Int. J. Environ. Res., 8(3):765-778,Summer 2014ISSN: 1735-6865

Received 9 Sep. 2013; Revised 24 Nov. 2013; Accepted 2 Dec. 2013

*Corresponding author E-mail: shaocf@nankai.edu.cn

765

Trends Analysis of Ecological Environment Security Based on DPSIR Model inthe Coastal zone: A survey study in Tianjin, China

Shao, C.1*, Guan, Y.1, Chu, C.1, Shi, R.2, Ju, M.1 and Shi, J.1

1College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China2Agro-Environmental Protection Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Tianjin, 300071, China

ABSTRACT: The “Driving force - Pressure - State - Impact – Response” modeling framework isadopted to consider the formation mechanisms of environmental risks and the requirements ofecological environment protection. Moreover, a systematical index system and evaluation model forthe measurement of the coastal ecological security level is put forward in this paper to assess thestate of coastal ecological environment security. The results show that the security level of theTianjin coastal ecological environment exhibits an overall downward trend, with the coastal ecologicalenvironment security value (E) falling from 0.7491 in 2005 (in good condition) to 0.2773 in 2010 (in apoor state) , and the value will continue to decline into a bad state in the next decade. The increasinguse of coastal areas, growing population and increasing emissions of pollutants into the sea are theprimary phenomena leading to environmental degradation of coastal ecosystems, which furtherleads to the degeneration of the ecological and environmental conditions of the coastal zone inTianjin. The inshore marine ecosystem is always in the sub-healthy and unhealthy state, which hasaffected the balance of the marine ecosystem and led to poor biomes structure. At present, themarine ecosystem conservation actions, including pollution control, monitoring and surveillancesystem and emergency management mechanism, are not enough to offset the impacts on the marineecosystem caused by driving force and pressure changes. It is necessary to establish a coordinatedintegration management system for the land and sea and an ecological compensation mechanism.

Key words: Driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR), Ecological security ssessment, Integrated index, Trends analysis, Tianjin

INTRODUCTIONThe coastal zone is a region where the land and sea

interact. As one of the most vulnerable and sensitiveecological environments, it is an important part of globalchange research. According to the China MarineEnvironment Quality Bulletin, for the most recent 10years (State Oceanic Administration, 2001-2011), theenvironmental pollution situation of Chinese ports andoffshore areas is very serious. Pollutants carried bythe rivers into the sea have been constantly increasing,the frequency and harmful consequences of red tidedisasters continue to increase, fishery resources aredeclining each year, the ecological environment of theestuarine has been damaged, and the marine pollutantsflux input from the atmosphere shows an upward trend.To prevent the loss of the ecological environment inthe ports and coastal areas, the deterioration of waterquality and the depletion of resources, it is necessary

to strengthen the management of the ecologicalenvironment of the coastal waters and ensure thesustainable development of ports, the coastalecological environment and the socio-economicsystem. Necessary components of this change inmanagement include the protection of the coastalecological environment and biodiversity, restorationof damaged coastal ecosystems and utilization ofcoastal resources in a sustainable way. The applicationof a reasonable method for the evaluation andprediction of the coastal ecological environment andnatural resources could provide a key decision-makingbasis for ecological environment management andnatural resource utilization in coastal waters. To studythe continued development of the composite coastalecosystem, it is necessary to simulate nutrientdynamics mechanisms, ecosystems and the biologicalprocesses of coastal waters through a series of models.

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With regard to the dynamic changes in the coastalecosystem, Wu and Yu (1996) analyzed and classifiedthe feasibility, development situation and developmenttrend of dynamic forecasting of marine ecosystemmodels. With the application of the Ecopath model,Wang et al. (2009) stimulated the evolution of the marineecosystem on the continental shelf in the northern partof the South China Sea and revealed fishery resourceand ecosystem degradation mechanisms in this region.Jiang et al. (2007) further used the Ecosim model tosimulate the impact of coastal water fishing on thechange in the number of biological components in thesystem at the ecosystem level, which providedscientific theoretical guidance for the scientificmanagement of fishery resources and marineecosystems. In regard to the water eutrophication ofcoastal waters, Wei et al. (2001) focused on thephytoplankton burden and analyzed the characteristicsand performance of different scale phytoplanktondynamics models in coastal eutrophication processsimulations under different nutrient loadings. Gao andWang (2004) built a three-dimensional planktonicecological dynamics NPZD model and simulated theamount of Bohai Sea phytoplankton and the primaryproductivity variation characteristics. Moreover,Donald (2009) analyzed and forecasted red tidesthrough large-scale ecological modeling. Lastly, Georgeet al. (2007) and Olivia et al. (2009) studied therelationship between coastal eutrophication, nitrogenand phosphorus loadings with the application of aBayesian model.

