transportation model forum

June 9, 2021

TRANSPORTATION MODEL FORUM

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Forum Agenda

• Welcome and Introductions

• Travel Model Visualizations

• What Feeds the Beast

• Project Updates

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Welcome and Introductions

• Staffing Updates

− Welcome Pat Landrum!

• Director of Data and Modeling

− Welcome back Susan Xu!

• New Model Website

• Return to 401 B Street

• Pending Retirement: ABM1

https://www.sandag.org/index.asp?classid=32&fuseaction=home.classhome

Gregor Schroeder

Jeff Yen

TRAVEL MODEL VISUALIZATIONS

Service Bureau Mode Choice Report

Gregor Schroeder

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Setting Up BI Tools for Success!

• What happens when an ABM2+ Model Run is completed?1. ABM model run notifies a Microsoft Azure SQL Server database instance that the model run is complete and ready to be

loaded

2. Each night the SQL Server instance looks for new notifications from ABM model runs and loads the final data files into the database.

3. This is done for every ABM model run. The database instance can hold thousands of ABM model runs.

• Why is this important?1. Makes management of thousands of ABM model runs possible

2. Allows analyst access to thousands of ABM model runs with minimal effort

3. Enables development of automated reporting procedures and helps to unlock the power of BI software.

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Data Model Powers Up BI Tools

• Entity-Relationship Model1. Relational. Third Normal Form (3NF). Prioritizes referential integrity, reducing data duplication. Can be slow and difficult to

work with in BI software.

• Dimension Model1. Star Schema. Prioritizes ease of use and speed. Everything is just one join away! BI software is made for this!!!

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Service Bureau Mode Choice Report

ABM2+ Base Year Validation

Jeff Yen

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• What’s travel model validation?

• Traffic flow validation

• Major improvements

• Data visualization of ABM validation results

Overview

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What’s Travel Model Validation?

“The set of processes to verify the travel models have enough fidelity”

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Traffic Volume Validation

• Data:− Observed counts obtained from SANDAG, local jurisdictions, and Caltrans District 11.

− PeMS stations five-minutes data.

− SANDAG roadway network.

• Workflows:− Cross-reference PeMS stations with SANDAG roadway network.

− Produce Annual Average Count.

− Perform ABM validation and visualize the results.

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20ft

155ft

45ft

I-5S GP lane

I-5N GP lane

the nearest station

to I-5S GP lane

I-5S GP station

I-5N GP station

Station out of distance threshold (150ft)

Cross-reference SANDAG Hwycov with PeMS stations

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• Automated the cross-referencing processes using Python.− Enable the program reusability.

• Added more observed PeMS counts for ABM freeway validation.− Current: 612; before: 331.

• Enabled dynamic count inventory update in old Excel validation templates.

• Introduced new validation templates using Power BI.− Enhanced data visualization of model validation result.

− Enabled the template shareability and reusability.

Major Improvements

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EXCEL Data Visualization (previous)

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Data Visualization Enhancement by Power BI

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/514f1f63879945999c6fe31c3fc7f666

Grace Chung

David Tedrow

WHAT FEEDS THE BEAST

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Regional Forecast

Subregional Forecast

Detailed Demographic Forecast

Transportation Model (ABM)

Land Inventory System

Current housing, jobs,

& population

Local land plans &

policies

Jurisdictional review

Historical data

Current demographics

DOF projections

Demographic trends

Expert review

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Base Year Info

General Plan

Housing Capacity

Sched Dev Project

Constraint

SubregionalGrowth ForecastModel

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Base Year Info

-Land Use

-Housing Unit

-Housing Type

General Plan

Housing Capacity

Sched Dev Project

Constraint


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SANDAG’s Land Inventory System

1971

1981

2020

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Parcel Integration Process

• Annual Process• SanGIS Parcels and ROWs• “LANDCORE” (Land Use

Inventory editing layer)

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Land Use Codes

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25


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~830,000

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Base Year Info

-Land Use

-Housing Unit

-Housing Type

General Plan

-Planned Land Use

-Housing Density

Housing Capacity

-Housing Capacity (unit)

-Housing Type

Sched Dev Project

Constraint


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General Plan (or community plans from local jurisdictions)

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Housing Capacity

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Base Year Info

-Land Use

-Housing Unit

-Housing Type

General Plan

-Planned Land Use

-Housing Density

Housing Capacity


-Housing Type

Sched Dev Project

-Project Name

-Housing Type/Unit

-Jobs

Constraint


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Scheduled Development Project

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Base Year Info

-Land Use

-Housing Unit

-Housing Type

General Plan

-Planned Land Use

-Housing Density

Housing Capacity


-Housing Type

Sched Dev Project

-Project Name

-Housing Type/Unit

-Jobs

Constraint

-Conserved Land

-Steep Slopes

-Flood Plains

-Fire Hazard Zones


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DevelopmentConstraints

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Beast

Base Year Info

-Land Use

-Housing Unit

-Housing Type

General Plan

-Planned Land Use

-Housing Density

Housing Capacity


-Housing Type

Sched Dev Project

-Project Name

-Housing Type/Unit

-Jobs

Constraints

-Conserved Land

-Steep Slopes

-Flood Plains

-Fire Hazard Zones


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Regional Growth Forecast and SCS Land Use Pattern

