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Triveni TurbineCMP: ````` 57.5 Target Price: ````` 66 Accumulate

BSE Sensex 21,276NSE Nifty 6,329

Scrip Details

Equity ` 330mnFace Value ` 1/-Market Cap ` 19bn

USD 306mn52 week High/Low ` 69 / 45Avg. Volume (no) 192,568BSE Code 533655NSE Symbol TRITURBINEBloomberg Code TRIV INReuters Code TRVT.BO

Shareholding PatternPromoter 71.94MF/Banks/FIs 6.09FIIs 17.04Public / Others 4.93

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DOLAT CAPITAL

March 6, 2014

Triveni Turbine, one of the leading global manufacturers of sub 30MW turbines, is at inflexion point. The domestic business whichwas the key driver of earnings has had significant erosion owingto the industrial slowdown and its impact on the capex cycle. Webelieve that this is on the verge of stabilising now onwards withuptick possible in FY15E, the lead signals of which will show uppost elections in our opinion. Even as the domestic revenuescontracted, the company has stepped up in the exports market withthe GE JV. Trivenis strength being its technology is furtherenhanced with its JV with GE. We believe its efforts in internationalmarkets are expected to bore fruits in FY15E. Focus on exportsand after market revenues coupled with cost containment hashelped it to partly compensate for the decline in domestic market.

Triveni is a technology driven company with consistent focus onupgradation to suit the market needs. The company has designed hybridturbines which enables it to offer better value proposition to clients bothin terms of efficiency and cost.

Triveni has an inhouse developed technology for the upto 30MW turbinesand its partnership with GE for the 30-100MW turbines has furtherstrengthened its product offering. Partnership by a global major like GEspeaks highly of Trivenis manufacturing capabilities.

Triveni has a strong presence (~58% market share) in the sub 30MWIndian turbine market. Importantly its share in this segment is significantlyhigher than its closest competitor viz. Siemens.

With its JV with GE, we expect Triveni to significantly ramp up in theinternational markets as well. The company has also had a breakthroughin the international segment for its 30MW plus turbines.

Triveni has extremely strong financials with zero debt and return ratios of~40%. Importantly, pricing discipline and significant after-market revenueallows it to have superior margins of over 20% on a consistent basis.

We expect growth to pick up in FY15E on back of strong order book of `5.2 bn. Operating leverage led benefits would enable it to grow its PAT by35% YoY to `1.2 bn in FY15E. On our EPS estimate of ` 3.7 for FY15E,the stock trades at P/E multiple of 16x. We initiate coverage on the stockwith ACCUMULATE rating with a target price of ` 66 per share, implying15% upside from current levels.

FinancialsYear Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % PAT % Growth EPS(`````) % Growth PER (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%)FY13 6,568 4.0 1,635 24.9 1,066 17.1 3.2 17.1 17.8 100.2 120.5FY14E 5,412 (17.6) 1,150 21.2 743 (30.3) 2.3 (30.3) 25.5 43.6 61.7FY15E 6,661 23.1 1,520 22.8 1,003 35.0 3.0 35.0 18.9 43.2 62.6FY16E 7,702 15.6 1,815 23.6 1,221 21.7 3.7 21.7 15.5 39.3 57.4Figures in ` mn

Sr. Analyst: Pawan ParakhTel : +9122 4096 9712E-mail: [email protected]

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Triveni Sensex

Triveni Turbine relative to Sensex

DOLAT CAPITAL

2March 6, 2014 Triveni Turbine

India ResearchAT Inflection Point !

Triveni Turbine, one of the leading global manufacturers for the sub30 MW turbines, is at inflexion point. The domestic business whichwas the key driver of earnings has had significant erosion owing tothe industrial slowdown and its impact on the capex cycle. We believethat this is on the verge of stabilising now onwards with uptickpossible in FY15E, the lead signals of which will show up postelections in our opinion. Even as the domestic revenues contracted,the company has stepped up in the exports market with the GE JV.Trivenis strength being its technology is further enhanced with itsJV with GE. We believe its efforts in international markets areexpected to bore fruits in FY15E. Focus on exports and after marketrevenues coupled with cost containment has helped it to partlycompensate for the decline in domestic market.

We believe that the medium to long term prospects for the companyremain intact, and have actually turned stronger having survivedthe slowdown. Notably, even in the slowdown period, it hasmaintained return on equity higher of 30% and generated free cashflows. The technological capability has been significantly enhancedthrough the tie up with GE in the 30MW plus segment, and that shallbe a key driver for the exports market.

