trump mobilizes his tea party- observant base, but at high cost · 2019-12-18 · fictional world...

Trump mobilizes his Tea Party-

observant base, but at high cost December 2019

1

Key Findings

• Trump‘s actions and impeachment has energized Trump’s base with

Evangelicals, Tea Party and Barr Catholics who form 65 % of GOP, but losing

ground with moderates and creating a daunting anti-Trump Democratic

voting bloc.

• Democrats are not being hurt because the impeachment attack is

dramatically weaker and motivating with Republicans, than attacks on the

Green New Deal and immigration.

• Republican base believes impeachment is all about the deep state and fake

news, with a quarter worried about divisiveness and lost peace of mind; 16%

wanting to wait and see the evidence.

• Only 11 % believe the Russians were the main actors in 2016, as Trump’s

fictional world view takes hold; more believe Ukraine helped Hillary Clinton.

• 13 % support impeachment, which rises to 17 percent after ads, to a third of

moderates, led by the women

2

Key Findings - continued• Trump’s waging an escalating war on immigrants, but the country is

rebelling, and he’s losing a third of Republicans. That his disrespect of

women and immigrants is fostering racism and hurting women raises very

serious doubts for over 20 percent.

• The GOP as an anti-abortion party loses moderates on gay marriage too.

• The GOP as an anti-government, pro-business party, loses moderates and

some McCain conservatives, particularly on regulation and the environment;

CEO excess and business profits brings out populist currents.

• The biggest divide is over the Tea Party style of politics, championed by

President Trump.

• Amash’s message on the constitution and Buttigieg’s message on changing

Washington and unity gets the broadest hearing among Republicans.

• Bottom line, Trump has not consolidated his own party that gives him only

85 % of the vote

Evangelical

Conservatives, 26%

Tea Party, 17%

Catholic Conservatives,

16%

Secular Conservatives,

18%

Moderate, 23%

3

Tea Party and devout now dominate GOP, but moderates now in

diminished role

Evangelical

Conservatives, 28%

Tea Party, 20%

Catholic

Conservatives,17%

Secular Conservatives,

18%

Moderates, 16%

2019 COMPOSITION OF GOP BASE2018 COMPOSITION OF GOP BASE

59% 65%

35%41%

* 2018 percentages reflecting combined database of 1,818 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independent (3-1-3 Rep)

from Democracy Corps phone surveys. 2019 percentages reflecting combined database of 1,192 3-1-3 Reps.

4

Impeachment effect

4

5263 59 66 60

7259

7059 58

3647

7684

7988

8086 88 89

7580

6775

10 8-10

5

Tea Party, Evangelicals & Catholics have rallied to defend Trump

How interested are you in the elections in November 2020 for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. You can choose any number between 1 and 10.

Secular Conservative

Interest to Vote- 2020

ModerateRepublican 2019

Catholic ConservativeTea PartyEvangelical

Trump Loyalists Not Trump Loyalists

Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec

6

Trump builds pro-Trump base with Evangelicals, Tea Party and

Catholics, but pushes away moderates and enrages Democrats Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

67 66 64 53296

87 95 90 95 9070

85

2

91

10 5 6 10 1330

Strong approve Strong disapprove

Trump Loyalists

+77+84 +85+90 +40


TRUMP APPROVAL

Moderate

Not Trump Loyalists

+77+85

July 2019

Catholic Conservative

Tea PartyEvangelicalRepublicanDemocrat

Base says all about deep state, but also weary of divisiveness

7

I'm sure you heard that after a whistleblower complaint, the White House released a transcript of President Trump's conversation with the

Ukrainian president when President Trump asks for a favor and to investigate whether Joe Biden's son was guilty of corruption. Which TWO of

the following captures your own feelings?