DOF Population

Projections

Other External

Data

Economic Model

Regional

Modeling

SB 375

Requirements

Housing

Parameters

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction

Data

Demographics

Sub-Regional

Modeling

Housing Units

by Type

Population Households

Characteristics

Jobs by Sector

Planning

Strategies

Synthetic

Population

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Regional Growth Forecast

DOF Population

Projections

Other External

Data

Economic Model

Regional

Modeling

SB 375

Requirements

Housing

Parameters

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction

Data

DOF Population Forecast

• By age by gender by race-

ethnicity

• Annual from current year through

horizon year

Census Data

• Trends in headship rates and

household size

• Vital Statistics

• Migration

Economic Model

• Labor force participation rates

• Unemployment

• Inflation

• GRP

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DOF Population

Projections

Other External

Data

Economic Model

Regional

Modeling

SB 375

Requirements

Housing

Parameters

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction

Data

Mandates

• Sufficient housing for region’s jobs

• Latest local plans

• RHNA

• GHG

Board of Directors

• Vacancy rate

• Unoccupiable units

• Household size

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DOF Population

Projections

Other External

Data

Economic Model

Regional

Modeling

SB 375

Requirements

Housing

Parameters

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction

Data

Output - Housing Units

• Based on changing population

(count by cohort (age))

• Headship rates and HH size –

targeting 2010 (considered

“healthy”) levels by 2035

• Considering Unoccupiable units,

ADUs (if needed), vacancy rate

Output – Characteristics

• Census data to convert population

into HHs by size and age and

race/ethnicity

• Economic model for income

Output – Jobs

• Economic model by sector

• Labor participation rate applied to

population by cohort

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SCS Land Use Pattern

SB 375

Requirements

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction

Data

Demographics

Sub-Regional

Modeling

Housing Units

by Type


Characteristics

Jobs by Sector

Planning

Strategies

Synthetic

Population

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SCS Land Use Requirements

• SB 375 requires the Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) to include a pattern for forecasted growth and development that accomplishes the following:

− When combined with the transportation network, will achieve the regional greenhouse gas reduction targets;

− Accommodates the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) Determination; and

− Utilizes the most recent planning assumptions.

GHG Target RHNA

Latest Planning

Assumptions

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Jurisdictional and CPA Totals

• Region to Jurisdiction and CPA

− Parcel level capacity (from local jurisdictions) within each

− Scheduled development events

− Share of region’s total capacity

• RHNA mandate

− Each jurisdiction to meet targets by 2035

− Increased capacity in Del Mar, Solana Beach, Coronado and Lemon Grove

− Added to jurisdiction’s Smart Growth Opportunity Areas

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MGRA Level Totals*

Process Development

• Conducted sensitivity tests with ABM2+

• Drove creation of the Mobility Hub network

• Identified priority areas for housing growth

• Developed MGRA scoring process

* Master Geographic Reference Areas

− Similar to census blocks

− 23k in region

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Sensitivity Tests - Key Results

• As household growth is focused in low VMT areas

− Decrease in VMT and auto ownership,

− non-driving mode shares increase, and

− trip length for non-work trips decrease

• Developed Mobility Hub Network to prioritize low VMT areas

• Land use mixing factor and opportunities for residential redevelopment considered in SCS Land Use methodology

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Areas for future housing and job growth

• Mobility Hubs

• Smart Growth Opportunity Areas

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Housing Allocation

• Defining Priority Areas by MGRA (Develop Scoring Criteria)− Environmental factors

− Proximity to job spaces

− Mobility Hub Propensity Analysis – proximity/presence by mode

− Land Use Mixing

• For High Scoring MGRAs:

− Utilize all planned housing capacity

− Identify potential residential redevelopment to add housing capacity

− 2050 housing growth not to exceed jurisdiction's planned capacity, except where needed to meet RHNA

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Job Allocation

• Focus within MoHubs and SGOAs

• Jurisdiction provided parcel data

− Supported by planned land use

− Job capacity exists

• Presence of existing jobs

− Share within the region

− In-progress scheduled development

• Additional factors

− Near new housing

− Transit

− Industry sectors

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NAVWAR

• Includes revitalization of Navy Old Town Campus (OTC)

• Current site of the Naval Information Warfare Systems Command (NAVWAR)