To effectively assess the offshore environmentalpollution situation, domestic and foreign scholarsstudied offshore environmental evaluation and trendprediction. Liu et al. (2002) evaluated the coastal marinewater quality status and utilized the monitored valueof various marine water quality indicators through theapplication of a single factor index model. Luo et al.(2004) applied a clustering model in mathematicalstatistics to study the correlation between the variousfactors and environmental quality, objectivelyidentified affinities between them, and determined theenvironmental pollution levels in coastal waters. Fu etal. (2007) applied a gray relational analysis model toevaluate the quality of the marine environment andidentify the major pollution sources that need to betreated in the coastal area. Combining a gray predictionmodel with a fuzzy mathematical model, Wang et al.(2005) evaluated and predicted the pollution load ofthe coastal area of the Bohai Bay and identified thepollution sources that need to be focused on forgovernance in the coastal area. Meanwhile,visualization technology and space simulationtechnology have been used in marine environmentevaluation. Chen et al. (2007) solved the visualization

problem of large hierarchical ocean monitoring datawithin a limited display area with the application ofhyperbolic visualization technology, applied in theevaluation and analysis of the quality of the marineenvironment and provided interactive visualization ofmassive and level node numerous marine statistics andmonitoring data, environmental evaluation data andanalysis results data.

To quantify the vulnerability of the coastalecological environment, relevant experts conductedstudies investigating the comprehensive evaluationof the ecological environment, combining coastalecology with environmental factors. This study ismainly about the determination and evaluation ofpollution indicators, e.g., heavy metals in coastal fishand benthic organisms and model simulations ofpollution processes for marine pollution toeutrophication. Yuan et al. (2005) and Maria andGiuseppe (2005) calculated the impact of the heavymetal accumulation coefficient on the pollution levelof coastal waters through the determination of theheavy metal content in the bodies of coastal benthosand plankton. Based on this work, Agnese and Carlo(2006) applied a model to evaluate the heavy metalchanges in coastal benthic organisms and thenevaluated the marine ecological environment qualitybased on these changes. Focusing on the interactionbetween marine water quality indicators and marinephytoplankton growth, Artioli et al. (2005) applied amodel to simulate the change in the marineeutrophication-indicating organisms in the coastal areaand evaluated the marine ecological environment. Acomprehensive model of factors including theinteraction between land, waterpower and biology wasproposed and applied in the simulations to investigatethe influence of nitrogen nutrients and organic carbonon phytoplankton. Thus, the coastal eutrophicationprocess was evaluated.

Ecological environment security refers to thesupporting conditions of regional ecologicalenvironment, the state that ecological andenvironmental problems do not pose a threat to humansurvival and that ecological vulnerability can beconstantly improved, i.e., ecosystem functionalitycould meet the needs of its continued existence anddevelopment. When the regional ecosystem isdisturbed, humans take active measures to improvethe degenerated ecological environment and protectand restore the ecological service functions of thesystem. In regard to ports and the coastal ecologicalenvironment impact assessment, the current studyfocuses on the environmental assessment of a singlefactor without taking the port and the coastalecosystem as a whole. Consequently, environmental

Int. J. Environ. Res., 8(3):765-778,Summer 2014

767

issues cannot be fully identified and judged. Therefore,the environmental decision-making behavior isaffected. Based on the Driving forces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response model (referred to as the DPSIRmodel), this paper establishes a complete set of indexsystems and evaluation methods to systematicallymeasure the security level of coastal ecology. Forillustrative purposes; the security status of the Tianjincoastal zone ecological environment is assessed overthe last several years. Meanwhile, in accordance withthe targets and scenarios set forth in the socio-economic development plan of Tianjin and the BohaiSea Environmental Protection Plan, this paper predictsand analyzes the ecological environment safety levelfor 2010 and 2020, assesses the effectiveness of theefforts made to improve the quality of the regionalenvironment and aims to provide a basis for decisionmaking to promote regional environmentalmanagement.

MATERIALS & METHODSThe driving forces–Pressure–State–Impact–

Response model (referred to DPSIR model) is amanagement model established by the EuropeanEnvironment Agency (EEA) that integrates the PSR(Pressure - State - Response) and DSR (Driving forces- State - Response) models to solve environmentalproblems. The DPSIR model has gradually become aneffective tool to determine the state of the environmentand environmental issue causality (the basic principleis shown in Figure 1) and has produced a set ofindicators that provide a framework widely used in thefield of environmental protection and sustainabledevelopment in the international world (Gervem et al.,2007; Svarstad et al., 2008; Niemeijer et al., 2008).

S

I

P

R

D

How?

What?

Why?