3

4

5

7

16

16

22

29

32

50

Shocked

Treasonous

Constitutional crisis

This goes beyond all bounds

Want to watch and wait to learn more

When will we have peace

I'm tuning out

Just even deeper partisan divisions

More fake news

Deep state wanting to make Trump fail

8

In focus groups, the Trump base, were deeply negative about the direction of

the country; the biggest reason is the division and polarization

It's less bipartisanship than I ever remember. It's more division in the political world and more

polarized, straight down the middle. (Tea Party man)

I've never felt, through the course of my life, like people want to be hiding. That you want to

disagree with everyone. It's a weird time it feels like. (Moderate GOP woman)

If you're a conservative, you speak out, you get shut down. If you're liberal, you speak out, it's

OK. That's how it does seem like it's going and he is tapping into that. And into those emotions

of people. (Secular conservative woman)

You’re embarrassed to even admit that you feel otherwise, because you don’t want to be

shamed for it or get into an argument with a friend or family member about it. (Moderate GOP

woman)

Our greatest strength used to be the fact that we could communicate to each other, that was

our greatest strength. (Independent man)

9

And just 11 % believe Russia intervened in 2016, as Trump’s fictional world

takes hold: twice as many say, Ukraine

115 8 10 10

212428

38

26

1610

65 64

54

6473

69

Republicans Evanlegical Tea Party Cathollic Secular Moderate

And regardless of whether or not you support the impeachment inquiry, which of the following statements comes closest to your view on the earlier investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election?

Russia vs Ukrainian Interference

Republicans Secular Conservative ModerateCatholic

ConservativeTea PartyEvangelical

Trump Loyalists Less Enthusiastic GOP

Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help the Trump campaign.

Ukraine intervened in the 2016 election to help the Clinton campaign

We really don't know who is mainly responsible for intervening in the 2016 election

13 1613 17

6 8 11 14 9 15 11 1625 31

74 70 85 81 79 78 79 76 75 68 53 47

87 8394 92 89 86 91 85 88 83 75 69

Strong Support Somewhat Support Strong Oppose Somewhat Oppose

10

Impeachment supported by 13 %, but ads push up with key segments,

moderates to to 31 %Do you support or oppose the Congress starting an impeachment inquiry for President Donald Trump?


Impeachment Support

Moderate

Republican 2019

-74 -66

Catholic ConservativeTea PartyEvangelical

Trump Loyalists Less Enthusiastic GOP

Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask

-84-88 -72-78 -70-82 -67-77 -38-50

Net: +8 Net: +4 Net: +6 Net: +12 Net: +10 Net: +12

After rule of law impeachment ads and Trump response, 9 point

rise in support for impeach with non-loyalist women

11

Do you support or oppose the Congress starting an impeachment inquiry for President Donald Trump?

Initial to final support for impeachment inquiry

Net Shifts

Consistent support

Consistent oppose

Shift toward support

Shift toward oppose

Net shift (twrd supp-twrd opp)

Total 11 81 6 2 5

Evangelical conservatives 4 90 4 2 2

Tea Party 9 84 5 2 3

Catholic conservatives 9 84 6 1 5

Secular conservatives 9 81 7 2 6

Moderates 22 66 9 3 6

Trump loyalist GOP 7 86 5 1 4

Less enthusiastic GOP 16 73 8 2 6

Loyalist men 6 89 4 1 3

Loyalist women 8 83 7 1 5

Less enthisiastic men 22 70 7 2 5

Less enthusiastic women 12 75 9 3 6

243732

243833

2846

39

2847

40

3048

41

444947

435048

4660

55

4860

55

4761

56

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Very serious doubts

12

Attacks on impeachment and Bidens, weakest and least motivatingThese are some things that Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are saying about the Democratic candidates running for president.

After each statement, please say whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind

about Democrats running for president.

(UKRAINE) Joe Biden's son got rich serving on the board of Ukraine's largest private gas company, even though it was under investigation by Ukrainian prosecutors. At the same time, Joe Biden used his role as Vice President to withhold millions in U.S. aid from Ukraine until they fired the prosecutor investigating his son's company. This is clear corruption, and it is time for transparency from Joe Biden

(IMPEACHMENT) Joe Biden promised Ukraine $1 billion if they fired the prosecutor investigating his son's company. And now that President Trump has asked Ukraine to investigate corruption, the Democrats are trying to impeach him by slinging false allegations, while their media lap dogs all follow along. The Democrats lost the last election, and now they are trying to steal this on

