transition to an energy system of the future has begun what...
TRANSCRIPT
Transition to an energy system of the future has begun What will an energy system of the future look like? What would the role of fuel cells and hydrogen be in
such a system? What is the status of fuel cell &hydrogen technologies? What needs to be improved, built, developed? How do we get there from here?
Presentation Outline
Predicting the future is a risky business!
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
1943 Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM.
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
1977 Ken Olson, President of DEC Digital Equipment Corporation.
Transition has already begun...
Net Installed power generating capacity in EU 2001-2016 G
W
Transition has already begun ...
Global Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity 2001-2016
Transition has already begun ...
Global Cumulative Installed PV Capacity 2000-2015
Power generation and consumption in Germany (Dec 2016)
Power generation and consumption from renewables in U.S. (2007-2017)
usefu
l energ
y
transport
residential
industrial
heat
electricity
transport
Renew
able
energ
y:
sola
r, w
ind,
hydro
, bio
mass …
energ
y
sto
rage
ele
ctr
icity
heat
fuels
Hypothetical Future Energy System
Based on Renewable Energy
© Fraunhofer ISE
Results – System with minimal cost (118,9 billion € p.a.)
TWh
8.6
on
excess
electricity
export
electricity
5
TWh
TWh
TWh
biomass
50
TWh
electrical
load
TWh
0
GWh
246 500
TWh TWh
9.7 9.2
360 298 179
TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh 15
TWh
67
60 19
86 TWh
TWh
heat
stor-
age
TWh
1
82 334
68
electrical heat
pump
140 GWTWh
TWh
TWhTWh
246 TWh
heat
stoarge,
central
47
Mio. m³
TWh
TWh
TWh
44
TWh
TWh
TWh
TWh 0.17
solar heat
central
42
TWh
heat load
el. HP + solar
26
CHP
central
13 GW
6
343
TWh
12
solar heat
85 GW
heat load CHP
+ solar,
central
18 21
heat load
micro CHP +
solar
TWh
0 0.04
32 GW
Building energy retrofit
micro-CHP
0.05 GW
0 0.11
62 240
65
0 31 TWh
6.3
219 262
TWhsolar heat
heat
stor-
age
TWh TWh TWh
TWh TWh TWh
excess heat
0.06 0.08 0.18
TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh
GW
0.03 GW
gas heat
pump
107 GW
solar heat
16
heat load
gas-HP + solar
photovoltaic
252 GW
w ind
onshore
200 GW
battery
storage
pumped
storage pow er
plant
pow er-
to-gas
methane
storage
combined
cycle gas
turbine
GW
9 7
TWh TWh TWh52 GWh 60
88 GW 81
TWh
TWh
Reduction of heat demand
64.9% of the 2010-value
fossil
0
TWh
heat load,
total
625 TWh
187
import
electricity
0 GW
297
0.00
w ind
offshore
85 GW
hydro
pow er
5 GW
10
119 TWh TWh
TWhheat
stor-
age
TWh
21
Plan for 100% renewable energy for Germany
Power to gas technologies
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
ELECTRICITY
NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE
Electrolysis
Methanation
Fuel cells
H2 storage
Hydrogen fuel
Heating Industry
Transportation fuel Power generation
Power-to-Gas (P2G) System
100 % Renewable Energy System for Croatia
14 GW
7 GW
2,2 GW
What will be different in the Future Energy System
Energy sources Energy conversion technologies Large power plants / distributed generation Dramatically increased need for energy storage Energy quality Rational use of energy in every sector Significant increase in use of electricity Transportation & utilities merging Role of Hydrogen
usefu
l energ
y
heat
electricity
transport
Renew
able
energ
y:
sola
r, w
ind,
hydro
, bio
mass …
use
ful e
ner
gy
transport
residential
industrial
heat
electricity
transport
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy:
sola
r, w
ind
, hyd
ro, b
iom
ass
…
ener
gy
sto
rage
elec
tric
ity
heat
fuels
Hypothetical Future Energy System Based on Renewable Energy
Role of hydrogen
Energy Storage
Time (days)
Win
d p
ow
