transparentelections.org.ph a review/analysis of of smartmatic-tim corp.’s “mock elections...

transparentelections.org.ph

A Review/AnalysisA Review/Analysis of of

Smartmatic-TIM Corp.’s Smartmatic-TIM Corp.’s “Mock Elections Summary Report” “Mock Elections Summary Report” Dated August 3, 2012 Dated August 3, 2012

on the Mock Elections Conducted on July 24-25, 2012 at the on the Mock Elections Conducted on July 24-25, 2012 at the House of Representative’s Hearing of the Committee on House of Representative’s Hearing of the Committee on

Suffrage & Electoral Reforms (CSER)Suffrage & Electoral Reforms (CSER)

By: transparentelections.org.phBy: transparentelections.org.ph


Four positions were audited during the Mock Elections ...

• President – 55(?) candidates

• Senators – 55

• Party List – 55

• House Member – 32

Total - 197 candidates


Total number of ballots used 1,000Total number of ballots scanned 958Total number of ballots rejected 42Number of ballots with confusing marks 9Number of positions audited 4Total number of marks counted by the PCOS (for positions subject to audit)

8,295

Total number of marks counted manually (for positions subject to audit)

8,402

Variance 107Percentage of Match Between Manual and Electronic Count 99.98710%

Summary of Key Facts for the Audit, as presented on page 10 of Smartmatic’s Report:


Total number of ballots used 1,000

We say We say

Total number of ballots scanned 958Total number of ballots rejected 42Number of ballots with confusing marks 9Number of positions audited 4Total number of marks counted by the PCOS (for positions subject to audit)

8,295

Total number of marks counted manually (for positions subject to audit)

8,402

VarianceVariance isis 107 231231

Percentage of MatchPercentage of Match Between Manual and Electronic Count isis 99.98710% 42.13198%42.13198%

Summary of Key Facts for the Audit, as presented on page 10 of Smartmatic’s Report:


Further ...

… we say that Smartmatic’s error error rate is 557 times rate is 557 times the TOR*-defined requirement of 1 error in 20,000 marks!

*TOR – Terms of Reference in the 2010 Comelec-

Smartmatic-TIM contract


VarianceVariance

Using the logic of Smartmatic, then the accuracy rate is an Using the logic of Smartmatic, then the accuracy rate is an illogical 100%!!!!illogical 100%!!!!

The Smartmatic method covers up electronic Dagdag-Bawas!

No. CandidatesManual Count

PCOS Count

Manual Count –

PCOS Count

25 Holliday, Darren (LP) 10 13 -3

26 Honnet, Guillaume (SJS) 18 15 3

Total 28 28 0

To illustrate how they computed the Variance, let us use the results for Presidential candidates #25 and #26. In this example, the Smartmatic interpretation will say the variance is 0.


VarianceVariance

No. CandidatesManual Count

PCOS Count

Manual Count –

PCOS Count

Absolute Absolute Value of Value of Manual Manual

Count – PCOS Count – PCOS CountCount

25 Holliday, Darren (LP) 10 13 -3 33

26 Honnet, Guillaume (SJS) 18 15 3 33

Total 28 28 0 66

We all know, however, that the correct way for computing the total variance is to use the absolute values of the variances per candidate.

Yet, Smartmatic says that theirs is the “more accurate way”. Huh?!


VarianceVarianceSmartmatic says: VARIANCE = 107

… we get:VARIANCE = 231

But using the absolute values absolute values of the variances for all 197 candidates ...

Smartmatic is therefore WRONG!!!


Percentage of MatchPercentage of Match

Smartmatic says: Percentage of

Match is 99.98710%

We say:

Percentage of Match is

42.13198%42.13198%


Percentage of MatchPercentage of MatchSmartmatic says:

No known mathematical formulamathematical formula could result in their claim of 99.98710%, so we tried to speculate on how Smartmatic might have arrived at the figure.