(GREEN NEW DEAL) The Democrats' Green New Deal is a ridiculous proposal with no way to pay

for it and it will kill millions of jobs. I will not stand for it. We will defend the environment, but we will

also defend American sovereignty, American prosperity, and we will defend American jobs. Next

they will call to eliminate all Planes, Cars, Cows, Oil, and the Military that would turn the United

States into a hermit nation

(OPEN BORDERS) No betrayal of American workers has been worse than the Democratic Party's

pursuit of open borders. Democrats won't do anything about border security, and people are coming

in by the thousands which means job losses, violent crime, drugs, and human trafficking. Our border

patrol, our law enforcement and our detention facilities are overwhelmed. As fast as we build them,

they fill up, and our hospitals, schools and public resources are overburdened. It is time to get

serious about border security

(HEALTHCARE) Obamacare has been a disaster and the Democrats have blocked the Trump

administration's efforts to fix it at every turn. The Democrats running for president want to end

private insurance and bring socialism to our country with their Medicare for All plan, but the Trump

administration has been hard at work with a new plan for putting the people back in charge with

more choice for better care at a far lower cost and we won't be taxing you into oblivion

13

Pushback on immigration and women

13

41 42 37 36 33 45 53

59 57 54 51 5259

67

13 14 16 15 14 15 12

18 17 20 19 19 17 15

Somewhat cool Very cool Somewhat warm Very warm

Immigrants to the U.S.

+41 +40 +34 +32 +42

Neutral: 21DK: 2

Neutral: 20DK: 6

Neutral: 21DK: 6

Neutral: 21DK: 8

Neutral: 22DK: 7

Neutral: 19DK: 5

Neutral: 14DK: 4

14

+33 +52

America rushes to embrace immigrants under assault from

President TrumpNow, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and ideas, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero

meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling.

Displaying results for registered voters nationally from Democracy Corps phone surveys

15

All factions of GOP more negative about immigrants, but a third “warm”

Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

16 16 22 14 11 15

31 31 37 3223

30

35 34 30 39 42 30

43 4335

4653

38

Very Warm (76-100) Warm (51-74) Very Cool (0-25) Cool (0-24)

+30+2 +14+12 +8


Immigrants to the U.S.

Moderate

+12

Republicans Evangelical Tea PartyCatholic

Conservative


Neutral: 26DK: 0

Neutral: 25DK: 1

Neutral: 28DK: 0

Neutral: 21DK: 0

Neutral: 23DK: 0

Neutral: 31DK: 0

14 13 15 16 14 13

32 31 31 35 28 31

28 29 24 33 31 21

43 45 41 4249

37

Total GOP Evangelical Tea Party Catholicconservative

Secularconservative

Moderate

Agree much more Agree somewhat more Agree much more Agree somewhat more

+6

Plurality of every faction believe immigrants are a burden, but a third say, “strengthen

our country.”

16

Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right?

Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care.

Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents.

+7 +21+10+14+11


17

Trump’s war on immigrants gone too far for some Republicans

I was just saying he was fine until that last sentence of our country is full. That's kind

of asinine. Our country is not full, go fly over the country. (Tea Party man)

I don't know that we're to do it. I don't know. I don't agree with him saying the

country's full, I don't necessarily think that's true. And that's divisive, and that's sort

of, because I don't agree, I think if people want to come here legally, they should be

allowed to come here legally. (Secular conservative woman)

Yeah, but he could’ve said it a different way. I love Trump. You know that. When he

said our country is full, that makes it sound like we’re not going to take in people.

(Catholic conservative woman)

151616

151616

151616

191718

171818

171818

222121

332830

333032

343032

352931

343132

343132

363133

Moderate GOPTrump Loyalist

Total


Total


Total


Total


Total


Total


TotalVery serious doubts

18

Strongest attack with GOP is disrespect of women and immigrantsNow you will read a few statements that some Republicans are saying about President Trump. After each statement, please say

whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about President Trump.

White working class (WWC) = white non college educated.

(TRADE WAR) America's great strength is in our freedom, our market economy, and our democratic

system. Our great prosperity has come from intelligent practices of free trade, but President Trump's

endless trade war runs counter to our free market values and endangers our prosperity in the long term.

