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1 Transmission Leadership Forum JANUARY 13, 2011

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Transmission Leadership Forum. JANUARY 13, 2011. Safe Harbor Provisions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Transmission Leadership Forum

1

Transmission Leadership Forum

JANUARY 13, 2011

Page 2: Transmission Leadership Forum

2

This presentation contains statements concerning NU’s expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, goals, strategies, assumptions of future events, future financial performance or growth and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, a listener or reader can identify these forward-looking statements through the use of words or phrases such as “estimate”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “believe”, “forecast”, “should”, “could”, and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations, estimates, assumptions or projections of management and are not guarantees of future performance. These expectations, estimates, assumptions or projections may vary materially from actual results. Accordingly, any such statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to, and are accompanied by, the following important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, actions or inaction of local, state and federal regulatory and taxing bodies; changes in business and economic conditions, including their impact on interest rates, bad debt expense and demand for our products and services; changes in weather patterns; changes in laws, regulations or regulatory policy; changes in levels and timing of capital expenditures; disruptions in the capital markets or other events that make our access to necessary capital more difficult or costly; developments in legal or public policy doctrines; technological developments; changes in accounting standards and financial reporting regulations; fluctuations in the value of our remaining competitive electricity positions; actions of rating agencies; the effects and outcome of our pending merger with NSTAR; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors. Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in our reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or circumstances occurring after the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

This presentation does not include any information concerning our proposed merger with NSTAR. Please refer to our and NSTAR’s joint Registration Statement Form S-4 which was filed with the SEC on November 22, 2010 for information concerning this proposed merger.

Please refer to our reports to the SEC for further details concerning the matters described in this presentation.

Safe Harbor Provisions

Page 3: Transmission Leadership Forum

3

How Investors Analyze NU Today

• 2010 share price performance

• Transmission, as investors see the business

• Distribution rate cases and results

• Generation initiatives

Page 4: Transmission Leadership Forum

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2010 Stock Comparisons

12/31/2010 11/30/2010 Difference 12/31/2010 09/30/2010 Difference 12/31/2010 12/31/2009 Difference

Northeast Utilities $31.88 $31.10 2.51% $31.88 $29.57 7.81% $31.88 $25.79 23.61%

NU Comparators Avg. 1.80% 1.97% 11.68%

Primarily Regulated Companies Avg. 3.11% 3.38% 7.59%

Utilities with Merchant Generation Avg. 3.94% -2.23% -7.24%

Pure Merchants Avg. 7.25% 2.83% -19.71%

Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 11577.51 11006.02 5.19% 11577.51 10,788.05 7.32% 11577.51 10428.05 11.02%Dow Jones Utility Avg. 404.99 391.4 3.47% 404.99 398.23 1.70% 404.99 398.01 1.75%NASDAQ 2652.87 2498.23 6.19% 2652.87 2,368.62 12.00% 2652.87 2269.15 16.91%S&P 500 Avg. 1257.64 1180.55 6.53% 1257.64 1,141.20 10.20% 1257.64 1115.1 12.78%

Month Quarter Year To Date

Page 5: Transmission Leadership Forum

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NU Comparator Companies

How Did NU Shares Perform in 2010?Actual YTD

TSR

Total Shareholder Return for Comparator Companies Through 12/31/10

Rank Company TSR

1 NU 28.3%

2 LNT 27.2%

3 OGE 27.1%

4 CMS 23.6%

5 TEG 22.4%

6 WEC 21.7%

7 NI 21.3%

8 NST 19.8%

9 PNW 19.7%

10 NVE 17.7%

11 XEL 16.1%

12 TE 15.4%

13 POM 15.3%

14 ED 14.9%

14 CNP 14.2%

15 SCG 13.2%

16 PGN 12.6%

17 DTE 8.9%

18 AEE 6.9%

20 AYE 6.0%

21 GXP 4.7%

GXPAYEAEEDTENU LNT OGE CMS TEG WEC NI NST PNW NVE XEL TE POM ED CNP SCG PGN

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Page 6: Transmission Leadership Forum