er
(MW
)
Energy storage for windpower in Germany
Compressed gas
Liquid hydrogen
Metal hydrides
Other
• Activated carbon
• Carbon nanostructures
• Glass microspheres
• Chemical hydrides
Large scale: underground - depleted
gas wells, salt caverns, aquifiers
Hydrogen can be stored
1 kg of hydrogen compressed at 200 bar takes 68 liters
350 bar 43 liters
700 bar 25 liters
Hydrogen storage underground
Source HFP SRA
Heat
Hydrogen
Biomass
Nuclear Energy Fossil Fuels
Mechanical Energy
CO2
RES
Thermolysis of water Bio-photolysis
Gasification
Chemical conversion
Photo-
electrolysis
Electricity
Electrolysis
Hydrogen production
from renewable energy sources
Technology
alkaline
PEM
SOEL
Maturity
Cost
Durability
Efficiency
Capacity factor
Scale
Cost of hydrogen
Electrolysis for large scale hydrogen generation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
U (
V)
i (mA/cm²)
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Spe
cifi
c ac
tive
are
a [m
2/(
kg/h
)]
Effi
cie
ncy
Hydrogen production rate [(kg/h)/m2]
stack efficiency
total efficiency
active area
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 5 10 15 20
Effi
cie
ncy
Specific active area [m2/(kg/h)]
stack efficiency
total efficiency
Polarization curve
Efficiency vs. H2 production rate Efficiency vs. Specific active area
Theoretical energy needed
Electrolysis for large scale hydrogen generation
Cost of Hydrogen Generated by Electrolysis
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
CH
₂ [$
/kg]
i [A/cm²]
Celz=1
Celz=2
Celz=3
Celz=4
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
CH
₂ [$
/kg]
i [A/cm²]
Celz=1
Celz=2
Celz=3
Celz=4
CF = 0.90
CF = 0.18
$/kW 500 1000 1500 2000
$/kW 500 1000 1500 2000
present
improved
present
improved
Elektrolyzers at hydrogen station in Aberdeen
Toyota Mirai – first commercial fuel cell automobile being sold since 2015
Mercedes fuel cell vehicle?
World first plug-in fuel cell vehicle
Obstacles for commercialization of fuel cell vehicles
Cost
Durability
Hydrogen availability
Needed:
<$50/kW
>5000 hours
~every 40 km
Status:
>$1000/kW
~5000 hours
> 200 refueling
stations worldwide
Performance
Durability
Cost
Membrane material
Catalyst
Catalyst layer structure
Interactions between layers
Water management
Heat transfer
…
Cell and stack design
…
System design
…
Manufacturing processes
e n
g i n
e e
r i n
g
sc
ien
ce
Tehnological challenges in fuel cell development
Membrane material
- other (non-PSA) cheaper materials
- high temperature membranes
Catalyst - reduced loadings
- binary & ternary alloys
- non precious metal catalysts
Catalyst layer & GDL structure
- improved water removal
Technological Challenges in PEM Fuel Cells
5 nm
(111)
(100)
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 ce
ll p
ote
ntia
l (V
)
0 500 1000 1500 2000
current density mA/cm²
300 kPa atm. P
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 ce
ll p
ote
ntia
l (V
)
0 500 1000 1500 2000
current density mA/cm²
300 kPa atm. P
Single Cell
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
CURRENT DENSITY (mA/cm^2)
STA
CK
VO
LTA
GE
@308kPa (EP)
@239kPa (EP)
@170kPa (EP)
Date: 8-26-98 H2/air stoic: 1.5/2.0
Cell #: XXXXXXX Temp. (deg. C): 60
Active area (cm^2): 292 H2/air humid (deg. C): 60
# of cells: 110
110-Cell Stack
ener
gy
part
ner
s
1998 1999
Fuel Cell Performance
2015
Obstacles for commercialization of fuel cell vehicles
Cost
Durability
Hydrogen availability
Needed:
<$50/kW
>5000 hours
~every 40 km
Status:
>$1000/kW
~5000 hours
> 200 refueling
stations worldwide
Obstacles for commercialization of fuel cell vehicles
Cost
Durability
Hydrogen availability
Needed:
<$50/kW
>5000 hours
~every 40 km
Status:
>$1000/kW
~5000 hours
> 200 refueling
stations worldwide
htt
p:/
/ww
w.n
etin
form
.net
/H2
/H2
Stat
ion
s/H
2St
atio
ns.