Fig. 1. DPSIR framework(1) What

“What happened” is what the evaluator firstaddresses and is reflected in the DPSIR model by the S(state) and I (impact) indicators. The state of the coreobject of concern is described by S (state); this is the

focal point of the evaluation. The state of the coreobject may affect some other factors that concern theevaluators. These impacts are described as I indicators,which is a complement and refinement to S (status). IfS (status) is the direct reason and result of P (pressure)and D (driving forces), I (impact) is visualized as anindirect effect and result.(2) Why

After “what happened” is clear, it is necessary toanalyze why it happens because it can guarantee andguide evaluators about what happens, which is toguarantee and guide core objects that the evaluatorneeds and provide important information. It is also anecessary condition to understand “how to addressit”. The DPSIR model depicts “why it happened”through P (pressure) and D (driving force) indicators.The P (pressure) indicator describes the factors thatdirectly apply to the core object and force its statuschanges. Moreover, the D (driving force) indicatordescribes factors that prompt pressure change andcause a state change in the concerned core object.The D (drive force) and P (pressure) indicators willaffect S (status) and I (impact). However, the role ofthe D (drive force) indicator occurs indirectly throughP (pressure). The effects of P (pressure) on S (status)are clear, while the effects of D (driving force) on S(status) are unclear. For example, if the quality of theenvironment is taken as the core object (S) andpollution emissions is P (pressure), the increase in Pwill inevitably lead to the deterioration of environmentalquality S. Furthermore, economic growth is representedby D (driving force), also having important effects onthe environmental quality S. On one hand, the impacton environmental quality is embodied in the drivingforce that increases pollution emissions P. However,on the other hand, it is also likely to bring moreenvironmental investments to improve the quality ofthe environment S, which will bring both positive andnegative effects. Therefore, if P is the direct and surfacereason that causes S and I, D is the indirect andunderlying reason.(3) How

After knowing why it happened, we can and shouldfurther analyze “how to deal with it”. The purpose ofdealing with a problem is generally to guarantee andguide the transformation of the core object to the staterequired by the evaluators, or to improve the state toreduce adverse effects. There are many ways toachieve this goal, either directly through S or I, or actingon P or D.

In the DPSIR conceptual model, the driving forcesare the potential causes that lead to environmentalchanges, for example, the region’s socio-economicactivities and development of industry. “Pressure”refers to the direct impact of human activities on the

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Coastal Zone Environment Security

natural environment, which represents the directpressure of ecological environment change caused byresource and energy consumption and pollutantemissions. Furthermore, “status” refers to the state thatthe ecological environment system is in when underthe pressure, mainly evaluated by the status of theecological environment and health. “Impact” refers tothe effect of the ecological environment system stateon the natural systems and socio-economic status.Lastly, the “response” process indicates thecountermeasures and positive policy utilized in thepromotion of sustainable development processes, e.g.,improving the efficiency of resource use, reducingpollution, increasing investment and other measures.At present, attempts have been made to apply theDPSIR model in such areas as the sustainable use ofwater resources, environmental management capacityanalysis, sustainable development of agriculture andsoil and water conservation benefits (Atkins et al., 2011;Hong and Chan, 2011; Maxim et al., 2009). These studiesshow that the DPSIR model emphasizes the relationshipbetween the functionality of the economy and its impacton the environment and is comprehensive, systematic,integrative and flexible. The model can also reveal thecausal relationship between the environment and theeconomy and effectively integrate resources,development and environment and human health.

Based on the principles of the DPSIR model, andwith top-down, layer-by-layer decomposition, thispaper divides coastal ecological environment securityinto three levels with each level respectively choosingelements reflecting its main features from the evaluationindex. The first layer is the target layer (O), taking thecomposite index of the coastal ecological environmentsecurity as the core object to measure the overall levelof ecological environment safety of inshore areas. Thesecond layer is the criterion layer (C), including thedriving force, pressure, state, impact and response.Lastly, the third layer is the indicator layer. This paperconsiders the regional characteristics of the Tianjinoffshore region and proposes to establish the Tianjinoffshore region ecological environment safetyassessment index system (Table 1) based on systematic,scientific and practical features; the availability andease of quantifying indicators from basic data; andincorporating results of domestic and internationalecological standards and requirements from expertrecommendations.

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is astructured technique for organizing and analyzingcomplex decisions. Based on mathematics andpsychology, it was developed by Thomas L. Saaty inthe 1970s and has been extensively studied and refinedsince then (Saaty, 1987). It has particular application in

group decision making, and is used around the worldin a wide variety of decision situations, in fields suchas government, business, industry, healthcare, andeducation (Saaty et al., 2008).

Selecting the key indicators for assessing theecological environment security in the coastal zoneinvolves analyzing the ecology, environment, society,and economy of the area, with each categorycontaining several indicators with hierarchicalcharacteristics. Figure 2 shows a hierarchy system forthe key indicator selection to assess the ecologicalenvironment security with three hierarchies. Theoverall objective of the ecological security assessmentlies at the top of the hierarchy (Level 1), and theCriterion indicators (Cs) and the specific indicators(Is), which represent grey sequences, lie at descendinglevels of this hierarchy (Levels 2 and 3, respectively)(Table 1. Five Cs (driving force, pressure, state, impact,and response) constitute the second level. The Is,which can be classified into five groups correspondingto the Cs, are at the bottom level.

