tsunami data sharing and integration...tsunami data sharing and integration: tsunami mitigation...

AAAS Science Diplomacy – May 5, 2016

NOAA Satellite and Information Service | National Centers for Environmental Information

Tsunami Data Sharing and Integration:

Tsunami Mitigation

Paula Dunbar1

Paula Dunbar1, Kelly Stroker2, Nicolas Arcos1, George Mungov2, Aaron Sweeney2, and Kelly Carignan2 1NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Boulder, United States

2Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, United States,

NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION AAAS Science Diplomacy – 5 May 2016

Overview

• Brief introduction to Tsunamis and NOAA/NCEI

• NOAA/NCEI Tsunami data

• Significant/Mega Tsunamis

• History of Tsunami Warning Systems

– Need for scientific diplomacy

– Where we are today

• How NOAA/NCEI supports the International Tsunami Warning System

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• Tsunamis are a dangerous flooding hazard

• Created by abrupt disturbances of the ocean – earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, and meteors

• Spread throughout the ocean basin and deliver death and destruction to coastal inhabitants 1000s of km from the source

• In 1965 the United Nations through the IOC/UNESCO formed the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific to provide education and warning to Pacific nations

• Today most coastlines of the globe are part of the IOC/UNESCO Global Tsunami Warning System

• Tsunami has arguably been the only natural disaster that has been addressed so effectively at an international scale

Tsunamis


NOAA/NCEI/WDS

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) – formerly known as the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) – provide long-term archive, data management, and access to global

tsunami data

• Global historical tsunami data, damage photos, water level data from NOAA observational networks, and DEM development


The historical tsunami database is a scientifically curated list of historical tsunami source events and tsunami water height locations throughout the world that range in date from 2000 B.C. to the present.

• Authoritative source for historical tsunami event data

• Database is continuously updated based on new sources

Historical Tsunami Data Know the past to better understand the future


Historical Tsunami Data Supports

• Operations, Mitigation

– Tsunami Warning Centers • Decision-making during an event • Watch, Warning, Evacuation • Media Response

– IOC/UNESCO and US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) • Develop Inundation and Evacuation Maps

and Plans • Tsunami Hazard Assessment – US and

Worldwide


Historical Tsunami Data Supports

• Tsunami Research

– Model Validation

• Landuse / Codes / Engineering Criteria

– Tsunami effects on structures (buildings, power plants)

• Education

– How often and where have events occurred

Onagawa 2011 Tsunami


Source Documents for Historical Tsunami Events

• Over 3,000 documents describe damage and effects from tsunami, earthquake, and volcano events. Types of documents:

– Diaries, ships logs, newspaper reports

– Tsunami, Earthquake, Volcano catalogs

– NOAA National Weather Service Tsunami Warning Centers

– US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center

– NOAA/IOC/UNESCO International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC)

– Web articles, e-mail, journal articles

– International Tsunami Survey Teams

2000 BC Syrian Tsunami

described on cuneiform tablet


International Tsunami Survey Teams (ITST)

• Since 1992 - 34 designated as ITSTs

• Understand tsunamis

• Develop tools and programs to mitigate tsunami effects

• Data provided to country

• Train local scientists

>10,000 points in NCEI database from ITSTs


Trusted Data Source

NCEI data cited hundreds of times annually. Citations range from Science Magazine and National Geographic to peer-reviewed articles.

“the NGDC tsunami database remains the most frequently cited source of historical tsunami information”

- from : Gusiakov, V.K. (2009), Tsunami history: Recorded, In: The Sea, Vol.15, Tsunamis, Robinson & Bernard (Eds.), Harvard University Press, USA.

Folger, T. 2012. The calm before the wave: When and where will the next tsunami hit? National Geographic Magazine. Map sources: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center (NGDC/WDC) Global Historical Tsunami Database

C. von Hillebrandt-Andrade, Science 341, 966 (2013)


Written Record & International Scientific Collaboration

• 1700 Orphan Tsunami

– 1700 - Historic written records from Japan

– 1980s - Paleoseismic data from U.S. west coast

– 1996 - Confirmed Cascadia earthquake was the source of the 1700 Japan tsunami

• 1952 Mw 9.0 Kamchatka Earthquake and Tsunami

– 1952 – a few deaths in the Kurils and Kamchatka, damage in Hawaii

– Closely guarded state secret until fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 • 2003 articles - Tsunami eradicated the naval base at

