trends in the global fresh produce industry: focus on citrus
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Trends in the Global Fresh Produce Industry: Focus on Citrus. DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis November 2005. World Area and Production of Fruits and Vegetables, Million Metric Tons and Hectares. Source: FAO. Food Demand Trends. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Trends in the Global Fresh Produce Industry:
Focus on Citrus
Trends in the Global Fresh Produce Industry:
Focus on Citrus
DR. ROBERTA COOKDept. of Ag and Resource Economics
University of California Davis
November 2005
World Area and Production of Fruits and Vegetables, Million Metric Tons and Hectares
Source: FAOSource: FAO
2004 1990 Fruit Area 52.1 41.2 Fruit Production 497.4 351.6 Vegetable Area 51.3 31.0 Vegetable Production
855.1
462.1
103.4 Total Area
Total Production
1,352
72.2
813.7
Food Demand Trends• Global per capita availability of fruits and
vegetables grew from 155 kg in 1990 to 212 in 2004.
• Consumers in Latin American and Asia are registering the fastest growth in food demand in the world – in the face of slow growth mature food markets in the developed world.
• Growing global importance of supermarket chains plays a key role in stimulating fresh produce trade – shelf space needs to be full year-round. This is a positive factor for citrus demand.
Convergence…Supermarket Share of Grocery Sales, by Selected
Country
0
20
40
60
80
100
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%
USA FranceBrazil & Korea China
Source: Tom Reardon
13%
15%
13%10%
15%
1%
11%21%
AppleOther DeciduousGrapeOrangeOther CitrusBananaOther TropicalBerry
The 2004 World Fruit Pie, Share of Production
Source: World Apple Review 2005
79-81 89-91 99-01 02-04 02-04 v. 89-91-
%
Total Citrus 59,321 77,073 103,620 106,274 +38%
Oranges 38,751 53,578 63,433 61,808 +15%
Other Citrus
20,570 23,495 40,187 44,466 +89%
Total Fruit 275,663 311,642 440,242 458,736 +47%
World Production of Citrus and Total Fruit, 1,000 Metric Tons
• This compares with 40% growth in population.• Citrus production growth has lagged
population as demand has diversified for other fruit.
• On the other hand, developing countries are increasing consumption of fresh produce, including citrus, as incomes improve.
• Developing countries also have higher rates of population growth.
• Trade liberalization through the WTO is opening markets and reducing tariffs.
Citrus markets and trade will continue to diversify: – between 1990 and 2003 imports of oranges,
tangerines and clementines into all countries grew by an average of 23%, v. 20% into developed countries and 39% into developing countries.
– between 1990 and 2003 imports of grapefruit and pomelos into all countries grew by 9%, v. 6% into developed countries and 63% into developing countries.
The US and the EU dominate global horticultural trade.
Source: World Apple Review 2005
U.S. Horticultural Imports and Exports by Key Product Category, $Billion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 EX
P
1999 IMP
2000 EX
P
2000 IMP
2001 EX
P
2001 IMP
2002 EX
P
2002 IMP
2003 EX
P
2003 IMP
2004 EX
P
2004 IMP
Process/Other
Tree Nuts
Nursery/Flower
Wine
Fresh
Source: FAS/USDA, as compiled by Roberta Cook.
EU Exports of Horticultural Products by Category
$0$5
$10$15$20$25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Other Fresh Fruit
Processed Fruit & Vegetables Wine & Beer
Tree Nuts Fresh Vegetables
Fruit & Vegetable Juices
Billion
Source: Global Trade Atlas, includes: Vegetables, Fruits, Nuts, Essential Oils, Nursery Products, Cut Flowers, Wine, and Beer.
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
Brazil China MexicoUSA Spain ArgentinaJ apan Korea
Total Consumption of Fresh Oranges in Selected Countries, in 1000 Metric Tons (excludes processing)
Source:FAS PSDOct. 2005
05
101520253035
1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Apples Mandarin/orangesGrapes StrawberriesBananas PearsPeaches Other FreshTotal Fresh
Japan: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit in kg
Source: World Apple Review 2005
05
1015202530354045
1990 1995 97- 98 98- 99 99- 00 00- 01 '01- 02 '02- 03
Apples Oranges
Bananas Other Fresh
Total Fresh
United Kingdom: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit, in kg
Source: World Apple Review 2005
United Kingdom: Per Capita Weekly Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables, by Age
Group, 2002-03, grams
Source: World Apple Review 2005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
< 30 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75 & >
Fruit
Veg.
