trends in the global cotton market: where does africa stand?
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Trends in the Global Cotton Market: Where Does Africa Stand?. Dr. Alejandro Plastina , Economist International Cotton Advisory Committee 11 th Congress of A.C.A. - Lomé , Togo - March 22, 2013. Past Trends in Cotton Production. World Cotton Production and Mill Use. Million tons. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Trends in the Global Cotton Market: Where Does Africa Stand?
Dr. Alejandro Plastina , EconomistInternational Cotton Advisory Committee
11th Congress of A.C.A. - Lomé, Togo - March 22, 2013
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Past Trends in Cotton Production
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1950/51
1951/52
1952/53
1953/54
1954/55
1955/56
1956/57
1957/58
1958/59
1959/60
1960/61
1961/62
1962/63
1963/64
1964/65
1965/66
1966/67
1967/68
1968/69
1969/70
1970/71
1971/72
1972/73
1973/74
1974/75
1975/76
1976/77
1977/78
1978/79
1979/80
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09, est.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
10,000
20,000
30,00025,948.9
23,286.6
Million tons
World Cotton Production and Mill Use
Production
Mill Use
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1,635.3
Cotton Production in Africa
Production
Share of World ProductionMillion tons
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%4,828.0
Cotton Area in Africa
AreaShare of World Area
Million hectares
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World Average Yield (rainfed + irrigated)
80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
339
Kg/ha762
576
Africa: Avg. 362
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0.0
400.0
800.0
1,200.01,007.2
437.0
123.7
Francophone Africa
North Africa
Africa: Cotton Production by Region
Million tons
East and Southern Africa
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0.00
900.00
1,800.00
2,700.00Francophone Africa
North Africa
Africa: Cotton Area by RegionMillion hectares
East and Southern Africa
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
400
800
1,200
Francophone Africa
North Africa
Africa: Yields by RegionKilograms of lint per hectare
East and Southern Africa
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
323.4
Cotton Mill Use in Africa
Mill Use
Share of World Mill Use
Million tons
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
1,000
2,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1,388.2
Cotton Exports in Africa
Exports
Share of World ExportsMillion tons
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Future Trends in Cotton Supply and Use
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80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000Million Hectares
World Cotton Area
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Technological Changes in Agriculture
• Mechanization• Synthetic fertilizers• Insecticides• Herbicides• Biotechnology• ?
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95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
19/20
20/21
400
500
600
700
800
Average World YieldKg/ha
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80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000Million Tons
World Cotton Production
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
2013/14, for
2014/15, for
2015/16, for
2016/17, for
2017/18, for
2018/19, for
2019/20, for
2020/21
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cotton Area in AfricaMillion hectares
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
2013/14, for
2014/15, for
2015/16, for
2016/17, for
2017/18, for
2018/19, for
2019/20, for
2020/21
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cotton Production in AfricaMillion tons
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African Cotton: Buyers Perceptions
Positives:High QualityFewer Neps
Negatives:ContaminatedDeclining AvailabilityDifficult LogisticsHand classed
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1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
05
101520253035
25
27
30
34Million Tons
World Consumption of New Cotton Textiles
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Share of Africa in World Consumption of New Cotton
Textiles
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
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0
100
200
300
400
500Thousand Tons
Africa Consumption of New Cotton Textiles
Domestic production or imported?
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African Cotton Sector: other issues
Yarn production: China ASEAN Africa?
Global futures contract: FOB African port?
Second hand clothing?
Can problems be solved? CFC/ICAC Project on Sudan cotton stickiness. $95 million extra revenue 1997-2009
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Thank you for you attention
www.icac.org
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Short Term Forecasts
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Growth in World Cotton Mill Use
-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%
2% 3% 1%10%
6% 6%0%
-11%
7%
-4% -7% 2% 2%
Growth in World GDP
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2.3%
2.9%3.6%
4.9% 4.6% 5.3%5.4%2.8%
-0.7%
5.1% 3.9%3.2% 3.5%
4.1%
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1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09, est.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
2013/14, for
0
10,000
20,000
30,00025,948.9
23,202.2
23,286.6
24,015.7
Million tons
World Cotton Production and Mill Use
Production
Mill Use
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
100008,289.6
4,706.6
2,336.01,325.0 896.9 800.0 740.3
7,875.1
5,177.3
2,546.3
1,378.0 896.9 880.0 740.3
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Cotton Mill Use by Country
Million tons
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000 7,300.0
5,610.0
3,703.5
2,092.51,300.01,000.0
5,844.0 5,594.5
2,533.61,951.7
1,038.9 999.7 756.0 457.11,479.0
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Cotton Production by CountryMillion tons
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USA India Aust. Brazil Uzbk. Africa0
1,000
2,000
3,000 2,776.0
877.91,100.0
642.0 571.7
1,388.2
2,333.3
781.4 738.2463.3
917.5
1,520.7
11/12 12/13 13/14
Cotton Exports by CountryMillion tons
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02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
02000400060008000
10000China Rest of the World
World Cotton ImportsMillion tons
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Cotton Imports by Country
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2,996.4
850.8 747.3 507.9 526.7 369.7
2,003.2
877.3 927.9501.7 452.0 351.6
11/12 12/13 13/14
Million tons
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02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8China RoW SMU SMU WLC
World ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratio
Stocks-to-use ratioMillion tons
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02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
World Cotton Ending Stocks
Million tons Stocks to use ratio
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08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
3,585.1 2,687.6 2,086.56,181.0 8,167.9 8,120.0
8,356.55,988.6 7,518.4
7,882.18,729.6 7,340.9
China World less China
Location of Global Cotton Stocks
Million tons
China’s Share of Global Cotton Stocks(10-year avge to 10/11: 28%)
30% 31% 22% 44% 48% 53%
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2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/130
200
400
600
800
Extra-Fine
Extra-fine CottonThousand tons
1.9% 1.9% 1.9%2.3%
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/120
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000 Organic
Organic and Fairtrade
Fairtrade
CmiA
BCI
Identity CottonsThousand tons
1.0% 1.4% 1.3%
2.2%
Share of World Total1.8%
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DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTONAND PRICES
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
0
2
4
6
8
40.0
110.0
180.0165
1.00
Billion US$ A Index (US$/lb)
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WORLD PRODUCTION UNDER DIRECT ASSISTANCE
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
Without Assistance With Assistance
48%
Million Tons
Average With Assistance: 53% 84% 49%
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ChinaUSA
Turkey EUMali
Colombia
Cote D'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
Senegal0
1
2
32.22
0.820.43 0.36
0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00
2010/11 2011/12Billion US$
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
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SpainGreece
ColombiaTurkey
ChinaUSA
Cote d'Ivore Mali
Senegal
Burkina Faso0.0
0.5
1.0
0.68
0.44
0.26 0.260.14 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.03 0.01
2010/11 2011/12US$/lb
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
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