Tribes and Alchemy Evolution of the Real-Time-Challenged Internet

Guiding the future of networking by understanding the history

P.Asprey Nov 2006

1950 Many Engineering TribesTelecom, Telemetry, Television, Datacom,

Command and Control, Power, Sound

What would the Internet look like if theyhad smoked a peace pipe?

Who Said It?

• “The idea is idiotic on the face of it…they have not the slightest idea of the true problems involved.’”

• “Cell phone voice quality has prepared the public for VoIP.”

• “…our network has the fewest dropped calls!”

• “Bell Labs engineers said ‘Packet switching won’t work.’”

• “IP is so attractive as the packet infrastructure because …. software

applications running over IP do not have to be known by the

network…Note: To provide the proper prioritization on a

congested IP network, it must have some knowledge of the

applications.”

Who Said It?

• “The idea is idiotic on the face of it…they have not the slightest idea of the true problems involved.’”

-Western Union re Bell Patent

• “Cell phone voice quality has prepared the public for VoIP.”-Dr. Treichler, VoIP

Industry• “…our network has the fewest dropped calls!”

-Cingular advertising slogan• “Bell Labs engineers said ‘Packet switching won’t work.’”

-Roberts of ARPA IPTO• “IP is so attractive as the packet infrastructure because …. software

applications running over IP do not have to be known by the network…Note: To provide the proper prioritization on a congested IP network, it must have some knowledge of the applications.”

-Cisco white paper on real-time IP

TelecomTeletype, SwitchboardsTransmission of wordsTransmission of soundCharacter codes BaudotTelegraphyStore & Forward Messaging

Social and PoliticalBell Telephone patent4000 Telcos in 1902Radio, TVWestern UnionAT&T Antitrust QoS (Urgent Telegram)Radio ShackTalkiesNY World’s Fair

20 million phones Public Switched Telephone NW

Television, TelegraphySound transmission - real-time

Words transmission - non-real-timeFCC, IEC Standards

1890 - 1930’s Hello? Hello? WWI, Aircraft, Wireless

Sowing the Seeds - Growing a Communications Network

Era of Big Government Computers 1940-1960

• No high-level policy input from computer scientists

• Computing - a new animal– Requires subtle mix of science, engineering

• Government agencies,military pay for research– ONR, NBS, DOD, AEC, NASA…uncoordinated G-Jobs

– Funded corporations AND were their customers

– Government agencies also built their own

• Military-University-Complex swells

• By 1950 Government spending ~$20 million per year

TelecomTraveling Wave TubeKlystron, Magnetron Microwave, FDM

ComputingENIACWhirlwind ComputerStored ProgramPrimitive TransistorsReal-time Computing

Social and PoliticalRadarManhattan Project/Los Alamos US gets ‘The Bomb’Soviets get ‘The Bomb’Balance of PowerMilitary-University-ComplexArtificial Intelligence

MIT AI Lab 30 Million Telephones Fear! Money!Baby Boomers

Basic Computing and Transmission Technologies

1940’s Great War, Computing Machines, Cold War

Sowing the Seeds - Era of Government Computers

1950’s USA Good Guys, Domino Theory, Space Race

TelecomNationwide DialingElectronic SwitchingModemsDigital Multiplex T-1

ComputingMiniaturizationCheap TransistorsMagnetic memoryMagnet disk storage COBOL, FORTRANLISP, ALGOL

Social and PoliticalMilitary work is cool ICBM DetectionUSSR Sputnik NASA, ARPAAdmiral Grace HopperDouble Helix

50 Million Telephones Stable Digital Hardware

Large, Expensive ComputersCompilers, Languages

Programming is Interesting

Sowing the Seeds - Era of Government Computers

Growth - Commercialization of Computers

1960s Military Industrial Complex, Cool Scientists, Star Trek

Social and PoliticalVietnam Anti-War ProtestsDrug Culture,Genes, MemesNASA - Fault ToleranceNSF Computing EducationARPA Visionaries CompuServe sells timesharingKleinrock - Packet Switching TheoryMad scientist: Dr. No,

TelecomDataphone modemTelstar - Voice, TV24 channel TDMDigital switchingDigital signal processingDigital image processing

ComputingMULTICS, UNIXHigh-speed Data/FaxIntegrated CircuitsIMP NW InterfaceRedundancyDual Core Computing

90 Million TelephonesCritical research mass, Stable funding

ARPA GraduatesTimesharing,Business Computing

“Bond, James Bond.”

