead to unwarranted loss of life.

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Bill Proenza, DirectorNational Hurricane CenterNational Weather Service

Miami, Florida

Get this presentation at: http://www.hurricanes.gov