June 20th, 2019

Trends in Economic Development

avalanche

Introduction

We are strategists for

the nation’s top

performing economies.

avalanche

3

Agenda

Dominant Economic Trends

How We Got Here

Case Studies

RESILENCY

How do we prepare for technological, environmental, and

demographic disruptions?

TALENT

How do we deliver the

talent companies need to

thrive in prolonged period

of low unemployment?

INCLUSION

How do we unite

diverse stakeholders to

support a holistic

economic development

agenda?

Today’s Dominant

Economic

Development

Trends

Economic Development 1.0

Elephant Hunting

• Focus on large, capital intensive projects

• Land, financial incentives and regulatory climate are paramount.

• Labor plays a relatively minimal role in the site selection process

• CEDS process well aligned with ED reality

Economic Development 2.0

Talent is King

• Declining number of industrial projects.

• Growth among industries such as professional services and technology

• New operational requirements emphasize availability of talent.

• Focus on attracting highly skilled, mobile workers.

• CEDS process begins to show its age

Effective economic development planning must

adopt a holistic, inclusive approach

Economic Momentum

Sites & Product Development

Talent & Education Entrepreneurship & Innovation

Environment & Public Spaces

Environmental ResiliencyHuman Health & Safety

Arts, Culture & Recreation

Economic Mobility

Leadership & Public Policy

Civic Engagement

Transportation & Housing

ED 3.0

Slaying

Silos

The CEDS process provides the flexibly to focus

on what’s relevant to your community

Community A Community B

Communities throughout the US are facing

labor shortages.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1969 2019

Source: Avalanche Consulting / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Talent availability is essential in the site

selection process

How have site selection factors’ importance

changed for your prospects over the past year?

Source: Avalanche Consulting

Skilled

Workforce

2016

88%

Skilled

Workforce

2017

90%

Skilled

Workforce

2018

96%

More Important

11

Columbus, GA

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Avalanche Consulting / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Net Domestic In-Migration of College Educated

Individuals into Greater Columbus

12

Columbus, GA

Projected Annual Job Growth

Source: Avalanche Consulting / National Science Foundation / EMSI

Local College Degree Production

Business & Finance

2,185Business & Finance

4,685

Software & IT

52

Software & IT

452

13

Miami, FL

14

Any Town, USA

Source: Avalanche Consulting / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Wage, 2008 & 2018

$66K (+19.2%)

$61K (+21.9%)

$59K (+23.1%)

$58K (+21.7%)

$57K (+24.7%)

$55K (+24.9%)

$54K (21.4%)

$52K (21.4%)

$52K (+23.8%)

$43K (+17.7%)

$38K (+17.2%)

$K $10K $20K $30K $40K $50K $60K $70K

Any Town USA

Memphis

Southeastern US

Birmingham

Nashville

US

Huntsville

Atlanta

Dallas

Houston

$0

(19.2%)

(21.9%)

(23.1%)

(21.7%)

(24.7%)

(24.9%)

(21.4%)

(23.4%)

(21.8%)

(17.2%)

As memories of the Great Recession fade,

there’s a greater emphasis on shared prosperity

If economic growth correlated perfectly with

inclusive economic growth

ECONOMIC

GROWTH

INCLUSIVE GROWTH

Source: Avalanche Consulting / Brookings Institution

Regional economic growth has often failed to

deliver tangible benefits to individual residents.

Actual Rankings Among

100 Largest Metro Areas

Source: Avalanche Consulting / Brookings Institution

INCLUSIVE GROWTH

ECONOMIC

GROWTH

Inclusion becomes more than a buzzword

TOP 10% OF WAGE EARNERS BOTTOM 10% OF WAGE EARNERS

Wage gains in metro Atlanta trail many peer

regions and income disparities are greater.

12.0%14.1%

16.6%

13.6%

9.6%

4.3% 4.7%

8.6%6.6%

11.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Metro Atlanta Charlotte Dallas-Ft.Worth

Nashville Washington, DC

Source: Avalanche Consulting / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Change in Average Annual Wage, 2010 & 2018

5,047

-3,480

-672-98

4,8684,100

-5,000

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Influx of College Educated Migrants into Metro Atlanta

Talent attraction in metro Atlanta, however, has

been uneven in recent years and trails its peers.