Golden Age of US Research Policy1960-1970

• Eisenhower warning: rise of the ‘Military Industrial Complex’

• Scientists in high places - Eisenhower/JFK – Stable funding, long-term projects, critical mass

• ARPA /IPTO (Information Processing Technology Office– “under civilian control” - JFK

• Commercial applications. – Banking, airline reservations

– Government still paying for internal/external R&D

• Telecom research - Telcos and Military Communications

1960’s Scientists in Charge Creating The Vision and Funding the Research

• New ARPA IPTO - Information Processing Technology Office– Crazy is OK: Mechanical elephant…1 crt, many computers

• ARPA Diversity: Psychologists and Engineers (no women)Licklider - Man-Computer Symbiosis, Galactic NetworkSutherland - Computer graphics, Snake RobotTaylor - Interactive Networks, 3 Terminals ProblemRoberts - Cooperative NetworksBaran - Secure Packetized Voice (Military)

• NSFNet backbone for research only

• Internet = NSFNet merged with Arpanet

Crosstalk? PSTN vs Packet SwitchingReal-Time Digital Divide

• US already had an extensive communications network experience

– Public switched telephone network (PSTN)– Telemetry networks real-time, store-and-forward– Data networks (Teletype) and Real-time networks (Voice, Radio, Broadcast)

• Computer Scientists vs Telecom Engineers– Different language, journals, conferences, terminology

• Telecom - improve quality, reliability of voice NW• Datacom engineers: Voice over IP seems to work…

Compares call quality scores for different service

providers

Colors represent call quality “MOS”

(Mean Opinion Score) rating

Most VoIP calls currently have unacceptable quality rating

Source:

Ellacoya NetworksExplosion of VoIP traffic in last 9 months

Over 250 different VoIP providers

Decrease in average VoIP quality reported in last 3 months

Developing the Networks

1970’s Phone Phreaks, PC Revolution, Mad Computers

Social and Political ARPA to DARPAXerox PARC (Taylor)CS without EE degreesVinton Cerf, NCPWozniak’s blue boxEntrepreneurs

Jobs, AppleGates, Microsoft

TelecomInternational DialingDigital CO SwitchInternational EmailTelephone hacking

Computing, NetworkingUNIX, CPASCAL, SmalltalkMini, MicrocomputersDial-up NW, Packet RadioTCP/IP

Standards, OSI Model,Structured Programming

PCs, email, Basic Internet,Demystification of VLSIHAL 9000

2001, A Space Odyssey

1970’s ARPA Gets a D Defense - More Development, Less Research

Japanese computer threat (like the automobile)US Semiconductors business drops: 75% to 40%

Government-supported research: ‘military relevance’

General skepticism about the role of science

DOD funding for mathematics, CS: two-decade low in 19751986 dropoff in engineering students (1 generation)

ARPA director - industrial background Applications with short time horizons, months instead of years

1980’s Desktop Computing, Email, Divestiture, Netheads

Social and Political Berlin Wall FallsDOD in decline

Drives less R&DNSF Adds $ to ResearchDialup Computer Services(ruined Bell traffic models)Netheads vs BellheadsPowerful Desktops SUN

High-speed graphics, Ethernet, VLSI

TelecomSynchronous Optical NetworkTAT-8ATM/Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network

ComputingElectronic Bulletin Boards TCP/IP.gov .com .eduSEMATECH public/private40% homes w/computersAccidental virusInternet Worm

Huge Base of UsersDomain Names, Optical NW

Less basic research,Anti-virus Software

Developing the Network - “Cyberspace”

1990’s Color Optics, World Wide Web, Internet Bubble

Social and Politicalhttp.//www.WorldWideWeb browser

Berners-Lee, CERNScramble to support researchSecure Internet TransactionsE-commerceVoIP (Toll bypass)3rd Generation Partnership ProjectNet traffic

Doubles every 6 monthYahoo

Networking#data users=#phone usersusers WWW., browser, Secure Socket LayerComponent software JAVA, Color opticsVoIP standards, IP PBXs

Overbuilt Backbone hides QoSFailings, Internet Bubble

BrowsersE-Commerce,

International email

Color Optics and Telecome Overinvestment "Surfing the net" -Vint Cerf

2000’s Broadband, World Wide Wait, Spam, What QoS?

Social and PoliticalPeering VoIP difficulties‘The Google’ Real Y2K problem is .com BombSocial NetworkingViruses and SPAMIP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)Next Generation Network (NGN)IPv6 supports ATM, MPLS ideasFlow Routing“Net Neutrality” concept

Google is a VerbProblems with Real-Time IP,

Peering, Digital Divide,Network Neutrality Issues

Social Networking

Dot.Bombing and Recovering the Internet

Internet Cellular phones > wireline phones IP related revenue almost 3% GWPCarrier Grade VoIP not a realityFlow routing ideas

Internet and Beyond IP ”Two tin cans and a string” -anon

• TCP/IPv4! Phenomenal results after two decades.

