transportation, energy, and emissions: an overview presentation by dr. george c. eads vice...

Transportation, Energy, and Emissions: An Overview

Presentation by Dr. George C. EadsVice President, CRAI International

Conference on Global Energy and Climate ChangeLake Arrowhead, California

October 22, 2006

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Transport sector is a very large user of energy

*Includes residential, commercial & public services, and agriculture Source: WEO2004

Final Energy Consumption by Sector/Use (Mtoe)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2002 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Non-energy Use

Other Sectors*

Industry

Transport

26%29%

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… and one of the largest emitters of CO2 Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector (Mt)

Source: IEA WEO2004

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2002 2010 2020 2030

Mt

Non-energy use

Other sectors

Industry

Transport

Transformation, own use and losses

Power generation and heat plants

21%

23%

*Includes residential, commercial & public services, and agriculture

*

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Well over 90% of transport fuels are oil-basedShare of transport energy by fuel

Source: IEA/SMP Spreadsheet Model Reference Case

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030

Not oil-based

Residual fuel

Jet fuel

Diesel

Gasoline

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The transport sector is by far the largest user of oil

Source: IEA WEO2004

Oil Use by Sector (Mtoe)

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500

1000

1500

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3500

2002 2010 2020 2030

Mto

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Transport

Industry

All Other Sectors

Non-energy Uses

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Three transport modes account for about 80% of all transport energy use

Source: IEA/SMP Spreadsheet Model Reference Case

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030

exaj

ou

les

Water

Rail

Buses

2-3 wheelers

Air

Freight trucks

LDVs

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The same three modes also account for about 80% of transport vehicle CO2 emissions

Source: SMP/IEA Spreadsheet Model Reference Case

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1000

2000

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7000

8000

9000

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2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

2-3 wheelers

Freight + Passenger rail

Buses

Water-borne

Air

Freight trucks

LDVs

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At present, the OECD countries are responsible for nearly 70% of transport energy use, but this will change

Share of Transport Energy Use by Region (excluding international waterborne)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

India

Other Asia

China

Eastern Europe

FSU

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

OECD North America


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They also are responsible for approximately 80% of CO2 emissions from LDVs…


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

India

Other Asia

China

Eastern Europe

FSU

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

OECD North America

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…for about 55% of the emissions from medium and heavy duty freight trucks

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

India

Other Asia

China

Eastern Europe

FSU

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

OECD North America


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Note: One half of emissions from flights between regions allocated to each regionNote: Does not account for contrails, NOx, etc.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

India

Other Asia

China

Eastern Europe

FSU

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

OECD North America

…and for about 75% of air transport emissions

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The principal driver of transport energy and transport CO2 growth has been – and will continue to be -- growth the demand for personal and goods transport services

Rate of Change in Energy Use

=Rate of Change in

Transport Demand* +

Rate of Change in Energy Intensity of Vehicle Stock

Personal TransportLDVs 1.5% 1.9% -0.4%Mini-buses 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%Large buses 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%2-wheelers 2.4% 2.3% 0.1%Air transport 2.6% 3.3% -0.7%

Freight TransportMedium trucks 2.0% 2.7% -0.7%Heavy trucks 1.8% 2.4% -0.7%Rail 1.7% 2.2% -0.4%

Source: IEA/SMP Spreadsheet Model Calculations*Units for personal transport demand: vehicle-kilometers except for air, which is passenger kilometers. Units for freight transport demand: tonne-kilometers

Decomposition of projected rate average annual rate of change in transport energy use: 2000-2050

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SMP projections of personal transport demand

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These personal transport demand projections do not imply private motorized vehicle ownership rates typical of OECD countries

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Nor do they imply personal transport levels per capita that are equivalent to today’s OECD country levels


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They are driven by growth in real per capita incomeRelationship between per capita personal travel and per capita real income, 2000

OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

FSU

Eastern Europe

China

Other AsiaIndia

Middle EastLatin America

Africa

y = 0.7102x + 0.8399

R2 = 0.9447

0

5

10

15

20

25

$0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0

Real Per Capita Income (US$, PPP Basis)

Tra

ve

l p

er

Ca

pit

a (

tho

us

an

ds

of

pa

ss

en

ge

r-k

ilo

me

ters

pe

r y

ea

r)


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Projected growth in real per capita GDP (PPP basis)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2000-2025 2025-2050 2000-2050

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

Gro

wth

Rat

e

China

Eastern Europe

India

FSU

Other Asia

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

OECD North America

`


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2000 2025 2050 AAGR 2000-2025 (%) AAGR 2025-2050 (%)OECD North America $26.0 $35.9 $47.2 1.30% 1.10%OECD Europe $18.8 $30.7 $45.1 1.99% 1.55%OECD Pacific $22.1 $35.7 $57.7 1.93% 1.94%

OECD average $22.0 $33.7 $48.0 1.72% 1.43%

FSU $5.6 $12.3 $24.4 3.23% 2.76%Eastern Europe $4.6 $12.1 $29.9 3.99% 3.67%China $3.8 $11.1 $27.4 4.37% 3.66%Other Asia $3.3 $6.0 $10.8 2.43% 2.34%India $2.2 $5.3 $11.7 3.51% 3.19%Middle East $5.7 $6.2 $7.1 0.32% 0.56%Latin America $6.3 $9.8 $16.1 1.78% 2.01%Africa $1.9 $2.8 $4.0 1.47% 1.46%

Non-OECD average $3.5 $7.0 $13.1 2.83% 2.56%

World Average $6.9 $11.2 $17.8 1.94% 1.88%

What these growth rates imply for future income levelsLevel and average annual rate of growth of real per capita GDP (PPP basis)

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Why we need to think in terms of “well-to-wheels” emissions when evaluating policies to reduce transport-related GHG emissions