Triveni has one of the highest margins and return ratios in the listedcapital goods space. Improvement in order book levels will lead tostrong revenue growth and thereby operating leverage ledimprovement in margins in FY15E. Consequently we expect to see35% YoY growth in PAT for FY15E. We initiate coverage on the stockwith a Buy rating with a target price of Rs66 per share, implying 15%upside from current levels.

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India ResearchIndustrial Turbine Demand DynamicsUsage across industriesTriveni Turbine (Triveni) manufactures steam turbines that are primarilyused for power generation in various applications like Co-generation, Wasteheat recovery/ combined cycle power plant (CCPP) and Captive/independent power plant. All process industries that require steam as partof the process would generate power onsite, as it is the most efficient useof thermal energy. While combined cycle plants convert 70-75% of wasteprocess gas into useful energy,cogeneration based power plants have athermal efficiency of over 70%. Cogeneration and combined cycle powerplant entails efficient utilisation of fuel (waste gas or by-product) and costeffective manner of generating power. Hence the same presents anattractive proposition for businesses which have heavy requirement ofPower.

The cogeneration/ CCPP find usage across all process industries likeSugar, Oil& Gas and Metals amongst others. Triveni has been one of theleading player in the cogeneration market with c.150 turbines having beensupplied to sugar sector so far. Apart from Sugar, Triveni has been activewith sectors like Steel, Pulp & Paper, Textiles and Chemicals. These aretypically the industries characterised by high load variations and requireconstant/ reliable power supply.

In addition, to process industries, steam turbines are required for captive/Independent power generation from Coal, Biomass or Municipal waste.Coal is the conventional source of fuel and is used from generating powerboth on small and large scale basis. However Biomass and Municipal wastebased power plants are small in size and Triveni has a dominant presencein this segment. Triveni has installed turbines based on Biomass/ Municipalwaste in India as well as international geographies like Spain, UK, Africa,Thailand and South Korea.

Application Description Industry Solution

Cogeneration By-product is utilized to raise steam for Bagasse in Sugar Mill, Empty Fruit Bunch,power generation Kernel from Palm Oil Mills

Waste heat recovery Energy recovery from waste process gas with Waste heat generated in the process(WHR) and potential high energy content is used to industries.Combined Cycle produce steam that can be used to generatePower Plant power via - cogeneration or combined cycle(CCPP) plant

Captive/ Independent Power generation for captive/ commercial Cement and Metals sector with heavy usagePower plant usage of power. Use of coal or biomass as feedstock

for generating power for commercial purposes

Non conventional Harnessing the heat energy from non- Solar Thermal, Geothermalsources energy conventional energy resources through steam

power Generation.

Exhibit 1: Industrial Turbine user industry and application

Source: Company, Dolat Research

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India ResearchTechnology backed businesses to command premiumTurbine manufacturing is a technologically intensive product with only c.10leading manufacturers across the world. In India, the Industrial turbinemarket is dominated primarily by Triveni and Siemens which together havea market share of c.90%. In Turbine manufacturing, designing of the bladesholds the key in delivering cost effective and efficient product. Triveni hashad continued focus on technology development programme with a strongin-house R&D team supported by leading technology institutions. Trivenialso has strategic partnerships with the worlds leading global technologyresearch & design firms like Concept NREC and Impact Technologies.

Technology being at the heart of turbine manufacturing, it requires constantupgrade to stay ahead in competition. Turbine can be manufactured basedon two technologies viz. Reaction or Impulsive. While some of the playershave product lines specific to a particular technology, Triveni has designedhybrid turbines which combine the best of reaction and impulsetechnologies. These hybrid turbines offer better value proposition to clientsand Triveni both in terms of efficiency and cost.Trivenis continues focuson engineering and designs enabled it developed 10 new models/ variantsin FY13, which helped it further strengthen its product line. Triveni currentlyhas ~80 IP filings for its designs and it also awarded as the Top organisationin design by CII in 2013.

Commercial terms - sellers advantageIndian Industrial turbine market is primarily dominated by two players viz.Triveni & Siemens. These two players together have a market share ofc.90%. Limited competition ensures pricing discipling amongst the players.We take comfort in the fact that, price disruption hasnt been the case inthe industry even in last two years when the market has been extremelychallenging. Additionally the commercial terms (in terms of advances) thatTriveni enjoys ensures it to keep its working capital levels significantly undercontrol. However in the event of slowing execution, working capitalrequirement does inch up a bit. As can be seen in the chart below, despitethe increase in working capital levels in last two years, Trivenis net workingcapital is at 2% of net sales, which still below several other capital goodscompanies.

