tsunami early warning system along the gujarat coast, india

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International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 6, Issue 11, Nov 2015, pp. 89-96, Article ID: IJCIET_06_11_010

Available online at

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=11

ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316

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___________________________________________________________________________

TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

ALONG THE GUJARAT COAST, INDIA

V. M. Patel

Civil Engineering Department, Government Polytechnic,

Palanpur – 385001, Gujarat, India

M. B. Dholakia

L.D. College of Engineering, Ahmedabad-380015, Gujarat, India

A. P. Singh

Institute of Seismological Research, Raisan, Gandhinagar- 382 009, Gujarat, India

ABSTRACT

The great Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) of 26th December, 2004, was

rated as the world’s second largest recorded earthquake. The tsunami was

considered as one of the deadliest natural hazards in the history, killing over

225,000 people in fourteen countries. In response to this disaster, the

government of India took up the task of establishing an Early Warning System

for Tsunamis. The Makran coast is extremely vulnerable to tsunamis and

earthquakes due to the presence of three very active tectonic plates namely, the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. On 28 November 1945 at 21:56

UTC, a massive Makran earthquake generated a destructive tsunami in the

Northern Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The tsunami was responsible for

loss of life and great destruction along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran, India and

Oman. In this paper NAMI-DANCE numerical model has been used to

simulate 1945 Makran tsunamigenic source. In this study tsunami early

warning system is try to develop by modeling of various tsunami scenarios and

the worst case detect for location along coastal area of Gujarat, India. At the

time of event, the closest scenario is picked from the database for emergency

management of disaster and early warns to coastal community.

Key words: Tsunami Early Warning, Worst Case, Coast of Gujarat

Cite this Article: V. M. Patel, M. B. Dholakia and A. P. Singh. Tsunami

Early Warning System along the Gujarat Coast, India. International Journal of

Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(11), 2015, pp. 89-96.

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=11

V. M. Patel, M. B. Dholakia and A. P. Singh


1. INTRODUCTION

Earthquakes similar in magnitude to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake could occur in an

area beneath the Arabian Sea at the Makran subduction zone, according to recent

research published in Geophysical Research Letters. The Makran subduction zone is

potentially capable of producing major earthquakes, up to magnitude Mw 8.7-9.2

(Smith et al., 2013). In this study tsunami early warning system is try to develop by

modeling of various tsunami scenarios and the worst case detect for location along

coastal area of Gujarat, India. At the time of event, the closest scenario is picked from

the database for emergency management of disaster and early warns to coastal

community. The giant tsunami in the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004, claiming

more than 225,000 lives (Titov et al. 2005; Geist et al. 2006; Okal & Synolakis 2008,

Singh et al. 2012), has emphasized the urgent need for tsunami early warning systems

for various vulnerable coastlines around the world, especially for those neighbouring

the Indian Ocean. The second deadliest tsunami prior to 2004 in South Asia occurred

on 28 November 1945 (Heck 1947; Dominey-Howes et al. 2007; Heidarzadeh et al.

2007; Jaiswal et al. 2009; Hoffmann et al. 2013). It originated off the southern coast

of Pakistan and was destructive in the Northern Arabian Sea and caused fatalities as

far away as Mumbai (Berninghausen 1966; Quittmeyer & Jacob 1979; Ambraseys &

Melville 1982; Heidarzadeh et al. 2008; Jaiswal et al. 2009). Several researchers have

different estimates about the location of the earthquake epicentre. By recalculating the

seismic parameters of the 1945 earthquake, Byrne et al. (1992) suggested that the

epicentre was at 25.15º N and 63.48º E, which is used in the present study.

2. DATA USED AND TSUNAMI MODELING

In the present study, 6 tsunami forecast stations were selected for output of tsunami

simulation along the coast of India. Most of the tsunami forecast stations were

selected in such a way that sea depth is less than 10.0 m to better examine the tsunami

effect (Onat & Yalciner 2012). The bathymetry topography database for tsunami

modeling is developed from GEBCO 30 sec. The bound coordinates are selected 55° -

76° E longitudes and 10°– 30° N latitudes. The rupture parameters, as provided by

Byrne et al. (1992), were used to model the source of 1945 earthquake and finite

difference model. The most significant tsunamigenic earthquake in recent times was

that of 28 November 1945, 21:56 UTC (03:26 IST) with a magnitude of 8.3 (Mw),

used for numerical modeling. In order to assess the impact of tsunami along the

Western cost of India, simulation were performed for each potential source (I, II, III,

IV, V, VI,VII) for varying plausible range of strike angles , while other parameters

such as dip and rake angles, and failure depth, were maintained constant table 1.