The regional comprehensive assessment ofenvironmental risks based on the DPSIR modelinvolves a multiple evaluation index. Therefore, thegoal is to determine the contribution of each evaluationindex or evaluation factor on regional environmentalrisk, i.e., weights. Considering the characteristics ofvarious weight-determining methods and the combinedfeatures of environmental assessment uncertaintiesand intricate weight values, we choose the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method (Tian et al., 2011).

The factors are the evaluation indexes involved inthe evaluation. In the evaluation, the factor set is thefuzzy subsets composed by the actual measuredvalues of n factors involved in the evaluation, i.e.,

Where ui is the i-th factor.Because of the complex types of evaluation indexes

in the evaluation index system, the dimensions of thecoefficients are not necessarily identical. Therefore,the indexes are often not comparable. It is not feasibleto use them directly in the evaluation; therefore, theindexes need to be standardized. To reflect the effectsand obtain interval annual rates of change for eachindicator, we used the maximum differencenormalization method to standardize the data andeliminate the dimensionless impact caused by differentranges and units of indicators.

For positive indicators:

{ }nuuuuU K321= (1)

{ }{ } { }

min

max minij ij

ijij ij

x xx

x x

−=

−(2)

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Int. J. Environ. Res., 8(3):765-778,Summer 2014

Tabl

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Level 3: Indicator layer 1

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Fig. 2.Basic framework of the analytic hierarchy process

For negative indicators:

{ }{ } { }

max

max minij ij

ijij ij

x xx

x x

−=

−(3)

After this standardization, the maximum value isnormalized to 1, the minimum value is normalized tozero, and the rest of the values are between zero andone.

In the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, weightcoefficients reflect the status and the role of the variousfactors in the integrated decision-making processes,which can directly affect the results of thecomprehensive evaluation (Zou et al., 2006). Usually,the degrees of importance of the various factors aredifferent. Therefore, a corresponding weight value ai(i=1, 2, … , n) is assigned to each factor ui and composea weight set A=(a1, a2,…, an). An analytic hierarchyprocess (AHP) and the Delphi method are adopted todetermine the weights of the evaluation factor andconstruct a judgment matrix as follows:

Where, uij is the importance of the i-th factor relativeto the j-th factor.

According to the judgment matrix, the eigenvectorcorresponding to the largest eigenvalue is obtained,i.e., the weight distribution A=(a1, a2,…, an). Theanalysis was performed for the 26 indicators identifiedin Table 1. Moreover, 20 experts in different parts ofTianjin, including environmental management,environmental impact assessment and development of

⎥⎥⎥⎥

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m

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L

L

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(4)

marine resources were consulted. Lastly, the indicatorswere assigned values. The statistical results are shownin Table 2.

To test the reliability of the weight coefficient, itis necessary to check the consistency of judgmentmatrix, the formula is as follows.

Where, CR is the coefficient of consistence (whenCR<0.1ÿthe consistency of judgment matrix isacceptable), CI is the coincident indicator, RI is theaverage random consistency index. Firstly, wecalculated the coefficient of consistence of O-Cjudgment matrix, and the result is 0.0395, which is lessthan 0.10. This indicated the weight distribution of thecriterion layer is reasonable. For the weight distributionof the index layer by the same method, the coefficientof consistence of the five C-I judgment matrixes werecalculated respectively, and the five values were lessthan 0.010.Consequently the results of the analytichierarchy were very satisfied, which showed that theweight distribution of all index is reasonable.

The method of comprehensive evaluation is basedon the assigned index weights and standardizedindicators. This study uses the ecological environmentsecurity composite index (E) to characterize the regionalecological security situation, namely,

Where, E is the eco-environment safety index, Wi is theweight of each index and Xi is assigned results for eachindicator.The E value is in [0,1] and the greater its value,the higher the degree of ecological environmentsecurity. Ecological environment composite indexes aresorted from highest to lowest; the results of the

RICICR = (5)

i

n

ii XW ×=∑

=1

E (6)

771

Int. J. Environ. Res., 8(3):765-778,Summer 2014

evaluation are divided into five equally spaced levels:[0.8, 1.0] is the ideal state, [0.6, 0.8] represents goodconditions, [0.4, 0.6] is an alert state, [0.2, 0.4] is a poorstate and [0, 0.2] is a bad state.

The trend analysis is simulation exercises basedon the law of history. Consider the objective things,the representation of system complexity and datamessy, we predicted and analyze through grayforecasting model GM (1,1).