Exhibit 2: Triveni Working Capital Trend over the years

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India ResearchSource: Company, Dolat Research

GE Triveni moving from strength to strengthUntil FY10, Triveni was only present in turbines up to 30MW range; howeveras part of its growth initiatives it expanded its scope to 100MW with a50:50 JV with GE Oil & Gas.The JV will utilise the existing manufacturingfacility of Triveni at Bengaluru and GE would help the JV in marketing itsproduct in the international markets through GEs existing marketingchannel. The JV will significantly help Triveni to expand both its productofferings and geographic reach. Till date, the JV has already bagged 3orders in the 30-100MW segment and the same are under various phasesof execution.

Exhibit 3: Orders in the 30 MW plus segmentYear Client Size (MW)

FY13 Usha Martin 35 MWFY13 NMDC 2 x 40 MWFY14 South East Asian Client 2 x 38 MW


Exposed to Capex cycle - Order booking contracts butenquiries remain buoyantTrivenis business is highly exposed to the Industrial capex cycle and theprevailing business environment. The demand for Cogeneration/ Combinedcycle plants primarily emanates from the industrial expansion eitherGreenfield or Brownfield. All process industries that require or generatesteam would go in for onsite generation of power which is both efficientand economical. Weak macro-economic scenario coupled with risinginterest rates have led to a significant slowdown in the industrial capex andthereby the demand environment for Triveni.

Exhibit 4: Declining CG IIP and Trivenis order booking


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India ResearchExhibit 5: PMI - Economy bottoming out

Source: Dolat Research

As per industry sources, the market size of less than 30MW turbines hasreduced from c.1400 MW in FY11 to 670MW in FY13 and it is estimatedthat the same is likely to further contract to 400-500MW in FY14E. Asubstantial part of this contraction is attributed to the decline in the CaptivePower segment, wherein several leading metal companies have migratedfrom being a small captive power producer to being a large independentpower producer.

Additionally, rising interest rates and tightening of credit to SME sector havealso led to slow investment decision making. Despite a contraction ininstallation, the enquiry base for Triveni grew 12% in FY13 and has remainedbroadly flat in FY14E.

Exhibit 6: Decline in industry size (MW)


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India ResearchExhibit 7: Rising interest rates

Source: RBI, Dolat Research

Our interaction with industry leaders suggests that we are apparently atthe bottom of the economic cycle and the probability of a recovery post theelections seems high. The likely reversal in the rate cycle could also triggerseveral small expansion projects (currently on hold) which augur well forIndustrial turbine maker like Triveni. We have assumed a flat growth indomestic order inflows for FY15E, which could see significant upwardrevision in the above event.

Export business to drive growthTriveni has historically had considerable export revenues (c.20% of FY10revenues - refer exhibit 8) with presence only in the South-east Asia andKorean markets. However with decline in demand from domestic markets,it has significantly increased its focus on exports. It currently has presencein ~50 countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, Central & Latin America and someparts of Middle-east. For expanding its geographic presence, Triveni hasengaged with several project consultants and has also stationed itsrepresentative in various countries to drive the business. Additionally, Triveniis also benefitted from the marketing network of GE owing to its tie-up inthe 30-100MW range.

Exhibit 8: Exports revenue growth trend

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India ResearchSource: Company, Dolat ResearchIn the international markets, Triveni primarily competes with turbinessuppliers from Europe, Japan and Brazil. According to the management,lower cost overheads led by continuous value engineering initiatives andlabour arbitrage enables it to be more competitive vis-s-vis its peers.Trivenis technology tie-up with GE coupled with its exiting strong installedbase in several countries significantly increases its acceptance in theinternational market. In the last two years, the company has increased itsexport revenues from ` 660 mn in FY11 to ` 1.7 bn in FY13 and givenTrivenis increasing geographic reach we expect its contribution in revenuesto increase going ahead.

Exhibit 9: Exports growth in order inflow


Aftermarket segment: Another balancing actTrivenis aftermarket business includes supply of spare parts, refurbishmentand O&M support to its clients. The after-market business did revenues of` 1.3 bn (19% of revenues) in FY13 of which supply of spares constitutedthe major part (c.65%) of the revenues. Triveni has c.13 service centreacross India to cater to the after-market needs of the consumer. While thespares business thrives on the sales of its own turbines, Triveni providesO&M and refurbishment services to turbines of other manufacturers aswell. Triveni has supplied over 2500 turbines in last 40 years and hencehas a huge installed base for its spares business. While the company(along with its GE JV) has the capability to manufacture Turbines up to 100MW, it can provide O&M and refurbishment services to utility range turbinesof up to 300MW.