(OBAMACARE) We have now had Obamacare for nearly a decade and you simply cannot take

millions of people off coverage without a backup plan ready to go. You shouldn't keep low wage

workers from getting on Medicaid. The president is creating chaos in the market which has pushed up

health care cost and it's time for Republicans to make it work right.

(TAX CUTS) President Trump helped pay for his signature 2018 tax cuts with a trillion dollar increase

in the national deficit, and he promised the tax cut would increase economic growth to 5% per year.

Two years later, the growth rate is back to 2%, exactly where it has been for the last 10 years.

(DISRESPECT) President Trump's disrespect for women and bullying and hatred toward

immigrants gives people permission to be rude and say racist things. Him being president is a set

back for women.

(MANUFACTURING) President Trump said he would restore U.S. manufacturing, but U.S.

manufacturing just shrank for the first time since 2009. Layoff announcements have surged this

year, and states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all reported overall job losses this

year. He's a big let down for working people

(ALLIES) President Trump has repeatedly broken our word and withdrawn from commitments to

our allies. The leaders of the world are watching this, not just our adversaries, but also our allies,

and it undermines our strength as a nation

(CORRUPTION) President Trump promised to be a voice for the forgotten Americans and tackle

corruption, but his tax cuts went almost totally to corporations and the top 1 percent who paid stock

bonuses, not higher wages. Now he is using the U.S. government and taxpayer money to enrich

himself and his family. Working people thought a President Trump would put them first.

19

Cracks on social liberalism

19

20

Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a

VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

4472

45 47 3818

59

8263 64

5133

20 8 15 15 26 3524

1018 20

3142


+21+45 +44+72 +9


Pro-Life Anti-Abortion Groups

Moderate

+35


Conservative


Neutral: 17DK: 12

Neutral: 8DK: 0

Neutral: 19DK: 0

Neutral: 16DK: 0

Neutral: 18DK: 0

Neutral: 24DK: 1

GOP a pro-life party, fall off with McCain conservatives; moderates oppose

pro-life groups

21

Evangelicals lead fight against gay marriage, with strong support from Tea

Party and Catholics, but moderates embrace it and with intensityPlease rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a


194

21 19 19 32

27

8

27 28 2744

4372

40 41 3922

47

76

44 45 4426


+17+17 +17+68 +18


Gay Marriage

Moderate

+20


Conservative


Neutral: 17DK: 12

Neutral: 8DK: 0

Neutral: 19DK: 0

Neutral: 16DK: 0

Neutral: 18DK: 0

Neutral: 24DK: 1

22

Cracks on business, regulation and

the environment

22

14 14 13 16 10 15

34 31 30 31 3245

19 16 26 18 18 9

45 52 51 47 4532


Secularconservative

Moderate

Agree much more Agree somewhat more Agree much more Somewhat More

+13


Moderates open to regulation of business for public interest; Tea party

opposed with most intensity…

23


Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good

Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest.

+16 +13+21+22+11

28 36 42 31 20 10

50 57 6553 46

28

15 10 8 14 17 25

32 26 21 28 3445


Secularconservative

Moderate


+17


Moderates view environmental regulations as worth cost and with intensity;

seculars open; Catholics open but less; Tea Party strongly opposed

24


Stricter environmental laws andregulations are worth the cost.

Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy.

+24 +12+44+31+18

20 19 15 19 22 27

38 37 29 35 4050

24 27 31 27 19 14

45 49 57 48 4131


Secularconservative

Moderate


+19

Anti-corporate sentiment has real strength across GOP factions, intensity among

non-loyalist GOP and particularly moderates

25


Most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit.

Business corporations make too much profit.