• Transport-related CO2 emissions are the sum of three emissions categories

1. Vehicle emissions (TTW) = emissions from the combustion of fuel by the vehicle’s engine

2. Fuel cycle emissions (WTT) = emissions associated with the production and distribution of transport fuel

3. Vehicle manufacturing, distribution, and disposal emissions

• For a MY1996 midsize US passenger car, each category is estimated to be responsible for the following share of total transport-related emissions over the life of the vehicle:

– Vehicle emissions: 75%– Fuel cycle emissions: 19%– Vehicle manufacturing, distribution, and disposal emissions: 7%

• These percentages are likely to change radically in the future

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ICE

ICE Hybrid

Fuel Cell

“Well-to-wheels” emissions of different fuel/propulsion system combinations – mid-sized European passenger car

Source: SMP, Mobility 2030

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“Well-to-wheels” emissions of different fuel/propulsion system combinations


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“Well-to-wheels” emissions of different fuel/propulsion system combinations


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Impact of various vehicle technologies and fuels transport-related GHG emissionsEmissions simulations using the SMP/IEA spreadsheet model

• SMP conducted two “illustrative simulations”

• Simulations tried to capture in-use effectiveness (not theoretical potential) of technologies and timing of their introduction and widespread diffusion

• Simulations didn’t consider costs or consumer acceptance in determining timing or introduction or rates of diffusion

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Simulation #1: Impact of individual technologies on worldwide WTW GHG emissions from road vehicles

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Simulation #2 – Identify plausible combination of actions that could return worldwide road vehicle WTW GHG emission to their 2000 level by 2050

Σ(1+2+3+4+5)

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Some concluding observations

1. Growth in demand for transport services (personal and freight) has been the primary driver of transport energy demand and transport-related GHG emissions. Demand for transport services will continue to grow as incomes grow. The rate of growth of demand for transport services is not immutable, but shouldn’t underestimate difficulty of change.

2. Eventually, transport must be largely eliminated as a significant source of GHG emissions. To do this, transport GHG emissions must be decoupled from transport energy use. Requires renewables and/or carbon sequestration of emissions from production of synthetic fuels.

3. Transport energy use likely to grow more rapidly than demand for transport services due to the increased energy requirements of producing carbon-free transport fuels.

4. In the very long run, transport vehicle energy efficiency is likely to become virtually irrelevant to transport GHG emissions; it will only determine the amount of carbon-free transport fuel that must be produced.

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Backup slides

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Simulation #1

Assumptions• Diesel ICE technology (using conventional diesel fuel) was assumed to have an 18% fuel consumption

benefit versus the prevailing gasoline ICE technology during the entire period

• Fuel consumption benefit relative to gasoline ICE technology assumed to be 36% for diesel hybrids, 30% for gasoline hybrids, and 45% for fuel-cell vehicles.

• For diesels and advanced hybrids, 100% sales penetration (worldwide) reached by 2030 in light-duty vehicles and medium-duty trucks

• For fuel cells,100% sales penetration (worldwide) reached by 2050; hydrogen produced by reforming natural gas, no carbon sequestration

• For “carbon neutral” hydrogen, change WTT emissions characteristics of the hydrogen used in fuel cell case above

• For biofuels, assumed that would be used in a world road vehicle fleet similar in energy use characteristics to the SMP reference fleet

Note: impacts are not additive

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Simulation #2

Applied seven “increments”* in order shown (are additive, but order matters)

1. Dieselisation. For light-duty vehicles and medium-duty trucks, rises to around 45% globally by 2030.

2. Hybridisation. For light-duty vehicles and medium-duty trucks increases to half of all ICE vehicles sold by 2030.

3. Conventional and advanced biofuels. The quantity of biofuels in the total worldwide gasoline and diesel pool rises steadily, reaching one-third by 2050.

4. Fuel cells using hydrogen derived from fossil fuels (no carbon sequestration). Mass market sales of light-duty vehicles and medium-duty trucks start in 2020 and rise to half of all vehicle sales by 2050.

5. Carbon neutral hydrogen used in fuel cells. Hydrogen sourcing for fuel cells switches to centralized production of carbon-neutral hydrogen over the period 2030-2050 once hydrogen LDV fleets reach significant penetration at a country level. By 2050, 80% of hydrogen is produced by carbon-neutral processes.

6. Additional fleet-level vehicle energy efficiency improvement. SMP reference case projects an average improvement in the energy efficiency of the on-road light-duty vehicle fleet of about 0.4% per year. We assume that the average annual in-use fleet-level improvement rises by an additional10% (i.e., from about 0.4% to about 0.6%).

7. A 10% reduction in emissions due to better traffic flow and other efficiency improvements in road vehicle use .

*Assumptions of effectiveness of technologies identical to those used in prior simulation

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SMP/IEA spreadsheet modelModel and documentation available at www.sustainablemobility.org

• Model developed jointly by SMP and the IEA’s Energy Technology Policy Division• Model benchmarked to IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO2002)

– WEO projections only extend to 2030; model extrapolates to 2050• Model covers same regions/countries as WEO, but much more modal detail

– Regions/countries OECD Europe, OECD North America, OECD Pacific, Former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, Other

Asia, India, Middle East, Latin America, and Africa– Modes

Light duty personal vehicles, motorized 2 and 3 wheelers, buses, medium and heavy freight trucks, passenger and freight rail, air transport, internal and overseas waterborne

• Emissions projections include fuel cycle as well as vehicle emissions, though are calculated separately

– WTT emissions include N2O and CH4 • Model used to generate “reference case”

– Assumes that “present trends continue”– Policies already being implemented are completed; no new policies assumed

• Model also used to conduct simulations

transportation, energy, and emissions: an overview presentation by dr. george c. eads vice...

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