Set there are n observation values in timesequence X(0),

)}(,),3(),2(),1({ )0()0()0()0()0( nxxxxX L= ,and generated new series by accumulating,

)}(,),3(),2(),1({ )1()1()1()1()1( nxxxxX L= ,among

which:The corresponding differential equation for GM (1, 1)model is:

Table 2. Coastal eco-environment safety evaluation index weight

Target layer O Criterion

layer C O-C weight Indicator layer I C-I weight

I11 0.0835 I12 0.1592 I13 0.1787 I14 0.1592 I15 0.2408

Driving forces C1 0.1155

I16 0.1787 I21 0.1429 I22 0.2857 I23 0.2857 I24 0.1429

Pressure C2 0.1439

I25 0.1429 I31 0.1728 I32 0.2280 I33 0.1728 I34 0.1985

State C3 0.2718

I35 0.2280 I41 0.2589

I421 0.2254 I43 0.1487 I44 0.1708

Impact C4 0.2506

I45 0.1962 I51 0.1244 I52 0.1244 I53 0.2166 I54 0.2488

Comprehensive evaluation of the

ecological environment security

Response C5 0.2182

I55 0.2858

Among whichÿα is the development of gray number;µ is the endogenous control gray number.

Set:

Obtained from least-squares solution:

Among which:

Solving differential equations can obtain predictionmodel:

∑=

==k

iniixkx

1

)0()1( ),,3,2,1()()( L

µα =+ )1()1(

xdt

dx

⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛=∂

µα

nTT YBBB 1)( −=∂ (7)

⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢

⎣

⎡

⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥

⎦

⎤

+−−

+−

+−

+−

=

12/)]()1([

12/)]4()3([12/)]3()2([

12/)]2()1([

)1()1(

)1()1(

)1()1(

)1()1(

nxnx

xxxx

xx

BL

⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥

⎦

⎤

⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢

⎣

⎡

=

)(

)4(

)3()2(

)0(

)0(

)0(

)0(

nx

x

xx

Yn

L

(8)

αµ

αµ α +−=+ − kexkx ])1([)1( )0(

^(9)

RESULTS & DISCUSSIONThe Bohai Sea is a semi-enclosed inland sea that

undertakes the Haihe, Yellow and Liaohe River basinsand connects the Yellow Sea to the East China Seaecosystem (see Fig. 3). It is the most fragile ecologicalenvironment in the Chinese coastal waters. Bohai rimareas, including Tianjin, Liaoning Province, HebeiProvince and Shandong Province, are high-speedeconomic and social development areas (see Fig. 4).In recent years, due to declining land resources,environmental water quality and other factors, theBohai Sea has partially lost its ecological andeconomic functions. Environmental protection of theintegrated land and sea interface is facing a grimsituation.

China’s third largest city, Tianjin, sits at the eastend of the Bohai Sea, is the largest open coastal cityand is the earliest-opened modern city in northernChina. In March 2006, Tianjin was positioned as “theeconomic center of the Bohai Sea region and aninternational port city and a northern eco-cityeconomic center”. “Promote the development andopening of the Tianjin Binhai New Area” is writteninto China’s “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and the nationalstrategy. The Chinese government wanted to establishTianjin as a national comprehensive reform pilot areaand make it “China’s economic third growth pole”. Atpresent, the Bohai economic zone, with the TianjinBinhai New Area at its core, has rapidly formed anddeveloped. The Tianjin Binhai New Area is in theeastern coastal areas of Tianjin, covering an area of2270 km2 and coastline length of 170 km (see Fig. 5).The area is one of the fastest developing areas ofeconomic growth in China with gross domesticproducts increasing at an average rate of more than20% in the past five years. With the acceleration ofurban construction in Tianjin and large-scaledevelopment of the Tianjin Binhai New Area, a largenumber of coastal areas and seashores have beenoccupied and the total amount of pollutant emissionsinto the sea remain high. This results in a highlyfragmented coastline and atrophy of coastal wetlandarea, which seriously affects and damages thecontinuity of the waters - shoals - swamp ecologicalcorridor and further exacerbates the situation ofecological security of coastal waters in Tianjin.Improving the ecological environment of Tianjincoastal waters to achieve regional sustainabledevelopment has become an urgent problem. Toanalyze the Tianjin coastal ecological environmentsecurity trends, the identification of the main factorsaffecting the Tianjin coastal ecological environmentsecurity is a necessary precondition for Tianjin coastalecological environment protection work.

To obtain the raw data for the safety evaluationindexes of the Tianjin coast eco-environment, we firstgained access to a large number of statistics includingthe Tianjin Statistical Yearbook 2006-2011, Binhai NewArea Statistical Yearbook, Statistical Yearbook of theChina National Inshore, Tianjin Environmental QualityReports, Tianjin Marine Environmental QualityBulletins, China Marine Environment Quality Bulletins,China Sea Level Bulletins and the Bulletin of theChinese Marine Disasters. The raw data for someindicators also made reference to the research resultsof the “Environmental impact report of the Tianjin Portand overall plan” and “Strategic environmental impactassessment report of the Tianjin Binhai New Area”.Second, based on a remote sensing (RS) surveysupplemented by ground ecological data collection andsentinel surveillance of important ecological functions,we combined geographic information systems (GIS)and global positioning systems (GPS) to conduct aregional ecological environment survey. Keystandardized findings are shown in Table 3.