Table 1 The rupture parameter of 1945 Makran earthquake

Source

Epicenter of

Earthquake

Fault

length

Fault

width

Strike

angle

Rake

angle

Dip

angle

Slip

magnitude

Focal

depth

Momen

t Uplift

Latitude Longitude (km) (km) ° ° ° (m) (km) (N m) (m)

Source-I 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 190 90 15 7 15 4.2x1021 3

Source-II 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 200 90 15 7 15 4.2x1021 3

Source-III 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 210 90 15 7 15 4.2x1021 3

Source-IV 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 220 90 15 7 15 4.2x1021 3

Source-V 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 230 90 15 7 15 4.2x1021 3

Source-VI 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 240 90 15 7 15 4.2x1021 3

Source-VII 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 250 90 15 7 15 4.2x1021 3

Tsunami Early Warning System Along The Gujarat Coast, India


In this study, the NAMI DANCE was used for simulation and efficient

visualization of tsunamis, and understanding and investigation of tsunami generation

and propagation mechanisms. This code is developed by Profs. Andrey Zaytsev,

Ahmet Yalciner, Anton Chernov, Efim Pelinovsky and Andrey Kurkin in

collaboration with Ocean Engineering Research Center, Middle East Technical

University, Turkey and Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Science,

Russia, especially for tsunami modelling (Yalciner et al. 2006b). The initial wave

amplitudes (elevation and depression) for each source was computed using Okada’s

(1985) method, for these source alternatives are also given in figure 1. Initial wave

amplitudes (both positive and negative) are almost the same for all source

alternatives: the water elevation in the source is about 3 m, and the depression is about

1 m.

Figure 1 Initial seafloor deformation for seven source alternatives

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Tsunami snapshots show that the 1945 Makran event affected all the neighboring

countries including Iran, Oman, Pakistan, and India (Figure 2). Tsunami snapshots

(Figure 2) show the estimated wave propagation at t= 0, 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150

minutes after the tsunamigenic earthquake, respectively. It is also observed that the

distance from epicenter to Mumbai is less than Goa, but the arrival time of the first

tsunami wave at the Mumbai is more than Goa. It could be due to the fact that

Mumbai offshore is shallower that Goa and also due to the directivity of tsunami

wave propagation. It is well known that most of the tsunami’s energy travels

perpendicular to the strike of the fault which is due to directivity (Ben-Menahem and

Rosenman 1972; Singh et al., 2012, Patel et al., 2014).

The spatial distributions of maximum positive amplitudes of tsunami wave are

presented in figure 3 (a-g) for seven source alternatives. Simulation results of

maximum positive amplitude (table 2) and arrival time of first wave (table 3) clearly

indicate the worse case at different gauges location along western part of India.

Simulation results from figure 3, table 3 and table 4, it is clear that source-II, III, IV

are worst case for (Kutch, Okha and Dwarka); source-IV, V ,VI are worst case for



(Porbandar, and Mumbai); and source-V,VI, VII are worst case for Goa, along

western coast of India. Tsunami early warning system is try to develop by modeling

of various tsunami scenarios and the worst case detect for location along coastal area

of Gujarat, India. At the time of event, the closest scenario is picked from the database

for emergency management of disaster and early warns to coastal community. The

simulated results are corroborated with the previous researchers in the same region

(Page et al., 1979; Ambraseys and Melville, 1982; Heidarzadeh et al., 2008).

Figure 2 Results of the tsunami generation and propagation modeling

Table 2 Maximum positive amplitude by variation in strike angle

Table 3 Arrival time of first wave by variation in strike angle



a.

b.

c.

d.



f.

g.

h.

Figure 3: Spatial distributions of maximum positive amplitudes for seven different

source alternatives

4. CONCLUSION

The use of numerical modeling to determine the potential run-ups and inundation

from a local or distant tsunami is recognized as useful and important tool, since data

from past tsunamis are usually insufficient to plan future disaster mitigation and

management plans. It is well know that tsunami early warning system involves critical

analysis of historical tsunamigenic events, tsunami generation, propagation,

innundation and amplification. The criteria for generation early warning system are

based on the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake, travel time (i.e. time taken by

the tsunami wave to reach the particular coast), run-up and likely inundation.

NAMIDANCE numerical model has been used to estimate travel time and run-up

height for a particular earthquake. Since the model cannot be run at the time of an

event, due to large computing time as well as due to non-availability of required fault

parameters in real-time, a database of pre-run scenarios is essential. In this study

tsunami early warning system is try to develop by modeling of various tsunami



scenarios and the worst case detect for location along coastal area of Gujarat, India.

At the time of event, the closest scenario is picked from the database for emergency

management of disaster and early warns to coastal community.

5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors thank Profs Andrey Zaytsev, Ahmet Yalciner, Anton Chernov, Efim

Pelinovsky and Andrey Kurkin for providing NAMI-DANCE software and for their

valuable assistance in tsunami numerical modelling of this study. Profs. Nobuo Shuto,

Costas Synolakis, Emile Okal, Fumihiko Imamura are acknowledged for invaluable

endless collaboration. The VMP is grateful to Dr. B. K. Rastogi, Director General,

Institute of Seismological Research (ISR) for permission to use of ISR library and

other resource materials. APS is thankful to Director General, ISR, for permission and

encouragement to conduct such studies for the benefit of science and society.

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AUTHOR’S BIOGRAPHY

VIJENDRAKUMAR M. PATEL received the B.E. Civil

Engineering, M.E. Civil Engineering and Ph.D. in Engineering &

Technology (Thesis Submitted). He published more than 20

research papers in reputed SCI Journal, International Journals and

International/National Conferences. He has presented many

research papers in International/National Conferences/

Symposiums. He has more than 10 years of research and academic

experience at Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ganpat

University, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University (PDPU) and

Government Polytechnic. He has supervised many PG students.