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NU Comparator Companies

2008 – 2010Actual YTD

TSR

Total Shareholder Return for Comparator Companies Through 12/31/10 Rank Company TSR

1 NST 33.1%

2 WEC 31.6%

3 TE 22.1%

4 XEL 20.5%

5 ED 19.9%

6 CMS 19.2%

7 PNW 17.3%

8 NU 13.8%

9 NI 12.9%

10 SCG 12.8%

11 CNP 8.4%

12 LNT 4.5%

13 NVE -8.2%

14 POM -24.6%

15 AEE -37.4%

16 AYE -59.3%

NST WEC TE XEL ED CMS PNW NU NI SCG CNP LNT

NVE POM AEE AYE

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Page 7: Transmission Leadership Forum

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Transmission Now Represents More Than 50% of Regulated Earnings

$41.1

$122.3$171.6

2005 12 Months Ended September 30, 2010

Regulated Net Income and EPS(In millions except EPS)

Distribution/Generation

Transmission

Net Income: $163.4Regulated EPS: $1.24

Net Income: $341.6Regulated EPS: $1.94

74.8%

25.2%50.2%

49.8%

$170.0

Page 8: Transmission Leadership Forum

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$0.3

$42.8

$22.5

$64.8

($0.8)

$100.5

$0.1($0.5)

$45.2

$55.7

($10)

$10

$30

$50

$70

$90

$110

2009

2010

Third Quarter 2010 Results

Distribution and Generation

Transmission Parent/Other Competitive Total

Ear

nin

gs

Fo

r C

om

mo

n In

Mill

ion

s

147.5%

5.6%

55.1%

Page 9: Transmission Leadership Forum

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Third Quarter 2010 Distribution and Generation Results

($4.5)

$10.7$11.4

$4.9

($2.9)

$3.7

$23.4

$31.5

($10)

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

2009

2010

CL&P PSNH WMECO Yankee Gas

Ear

nin

gs

Fo

r C

om

mo

n In

Mill

ion

s

176.3%

118.7%

24.5%

Page 10: Transmission Leadership Forum

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2010 EPS Guidance Raised in November

2009 ActualInitial

2010 Guidance

August

2010 GuidanceNovember 2010

Guidance

Net income attributable to controlling interest (GAAP)

$1.91 $1.80 - $2.00 $1.95 - $2.05 $2.10 - $2.20

Distribution/Generation $0.92 $0.95 - $1.05 $1.00 - $1.10 $1.10 - $1.20

Transmission $0.95 $0.90 - $0.95 $0.95 $1.00

Competitive $0.09 $0.00 - $0.05 $0.05 $0.05

NU Parent/Other ($0.05) ($0.05) ($0.05) ($0.05)*

NU Consolidated (Non-GAAP)

$1.91 $1.80 – $2.00 $1.95 – $2.05 $2.10 – $2.20*

*Excludes a $0.09 fourth quarter non-recurring tax gain at NU Parent and approximately $0.07 of NU-NSTAR merger related expenses that will be recorded in the fourth quarter

Page 11: Transmission Leadership Forum

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Strong Dividend Growth Continued Through 2010

Dividend policy ($)

$0.00

$0.25

$0.50

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

62.5%

48.7%

44.3%

49.7%

$1.95–$2.05

$1.86²

$1.16¹

$1.59

$0.825$0.775

$0.725

$0.95

Payout ratiosEPS Dividends paid/declared per share

1 Excludes net income of competitive businesses, one-time CL&P tax reduction2 Excludes litigation settlement charge

$1.91

$1.025

Page 12: Transmission Leadership Forum

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Investors Watching Closely as NEEWS Projects Advance

Greater Springfield Reliability Project

• Received siting approval in CT and MA

• Development and Management Plans approved by CT Siting Council

• Commence substation construction in MA: Dec. 2010

• Commence overhead construction in MA: Spring 2011

• Commence overhead construction in CT: early 2012

• Project in-service: late 2013

Interstate Reliability Project

• Joint project with National Grid (NU in CT; NGrid in MA & RI)