With increasing emission of land-based pollutantsand the continuous development and utilization ofcoastal areas, natural coastal wetland areas have beengreatly reduced, leading to the loss of many habitatsfor species which are economically important anddecreasing species diversity. Statistics in Table 3 forsix consecutive years show that inshore water in theBohai Bay has been in a serious eutrophication andsub-healthy state and demonstrates a deterioratingtrend. Correspondingly, the deterioration of coastalecosystems leads to increasing harm. In accordancewith the ecological environment safety evaluationindex system and the comprehensive evaluation modelestablished in this paper, we derive the Tianjin coastalareas ecological environment security index (Fig. 6).From 2005 to 2010, relevant administrative departmentscontinued to take positive measures to performecological protection work. However, the E value fellfrom 0.7491 in 2005 (in good condition) to 0.2773 in2010 (in poor condition), and the coastal ecologicalenvironment security level also shows a generaldownward trend.

Based on the environmental protection goals andrequirements of Tianjin, and the trends of ecologicalenvironment security in the coastal zone of Tianjinbetween 2005and 2010, the time series )0(X was setup, which is

(0) (0) (0) (0) (0){ (1), (2), (3), , (6)}X x x x x= L . Weegenerated a new sequence by adding, which

is (1) (1) (1) (1) (1){ (1), (2), (3), , (6)}X x x x x= L . Bythe method of GM(1,1), the development of gray

Coastal Zone Environment Security

772

773

Fig. 3. Map showing the location of Bohai Sea and Tianjin city in China

Fig. 4. Distribution of cities and ports in Bohai rim areas

Int. J. Environ. Res., 8(3):765-778,Summer 2014

774

Shao, C. et al.

number(α) and the endogenous control gray number(µ)can be obtained. Solving differential equations canobtain prediction result which is

27.0)2020(,18.0)2015( )0()0( == xx . In the nextdecade, the value will continue to decline into a badstate. New protection countermeasure is necessary,such as optimizing the pattern of economicdevelopment, curbing the development of Marineresources, reducing pollutants into Bohai Sea,strengthening the ecological protection in the coastalzone area.

As shown in Fig.6, the ecological andenvironmental conditions of the coastal zone of Tianjinfell from 0.9494 in 2005 to 0.2027 in 2010. The ecological

Fig. 5. Coast exploitation and development plan of Tianjin Binhai New Area

environment is deteriorating, and the inshore marineecosystem is always in a sub-healthy or unhealthystate primarily because of increasing emissions of land-based pollutants (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) thathave led to the deterioration of the eutrophication levelof coastal waters. Because of the increased pollutionlevels, the clean sea area of the Tianjin coastal watersfell from 1260 km2 in 2005 to 400 km2 in 2010 (Cui et al.,2013; Wang and Zhang, 2011). Continued large-scalereclamation projects caused a substantial reduction ofthe coastal natural wetland area, which decreased from58,090 hectares in 2005 to 37,856 hectares in 2010(Tianjin Bureau of Statistics, 2011; Zhai et al., 2012)and led to the loss of many important economicbiological habitats and the continual reduction of

775

Table 3. Assignment Tianjin inshore area ecological environment security trend indicators

Indicators 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 I11 0.000 0.103 0.230 0.505 0.641 1.000 I12 0.953 1.000 0.860 0.686 0.522 0.000 I13 1.000 0.000 0.405 0.429 0.431 0.405 I14 1.000 0.950 0.196 0.129 0.039 0.000 I15 1.000 0.901 0.605 0.308 0.186 0.000 I16 1.000 0.974 0.688 0.411 0.164 0.000 I21 1.000 0.881 0.681 0.310 0.155 0.000 I22 0.751 0.579 0.345 1.000 0.020 0.000 I23 0.667 0.572 0.000 1.000 0.354 0.075 I24 1.000 0.946 0.812 0.787 0.554 0.000 I25 0.827 0.853 1.000 0.821 0.513 0.000 I31 1.000 0.655 0.414 0.172 0.172 0.000

