TREMOVEETISPLUS workshop

Griet De Ceuster

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 2

TRANSPORT DE MAND MODULE

VEHICLE STOCK MODULE

EMISSIONS MODULE

TRANSPORT COST/KM (prices, taxes, subsidies) source: SCENES, COWI + others

CONGESTION FUNCTIONS (SPEED -FLOW)

MOHRING FUNCTIONS (PUBLIC TRANSPORT)

SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES source: general literature CALIBRATED on SCENES and TIF

PKM TKM

detailed VKM

EMISSIONS FUNCTIONS sources: ROAD: draft COPERT IV with adapted fuel cons. RAIL, AIR: TRENDS IWW: preliminary ARTEMIS

FUEL & ENERGY CONSUMPTION

EMISSIONS

1995 = SCENES = TIF 2000 = TIF (+TRENDS, EUROSTAT) 2020 = SCENES (only for baseline2030 = based on PRIMES growth rate

baseline )

OCCUPANCY RATES LOAD FACTORS source: SCENES + others

VKM

VKM increase per year

STOCK IN 1995 source: TRENDS + UIC

SCRAPPAGE FUNCTIONS source: TRENDS + other

SALES FUNCTIONS source: sales in recent years CAILBRATED on COWI 99-00 + TRENDS-

VEHICLE STOCK

1995 = TRENDS

VKM detailed shares

SPEED

2000 ~ PRIMES / RAINS

LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS MODULE

LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS

total transport EXPENSES, CS, PS, GOVERN. REVENUE

WELFARE MODULE

EXTERNAL COST FACTORS source: CAFE CBA, GRACE

WELFARE differences

WTT EMISSION FACTORS sources: PRIMES, RAINS, ECOINVENT

1995 -2005 ~ actual sales

RAIL ROAD

IWW

AIR

module

input data & functions

output data

consistency check

PKM & TKM :

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 3

TREMOVE 1 for DG ENV

• … - 1999• Developed by : KUL, DRI• Application in Auto-Oil II programme

– Cost-effectiveness analysis of :• Vehicle emission standards• Fuel quality standards• Non-technical measures

– Public transport subsidies, scrappage, …

• Fuel taxes

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 4

TREMOVE 2.0–2.52 for DG ENV

• 2002 - 2007• Developed by : TML, KUL et al.• Cost-effectiveness analysis of :

• EURO 5 standards• Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives)• Maritime policies (aftertreatment, …)• Plane taxes

• Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 5

TREMOVE 2.7 : GRACE• Released November 2007• Development by TML• For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds)• Cost-effectiveness analysis of :

Km-charging policies (road and other modes)

• Can be executed without software licenses

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 6

TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT

EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO)

• Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS– TransTools is the new network-based

forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, …

– Development by TML and TRT

• TML also developed the EDIP model

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 7

TREMOVE 3.1 for JRC

• For JRC-IPTS• TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI• New car ‘materials’ module

– Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts

– Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model

• 4 Policy simulations :– Promoting smaller & lighter cars– Accelerated scrappage & replacement

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 8

TREMOVE 3.2 : iTREN

EC FP6 iTREN-2030 (coordinator : ISI)• Developing a common 2030 forecast with :

– TRANSTOOLS– POLES : Energy / technology model (JRC-IPTS,TRT)– ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer

ISI)

• Automated data exchange with TRANS-TOOLS

• Extension with new car technologies– Hydrogen– Electric

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 9

TREMOVE 3.3 for ENV

• Taxes and prices– VAT rates & evolution– National taxation– Fuel prices: IEA extract

• Demand baseline: from iTREN• Rail stock from EX-TREMIS• Road stock from FLEETS• BY set to 2005• Maritime model

– Updated with EX-TREMIS values• Issue in demand (buses) originating from iTREN• Validation• Calibration• Database clean-up• Alternative baseline: data is set• Sensitivity

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 10

TREMOVE 3.4 for JRC

• Baseline update• Purpose: DG MOVE White Paper

GLADYSTEETISPLUS workshop

Griet De Ceuster

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 12

Gladyste

• The new TREMOVE• World• System dynamics

– Demand module independent from other sources

– Demand can also be exogenous

• Vensim• Ready by end of 2010

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 13

Features

• Copy of TREMOVE• Additional demand module • Additional 24 world regions (+33

European zones)• 4 modules: Demand, Fleet,

Energy Use / Emissions, and Welfare

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 14

Linkages with other models

• Copy of TREMOVE• Demand module partly based on

ASTRA (not identical)• Link with POLES developed

– Export to Poles• Link with TRANS-TOOLS will be

developed– Overrule Gladyste demand and

replace by Trans-Tools demand

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 15

24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 16

Screenshot FLEET module

Thank you!