Trends in network traffic

Mike Norris17th May 2006

Agenda

• Dialectics• Projections of future behaviour• Network capacity• Growth factors and restraints• Actual measured traffic• Other metrics• Some conclusions

Syllogism

1. “When I hit Enter on my laptop, I want the solution to this very complex calculation to appear on my screen as a volumetric rendering, within a fraction of a second.”

2. “There isn’t enough bandwidth”3. “So, we must redouble our efforts, light more

dark fibre.”

Caveat

“Fanaticism consists of redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim.”

George Santayana

Counter-caveat

“Almost every wise saying has an opposite one, no less wise, to balance it.”

George Santayana

Some projections (Serenate 2003)

• Very demanding applications are coming• Network requirements will grow dramatically

over the next 5 – 10 years• GÉANT long-term trend-line is 80 times

increase in 5 years• Tbps networking will be everywhere by the

end of the decade

Projection (Serenate 2003)

Expected increase in core capacity, 2000 and 2005 (Terena Compendium)

Increase factor

NRENs

2 LT, LU

10 EE, FI, FR, HU, LV, NO, SK, SE, TR

100 CZ, DE, ES

Increase factor

NRENs

1 HU, LU

2 BE, CH, DE, IL, NL

3 CY

5 CZ, DK, GR, HR, LT, NO, PT, SE, UK

10 BU, ES, IE, IS, SI, SK

GÉANT and predecessorsPan-European network history

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

IXI (1990-1993)

EuropaNET (1993-1996)

EuropaNET 2 (1996-1997)

TEN-34 (1997-1998)

TEN-155 (1998-2001)

GÉANT (2001-)

Bandwidth (Kbps)

Growth factors - intrinsic

• More client institutions• More users• More pervasive use• More intensive applications• Research users• Research infrastructures• New sectors (e.g. schools)

Growth factors - extrinsic

• More money• Economies of scale• Wavelength cheaper than SDH• Gigantism: 100G – “because it’s there”• Peer pressure• Networking research

Growth inhibitors (Ed Seidel, TNC2005)

• You don’t provide enough (end-to-end) bandwidth!

• You don’t provide enough QoS• The last mile problem…

Limiting factors (not boundary conditions)

• Core constituency is finite• Saturation of core constituency• Learning and thinking• Digital divide• Lower limit on telco cost-cutting• Time is finite• Occam’s razor (entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem)

HEAnet trends since 1991

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Valu

e re

lativ

e to

199

1

Traffic

Access b/w

External b/w

Staff

Clients

Growth trends

TEN-155 and GÉANTAnnual growth of total traffic

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Q4 1999 Q4 2000 Q4 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2005

Traffic growth, by NREN

Mean annual growth of pan-European traffic

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Nov 1999 - Nov 2003

Nov 2003 - Nov 2005

Measured monthly traffic

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Traf

fic (T

Byte

s)

Internet exchanges (1)

• INEX, Dublin

• VIX, Vienna

• MIX-IT, Milan

Internet exchanges (2)

• NIX, Prague

• AMS-IX, Amsterdam

• DE-CIX, Frankfurt

Internet exchanges (3)

• JPIX, Tokyo

• TORIX, Toronto

DNS queries to master IE nameserver

Domains in .de

Domains in .IT

RIPE host countNumber of DNS domains

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

Europe

IE

Some conclusions

• What do users want?• Review projections – use feedback• Publish results, trends• Be clear and consistent

What users want (1) (Serenate)

• Networking which is cheap, reliable, technically up-to-date and easy to use.

• Complexity should be hidden as much as possible• Support for video-conferencing services• Support for integrated IP communications• Support services for end-to-end performance.• Advanced applications which will enable new ways of

working.

What users want (2) (Serenate)

• Mobility, access from anywhere• Growing volumes of data• No charging at point-of-use, but…. • …marginal cost charging for infrastructure for

advanced services • Distance learning• Guidance on likely future developments

A reality check

• Projection

• Actual

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Traf

fic (T

Byt

es)

È un altro paio di maniche

Utilization trends

05

1015202530

LightpathsIP PeakIP Average

GbpsNetwork Capacity Limit

Jan 2005

Questions?

• Most discoveries are made locally, either at home or a few streets away (J Roth)