I32 0.778 0.556 1.000 0.889 0.000 0.889 I33 1.000 0.875 0.678 0.452 0.318 0.000 I34 1.000 0.775 0.589 0.472 0.352 0.000 I35 1.000 0.912 0.758 0.429 0.417 0.000 I41 0.875 0.772 0.358 1.000 0.000 0.229 I42 1.000 0.676 0.500 0.412 0.382 0.000 I43 1.000 0.796 0.583 0.417 0.285 0.000 I44 1.000 0.813 0.652 0.468 0.339 0.000 I45 1.000 0.722 0.605 0.590 0.248 0.000 I51 0.000 0.179 0.464 0.607 1.000 0.821 I52 1.000 0.808 0.769 0.731 0.731 0.000 I53 0.000 0.186 0.308 0.605 0.901 1.000 I54 0.000 0.335 0.458 0.652 0.857 1.000 I55 0.000 0.269 0.357 0.586 0.792 1.000

0.0000

0.2000

0.4000

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

D 0.9090 0.7101 0.5282 0.3961 0.2941 0.1559

P 0.8090 0.7118 0.4547 0.8455 0.2817 0.0215

S 0.9494 0.7529 0.7064 0.5021 0.2497 0.2027

I 0.9676 0.7512 0.5222 0.6093 0.2351 0.0593

R 0.1244 0.3232 0.4362 0.6271 0.8501 0.8534

E 0.7491 0.6479 0.5445 0.5934 0.3868 0.2773

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Fig. 6. Evaluation results of Tianjin coastal ecological environment safety

Int. J. Environ. Res., 8(3):765-778,Summer 2014

biodiversity. Water pollution affected the balance ofthe marine ecosystem and the biological communitystructure, causing a downward trend in the numberand density of life forms.

The decline of the ecological and environmentalconditions causes the eco-environmental impactconsequence of the Tianjin coastal zone to continuallyincrease; the eco-environmental impact value (indicatorI in Fig.6) has declined from 0.9676 in 2005 (in a slightlyaffected state) to 0.0593 in 2010 (in a serious impactstate). An example of the effect of such changes follows.The degradation of the marine ecosystem andincreased traffic results in an increased number redtides and oil spills, intensified impact of marinedisasters to coastal areas and elevated sea levels inconjunction with the impact of climate warming (upliftof 34 mm from 2005 to 2010). Combined with the disabledoriginal dike and the lack of coastal mudflats to bufferthe reclamation area, these effects ultimately lead toan increased risk of storm surges in large areas of thereclamation section and along the Tianjin coastline. According to the prediction analysis through a grayprediction model GM (1, 1) established in this paper,the inshore sea level of Tianjin will continue to rise by76 mm by 2020; the impact on Tianjin coastal areas willalso continue to increase. Coastal areas of Tianjin aremuddy silt plains. Land subsidence in parts of Tianjincoastal areas is obvious due to certain factors, e.g.,reduced groundwater level and ground compaction.As of 2010, the ground elevation of some streets in theTianjin Binhai New Area is already below sea level.With the continual expansion of seawater intrusion,the spillway capacity of the Haihe River is declining,municipal drainage problems are getting serious, andthe storm surge hazard is intensifying. There are 243township level administrative regions, 782 km ofrailway and 14832 km of highway in Tianjin. It isestimated that by 2020, 64 township-level settlementswill be affected (26% of the city), 256 km of railway willbe affected (33% of the city) and about 1418 km ofroads will be affected (10% of the city). The total areaof affected inland waters and the total length ofaffected rivers will be 316 square km and 457 km,respectively.

Freshwater flooding of Tianjin by the Haihe Riverinto the sea has obviously decreased, leading to yearlyreductions in the environmental base conditions.Because of the reduction of marine ecological waterconsumption in the Bohai Bay, the average runoff,which was 14.4 billion cubic meters in the 1950s, haddecreased to 8.2, 4.5, 1.0 and 2.4 billion cubic meters inthe 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Inrecent years, the average runoff has fallen from 0.952billion cubic meters in 2005 to 0.623 billion cubic meters

in 2010. This situation has not only led to the obviousincrease in salinity, changes in the estuary environmentand degeneration and disappearance of spawningspace for most aquatic organisms but also led toexpansion of the invading seawater area, elevateddegree of mineralization and increased concentrationof chloridion in ground water, fresh water salinizationand water quality deterioration, ultimately leading tothe continual expansion of soil salinization in coastallands.