As of the now, the business is primarily domestic in nature with only c.10%of the after-market revenues coming from exports. However Triveni nowplans to take this business international as it plans to set-up service centresacross various international geographies. We believe this could be a greatgrowth opportunity for the company in the long run and turn into an annuitysegment for the long run.

DOLAT CAPITAL


India ResearchExhibit 10: Spares revenue trend & its contribution as % of revenue


Exhibit 10: Spares revenue breakdown


Sustained superior margins and return ratiosTriveni is a debt free company with strong return ratios (over 40%) andconsistent track record of generating FCF.Triveni has one of highest EBITDAmargins (20.5% for 9mFY14 and 24.9% for FY13) and return ratios in thecapital goods space despite capacity utilisation at ~65% levels. Trivenihigh margins are also attributable to higher revenue contribution fromexports and after-market sales which have higher margins. Higher marginsand depreciated asset base enables the company to report return ratios inexcess of 40%.

Exhibit 11: Triveni operating performance

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Exhibit 12: Triveni superior return ratios


Trivenis order booking and consequent revenue growth has been impactedin FY14E as macro-economic slowdown led to slow decision making andthereby significant delays in enquiries converting into orders. This led toc.20% YoY decline in revenues and 13% YoY decline in order inflow for9mFY14. While we continue to believe that order flows from domesticmarkets are likely to be depressed until the revival of capex cycle, we believethat international markets are likely to drive order flows for Triveni in FY15E.We expect the GEs wide marketing network coupled with Trivenisaggressive marketing efforts (in the African and Latin American markets)and cost competitiveness should bear fruits in FY15E. Consequently weexpect to 23% YoY growth in revenues and 11% growth in orders inflowsfor Triveni in FY15E.

Exhibit 14: Triveni revenue trend

Cash Flow Statement FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16EProfit before tax and extra ordinary items 1,349 1,567 1,092 1,486 1,808Depreciation & amortisation 116 123 126 130 137Net Interest Exp 96 27 8 13 15Direct taxes paid -398 -488 -350 -483 -588Change in Working Capital (Non Cash) 121 -350 -144 104 211Other -5 -11 0 0 0Cash Flow from Operating Activities 1,279 867 734 1,250 1,583Capex -134 -32 -100 -100 -100Free Cash Flow 1,145 836 634 1,150 1,483

Exhibit 13: Consistent free cash flow generation


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Exhibit 15: Triveni order inflow trend


Valuations:Post a decline in earnings in FY14E, we expect growth to return back inFY15E on the back of expected growth in export order inflows. Incrementally,any post election revival in capex cycle could provide further upsides toour order inflow and revenue estimates. Triveni is a technology drivencompany with strong competitive advantages. It is the leader in the Indianindustrial turbine market with strong margin profile and return ratios - whichis otherwise a rarity in the capital goods space.We arrive at a Target priceof ` 66 per share which is the average of P/E and DCF based valuation(refer exhibit 16).

Exhibit 15: Triveni PE band

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India ResearchExhibit 16: Valuation basisParticulars Risk free rate 8.5%Risk premium 5.0%Beta (x) 1.0WACC (%) 13.5%Terminal growth rate 5.0%Sum of discounted FCFF (Rsmn) 20,238Less: net debt (Rsmn) -1,504Total valuation (Rsmn) 21,743DCF based value per share 65.9FY16E EPS 3.7Target P/E 18.0

P/E based value 66.6

Fair value per share 66.3Source: Dolat Research

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India Research

IMPORTANT RATIOSParticulars Mar13 Mar14E Mar15E Mar16E(A) Measures of Performance (%)Contribution MarginEBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 24.9 21.2 22.8 23.6EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 26.1 22.7 24.4 25.5Interest / Sales 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2Gross Profit Margin 25.7 22.5 24.3 25.3Tax/PBT 31.9 32.0 32.5 32.5Net Profit Margin 16.2 13.7 15.1 15.8

(B) As Percentage of Net SalesExcise Duty % of Gross Sales 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5Raw Material 57.9 56.8 57.0 57.0Employee Expenses 8.2 10.5 9.5 9.0Other Expenses 9.0 11.5 10.7 10.4

(C) Measures of Financial StatusInterest Coverage (x) 63.0 153.3 125.3 130.7Average Cost Of Debt (%) 545.0 NA NA NADebtors Period (days) 65.1 65.0 60.0 55.0Closing stock (days) 37.0 42.0 40.0 35.0Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 9.9 8.7 9.1 10.4Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 3.6 3.0 3.5 3.8Working Capital Turnover (x) 26.8 7.1 4.4 3.2Non Cash Working Capital (` Mn) (39.8) 103.8 0.0 (211.0)

(D) Measures of InvestmentEPS (`) (excl EO) 3.2 2.3 3.0 3.7EPS (`) 3.2 2.3 3.0 3.7CEPS (`) 3.6 2.6 3.4 4.1DPS (`) 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9Dividend Payout (%) 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0Profit Ploughback (%) 75.3 75.0 75.0 75.0Book Value (`) 4.4 6.0 8.1 10.7RoANW (%) 100.2 43.6 43.2 39.3RoACE (%) 120.5 61.7 62.6 57.4RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) 142 84 114 163

(E) Valuation RatiosCMP ( )` 58 58 58 58P/E (x) 17.8 25.5 18.9 15.5Market Cap. (` Mn.) 18,969 18,969 18,969 18,969MCap/ Sales (x) 2.9 3.5 2.8 2.5EV (` Mn.) 18,689 18,306 17,465 16,356EV/Sales (x) 2.8 3.4 2.6 2.1EV/EBDITA (x) 11.4 15.9 11.5 9.0P/BV (x) 13.2 9.7 7.1 5.4Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6E-estimates

CASH FLOWParticulars Mar13 Mar14E Mar15E Mar16EProfit before tax 1,567 1,092 1,486 1,808Depreciation & w.o. 123 126 130 137Net Interest Exp 27 8 13 15Direct taxes paid (488) (350) (483) (588)Chg. in Working Capital (350) (144) 104 211Other (11) 0 0 0(A) CF from Opt. Activities 867 734 1,250 1,583Capex (32) (100) (100) (100)Free Cash Flow 836 634 1,150 1,483Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments 25 (20) 0 0(B) CF from Invt. Activities (7) (120) (100) (100)Inc./(Dec.) in Debt (356) (8) 0 0Interest exp net (27) (8) (13) (15)Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (311) (219) (296) (359)(C) CF from Financing (694) (235) (309) (374)Net Change in Cash 167 378 841 1,109Opening Cash balances 118 285 663 1,504Closing Cash balances 285 663 1,504 2,614E-estimates

INCOME STATEMENT ````` mnParticulars Mar13 Mar14E Mar15E Mar16ENet Sales 6,568 5,412 6,661 7,702Total Income 6,568 5,412 6,661 7,702Total Expenditure 4,933 4,262 5,142 5,887Raw Material 3,804 3,071 3,797 4,390Employee Expenses 538 568 633 693Other Expenses 592 622 712 804Other Income 81 77 109 145EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) 1,635 1,150 1,520 1,815EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) 1,716 1,227 1,629 1,960Interest 27 8 13 15Gross Profit 1,689 1,219 1,616 1,945Depreciation 123 126 130 137Profit Before Tax & EO Items 1,567 1,092 1,486 1,808Profit Before Tax 1,566 1,092 1,486 1,808Tax 500 350 483 588Net Profit 1,066 743 1,003 1,221

BALANCE SHEETParticulars Mar13 Mar14E Mar15E Mar16ESources of FundsEquity Capital 330 330 330 330Preference Capital 28 28 28 28Other Reserves 1,084 1,607 2,315 3,176Net Worth 1,442 1,965 2,673 3,534Secured Loans 5 0 0 0Loan Funds 5 0 0 0Deferred Tax Liability 78 75 75 75

Total Capital Employed 1,525 2,040 2,748 3,609

Applications of FundsGross Block 1,804 1,805 1,905 2,005Less: Accumulated Depreciation 656 782 912 1,049Net Block 1,148 1,023 993 956Capital Work in Progress 1 100 100 100Investments 130 150 150 150Current Assets, Loans & AdvancesInventories 665 623 730 739Sundry Debtors 1,172 964 1,095 1,161Cash and Bank Balance 285 663 1,504 2,614Loans and Advances 562 445 548 528sub total 2,684 2,695 3,877 5,040Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions

Current Liabilities 1,867 1,483 1,825 2,005Provisions 572 445 548 633sub total 2,439 1,927 2,373 2,638Net Current Assets 245 767 1,504 2,403Total Assets 1,525 2,040 2,748 3,609E-estimates

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This report contains a compilation of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whileall reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinion given are fair and reasonable, we do not takeany responsibility for inaccuracy or omission of any information and will not be liable for any loss or damage of any kind suffered by use ofor reliance placed upon this information. For Pvt. Circulation & Research Purpose only.

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