Transportation Trends & Options: Where do we go from here?

State Transportation Board Study Session October 27, 2015

© 2013, All Rights Reserved.

Comparison of 2003 RTP and Current Highway User Revenue Fund Projections

©2015, All Rights Reserved.

$9.4 Billion

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2003 RTP HURF Projection October 2015 HURF Projection

(Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs)

Regional HURF, 345,399,549 ,

25%

ADOT Funds, 294,500,000 ,

21% Federal Funds (Suballocated), 167,800,000 ,

12%

Dedicated Local & Regional

Funds, 575,985,994 ,

42%

Major Sources of Transportation Revenue in Maricopa County

Highways, 209,500,674 , 36%

Streets, 43,130,874 , 8%

Transit, 307,462,275 , 53%

Other, 15,892,171 , 3%

Uses of Dedicated Local & Regional Funds

Total Major Sources: $1.383 billion Total Major Sources: $576.0 million

Sales Tax

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

$-

$0.100

$0.200

$0.300

$0.400

$0.500

$0.600

$0.700

$0.800

$0.900

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Highway User Charge - Cents per Mile Highway User Charge - Cents per Mile (2011 dollars) CAFÉ standard for new cars

Miles per Gallon Ce

nts p

er M

ile

CAFE Standards and Gas Tax Yield Per Mile

© Maricopa Association of Governments, 2015.

© 2015, All Rights Reserved. 6

Source: Fleet News Daily, March 20, 2013

Cummins/Peterbilt SuperTruck shows 54% improvement in fuel economy

The New Truck Stop: Filling Up With Natural Gas for the Long Haul

13.4 MPG

Airflow Truck Company

Revenue Categories

Fuel Tax Options Increase fuel tax Index to inflation

County option

Sales Tax Options

Arizona Transportation Sales

Tax Sales tax on fuel

sales

Other Options Property tax

Driver’s license fee Registration fee

Sin tax

Fuel Tax Options

$429.8

$316.4

$228.7

$178.0

$115.2

$108.6

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500

Add 5 cents and index state & federal fuel taxes to CPI

Add 5 cents and index state fuel taxes to CPI

Index current state & federal fuel tax to CPI (state & federal)

Add 5 cents to fuel tax

Index current state fuel tax to CPI

5 Cent Local Option Fuel Tax in Maricopa County Indexed

Annual Average Net New Statewide Revenue 2013 to 2022 (millions of dollars)

Sales Tax Options

$1,041.2

$820.1

$604.9

$337.0

$116.0

$0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00

Add state & local sales tax in addition to current fuel taxes

Add state sales tax in addition to current fuel taxes

1/2 cent State Transportation Sales Tax

Replace fuel tax with state & local sales tax

Replace fuel tax with state sales tax

Annual Average Net New Statewide Revenue 2013 to 2022 (millions of dollars)

Local $221.06

Local $221.06

Other Options

$96.8

$53.4

$42.6

$13.1

$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00

Property tax for transportation

$10 registration fee increase

10% Surcharge on Luxury Tax Collections

$10 drivers' license fee increase

Annual Average Net New Statewide Revenue 2013 to 2022 (millions of dollars)

Potential Transportation Revenue Sources

Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, August, 2013.

$1,041.2 $820.1

$604.9 $429.8

$337.0 $316.4

$228.7 $178.0

$116.0 $115.2 $108.6

$96.8 $53.4

$42.6 $13.1

$0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00

Add state & local sales tax in addition to current fuel taxesAdd state sales tax in addition to current fuel taxes

1/2 cent State Transportation Sales TaxAdd 5 cents and index state & federal fuel taxes to CPI

Replace fuel tax with state & local sales taxAdd 5 cents and index state fuel taxes to CPI

Index current state & federal fuel tax to CPI (state & federal)Add 5 cents to fuel tax

Replace fuel tax with state sales taxIndex current state fuel tax to CPI

5 Cent Local Option Fuel Tax in Maricopa County IndexedProperty tax for transportation

$10 registration fee increase10% Surcharge on Luxury Tax Collections

$10 drivers' license fee increase

Annual Average Net New Statewide Revenue 2013 to 2022 (millions of dollars)

Local $221.06

0.9%

3.0% 3.8%

6.8% 7.7% 8.1 % 8.2 %

12.6 % 16.2 %

22.4 % 23.8 %

30.4 %

42.8 %

73.6 % 58.0 %

Local $221.06

Percent Increase in HURF Revenues Compared to Projections for 2013 to 2022

Thank you!

State Transportation Board Study Session October 27, 2015

© 2015, All Rights Reserved.