In recent years, Tianjin has been taking positiveaction to protect the marine ecosystem and hasimproved the marine ecosystem management level.Meanwhile, Tianjin has established and improved themarine supervision, monitoring and inspection system,implementing supervision and monitoring into marineenvironmental protection construction (e.g., the SouthPort Industrial Zone, Tianjin Port (Group) Co., Ltd.,the Harbor Industrial Zone, the Harbor Industrial Zoneand the Binhai New City). Moreover, the supervisionand management of marine engineering has beenstrengthened. Furthermore, Tianjin has increasedinvestments in environmental protection efforts,constructed sewage treatment facilities and promotedthe governance of urban sewage and garbage disposal,ecological fisheries, ecological farming, ecologicalconstruction and agricultural non-point sourcemanagement, which made the sea water qualitycompliance rate increase from 28% in 2005 to 51% in2010. Tianjin has also formulated “Tianjin red tidedisaster contingency plans”, “Tianjin storm surge,waves, tsunamis and sea ice disaster contingencyplans”, established a marine disaster prevention andmitigation system, improved port emergency capacityand met the construction requirements of the“Equipment requirements for port oil spillemergencies (JT/T 451-2009)”. However, due to theexcessive density and use of coastal waters, coastalwetlands have degraded, the capacity of the wetlandenvironment has continued to decrease, and thepurification capacity has declined. With the expansionof Tianjin Port, especially the continued increase ofhandling capacity for oil and chemicals, the risk of majoroil spills from ships will also increase. Emissions ofnitrogen and phosphorus pollutants from expandingcoastal water farming have provided nutr ientconditions conducive to red tides. The inshoreenvironmental protection work has not beensystematic, has not yet formed comprehensive landand sea management mechanism and has not yetformed coordination mechanisms between departmentsof land, sea and river basins. Overall, the responsemeasures are not enough to offset the impact of thedriving force and pressure changes to the marineecosystem, which has led the Tianjin coastal ecosystem

Coastal Zone Environment Security

776

health status to deteriorate and the impact of theconsequences to increase. In brief, the Tianjin coastalecological environment security level is showing adownward trend.

Rapid socio-economic development of Tianjincoastal areas causes an increase of discharged water,which thereby causes a significant pressure on theenvironment. Meanwhile, coastal water ecologicalprotection and land usage for social development havesharp contradictions. Consequently, the Tianjininshore environment and ecological problems havebecome constraints on the sustainable developmentof Tianjin coastal areas. According to the goals ofsocietal and economical development, environmentprotection and ecological construction set by the“Bohai Sea Environmental Protection Master Plan(2008 - 2020)”, the “Tianjin City Master Plan (2005- 2020)”, “Tianjin Eco-City Construction Plan” andthe “Tianjin Binhai New Area Master Plan (2009-2020)”, Tianjin will format an ecological sustainabledevelopment model, Tianjin coastal ecologicalenvironment security should gradually improve, Tianjinwill convert the coastal ecosystems to a healthy stateby 2020, and Tianjin will continue to improve theinshore land area ecological environment quality. Fromthe results of the 2005-2020 Tianjin coastal ecologicalenvironment security trends analysis, it is quite difficultto achieve the predetermined goals for the protectionof the Tianjin coastal ecosystem and environment.Therefore, there is an urgent need for positive andeffective response measures.

CONCLUSIONBohai Sea is China’s only semi-closed inland sea

with poor seawater exchange ability and fragile marineecosystems. A comprehensive assessment of thecoastal ecological environment security, understandingof the situation and the extent of inshore marineecological damage, and identification of key factorsthat affect coastal ecological environment security canprovide scientific basis for the identification of land-based pollution sources and management of theinshore marine environment.

At present, the Tianjin coastal ecologicalenvironment security level shows a declining trend,the environmental state is poor, the inshore ecosystemfaces environmental pollution and habitats aredecreasing. Because of the poor environmental qualityof coastal waters, the increasing intensity of coastalwater usage, the increase of pollutant emissions intothe sea and the polluted coastal ecosystem,ecosystems have been in a long-term sub-healthy orunhealthy state, biodiversity is being destroyed, andthe ecological environment is relatively fragile. There

is a large gap between the current situation and theBohai Sea marine environmental protection goals.There are more “unsafe” factors and there is a longway to go for inshore marine ecological environmentsecurity building.The expansion of reclamationactivities, the population growth and the increase ofpollutants into the sea are the primary causes forenvironmental degradation of coastal ecosystems.Existing scientific and technological support are notsufficient to meet environmental governance andecological protection of the coastal waters. The lackof a scientific and rational environmental managementsystem is also a key factor restricting the improvementof the quality of the marine environment. It is necessaryto continue to enhance the security level of the coastalecosystems and promote the sustainable use of themarine environment. Moreover, the establishment ofemergency response mechanisms for sudden accidentsin the coastal ecological environment, marineengineering ecological damage compensation andcoastal restoration works, accounting for the impactof rising sea levels in regional development planningare also necessary. Lastly, comprehensive promotionof saving and utilization of water, energy, land andmaterials in the planning of ports, logistics, heavyequipment manufacturing and development processof petrochemical industry, are required to ensure thatthe introduced projects consist of low consumption,low emission, low pollution and high efficiencyenterprises and products, thus upgrading the industrylevel of environmental performance.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe study was supported by “Doctoral Program

Foundation of Institutions of Higher Education ofChina” (No. 20120031110036), “National ScienceFoundation of China” (No. 41301579) and “Humanityand Social Science Youth foundation of Ministry ofEducation of China” (No. 10YJCZH121). The authorsare grateful to the editors and the anonymousreviewers for their insightful comments andsuggestions.

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