TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGESTRANSPORTATION CHALLENGES

OF THE OF THE 21st CENTURY21st CENTURYTRANSPORTATION CHALLENGESTRANSPORTATION CHALLENGES

OF THE OF THE 21st CENTURY21st CENTURYbyby

Robert Q. RileyRobert Q. Riley

Ford hybrid-electric concept car

WORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATION

Greater Demand & Less Greater Demand & Less ResourcesResources

Accelerated Greenhouse Accelerated Greenhouse EmissionsEmissions

Environment & Energy Environment & Energy Trends = Negative Trends = Negative Economic Impacts Economic Impacts

Developing World - 300% Increase Between 1995 & 2020Developing World - 300% Increase Between 1995 & 2020

TREND IN WORLD CAR POPULATION

0

100000000

200000000

300000000

400000000

500000000

600000000

700000000

800000000

900000000

YEAR

World Car Population

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CARS IN REST OF WORLD

CARS IN U.S.

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVESWORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES

Billion Barrels

Total Remaining

Total Recovered

UnitedStates

Canada

Mexico,Central America,& South America

WesternEurope

MiddleEast

EasternEurope,FormerU.S.S.R.,China

OtherEasternHemisphere

Total Oil Recovered Since 1859 & Total Remaining as of 1990

Protecting Against Limited Supplies, Protecting Against Limited Supplies, Future Monopolies, and Price IncreasesFuture Monopolies, and Price Increases

GREENHOUSE EMISSIONSGREENHOUSE EMISSIONS& GLOBAL WARMING& GLOBAL WARMING

GREENHOUSE EMISSIONSGREENHOUSE EMISSIONS& GLOBAL WARMING& GLOBAL WARMING

IndustrialProcesses

10.9%

Fuel Combustion5.5%

Miscellaneous10.9%

Transportation 76.6%

Source of U.S. COSource of U.S. CO22 Emissions Emissions19971997

Global Carbon EmissionsGlobal Carbon Emissions1820 to 20201820 to 2020

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

202019801940190018601820

ProjectionHistory

THE REAL COST OF THE REAL COST OF PETROLEUM MOTOR FUELPETROLEUM MOTOR FUEL

THE REAL COST OF THE REAL COST OF PETROLEUM MOTOR FUELPETROLEUM MOTOR FUEL

Environmental DamageEnvironmental Damage

Agricultural LossesAgricultural Losses

Increased Health Care ExpensesIncreased Health Care Expenses

Higher Insurance PremiumsHigher Insurance Premiums

U.S. Military Expenses for U.S. Military Expenses for Protecting Middle East Oil Protecting Middle East Oil SuppliesSupplies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$45/Barrel

$15/Barrel

$9/Barrel

Price of a Barrel of OilPrice of a Barrel of Oil

Actual Cost of Oil is at Least $69 Per Barrel

DIFFERENT ROADS: AUTOMOBILES FOR THE NEXT CENTURY

DIFFERENT ROADS: AUTOMOBILES FOR THE NEXT CENTURY

Hybrid Power SystemsHybrid Power Systems Battery Electric CarsBattery Electric Cars New Vehicle TypesNew Vehicle Types Alternative FuelsAlternative Fuels Restructured CitiesRestructured Cities New Ways of WorkingNew Ways of Working

XR-3 Tilting Three Wheel Vehicle