• Must re-examine technological assumptions– cheap memory and processors– huge bandwidth

• Must define next generation requirements– crazy is OK…e.g. real-time applications work

• Must create the vision and fund the research– US R&D flat at 2.6 percent of GDP for FOUR decades– Federal share dropped from 2/3 to 1/4 of that

• Must NOT entrust research to corporations!

Alchemy! Innovation and Wealth “The greatest legal creation of wealth in history”

-John Doerr, VC

• During the Cold War, millions of taxpayer dollars were funneled into basic research in computing

• That Money emerged 40 years later as private wealth:– Start-ups and IPO’s – VCs and Investment Bankers

• Is that money being re-circulated into US basic research?– Lear Jets and vacation homes– The “Trickle Out” theory

• Are innovators rewarded proportionately?– More MBAs than Engineering degrees…

• Quality and reliability - casualties of this gold rush?

Real-time Voice/Video and Data Traffic How Different Are They? Fundamentally.

Voice or Video Traffic• Real-Time (human speech)• Continuous, full duplex• Tolerant of errors, lost packets• Intolerant of transmission delays• Lost packets can’t be retransmitted

Data Traffic• Not Real-Time (email, web browsing)• Bursty• Intolerant of errors, lost packets must be resent• Tolerant of delays

Real-Time and IP Layer 8:

The human eye, ear, brain

IP Philosophy - Let the higher-level protocols recover from lost packets3 million years of evolution, no upgrades likely soon!different protocols, different ISP delays, firewalls,..

ATM Forum: “Just give us a bit” - Netheads IP by-passes QoS potential of ATM Solving a different problem (data)

MPLS - ATM without cellsRTP - Real-Time Packet protocol

Sequence and relative timestampAnti-tromboningNow you KNOW you have jitter!

Tragedy of the CommonsNet Neutrality: Every packet for itself!

• Peer-2-peer networks, Gamers, Spammers • Google rankings ploys• Myspace media madness, • Broadcast TV, Video on demand• Reliable User Data Protocol (RUDP)

Sends multiple copies of the same packet

Receiver discards redundant packets

ONE of the packets will make the journey!

Excellent solution for congestion: Add packets!

Strong Rise in Symmetric Peer-to-peer Applications

P2P Symmetrical

Usage

• More than ½ of all Internet traffic is peer-to-peer file sharing– Soon “robotic” application traffic will dominate networks

• P2P traffic is often symmetric (same amount upstream and downstream)– thwarts traffic models and architectures

The Perfect Network

• Adjust network to user, not user to network • Self-healing when a node is ‘lost’• Self-provisioning when a node is ‘added’• Self-balancing network, minimal traffic engineering!• Don’t let me start unless I can finish

– Closed-loop applications - remote medicine

• Priorities based on USER choices• Real-time traffic accomodated• Secure, control spam, denial of service, etc.

Who? “The network is the computer.”

- Scott McNealy

Desktop computing has grown too complex, ugly Backup, security, compatibility, cookies, browsers, etc.Frustrated users abound…nerd market saturated

ASP (Google-type) Calendar - other ‘office’ applications? Are Traditional carriers are the most logical providers of the‘new network’?

Have done dialtone, videotone, and wirelesstone for a long time More reliable, predictable, and credible than computer industry Ubiquity: Web-site tone, you-name-it tone to all of us Know how to bill millions of people for billions of transactions Have the infrastructure and field service, “the man in the van”

Now What?

• Fund science education (eliminate AP Classes?)• Fund taxpayer-owned basic research

– Civilians in charge, NASA, IPTO as models– No corporate secrecy or backwards compatibility requirements– No company can bury or force direction on research

• Research is NOT a Manhattan Project. Start soon!!! • Do we regulate ‘web-tone’ for the ‘Better Good’?

– E.g. AT&T Long-distance service subsidies for remote services– Need reliable infrastructure, not peering problems

• Go beyond entrenched IP Players - create diverse sets of network designers and dreamers (women too!)

…. Smoke a Peace Pipe and share some knowledge!

Final: Who said it?The term "cyberspace" has past its sell-by date… The

problem is that everything has become an aspect of, well, cyberspace… The internet feels less like an alternate world that we 'go to' and more like just another layer of life."

Final: Who said it?

The term "cyberspace" has past its sell-by date… The problem is that everything has become an aspect of, well, cyberspace… The internet feels less like an alternate world that we 'go to' and more like just another layer of life."

William Gibson(Coined the term ‘cyberspace’ in his 1984 Neuromanser sci-fi novel.)