traveler typologies and the causes for recent changes in millennial travel patterns kelcie m. ralph...
DESCRIPTION
The Cheapest GenerationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel
Patterns
Kelcie M. RalphAssistant Professor
Transportation Research Board2016
![Page 2: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Vehicle miles of travel in the United States by year
Source: Vehicle miles of travel data is from the Federal Highway Administration’s Office of Highway Policy Information (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/historicvmt.cfm)U.S. population data is from the U.S. Census accessed via http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table
![Page 3: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Cheapest Generation
![Page 4: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Young people driving less,
embrace other transportation
-Copeland October 1, 2013
![Page 5: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Young people driving less,
embrace other transportation
-Copeland October 1, 2013
Is it true?
![Page 6: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
To find out…
• National Household Travel Survey – 1990– 2001– 2009
• Young people ages 16 to 36
![Page 7: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Mobility Trip making
1 0,5 60
Automobile access Day-to-day variability
Travel behavior is multifaceted
![Page 8: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Latent Profile Analysis
![Page 9: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Latent Profile Analysis
Drivers Long-distance Trekkers
Multimodals Car-less
![Page 10: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Drivers: 79%
Long-distance Trekkers: 3%
Multimodals: 4%
Car-less: 14%
![Page 11: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
Change in the preva-lence of the traveler
types (1995 to 2009)
Driver Trekker MultimodalCar-less
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
cha
nge
What can we expect moving forward?
Why is this happening?
![Page 12: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Preferences have changed
Responding to economic
constraints
![Page 13: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Preferences have changed
Responding to economic
constraints
Back to the city
Internet
Green values
![Page 14: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Preferences have changed
Responding to economic
constraints
Un(der)employme
nt
Widening
wage gap
Lost decade
![Page 15: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Preferences have changed
Responding to economic
constraints
![Page 16: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Option 1: Ask directly
• Misstate preferences • Difference between stated & actual • May not be generalizable• Tricky to answer:
– How would you behave differently if the Internet and mobile communications did not exist?
Many people have done this• Delbosc and Currie (2012)• Jorritsma and Bervelingm (2014)• Le Vine, Jones et al. (2014)
![Page 17: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Option 2: Indirect test
Assumption: Young people with many resources are better able to act on their preferences than those with few resources.
![Page 18: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Employment status
Household income quintile
(adjusted)
Educational attainment(Age 26 to 36 only)
79% to 69%
under-employmen
t
Stagnation in lower income
quintiles
Only 44% have a
bachelor’s degree
![Page 19: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
WHAT DID I FIND?
![Page 20: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Not employed Employed
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Change 1995 to 2009
Driver Car-less
Perc
enta
ge
poin
t cha
nge
2x more
“Driving fell among both young people with jobs and those without during the 2000s”
Dutzik, Inglis et al. (2014)
![Page 21: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
By household income quintile
Perc
enta
ge
poin
t cha
nge
Change 1995 to 2009 6x more
![Page 22: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
By educational attainment
Perc
enta
ge
poin
t ch
ange
Change 1995 to 2009 20x more
![Page 23: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
By household income quintile
Perc
enta
ge
poin
t cha
nge
-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%
By educational attainment
Perc
enta
ge
poin
t ch
ange
Fewer Drivers and more Car-less by Resources (1995 to
2009)
A closer look at young people with resources
![Page 24: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%
By household income quintileTrekker Multimodal
Perc
enta
ge
poin
t cha
nge
Change 1995 to 2009
Trend was reversed
for Multimoda
ls and Long-
distance Trekkers
![Page 25: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Multivariate analysis
![Page 26: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Employed
Q1Q2Q4Q5
Less than HSSome college
College degreeAdvanced degree
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Employed
Q1Q2Q4Q5
Less than HSSome college
College degreeAdvanced degree
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Drivers
Car-less
-10 -5 0 5
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
Long-distance Trekkers
Multimodals
![Page 27: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Another indirect test
If preferences were indeed the primary cause of the decline, then over time,
being Car-less would have less to do with resources.
![Page 28: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
-12-10
-8-6-4-20
Employed(Base: Not employed)
1995
2001
2009
Cha
nge
in p
ropo
rtio
n C
ar-le
ss re
lativ
e to
bas
e
Q1 Q2 Q4 Q5
-5
0
5
10
15
Household income quintile(Base: Q3)
Less
_x00
0d_th
an H
S
Colleg
e _x0
00d_
degre
e
-5
5
15
Educational attainment(Base: High school only)
The gap between the haves and the
have nots is widening.
![Page 29: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
http://www.columbusunderground.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/uber-columbus.jpghttp://photography-cameras.org/
![Page 30: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel Patterns Kelcie M. Ralph Assistant Professor Transportation Research Board 2016](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8b7f8b9ab0599bee0c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Already evidence that Millennials are returning to driving