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Trends and Climate Change projections of the Marine Commercial Fish Species in Spain

Marine Research Division - AZTI - Sukarrieta(Spain)

Guillem Chust and the core group: Maite Erauskin, Estibaliz Díaz, Haritz Arrizabalaga, Paula Alvarez, Leire Ibaibarriaga, Andrés

Uriarte, María Korta, Nerea Goikoetxea, Unai Cotano

International Congress on Climate Change and Fisheries (CONXEMAR-FAO)

October 2nd 2017, Vigo

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Global trends of sea temperature

Rahmstorf et al. 2015 Nature Climate Change

1900 to 2013

• From global to regional cases studies

• Detection and attribution to climate change: How to do it? Examples

• Scenarios and what impacts to fish and fisheries: Ongoing research

• Examples of positive feedbacks in marine systems: Trophic amplification

• Are studies integrating overall impacts on Spanish fisheries?

Local fisheries

Questions

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Adaptation strategies to maintain the thermal optimum range

Poleward shift (population)

Migrate to deep cooler waters

(individuals)

Earlier spring phenological

changes (individuals)

Bruge et al. 2016 Frontiers in Marine Science

Poleward shift in the distribution of

North-East Atlantic Mackerel

(Scomber scombrus) spawning

Spawn from January to July

3 spawning components:- North Sea � Western� Southern

Berge et al. 2015C L I P E S

ICES triennial mackerel egg surveyswestern & southern components 1992-2013

Observed daily egg production 2013 (egg.m-2.day-1)

Biological data

289 km/decade

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Habitat modelling and poleward shift

1. Ecological-niche Modelling: algorithm development (GAMs)

(Causalities)

2. Ecological-niche Modelling: cross-validation (k-fold)

3. Predicting the past

(evidences of pressures)

Chust et al. 2013 ICES Journal of Marine Science

� Model 1 (population reconstruction)

� Model 2 (thermal habitat suitability)

Sp

aw

nin

g

Adult tolerance range

Helaouet and Beaugrand 2009

Feeding range

Growth range

Hutchinson 1959

4. Projecting the future

(Shifts in distribution and phenology)

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Spawning15 km/decade

Thermal Niche78 km/decade

Poleward shift in the distribution of Atlantic Mackerel spawning

� 28 km per ºC sea warming

Bruge et al. 2016 Frontiers in Marine Science

N

Approach to evaluate climate change impacts on commercial fishes

Hydrodynamic FishBiogeochemical

Process-based models

SDM / ENM / Habitat model

Flagellates Diatoms

Copepods

Nitrates

Large detritus

Ciliates

Small detritus

Ammonium

Distribution (location, extent), phenology, abundance, attribution

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Future changes in the distribution of Atlantic Mackerel spawning

RCP 4.5

2050

RCP 8.5

2099 2050 2099

Expansion

Retraction

N. 6 km/dec

W. 17 km/dec

N. 0 km/dec

W. 9 km/dec

N. 44 km/dec

W. 8 km/dec

N. 41 km/dec

W. 15 km/dec

Bruge et al. 2016 Frontiers in Marine Science

N

W

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April-June

October-Dicember

(Santiago, 2004)

ALBACORE TUNA (TROPHIC

MIGRATION)

Trolling Live bait

Fishing Gear

Dufour et al 2010

Poleward shift

Early migration

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C L I R E M A R

Climatic scenarios for vulnerable marine resources in Spain

Escenarios climáticos de los recursos marinos vulnerables de España

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C L I R E M A R

Climatic scenarios for vulnerable marine resources in SpainEscenarios climáticos de los recursos marinos vulnerables de España

Projections under climate change scenarios for:

• European eel larvae

• Anchovy spawning

• Bigeye tuna T. obesus

• Atlantic bluefin tuna T. thynnus

Aida et al. 2003

Early (4.8-31.1 mm)

Current biogeographic distribution

Late

(59.9-87.0 mm)

Mid

(31.4-59.6 mm)

Spatial Distribution Model (SDM) of the latest leptocephalus

European eel larvae stage

Díaz et al. Submitted

14Díaz et al.

Submitted

**

1. Time series analysis of spawning activity

2. Projections of egg density

Costoya et al. 2015

1982-2014

European Anchovy: spawning and eggs

Erauskin et al. Submitted

a)

Spawning peak

Gonadosomatic index

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European Anchovy: egg density projections (RCP8.5)

Egg density increase: 1.1- 2.7xArea Expansion: 8-16%

Erauskin et al. Submitted

FishBase

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Projections of the Bigeye tuna CPUE

Erauskin et al. in preparation

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Trophic amplification

Amplification (fractional change in biomass of HTL > FCB LTL)

Attenuation (FCB HTL < FCB LTL)

Proportional response (FCB HTL = FCB LTL)

Chust et al. 2014 Global Change Biology 20:2124-2139

Ocean warming

Phytoplankton biomass changeZ

oo

pla

nkto

n b

iom

ass

ch

an

ge

Response to Climate Change

Change in lower trophic level

Ch

an

ge

in u

pp

er

tro

ph

ic le

vel

Top-Down

control(increasing grazing

pressure)

Top-Down

control(release of grazing

pressure)

Bottom-up control

Bottom-up control

1

-1

-1

1

Trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

NEMO-PISCES Global Model, A1B scenario, difference between 2100 and present day

Chust et al. Global Change Biology (2014)

• -ive amplification in the tropical oceans

• +ive amplification in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans

• Trophic attenuation in temperate seas

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Potential Catch Change in 2050 (EEZ)

Spain: -16%

Primary Production change by 2050

Barange et al. 2014 NCC

21Eurostat 2015

Spain

Fishing fleet capacity

Total tonnage (thousand GT)Catches by fishing area

(1 000 tonnes live weight)

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a concluding remark…

Although the Spanish fishing fleet is one of the

most important in Europe, there is no published

study on how climate change is expected to impact

the total fish catch potential of overall Spanish

fleets

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Acknowledgements

• FP7 MEECE: Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment (Contract No. 212085)

• FP7 EURO-BASIN: European Union Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration (Contract No. 264933).

• Basque Governement (project CLIPES)

• Fundacion Biodiversidad (Project CLIREMAR)

Thank you for your attention!