Severo-Kuril’sk – 10,000 to 17,000 deaths

Atwater, et al, 2005

Severo-Kurilsk. (Credit: V. Kaystrenko, Russia)


Completeness of Pacific Regional Tsunami Catalogs

Credit: V.K. Gusiakov, Tsunami Laboratory, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk Russia


Tsunami Source Events, 2000 B.C. to Present

• Date, location, latitude/longitude, cause (e.g. earthquake (81%), volcanic eruption, landslides), maximum water height, socio-economic data (deaths, damage), references

249 confirmed fatal tsunami events. Deadliest event:

2004 Sumatra with over 227,000

deaths

1,017 (confirmed) 1,230 (unconfirmed)


Tsunami Wave Observations

• Eyewitness, field survey, tide gauge, Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting Tsunamis (DART ®) - Location name, latitude/longitude, wave arrival time, water height, socio-economic (deaths, injuries, damage), references

25,000 observations


Mega-Tsunamis

Credit: B. Higman

Simeulue Is., mangrove damage, 2004 Tsunami

• 1556 China earthquake – 830,000 deaths • 1970 Bhola cyclone – 500,000 deaths • 2010 Haiti earthquake – 310,000 deaths


*converted to 2016 US dollars

*

Mega-Tsunamis

Credit: Getty

Fukushima, 2011 Tsunami

2011 Japan Tsunami is the most expensive natural disaster that has ever occurred


Date Source Location Local & Regional Distant

1755, Nov 1 Lisbon, Portugal 50,000 3

1837, Nov 7 Southern Chile 0 16

1868, Aug 13 Northern Chile 25,000 7

1877, May 10 Northern Chile 277 2,000

1883, Aug 27 Krakatau, Indonesia 34,417 1

1899, Jan 15 Papua New Guinea 0 Hundreds

1901, Aug 9 Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia 0 Several

1923, Feb 3 Kamchatka, Russia 2 1

1945, Nov 27 Makran coast, Pakistan 4,000 11

1946, Apr 1 Unimak Island, Alaska, USA 5 162

1957, Mar 9 Andreanof Islands, AK, USA 0 2

1960, May 22 Southern Chile 2,000 223

1964, Mar 28 Southern Alaska, USA 106 18

2004, Dec 26 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 175,827 52,072

2005, Mar 28 Sumatra, Indonesia 0 10

2011, Mar 11 Tohoku, Japan 18,455 2

2012, Mar 1

Haida Gwaii, British Columbia,

Canada 0 1

Estimated Dead or Missing

Tsunamis Causing Deaths >1000 km or > 3 hours from Source

(Teletsunamis)


Timeline – Tsunamis and Warning Centers

• 1946 April 1, Mw 8.6 Alaska – Alaska – 5 deaths, $0.25 million

– Hawaii – 159 deaths, $26 million

– California – 1 death, $0.01 million

– French Polynesia – 2 deaths

– Peru – 1 death

– New Zealand – minor damage

• 1948 - US established US Seismic Sea

Wave Warning System (US SSWWS) – Honolulu, Hawaii, 24-hr watch – warnings for Hawaii

• Seismograph stations (College, Sitka, Tucson); Tide gauge stations (Attu, Adak, Dutch Harbor, Sitka, Palmyra, Midway, Johnston, Hilo, Honolulu)

• 1952 - Japan established National Tsunami Warning Center

• 1957 - USSR established National Tsunami Warning Centers

April 1, 1946 tsunami water heights. Maximum runup

42 meters at Scotch Cap, Alaska, USA. (Credit NCEI)


Timeline – Tsunami and Warning Center

• 1960 May 22, Mw 9.5 Southern Chile – Chile – 2000 deaths, $500 million

– Hawaii – 61 deaths, $23.5 million

– California – 2 deaths, $1 million

– Japan – 139 deaths, $50 million

– Philippines – 21 deaths

– Alaska – minor damage

– Kamchatka, Russia – moderate damage

– French Polynesia – minor damage

– New Zealand – minor damage

– America Samoa - $0.05 million

• 1964 – Chile established National Tsunami Warning Center

Damage in Hilo, Hawaii. (Credit: USGS)

May 22, 1960 tsunami water heights. Maximum

runup 25 meters at Isla Mocha, Chile. (Credit NCEI)


Pacific Ocean Tsunami Warning System

• April 27-30, 1965, Honolulu, HI – Meeting organized by US Coast & Geodetic Survey on behalf of the IOC

– 12 Countries bordering the Pacific Ocean

• Canada, Chile, China, France, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Philippines, USA, USSR, W. Samoa

– International Organizations

• IOC, Tsunami Commission of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

– US SSWWS in Honolulu became headquarters of the International Pacific Tsunami Warning System

• 50th anniversary meeting held in Honolulu 2015

– 31 countries


Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System

• 2004 December 26 Mw 9.1 Indonesia

Indonesia 167,540 4452

Sri Lanka 35,322 1317

India 16,269 1023

Thailand 8,212 1000

Somalia 289 100

Maldives 108 470

Malaysia 75 500

Myanmar 61 500

Tanzania 13

Bangladesh 2 500

Seychelles 2 31

Yemen 2

South Africa 2

Madagascar 1

Kenya 1 100

Total 227,899 $9,992

CountryDeaths/

Missing

Damage in

Millions of $

December 26, 2004 tsunami water heights. Maximum runup

51 meters at Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia. (Credit NCEI)


• Four IOC/Intergovernmental Coordination Groups – IOTWS (2005) – 28 Member States

– CARIBE-EWS (2005) – 30 Member States

– NEAMTWS (2005) – 41 Member States

– PTWS (1968) – 46 Member States

Four Intergovernmental Coordination Groups for the tsunami warning systems (CARIBE-EWS, IOTWS, NEAMTWS, PTWS)

Global Tsunami Warning System


Seismic Data Available to Tsunami Warning Centers

• 1948 – 3 seismic stations in US

• 1965 – World Wide Standardized Seismograph Network – 120 stations - telex messages

• 1990s – submarine telecommunication cables & satellites

• Today: Real-time data from >500 Seismic Stations:

– 5-10 minutes - Initial messages advising of a potential tsunami threat

– 30 minutes – Quantitative tsunami forecast

Seismic Stations in 1999 Seismic Stations in 2015


Sea Level Data Available to Tsunami Warning Centers

• 1948 – 9 tide gauge stations in US SSWWS - telex messages from observers

• 1980s – Some coastal sea level gauges automated

• 1990s – Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART® ) - deployed in deep ocean and remotely transmitted

• Today: Near real-time data from >500 coastal sea level and deep-ocean stations

Sea Level Stations in 2015

DART®


NOAA/NCEI Tsunami Water Level Data

• Data Stewardship – Tide Gauge Data

• NWS - Tsunami Warning Centers • US NOS - CO-OPS • International (event specific)

– Deep-ocean Assessment & Reporting of Tsunamis (DART®)

• Real-time event data • Retrospective high-resolution data

– Marigrams

• Over 3,000 historic paper records from 30 countries

• Converted from analog to digital media

• Data Processing – Tidal constituents for TWC Operations

– Processed Tide and DART for research


NOAA/NCEI Tsunami Online Event Summaries

• Authoritative Event reports – Tsunami source & impact – Latest confirmed casualties – Past events in same region – Field surveys & photographs – Source documents

• DART & Tide Gauge data

• Tsunami-Travel-Time maps

DART

Onagawa

DMSP Red = power outage


NOAA/NCEI Digital Elevation Models

• NCEI develops DEMs to support – Tsunami forecasts and warnings

– Tsunami Inundation models

– Evacuation maps

• Training – in April 2016 NCEI scientists trained Canadians from three agencies on techniques to build DEMs for tsunami models – Requests from several countries for

this type of training

– Limitations: Bathymetric/Topo data and funding

Footprints of DEMs developed and accessible at NCEI

Over 200 DEMs have been developed since

2006 including high-resolution, community-

specific, regional and global models.


End-to-End Tsunami Warning System

ITIC, SeismicReady Consulting 2009 after Japan Cabinet Office 2005

DMO – Public Safety

Evacuate / All-Clear

Country Alert System

Natl / Local Govt

Emergercy Alert System & Mass Media

Public

TSUNAMI WARNING!

EVACUATE

TWC -

Science

EQ

Tsunami

Intl / Natl

• International data sharing and diplomacy improves all aspects of the system • Ultimately the goal is to save lives


Summary

NCEI and the co-located World Data Service for Geophysics continues to:

• Maintain and update a global historic tsunami event database

• Steward high-resolution coastal and deep-ocean water level data for tsunami research

• Develop high-resolution DEMs to support a variety of programs

• Look for partners to work with and to obtain data and information in their region to support these products

• Future – Tsunami Currents, Landslide Tsunami Sources, Meteotsunamis, Deterministic

and Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments


Thank you! National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

World Data Service for Geophysics

[email protected]

http://ngdc.noaa.gov