+13 +1+28+12+7

26

Moderates hostile to CEOs of large businesses



10 15 12 14 6 3

31 33 38 3928

17

27 24 19 26 32 36

38 36 32 36 3948


+11+6 +3+3 +31


CEOs of large businesses

Moderate

+7


Conservative


Neutral: 30DK: 0

Neutral: 30DK: 1

Neutral: 29DK: 1

Neutral: 25DK: 0

Neutral: 33DK: 0

Neutral: 35DK: 1

27

Populist cracks grows wider with oil companies



14 20 19 17 9 5

34 3748 42

24 19

23 22 19 20 27 30

35 3527 30

40 42


+16+21 +12+2 +23


Oil Companies

Moderate

+1


Conservative


Neutral: 31DK: 0

Neutral: 28DK: 0

Neutral: 26DK: 0

Neutral: 20DK: 0

Neutral: 36DK: 0

Neutral: 38DK: 1

28

The Tea Party-McCain split

28

29

Tea Party style of politics divides the GOPPlease rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

19 2748

210

3545

86

37

1 2

13 1526

8 32 46

41 4

10

4059 61


+58+76 +17+11 +59


Tea Party

Moderate

+6


Conservative


Neutral: 24DK: 0

Neutral: 21DK: 0

Neutral: 4DK: 0

Neutral: 22DK: 0

Neutral: 40DK: 0

Neutral: 36DK: 1

3030

2020 General Election

Joe Biden says this country was not built by Wall Street bankers, C.E.O.'s and Hedge Fund

Managers. It was built by the great American Middle Class. But the Middle Class is hurting in America

today and powerful forces are trying to tear America apart instead of lifting it up. Our political system is

broken and Donald Trump is the only president who has decided not to represent the whole country.

This president has his base, but we need a president who works for all Americans.

31

Amash constitution message gets broadest audience, as does Buttiegieg’s new politics

Justin Amash says he takes seriously his oath to support and defend the Constitution. He has been a

principled and consistent defender of limited government, economic freedom, and individual liberty. He

says we need leaders who are committed to the Rule of Law and the protection of our civil liberties and

who will work to create a balanced budget to combat the greatest threat to our national security: the

federal government's overspending and debt. Together, we can empower people, not government..

Elizabeth Warren says we must fight for an America that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and

the well-connected. The rules of the economy are rigged to benefit the wealthy who use their money to

rig our politics. That is corruption, and we need to attack it. That means big change to level the playing

field for the middle class. It means we start taxing wealth so we can make big investments that support

American jobs and help families and fund universal childcare and health care. She says this will make

our economy work for everyone

Pete Buttigieg says we are facing urgent national crises and the answers won't come from Washington,

but rather to Washington. As a mayor, he knows good politics is based in helping people, not in

advancing an ideological agenda. As a veteran, he understands when we bring Americans together we

can do anything. And as president, Pete will bring a new kind of politics to Washington -- one that will

rally Americans together behind bold ideas so we can finally solve our greatest problems.

433

735

856

544

687

16

4

8

12

7

9

16

9

11

12

10

11

18

14

15

3013

19

3316

23

3820

26

373032

524346

10

6

8

14

6

9

14

6

9

20

16

18

28

21

24

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

Total

Moderate GOP

Trump Loyalist

TotalMuch more positive Somewhat more positive A little more

Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders says we need a new vision for America. At a time when we have

three people in this country owning more wealth than the bottom half of America, while 500,000

people are sleeping out on the streets today, it is time for real change. Sanders say health care is a

human right and we need to pass a Medicare-for-all, single-payer health care system. He also says

education is our future, and we must make public colleges and universities tuition-free and eliminate

student debt. He argues we do that by placing a tax on Wall Street

Below are some words and phrases which people use to describe leaders in our country. For each word or phrase, please indicate whether it

describes Donald Trump very well, well, not too well, or not well at all.

8 5 5 6 5 3 3 312 8 8 10

84 85 85 85 90 90 91 91

74 76 75 74

3 4 5 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 7 5

Trump v.Biden

Trump v.Warren

Trump v.Sanders

Trump v.Buttigieg

Trump v.Biden

Trump v.Warren

Trump v.Sanders

Trump v.Buttigieg

Trump v.Biden

Trump v.Warren

Trump v.Sanders

Trump v.Buttigieg

Democratic Candidate Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other

All GOP Loyalists Less Enthusiastic

32

+76

2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

Trump has only consolidated 85 percent in presidential race

+80 +80 +79 +85 +87 +88 +88 +62 +68 +83 +64

trump mobilizes his tea party- observant base, but at high cost · 2019-12-18 · fictional world...

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