Source: Avalanche Consulting / US Census Bureau

Strategy Outreach

• 150 interview & focus group participants

• Four Open Houses

• Online Survey

Collective Impact Framework

Common

Agenda

Communication

Common

Progress

Measures

Backbone

OrganizationMutually

Reinforcing

Activities

A Region that

Works for

Everyone

Centralina

Centralina

We’re all increasingly concerned about being

“Disrupted”

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Relative Popularity of the word “Disrupt” on Google

Source: Avalanche Consulting / Google

Climate Disruption is Increasingly Common

Billion Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters

Source: Avalanche Consulting / National Center for Environmental Information

39

50

107

1988 to 1997 1998 to 2017 2008 to 2017

1%

3%

14%Job Growth

Population Growth

Labor Force Growth

2011 – 2016

Increasing Reliance on Imported Talent

Source: Avalanche Consulting / US Census Bureau / EMSI

5,300

4,441

6,801New Households

New Homes Permitted

Homes Lost to the Fire

2011 – 2016

The Fire Worsened An Existing Housing Crisis

Source: Avalanche Consulting / US Census Bureau

• Recover from the October 2017 fires.

• Build necessary housing.

• Educate and support our workforce.

• Diversify existing business clusters.

• Be a leader in environmentally-sustainable practices.

Strategic Themes

Columbus, OH

Original 2020 Performance Goals

JOBS CAPITAL

INVESTMENT

PERSONAL

INCOME

150,000 $8 Billion 30%

Global Competitive Forces

Regional

Impact

DEMOGRAPHIC

• Aging Population

• Growing Diversity

• New Urbanization

TECHNOLOGICAL

• Automation Advances

• Mobility Revolution

• Datafication of Everything

ECONOMIC

• Rise of E-Commerce

• Global Power Moves Eastward

• The Decline of Dynamism

An Automated Future

Finance & Insurance Employment as % of Total Among

Metros with Population 1 to 3 million

COLUMBUS

5.0%

Source: Avalanche Consulting / EMSI

The Decline of Dynamism

Employment by Firms with 1,000+ Employees as % of Total

2014

COLUMBUS

55%

Source: Avalanche Consulting / US Census Bureau

Columbus, OH Performance

CONNECTEDINCLUSIVE

TALENTEDINNOVATIVE

PRODUCTIVE

PROSPEROUS

34

Metrics

METRIC DATA RELEASE COLUMBUS BIRMINGHAM, AL BEST PERFORMING WORST PERFORMING

Orlando, FL COL Richmond, VASep '18 58,832 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 1,709

BIR

Jacksonville, FL COL Baltimore, MD2019 Q1 29% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 9%

BIR

Nashville, TN COL Tucson, AZJanuary 2019 2.7% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 5.4%

BIR

Nashville, TN COL Buffalo, NYJanuary 2019 4.2% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 -1.0%

BIR

Denver, CO COL Buffalo, NYJanuary 2019 1,656 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 65

BIR

Indianapolis, IN COL San Jose, CA2018 Q4 86.1% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 12.7%

BIR

San Jose, CA COL Providence, RIQtr3 2018 8.6% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 0.6%

BIR

San Jose, CA COL Providence, RI2018 Q3 6.2% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 0.0%

BIR

Raleigh, NC COL Las Vegas, NVMarch 2019 19% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 7%

BIR

San Jose, CA COL Providence, RIDATE 6.2% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 0.0%

AUS

Raleigh, NC COL Las Vegas, NVDATE 19% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 7%

AUS

Data on

Nashville &

New

Orleans

Unavailabl

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Venture Capital Raised 13%

Aggregate Wage Growth (Year Over Year) 4.9%

17%<

% of Talent in STEM Categories 13% 9%

Value of Construction Starts 3.3% 4.3%<

4.7%

Average Wage Growth (Year Over Year) 3.3% 3.5%

RANK AMONG 35 PEER REGIONS

Housing Opportunity Index (% of homes sold that are affordable to a family earning

the local median income)

70.4% 79.6%

% of Companies Hiring 18% 13%

Unemployment Rate

Net New Jobs (Year Over Year) 14,558 5,539

384 217

4.5% 3.9%

Labor Force Growth (Year Over Year) 2.7% 3.4%

Housing Permit Activity

35

Conclusion

Economic Momentum

Sites & Product Development

Talent & Education Entrepreneurship & Innovation

Environment & Public Spaces

Environmental ResiliencyHuman Health & Safety

Arts, Culture & Recreation

Economic Mobility

Leadership & Public Policy

Civic Engagement

Transportation & HousingECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT