trican ir presentation - march 2018 final2 ir...anticipate customer spend for fracturing to be flat...
TRANSCRIPT
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
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This document contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. These forward-looking statements include, among others, the Company’s prospects, expected revenues, expenses, profits, expected developments and strategies for its operations, and other expectations, beliefs, plans, goals, objectives, assumptions, information and statements about possible future events, conditions, results of operations or performance. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “anticipate,” “achieve”, “achievable,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend”, “plan”, “planned”, and other similar terms and phrases. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. These risks and uncertainties include: fluctuating prices for crude oil and natural gas; changes in drilling activity; general global economic, political and business conditions; weather conditions; regulatory changes; and availability of products, qualified personnel, manufacturing capacity and raw materials. If any of these uncertainties materialize, or if assumptions are incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those expected.
OVERVIEW OF TRICAN
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Strong Financial Position Market capitalization ~1.1 billion (February 23, 2018) $94.1 million net debt (December 31, 2017) Financial investment in US listed company Keane Group
($177 million, December 31, 2017) Strong cash flow with minimal capital expenditures,
opportunities for deployment:• NCIB• M&A (longer-term)• Process optimization
Market Leading Positions Canadian market leader in fracturing services Canadian market leader in cementing services Supporting service lines: coil tubing, nitrogen, acid,
water management services and industrial services
Fracturing, 72%
Cementing, 15%
Acid, Coil, Nitrogen, 7%
Fraction Energy, 4% Industrial, 2%
EQUIPMENT – AS OF FEBRUARY 23, 2018
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Service Line Total Equipment
Active,Manned
Active, Maintenance, Unmanned
Idled ~ Market Share
Fracturing (HHP) 680,000 455,000 114,000 111,000 30%
Cementing (trucks) 67 30 10 27 40%
Coil Tubing (units) 28 6 9 13 n/a
Nitrogen (units) 80 26 12 42 n/a
Ability to reactivate idle equipment would increment both free cash flow and ROIC: Our $33 million H1 2018 capital budget includes our estimated reactivation costs
TRICAN – 2017 SNAPSHOT
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Increased frac intensity and job size improve profitability
Higher pumping time translates to increased operating margins
2017 total sand volumes increased 112% year-over-year
Average stages per well increasing• Increasing ~10% per year
($ millions) 2017 2016
Revenue $929.9 $325.2
Adjusted Operating Income $183.3 ($37.4)
Profit from Continuing Operations $20.1 ($40.7)
Earnings Per Share (from continuing operations) $0.07 ($0.24)
MARKET DYNAMICS – INCREASING WELL INTENSITY
Leading sand per well: 6,000 – 7,000 tonnes• Still below US average sand / well
Operating efficiency is a competitive advantage • Estimate ~ 80% of the WCSB market is weighted to higher intensity formations:
- Montney, Duvernay, Deep Basin
• > 50% of the fleet are continuous duty pumps, ideally suited to increasing well intensity environment
• We continue to work with customers to optimize pumping time: - leading edge > 80% daily pumping time- Utilizing maintenance crews to minimize downtime
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TRICAN – COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
Strong safety record• LTI Rate of 0.19
Technical advantage in Canada• Numerous engineers embedded in client offices
• MVP FracTM system
• Lightweight cement blends
• Technology retains and grows market share and improves returns
• Lowers product cost
High-quality, efficient operations
Significantly lowered cost structure from the downturn
Large scale going forward
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GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE
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Horn River Shale
Montney Shale
Bakken Shale
Cardium Tight Oil
Viking Tight Oil
Lower Shaunavon Tight Oil
GRANDE PRAIRIE
WHITECOURTHINTON
FORT ST. JOHN
NISKU LLOYDMINSTER
RED DEER
BROOKS ESTEVAN
British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan
Deep Basin
Duvernay Shale
DRAYTON VALLEY
CALGARY
Manitoba
Spearfish
MEDICINE HAT
OUTLOOK - 2018
83% of revenue from liquids rich and oil plays (Q4 2017)
Only 17% of revenue from dry gas customers (Q4 2017)
Customer economics in Canadian liquids-rich gas plays are competing with all plays worldwide• Driven largely by condensate pricing• CDN / US dollar exchange rate helps customer economics
Approximately half of our manned fracturing equipment is committed throughout 2018
Soft commitments on the remaining manned fracturing equipment throughout 2018
Pricing stable with ability to recover cost increases
Focus on driving better crew efficiency and increased sand per well to drive better profitability
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OUTLOOK - 2018
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Anticipate customer spend for fracturing to be flat year-over-year• Gas spending down• Liquids spending up
Continued growth in service intensity• Proppant per well estimated to increase 15% in 2018
The net result is more spend on fracturing and the market will remain undersupplied throughout the year
OUTLOOK - 2018
Plan to add one additional fracturing crew in first half of 2018
Will evaluate adding additional crews if current pricing and ROCE can be maintained
Activated 3 additional cement crews for Q1
Looking at activating additional coil crews in 2018
Hiring qualified staff limiting speed of equipment activations
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TRICAN – COST SAVINGS
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Minimal fixed cost increases going forward as business improves
Lowered fixed/variable cost ratio• Fixed costs now 25% of costs as compared to 50% pre-downturn