0
2
4
6
8
10
Oranges Lemons Grapefruit
USA: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Citrus in kilos, 1976-2004
Source: ERS/USDA
05
10152025303540
1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mexico Spain Korea
China J apan
Per Capita Consumption of Oranges, Selected Countries, in kilos
Sources: FAS/USDA PSD, Oct. 2005 and IDB demographic data, as compiled by Roberta Cook.
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oranges, all Fresh J uice
USA: Per Capita Consumption of Oranges, Fresh and Juice, kilos, 1976-2004
Source: ERS/USDA
Obesity Goes Global: Globesity!• WHO estimates that obesity grew from 200
million people in 1995 to over 300 million in 2000.
• 115 million of the obese live in developing countries.
• Even in France, obese people are now 11% (vs. 8% in 2000) of the population and expected to reach 20% in 2020.
• The number of obese people in Britain almost tripled between 1980 and 2001; overweight or obese pre-school children doubled in the 90s.
Concern over Globesity Affects Public Policy • Fresh produce is set to benefit. • Competition from non-healthy snack foods is
finally being challenged by health messages and changes in availability, such as in schools.
• Growing evidence on the health benefits of fresh citrus must be aggressively communicated and promoted, to all age groups.
• Citrus can be made more convenient to consume, witness the launching of Sunkist’s Fun Fruit program.
Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
30 grocery retailers account for 29% of modern global grocery retail sales.
TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004
Wal-Mart U.S. 285.2 138.72 1
Carrefour/Promodès France 90.3 84.54 2
Ahold Holland 88.8 75.03 3
Germany/Switz 70.1 38.35 8
Tesco U.K. 62.2 50.45 4
U.S. 56.4 41.22 6
Germany 50.7 41.54 5
Costco U.S. 47.1 30.74 13
Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005
TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004
Target U.S. 46.9 17.15 26
Aldi Germany 43.0 38.75 12
Schwarz Germany 42.6 37.79 11
ITM France 42.3 32.47 18
U.S. 40.0 28.78 17
AEON UK 38.8 30.13 14
Walgreen’s U.S. 37.5 14.53 31
Auchan France 37.3 30.22 15
Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
Safeway U.S. 35.8 29.54 16
Ito-Yokado Japan 39.5 37.52 9
France 32.8 22.72 19
Edeka Germany 32.5 33.11 7
CVS U.S. 30.6 10.16 38
Tengelmann Germany 29.8 21.73 20
Casino France 28.8 37.53 10
Sainsbury U.K. 28.2 23.02 21
TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004Net Sales Grocery Net
Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005
Coles Myer Australia 23.7 14.37 30
Morrisons 25.5 20.06 24
Delhaize “Le Lion” Belgium22.3 18.58 23
Woolworths Australia 20.7 16.46 22
Loblaw Canada 20.1 17.41 25
El Corte Ingles 19.2 5.44 62Total Estimated Top 30 1,054.42Others 2,610.33Total Worldwide 3,664.75
Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005
TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004
Retail Banner Sales Grocery Company ($ billion) Sales ($ billion)
Source: PlanetRetail as compiled by Roberta Cook.
TOP GROCERY RETAILERS IN MEXICO, 2004
Wal-Mart 13.2 5.9
Soriana 3.9 2.4
Gigante 2.9 2.0
Comercial Mexicana 2.6 1.8
OXXO 2.1 1.5
Costco 1.4 .81
Chedraui 1.2 .66
HEB .64 .58
Retail Banner Sales Grocery Company ($ billion) Sales ($ billion)
Source: PlanetRetail as compiled by Roberta Cook
TOP GROCERY RETAILERS IN MEXICO, 2004
Carrefour .72 .50
Calimax .31 .27
Subtotal Top 10 28.76 16.35
Other 54.41 49.71
Total 83.164 49.713
Top 10 grocery retailers account for 25% of
modern grocery retail sales in Mexico. Much of
food sales move through traditional channels.
Key Drivers• global retail players
• global retail brands?
• growing role of private labels
• retailer–supplier contracts/partnerships, interest in large year-round suppliers
• declining role of spot market
• Suppliers all coming up to the same level