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1 Future ICE technology - Automotive Megatrends USA 2013.pptx

Automotive megatrends 2013

Dearborn, March 19th, 2013

Trends in ICE-Technologies


Besides Electrification, improvements in conventional powertrain technologies will play a major role looking forward

Source: Roland Berger

US Europe China Japan

Sm

all

M

ed

ium

P

rem

ium

S

UV

BEVs

Downsized

gasoline

PHEVs

BEVs Small

downsized

gasoline

Gasoline

HEVs

Downsized

gasoline

Mild

hybrids

48V

Hy-

brid

Strong

downsized

gasoline

PHEVs

Medium

downsized

gasoline BEVs

48V

Hy-

brid

Strong

Gaso-

line

HEVs

48V

Hy-

brid

BEVs

Strong

downsized

Diesel

Small

downsized

Gasoline

Down-

sized

Gasoline

Gasoline

HEVs

Mild

hybrids

Diesel

HEVs


The combustion engine will see major developments in the next years to leverage its potential for efficiency increase

MAJOR TRENDS IN FUTURE COMBUSTION ENGINES

PO

WE

RT

RA

IN S

YS

TE

MS

E

XH

AU

ST

G

AS

Technology/ component

Turbochargers

Fuel injection

Valvetrain (VVT/VVL)

Electric power steering (EPS)

Electric auxiliaries/cooling

Integrated starter generator (ISG)

Advanced transmissions

Exhaust gas recovery

HCCI/CAI

Improved combustion process

Catalysts/particulate filters

Adv. DeNOX systems

A

Exhaust gas recirculation

Technological maturity

Market entry barriers

Benefits/ Costs

Trend/market outlook

C

B

D



The market for turbo-chargers is expected to grow strongly in the coming years

Charging technologies are expected to grow strongly until 2025 driven mainly by multi stage and superchargers

Key trends and market development until 2025

Key trends

• Turbochargers have CO2 emissions reduction potential of downsizing engines up to 12% for diesel engines/ 14% for gasoline engines

• They provide increased driving comfort through optimized torque characteristics – At strongly downsized engines additional variable or multi-stage due to drivability

• Customers will directly benefit from this technology through lower fuel consumption and better driving performance

• Turbocharged gasoline engines to become standard application in Europe (already standard for diesel engines)

• VTG charger are already rolled out or will be rolled out by 2015 in Europe, China, India, Japan/Korea and Russia; in NAFTA, it will remain insignificant even by 2025

• As for other charging technologies (incl. multi-stage and supercharging), they are partly still in development will remain low in market shares, even in 2025, but will enjoy strong growth until then

Moderate growth Strong growth Significant growth

MARKET DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2025


A TURBOCHARGING


Conventional turbochargers will see very high penetration in the Triad markets

Source: Roland Berger market model

Technology Market

Conven-

tional

VTG

Multi Stage

Super

charged

Triad

Emerging

Triad

Emerging

Segment 2012 2015 2025 2020

Premium

Other

Premium

Other

Premium

Other

Premium

Other

Triad

Emerging

Premium

Other

Premium

Other

Triad

Emerging

Premium

Other

Premium

Other

>5% >10% >20% Penetration level: >30%

Penetration level of >5% won't be reached up to 2025



A TURBOCHARGING


VTGs, twin scroll and multi-stage turbos are available and in usage – For e-turbo, technical challenges need to be solved

1) Illustrative penetration among charged engines

2) Variable turbine geometry, variable nozzle geometry

3) Turbo with e-motor support

Key trends – Turbo charger technologies

E-turbo3) Multi-stage Twin scroll VTG2)

Benefits • High specific

power

• No turbo lack

• High specific

power

• Reduction of

turbo lack

• Reduction of

turbo lack

• Control of EGR

Limitations

compared to

conventional turbo

• Very high cost

• Required electric

power

• High cost

• Complex control

• Slightly higher cost • Higher cost

• Temperature resis-

tance (usage in

gasoline engines)


A TURBOCHARGING

Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline

Penetration1)

Technology

maturity ✓ (✓) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓


With ongoing demand for improved thermal management, cooling auxiliary parts will be increasingly electrified until 2025


B ELECTRIC AUXILIARIES/COOLING



The market for auxiliary electrics and cooling is expected to grow strongly in the coming years

Key trends MARKET DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2025 • Currently most auxiliaries are driven by the belt drive, partly on-demand

supply (e.g. BMW climate compressor)

• Water pumps are increasingly electrified (e.g. supplied by KS Pierburg for BMW)

• Further thermal management such as oil pump and climate compressor components will be electrified

• Brushed motors are utilized to increase fuel efficiency in the future (e.g. VW and GM for CFM)

• Trend to beltless engines in the long-term (initially planned for Daimler "MOVE" engines)


Electric auxiliaries replace mechanical components in the thermal management system

Overview development of electric auxiliaries

Refrigerant circuit Cooling medium circuit

• Electric components will be utilized in future thermal management systems

• The higher share of electric motors shifts the Tier-1 supply from mechanical towards electric suppliers

