trendsurfing: catching the waves of the future
DESCRIPTION
How to identify key technology, demographic, social and business trends, and how use them to prepare for the future. Presented by Lee CowherdTRANSCRIPT
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Trendsurfing:Catching the Waves of the Future
Lee Cowherd, SPHR
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Where Were You in ’92?
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Key Trend “Currents”
– Technology– Demographics– Culture/Global– Workplace– Industry– Profession
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Technology Waves
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Technology Waves
Convergence– Computers will disappear– Internet/Phone/Computer– Undermining old technology
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Technology Waves
NetWorld– Where everybody knows
your name (and almost everything else!)
– Cloud computing– Internet of things
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Demographic Waves
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Demographic Waves
The Graying of America– US population 2010 = 300 million– US population 2020 = 325 million
8% increase
– US population 65+ 2010 = 40 million– US population 65+ 2020 = 54 million
35% increase
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Demographic Waves
The Graying of America– Septuagenarian population
explosion– Squaring the age pyramid
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Mexico 2010
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Canada 2010
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1980
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2000
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2010
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2030
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2050
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Demographic Waves
A Nation of Immigrants– Asian and Hispanic
populations are projected to more than double by 2050
– Non-Hispanic White population is projected to decline 6%
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Culture Waves
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Culture Waves
Global vs. Tribal– Globalization of culture– Individuals seek identity in
“tribes” – social, cultural, ethnic, religious, virtual
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Culture Waves
It Isn’t Easy Being Green– Peak oil– “Green Collar” jobs– Conspicuous frugality
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Workplace Waves
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Workplace Waves
Will you Boomers please retire?– Where have all the dollars
gone?– Social (In)-Security– The new old– Seniority squeeze
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Workplace Waves
Workplace Yoga– How flexible can you be?– “Work is not a place you go,
it’s something you do.”– Millies & Boomers – There’s an app for that
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Workplace Waves
Employees or contractors?– Want benefits with that?– Life in the projects– Me, Inc.
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Riding the Waves
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Riding the Waves
Identify certain or near-certain trends– Demography is Destiny– “You canna change the laws
of economics!”– You have to pay your bills
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Riding the Waves
Hindsight is 20/20 (with the right lenses)– When were conditions
similar to today?– If they knew then what we
know now…– What’s different now?
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Riding the Waves
Beware of linear projections– The future will be just like
today, only more of it.– Look for “trend-benders” and
“game-changers”
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Riding the Waves
Ask “What if…”– …this trend continues?– …this potential event
occurs?– …this highly unlikely event
occurs?
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Riding the Waves
Experiment with the future– If – and – and – then – so – But . . .
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Riding the Waves
Preparation vs. Prediction– Packing your bags– Build “robust” strategies– Continually monitor trends
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Resources• US Census Bureau
www.census.gov• US Dept. of Labor
www.dol.gov• Pew Research
pewresearch.org• Kentucky State Data Center
ksdc.louisville.edu• SHRM
www.shrm.org
• Workforce.comwww.workforce.com
• Harvard Business Reviewhbr.org
• Wired.comwww.wired.com
• UK iWinwww.uky.edu/Centers/iwin
• Newsmagazines• Newspapers• Blogs
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Join the Conversation
http://trendsurferblog.com
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Trendsurfing:Catching the Waves of the Future
Lee Cowherd, SPHR