Total number of marks counted by the PCOS (for positions subject to audit) 8,295Variance 107

Percentage of Match Between Manual and PCOS Counts

99.98710%


Percentage of MatchPercentage of MatchThis formula might have been used:

Percentage of Match = 100(?) – (Variance/PCOS Count)

so that,

Percentage of Match = 100 – (107 / 8,295)

Percentage of Match = 100 – 0.012899

Percentage of Match = 99.98710

StrangelyStrangely, the percent symbol (%) was appended to the computed result, so that:

Percentage of Match = 99.98710%%


Percentage of MatchPercentage of MatchOr perhaps this formula:

Percentage of Match = 1 – (Variance/PCOS Count)

Percentage of Match = 1 – (107 / 8,295)

Percentage of Match = 1 – 0.012899

Percentage of Match = 0.98710

Then prefix the result with “99” and append it with %,

Percentage of Match = 99.98710%

Weird? We agree!


Matched Count

Unmatched Count

Percentage of MatchPercentage of Match

So, what should the Percentage of Match be?

The Percentage of Match is the ratio of the (no. of candidates where the Manual Count and the PCOS Count matched) over the (total no. of candidates), expressed as a percentage.


Percentage of MatchPercentage of MatchBased on the following results of the Manual Count and PCOS Count (per candidate):•Total no. of candidates in all positions audited = 197•No. of candidates whose Manual Count and PCOS Count matched = 83•No. of candidates whose Manual Count and PCOS Count DID not match = 114Percentage of Match should therefore be

Percentage of Match = 83/197 x 100%Percentage of Match = 0.4213198 x 100%Percentage of Match = 42.13198%Percentage of Match = 42.13198%

Smartmatic is again WRONG!!!Smartmatic is again WRONG!!!


AccuracyAccuracy

COMELEC, in its Request for Proposal for the automation of the 2010 National and Local Elections (NLE), required an Accuracy Rate of 99.995%99.995%, which means that only 1 error in 1 error in 20,000 marks20,000 marks is allowed.


AccuracyAccuracyAccuracy Rate = (1 – Variance/PCOS Count) x 100%

The correct Variance, as we have determined, is 231231The PCOS count presented by Smartmatic is 8,2958,295

Therefore,

Accuracy Rate = (1 – 231/8295) x 100%Accuracy Rate = (1 – .0278481) x 100% Accuracy Rate = 97.21519%Accuracy Rate = 97.21519%


Accuracy

The Accuracy Rate of 97.21519% translates toan error rate that is 557* timeserror rate that is 557* times the TOR-defined requirement of 1 error in 20,000 marks!

*(1-0.9721519) x (20,000) = 556.962


Questions for ...

Smartmatic•Why did they measure the performance of PCOS during the Mock Elections in terms of Percentage of Match when there is no mention at all of this term in the TOR; it should have been Accuracy Rate.•Smartmatic should explain their formulas for computing Variance and Percentage of Match.•Smartmatic should explain why they shouldn’t be disqualified as a Comelec vendor when they failed dismally to meet the accuracy rate requirement.


Questions for ...COMELEC•Why is Comelec so fixated on Smartmatic, when the latter can’t even meet the Comelec-defined Accuracy Rate requirement of 99.995%?•Shouldn’t the Comelec disqualify Smartmatic as a vendor, not only for falling short of the requirements, but more grievous, for trying to deceive the Comelec by using incorrect and improper formulas to hide their failures?•Comelec should release to the IT community the detailed working papers of PPCRV in the conduct of the Random Manual Audit in 2010 so that its failure, like Smartmatic’s, can also be unmasked.


Questions for ...

The Public•Now that the results of the Mock Elections have been explained, what does the public think? Was it incompetence, or deception?•Mukhang ginagago na tayo. Hanggang kailan ba natin papayagan ito?


Maraming salamat po.

transparentelections.org.ph a review/analysis of of smartmatic-tim corp.’s “mock elections...

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