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Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Thursday, October 8, 2020

The global scorecard

India + 78,524 India + 971

US + 48,182 US + 892

Brazil + 31,553 Brazil + 734

France + 18,746 Argentina + 399

Argentina + 16,447 Mexico + 369

UK + 14,162 Iran + 239

Russia + 11,115 Russia + 202

Spain + 10,491 Colombia + 163

Colombia + 7,875 South_Africa + 145

Czechia + 5,338 Indonesia + 98

+ 242,433 + 4,212

World + 331,910 World + 5,679

Top ten 73% Top ten 74%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

47.660 bp of population infected

As of Oct 8

New confirmed cases

by continent

1.377 bp of population fatalities

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-casesmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2

The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital

TX TN CA NY TX

FL OH TX CA CA

GA IN FL NJ FL

NC AZ NY TX GA

IL TX GA FL IL

IN WI IL MA IN

CA NY AZ IL TN

MO SC NC PA NC

ND NJ NJ GA VA

TN NV TN MI WI

All states All states All states All states All states

Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries

United States

+ 71

+ 69

+ 62

+ 46

+ 44 205,375 7,161

4,279,238 130,173



57% 64%

7,460,634 202,675

49%

+ 635

59%

31,346

55%

The ten worst US states

+ 845

+ 1,247

68%

3,394

3,175

2,151

1,779

1,673

1,138

1,115

1,013

926

853

17,217

221,258 8,244

209,342 7,229

773,435 16,177

CT -702 GU -3 TX -50

AL

828,461 25,536

720,125 16,147

307,750 9,538

221,934 9,085

466,908 16,111

324,650 14,945

Top ten

GA -101

TN -8

NC -754 PR -8

Five most improved US states

KS -1,597 AR -22 MN -367

CA -1,378 MA

OH

All states

+ 19,024

+ 38,696

IL

NC

NY

OK + 1,364

+ 1,335

+ 4,132

+ 2,251

+ 2,075

+ 1,676

TX

FL

WI

CA

TN

+ 140

+ 120

+ 119

+ 98

+ 1,617

+ 1,504

+ 1,393

+ 30

+ 28

+ 26

+ 76

+ 1,677

+ 37

+ 33

+ 31

+ 78

+ 59

-12

-813 KS

+ 26

+ 24

+ 372


+ 9

AR + 5

UT + 4

AK + 0

AS + 0

AL -61

IL -68

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s a

nd

de

ath

s

Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

https://covidtracking.com/https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

3

Recommended reading

Backlash Grows in Orthodox Jewish Areas Over Virus

Crackdown by Cuomo Liam Stack

New York Times October 7, 2020

The Ballot Deadline Guessing Game Wall Street Journal October 7, 2020

Will the economic and psychological costs of covid-19

increase suicides? The Economist

October 5, 2020

Amazon Thoroughly Wrecks Narrative About

Lockdowns Being Necessary David Simon

RealClear Markets October 6, 2020

Eli Lilly says its monoclonal antibody cocktail is

effective in treating Covid-19 Matthew Herper

Stat News October 7, 2020

CNN Reporter Criticized for Taking off Mask

Criticizes Trump for Taking off Mask Matt Palumbo

Dan Bongino Show October 6, 2020

Who targeted the president? Sally Zelikovsky

American Thinker October 6, 2020

We’ve Destroyed the Arts Neal Pollack

Book and Film Globe

October 6, 2020

Meme of day

g

Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/nyregion/orthodox-jews-nyc-coronavirus.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/nyregion/orthodox-jews-nyc-coronavirus.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ballot-deadline-guessing-game-11602112765https://www.economist.com/international/2020/10/05/will-the-economic-and-psychological-costs-of-covid-19-increase-suicideshttps://www.economist.com/international/2020/10/05/will-the-economic-and-psychological-costs-of-covid-19-increase-suicideshttps://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/10/06/amazon_thoroughly_wrecks_narrative_about_lockdowns_being_necessary_579797.htmlhttps://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/10/06/amazon_thoroughly_wrecks_narrative_about_lockdowns_being_necessary_579797.htmlhttps://www.statnews.com/2020/10/07/eli-lilly-monoclonal-antibody-cocktail-covid-19/https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/07/eli-lilly-monoclonal-antibody-cocktail-covid-19/https://bongino.com/cnn-reporter-criticized-for-taking-off-mask-criticizes-trump-for-taking-off-maskhttps://bongino.com/cnn-reporter-criticized-for-taking-off-mask-criticizes-trump-for-taking-off-maskhttps://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/who_targeted_the_president.htmlhttps://bookandfilmglobe.com/creators/weve-destroyed-the-arts/https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/category/the-week-in-pictures

4

The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

5

The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality



6

Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread



7

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low ◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYDX4WWYX9Qg/v0https://covidtracking.com/

8

Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low ◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYDX4WWYX9Qg/v0https://covidtracking.com/

9

Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions

Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americahttps://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-caseshttps://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

10

From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande

New York

US ex-New York

Texas268.16 bp of population infected


As of Oct 8










11

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)

California

Florida

Arizona

As of Oct 8












12

Patient zero… and then everyone else

China

World ex-China

As of Oct 8





1.68 bp of population mortalities

0.02 bp of population mortalities



13

Impact in the largest economies

Japan

Germany

France

As of Oct 8







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Impact in The Anglosphere

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia9.83 bp of population infected


As of Oct 8










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Impact in continental Europe

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

As of Oct 8







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Impact in other hot-spots

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden




As of Oct 8







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Impact in the BRICs ex-China

India

Russia

Brazil




As of Oct 8







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Impact in the Middle East and Africa

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)11.15 bp of population infected



As of Oct 8







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