• Includes a Central Mobility Hub at the OTC property

− More than 9,500 additional housing units

− Support employment

• Almost two million square feet of office and retail space

• Almost 450 hotel rooms

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SB 375

Requirements

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction

Data

Demographics

Sub-Regional

Modeling

Housing Units

by Type


Characteristics

Jobs by Sector

Planning

Strategies

Synthetic

Population

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SB 375

Requirements

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction

Data

Demographics

Sub-Regional

Modeling

Housing Units

by Type


Characteristics

Jobs by Sector

Planning

Strategies

Synthetic

Population

MGRA-level data

Annual, 2016-2050

Housing Units by

Single Family

Multi-Family

Mobile Homes

Occupied

Vacant

Unoccupiable

Population by

Age

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

HH Pop

Group Quarters

Military

Civilian

Jobs by

Industry Sector

NAICS Codes

Synthetic Persons

HH ID

ASE

Education, occupation, work status

Synthetic Households

Income, Poverty

Building and Unit info

Vehicles, workers

Rick Curry

Mike Calandra

Wu Sun

PROJECT UPDATES

A Vision for Economic Growth, Sustainability, Innovation, and Social Equity

June 2021

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State Route 11 / Otay Mesa East

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State Route 11 / Otay Mesa East Investment Grade Traffic & Revenue Study

• Binational Traffic & Revenue Model Investment Grade

• Schedule Draft Revenue Numbers by July 30

• Data Update

− Wait times northbound and southbound

− Traffic counts in Tijuana and SD border region

− Surveys

• Passenger vehicle in-person survey – Pre-COVID

• Passenger vehicle stated preference online survey

• Commercial vehicle surveys – industry and companies

− Travel times/speeds

• INRIX

• Sin Tráfico

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State Route 11 / Otay Mesa East Investment Grade Traffic & Revenue Study

Model

• Level II T&R Model still in use

• Methodology changes for opening/closing lanes

Tijuana & US

• Networks

• Internal trips

Cross-Border Demand

• Future growth

oCommercial vehicles

oPassenger vehicles

• Origin-Destination

• Value of Time

Binational Traffic & Revenue Model Update

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ABM2+ Subarea Enhancement

• Scope and schedule

− Project Management

− Employment Density Update

− Existing Processes and Model Enhancement Plan

− Model Enhancements

− Application Tests

− Trip Table Data Report and Threshold Definitions

− Final Report and Workshop

− As Needed Support

We are here

Expecting to start in September

ABM2+ production work begins

after Board adoption of the 2021

Regional Plan (November)

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• Employment density update

− Refresh of existing "Employees per Square Foot" of non-residential space

• SANDAG Data Solutions & Economic and Demographic Analysis and Modeling

• California Economic Development Department (EDD)

• Costar

• Buildings

• ITE

− School employment

• Calculated using existing enrollment-to-employment ratios

− New unit types

• Beds: Update Group Quarters population and scale employment

• Acres: Calculate employment for non-residential uses that do not include building space

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• Model enhancements for customized subarea ABM scenarios

− Convert all scripts to Python

− Procedures to override residential and non-residential land use assumptions

− Procedures to update the synthetic population

• Household sampling

− Use of a flexible TAZ system to accommodate study areas

• MGRA is still the atomic geographic unit

• Build vs No Build

− The 4D's

− Automated QA/QC input checking and output reporting

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• Project challenges

− Sample rates

− Shadow pricing

− Work location choice

− Commercial vehicle model

− Model run timesJobs Ahead

Alt 1 Alt 2

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• Trip Table Data Report

− Expected trips per unit by land use code

− Parsed by Major Statistical Area (MSA) & Area Type

− Base year model data -- not observed data!

• Subarea Thresholds

− Define the required amount of Population and Employment in a project study area to render VMT and Mode Choice reports as statistically significant

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Model Development Plan for 2025RP

• Priorities-the 4M

− Activity-Based Model (Core Resident Model-ABM3, aka the BEAST per mca)

− Rapid Strategic Model (RSM)

− Commercial vehicle model (CVM)

− Crossborder Model (CBM)

*Features and priorities to be finalized via a series of discussions with stakeholders

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• Timeline

− CBM

• Beta working version: 12/31/2021; Final version: 3/31/2022

− RSM:

• 12/31/2022

− CVM

• 12/31/2023

− ABM3

• Beta working version: 12/31/2023; Peer reviewed: 3/31/2024

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• What about the other Ms?

− Airport Models (2)

− Visitor Model

− External Trip Models

− Heavy Truck Model

− TCOV Upgrade?

• Refresh vs Reconstruct

− Data & Marginal Controls

− Software

− Model Structure (aka math, sequence, & algorithms)

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Software for 2025RP Modeling

• From CT-RAMP to ActivitySim

• From Java (mostly) to Python

• What is ActivitySim?

− AMPO led consortium to create and maintain advanced and open-source ABM software based on best software development practices

− SANDAG is one of the founding member agencies

− A suite of light, fast, easy to maintain, and cost-effective models built on top of ActivitySim for 2025RP

https://activitysim.github.io/

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• Risks & Challenges

− Data, data, & data

• CVM survey

• Household travel behavior survey that represents ‘new normal’

• Parking inventory & behavior survey

− COVID impact on base year

• Seems like we will have to change base year in the middle of the project

− Software is heavy lifting

− Futuristic modes & technologies

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Forum Agenda Recap

• Welcome and Introductions

• Travel Model Visualizations

• What Feeds the Beast

• Project Updates

June 9, 2021

TRANSPORTATION MODEL FORUM

transportation model forum

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