• ISO-NE confirmed need date in August 2010

• ISO-NE PAC process in late 2010

• File siting application in CT in mid/late 2011

• Siting decision in CT in mid/late 2013

• Commence construction: late 2013/early 2014

• Project in-service: late 2015

SPRINGFIELD

HARTFORD

345-kV SubstationGeneration Station345-kV ROW

115-kV ROW

Central ConnecticutReliability Project

InterstateReliability Project

Greater SpringfieldReliability Project

Central Connecticut Reliability Project

• Awaiting completion of ISO-NE’s reassessment of need and need date

• Project milestones estimated 12 months behind IRP

Page 13: Transmission Leadership Forum

13

Northern Pass Transmission – a $1.1 Billion Capital Investment

´

• To be owned by Northern Pass Transmission LLC - NU (75%) and NSTAR (25%)

• 1,200 MW transfer capability

• Northern terminus at Des Cantons (Québec), southern terminus in Franklin (New Hampshire)

• Québec terminal will convert the power from AC to DC (rectifier)

• US terminal will convert the power from DC to AC (inverter)

• Capital cost estimate for US segment: $1.1 billion

• TSA signed on October 4 and filed with FERC in December

• Permitting process began October 14 with U.S. DOE application

• PPAs under discussion

Des Cantons

HVDC Line

HVDC Converter Station

345-kV Line

Existing Deerfield Substation

Deerfield

Franklin

Page 14: Transmission Leadership Forum

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Third Quarter 2010 Results Benefited From CL&P and PSNH Rate Decisions

• Five-year settlement approved by NHPUC on 6/28/2010

• $45.5 million increase on 7/1/10 in addition to 8/1/09 temporary increase of $25.6 million

• $2.9 million decrease on 7/1/11

• 2012 & 2013 projected increases of $9.5 million & $11.1 million

• Authorized ROE remains 9.67% (trailing 12-month distribution/generation ROE of 7.7%)

• Recovery of ice storm costs over 7 years

• Final decision 6/30/2010

• $63.4 million increase effective 7/1/10

• $38.5 million increase effective 7/1/11

• Authorized 9.4% ROE at 6/30/10 (trailing 12-month ROE of 5.4%)

• 49.2% equity in capital structure

• Deferring initial increase until 1/1/11

• Ruling on health care issue deferred to next rate case

• Capex plan approved

PSNH CL&P• Filed 7/16/2010

• Requested $28.4 million increase effective 2/1/11

• Requested ROE: 10.5% at 6/30/10 (trailing 12-month ROE of 6.6%)

• Requested capital structure: 50.7% equity; 49.3% debt

• Decoupling

• Capital investment recovery mechanism

• Recovery of past storm costs

• 2010 distribution ROE projected to be about 5%

WMECO

Page 15: Transmission Leadership Forum

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Questions

Page 16: Transmission Leadership Forum

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2006 – 2010 NU Consolidating EPS GAAP / Non-GAAP Reconciliation

2006 Actual

2007 Actual

2008 Actual

2009 Actual

2010 Projected Guidance

Distribution/Generation $0.80 $0.94 $0.96 $0.92 $1.00 – $1.10

Transmission 0.39 0.53 0.89 0.95 0.95

Total Regulated 1.19 1.47 1.85 1.87 1.95 – 2.05

NU Parent/Other (0.03) 0.04 (0.07) (0.05) (0.05)

Total Regulated and Parent $1.16 $1.51 $1.78 $1.82 $1.90 – $2.00

Competitive (0.63) 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.05

NU Consolidated Operating Results (Non GAAP) $0.53 $1.59 $1.86 $1.91 $1.95 – $2.05

CL&P Income Tax Reduction 0.48 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Gain on Sale of Competitive Generation 2.04 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Litigation Charge N/A N/A (0.19) N/A N/A

NU Consolidated GAAP $3.05 $1.59 $1.67 $1.91 $1.95 - $2.05