Electric Compressor

Heat exchanger

Electric water pump

Chiller

Electric solenoid valve

Electric solenoid valves

Evapora

tor

Coolin

g fan m

odule

Condeser

Battery

Coolin

g

module

TECHNOLOGY SPLIT 2010 vs. 2020 [%]1)

9%

60%

On-demand/

electric

auxiliaires

Conventional

auxiliaries

2025E

40%

2010

91%

100% 100%

1) Europe, gasoline + diesel

Thermal management system

COMMENTS


B ELECTRIC AUXILIARIES/COOLING


The market for exhaust heat recovery will grow moderately driven by heat-to-heat exchangers and TEG


C EXHAUST GAS HEAT RECOVERY



The market for different exhaust heat recovery solutions is expected to grow strongly in the coming years

Key trends MARKET DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2025 • Upcoming CO2 regulation will fasten introduction of exhaust gas heat

recovery systems

• For conventional powertrain, focus in the short-term will be on Heat-to-Heat transfer to shorten cold-start progress

• There is currently a hype for thermoelectrics with first implementations plans for 2015 – But even with expected technology enhancements powertrain efficiency gains will be limited

• Turbo-compounding and Rankine cycles (Heat-to-Power) will be focused in MD/HD commercial vehicles, as they have less package restrictions

• Other heat recovery systems are not expected to be introduced before ~2025


Heat-to-Heat and thermal electricity will become main exhaust gas heat recovery technologies for light cars

Overview of heat recovery systems

RATIONALE

• Turbocharger shaft for extracting power from the exhaust gas, electricity via small generator between turbine and compressor

• Second turbine in the exhaust to further obtain usable energy from the exhaust gas, power transferred to crankshaft

• Heat recovery via exhaust heat exchanger operating turbine/expander, heat rejection via condenser

• Regeneration of exhaust heat in separate compressor (close to engine), heat transferred to crankshaft

• Various other thermodynamic cycles, less mature than ORC, focus on reducing complexity

• Heat up oil/cabin (cold start optimization) • Relatively easy to integrate, however

potential only at cold start

• Very low efficiencies • Today, primarily fundamental research

• Two different materials in a heat flow using a temperature difference can generate electricity (Seebeck effect)

Electrical

Organic rankine cycle (ORC)

Simplified rankine ("Heat-to-Power")

Other cycle (Ericson, Joule, Stirling)

Thermoelectric generator (TEG)

Exhaust heat exchanger

Mechanical

Thermoaccoustic, catalytic, …

PRINCIPLE/ TECHNIQUE

Turbocompounding

Thermo-dynamic cycle

Thermal electricity

Heat-to-Heat

Other

ENGINE EXHAUST

Mature technologies

Main technologies

for light cars




Exhaust heat exchangers have already high maturity – TEG will leverage it package advantages in the long term

POTENTIAL BY PWT-TYPE POTENTIAL BY SEGMENT

Effi-ciency

Packa-ging

Costs Transient operation

Maturity ICE Hybrid Range extender

Premium light veh.

Volume light veh.

Truck

Heat-to-Heat + 0 + + + + + + + − − ++ + −

TEG − + − − − − − + + − − − −

Rankine (ORC) − − − − − − 0 − − 0 + − − − +

Other cycle (heat to power)

− 0 − − − − − − − − − − − − − −

Other (thermoaccoustic etc.)

− − 0 − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − −

• Exhaust heat exchanger high potential to increase cold-start efficiency for ICEs (also in combination with integration manifolds)

• In the long term most promising concepts for light vehicle are TEG, however today technology expensive with low efficiency (<5%)

• For trucks, Turbo-Compounds see beneficial, as the are advantageous at constant driving conditions

Technology assessment exhaust gas heat recovery systems (technology level today)

Source: Interviews; Roland Berger

Turbo-compound

01) − − − − + 0 − + 0 − − 0

1) Turbocompound only efficient in stationary operating points, recently also rejected by CV OEMs



Due to legislation reasons, DeNOx systems will enjoy strong growth in all regions



D ADVANCED DeNOxSYSTEMS


The market for advanced DeNOx systems is expected to grow strongly in the coming years

Key trends MARKET DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2025 • DeNOx technologies have high potential due to upcoming legislations;

e.g. they are required in EU for EU 6 diesel engines and lean stratified gasoline engines

• These technologies are currently available almost only in Triad regions with partly low penetrations, and currently deployed mostly in the premium segment

• It is expected that DeNOx technologies will be widespread by 2015/2020 in Triad regions, and by 2025 in most other markets, with strong growth rates during these time periods

• DeNOx for Diesel engines will be more popular than Gasoline engines


Development of penetration level of DeNOx technologies – Diesel systems in Triad markets with fastest penetration

Source: Roland Berger market model

D ADVANCED DeNOxSYSTEMS

Other

Premium Emerging

Other

Diesel Premium Triad

Gasoline Premium Triad

Other

Premium Emerging

Other

>1% >5% >10% Penetration level:

Technology Market Segment 2012 2015 2025 2020

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