Canyon-Trican combination allows for additional cost savings• Annual synergies between $20 and $40 million
- $31 million realized as of December 31, 2017
• Large scale will reduce costs
GROWTH
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Strong earnings potential from existing assets with minimal additional capital investment required
Existing asset base generated $347 million EBITDA in 2014 and $586 million peak EBITDA
Substantial leverage on fixed cost structure as equipment utilization increases
GROWTH
We will focus on:• Being on leading edge of cost and operational efficiencies
• Achieving cost advantages through size and scale in Canada
• Separating ourselves through safety, technology, service quality and innovation
Will explore adding or growing additional service lines in Canada after Canyon is fully integrated
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ADDITIONAL GROWTH
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Retained ownership in Keane allows us to participate in U.S. recovery
Approximately 5% ownership in Keane Group (post January 2018 secondary) with potential increased payout from certain economic conditions upon liquidity event
• As part of a secondary offering in January 2018, Trican received approximately USD $27 million
• As part of a secondary offering in January 2017, Trican received approximately USD $28.4 million
• Trican maintains significant residual value in remaining common stock of Keane and measurable value is dependent on timing and share price of any further liquidating events
ADDITIONAL GROWTH
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Year Ending March 2017
Keane Holding Company Proceeds
Trican Pro Rata Proceeds
Trican Pro Rata Proceeds (1.25 CAD/USD
Exchange Rate)FRAC USD $14.00 share price:
2018 (March 16, 2018 – March 15, 2019) USD$797 million USD$123 million CAD$153 million 2019 (March 16, 2019 – March 15, 2020) USD$797 million USD$76 million CAD$95 million 2020 (March 16, 2020 – March 15, 2021) USD$797 million USD$74 million CAD$92 million 2021 (March 16, 2021 – March 15, 2022) USD$797 million USD$74 million CAD$92 million
FRAC USD $18.00 share price:
2018 (March 16, 2018 – March 15, 2019) USD$1.02 billion USD$185 million CAD$241 million 2019 (March 16, 2019 – March 15, 2020) USD$1.02 billion USD$121 million CAD$175 million 2020 (March 16, 2020 – March 15, 2021) USD$1.02 billion USD$95 million CAD$126 million 2021 (March 16, 2021 – March 15, 2022) USD$1.02 billion USD$95 million CAD$126 million
FRAC USD $20.00 share price:2018 (March 16, 2018 – March 15, 2019) USD$1.14 billion USD$216 million CAD$270 million 2019 (March 16, 2019 – March 15, 2020) USD$1.14 billion USD$152 million CAD$190 million 2020 (March 16, 2020 – March 15, 2021) USD$1.14 billion USD$105 million CAD$131 million 2021 (March 16, 2021 – March 15, 2022) USD$1.14 billion USD$105 million CAD$131 million
The above table valuations includes the two secondary offerings:• Liquidation event #1: Jan 20, 2017 Secondary offering w/ IPO = USD$28 million payable to Trican out of USD$284 million in proceeds to InvestorCo
• Liquidation event #2: Jan 17, 2018 Secondary offering = USD$27 million payable to Trican out of USD$280 million in proceeds to InvestorCo
Notes:1. Assumption for table = 100% of remaining FRAC shares liquidated in year shown and at price shown (could be single or multiple events).2. Remaining FRAC shares held by Keane Investor Holdings LLC ("InvestorCo”) = 56,919,000 FRAC shares.
ADDITIONAL GROWTH
Non-compete in U.S. until April 2018
Trican will license our technology in U.S. and International markets• Licensed sand supplier and chemical suppliers in
North America
• Selling selective chemistry in US and Canada
• Selling silica dust control product in other industries
• Exploring technology and product sales internationally
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INNOVATION
Trican focuses on separating itself with technology
Technology must reduce $/BOE for our customers or lower our costs
MVP FracTM
• Patented chemical solution that reduces proppant settling in slick water fracs
• Strong market acceptance in Canada
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• Recent case studies show 20% increased production in the Cardium and 30% increased production in the Montney
• Signed one license in U.S. with sand supplier and pursuing additional licenses
Introduced friction reducers that will lower product cost
CleanTRACK™ - patented dust control product that is being used to control dust on lease roads, lease sites and all dirt roads
AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2017
$43 million drawn on $227 million revolving credit facility
$227 million revolving credit facility is committed until April 2020
$57 million of Senior Notes
Net debt of approximately $94.1 million (net of cash and currency swaps)
Company is in full compliance with covenants, and continues to forecast compliance in the future
Capital expenditures approximately $33 million in 1H 2018
• Maintenance: $15 million• Growth: $15 million• Reactivations: $3 million
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SHARE BUYBACK
NCIB in place to purchase up to 10% of Trican shares before October 2, 2018
Purchased approximately 11.9 million shares at a weighted average share price of $4.27 per share from October 2017 to February 21, 2018
Will continue to pay down debt and purchase shares going forward
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INVESTMENT ADVANTAGES
Largest Canadian pressure pumping company
Included in S&P TSX Index
Executing on share buyback
Significant earnings potential on existing assets • No significant capital investment required for reactivations
Leverage on low cost structure coming out of downturn
Upside to U.S. market recovery through Keane ownership
Strong management team that has managed through numerous cycles
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SUMMARY
Number of Outstanding Shares (as of Februrary 23, 2018): • 335 million
Average Daily Volume (one month period):• ~ 7.1 million (as of February 23, 2018)
Directors/Officers Ownership:• 1.1% (approx. - diluted basis)
Market Cap (as of February 23, 2018)• $1.1 billion
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