Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to the

2009 APTA Rail Conference

presented by

William RobertCambridge Systematics, Inc.

June 2009

State-of-the-Art in Evaluating Transit State of Good Repair

2

Outline

Defining State of Good Repair

State of the practice review

Case study: Virginia Department of Rail & Public Transit (DRPT) Program Guidance and Grant Evaluation System (PROGGRES)

Opportunities for improvement

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Defining SGR

Difficult to define

Easiest to observe in its absence

Common themes

• Meeting a certain level of service

• Performing maintenance, repair, rehabilitation and renewal according to a considered agency policy

• Reducing or eliminating a backlog of unmet capital needs

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Transportation Asset Management Process

Policy Goals and ObjectivesPolicy Goals and Objectives

Analysis of Options and TradeoffsAnalysis of Options and Tradeoffs

Resource Allocation DecisionsResource Allocation Decisions

FinancialFinancial StaffStaff EquipmentEquipment OtherOther

Program and Service DeliveryProgram and Service Delivery

System Condition and Service LevelsSystem Condition and Service Levels

Funding LevelsFunding Levels

Customer InputCustomer Input

PreservationPreservation OperationsOperationsCapacityCapacity

ExpansionExpansion

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Working Definition of SGR

A state that results from application of transportation asset A state that results from application of transportation asset management concepts in which a transit agency maintains its management concepts in which a transit agency maintains its physical assets according to a policy that minimizes asset life physical assets according to a policy that minimizes asset life cycle costs while avoiding negative impacts to transit servicecycle costs while avoiding negative impacts to transit service

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Best Practice:Collecting Inventory & Condition Data

Agencies typically have some form of asset inventory

Frequently shaped by NTD reporting requirements

• NTD reporting frequently the basis of the inventory for smaller agencies

• Larger agencies/rail systems typically have a much more detailed inventory

Examples available of state of the art systems for

• Fleet

• Facilities

• Rail

• Bridge

• Maintenance management

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Best Practice:Condition Forecasting

When performed, typically model remaining service life using statistical models

Relatively few systems

Examples

• FTA TERM

• MBTA SGR

• DRPT PROGGRES

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Best Practice:Capital Programming Scenarios

Typical approach is to predict new capital needs based on time-based engineering rules

• Replace rail cars at 35 years

• Replace structure at 50 years

Reflects available data

Issues

• Results reflect engineering judgment, but have not been subjected to economic analysis

• Provides limited capability for “what if” analysis

• Supplemental analysis need to assess impacts to service of not performing recommended actions

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Case Study: DRPT PROGGRESSystem Functionality

Predicting capital needs for DRPT grantees

Evaluating grant applications for consistency with the capital needs analysis

Collating and organizing quantitative evaluations of capital grant applications using public benefit models (developed separately) and qualitative evaluations

Presenting summary scores and rankings for individual capital grant line items

Evaluating the impact of different DRPT capital grant funding policies

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Case Study: DRPT PROGGRESAsset Types Supported

Buses

Rail rolling stock

Facilities

Infrastructure items

• Track

• Signage

• Bus shelters

Miscellaneous other assets

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Case Study: DRPT PROGGRESModeling Approach

Rolling stock

• Estimated service life (ESL): when a vehicle reaches its ESL, PROGGRES recommends that the vehicle be replaced

• Estimated service life and mileage (ESLM): actions are recommended based on estimated service life or service mileage (either can trigger an action)

• Stochastic version of the ESLM model (ESLMST): adds a percentage probability that an action may be triggered one or two years before or after the point predicted by ESLM

Other assets

• Replaced/rehabilitated at their ESL, with cost spread over a specified number of years

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Case Study: DRPT PROGGRESExample Needs Analysis

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$160,000,000

$180,000,000

Inv

estm

ent

Nee

d (

$)

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Year

Needs Forecast - Bus Rolling Stock

Ferry Boats

Sedan / Station Wagon

Vans

Bus < 30 FT

Bus 30 FT

Bus STD 35 FT

Bus STD 40 FT

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Case Study: DRPT PROGGRESTesting Funding Policies

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Opportunities for Improvement inSGR Analysis

Relating investment needs to impacts on service

• Support time-based rules with analysis of the impacts of not performing recommended preservation activities on future agency costs and transit service

• Backlog projections should be accompanied by information on the implications of a given investment backlog

Improving upon available asset data

• Not practical to perform a realistic analysis for rail relying strictly upon NTD – but NTD is the only data source consistently available

Improving communication

• Needed both within agencies and with the public

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Questions