asp
x?C
on
tin
ent=
EU&
Stat
ion
ID=-
1 Hydrogen Refueling Stations in Europe
Was there diesel fuel or gasoline infrastructure in place when the first automobiles showed up?
August 1888
Bertha Benz ventures out with her two sons Eugen and Richard on the first long distance journey in automobile history. She rides in a Benz patented motor car from Mannheim to Pforzheim and back.
If Mrs. Benz waited for fuel infrastructure to be built …
Specific energy (kWh/kg)
Energy density (kWh/l)
Durability
Automobile (480 km range)
Vehicle mass
Volume of energy storage
Greenhouse gases emissions
Price
Fuel cost
Efficiency (well to wheels)
Chariging/refueling time
fuel batteries
cells
Fuel cells vs. batteries in electric automobiles
Electric vehicles with fuel cells vs. with bateries
Development and application map of automotive technologies
London, UK
Aargau, CH
London
Bolzano, IT
Oslo, N
Milano, IT
Köln, D
Hamburg, D
BMW/Siemens
Hydrogenics
Proton Motor
Fuel Cell Forklifts already commercial – Ideal Niche Market
Cellex
Other fuel cell applications: cogeneration
Micro-cogeneration: 1-2 kW for houses and apartments Mini –cogeneration: 10-50 kW for comnercial buildings Over 50,000 units installed in Japan (ene-farm) Big demonstration project in Europe (ene.field)
natural
gas
H2
heatel. energy(100)
(40)
fuel cellreformer
(50)
Fuel cells are: versatile (many possible applications)
efficient
clean (when use hydrogen as fuel)
modular
Fuel cells are close to commercialization niche market opportunities
Few technical challenges, but no show-stoppers performance
durability
cost
There is a room and need for improvements
Fuel cells using hydrogen as fuel need hydrogen
supply infrastructure
Summary about fuel cells:
FCH Hydrogen Regions
assess the business cases for fuel cell and hydrogen applications that local authorities are seeking put them directly in touch with industry players help them map their local capabilities so that they can be exploited in the future identify existing funding sources to implement future project
A new study launched in 2017
~ =
= ~
= =
DC load
AC load
= =
PV-panel
wind turbine
electrolyzer fuel cells
H2 storage
bateries
hydrogen refueling stations
hydrogen vehicles
solar-thermal
Heat load
Hydrogen energy system on any scale!
1,4 kW wind turbine on the roof
1,6 kW PVs on the roof
Connected to the lab
Fuel cell stack 1,2 kW Control unit Electrolyzer (3 kW) DC/DC converter Electronic load 1,5 kW Hydrogen storage
Hydrogen is storred in metal hydrides bottles
Fuel cell test station (1)
System integration;
components testing (4)
Electrolyzer (single cell) test
station (3)
Segmented fuel cell (4)
1
2
3
4
Laboratory for new
energy technologies
Future of hydrogen is tightly related to the pace of global
energy shift/transition to sustainable (renewable) energy
It is not simply a replacement –
transition will require a major shift in our mind sets,
priorities, culture and life style
• shift from the goals of continuous growth
to the goals of sustainable development !
• promote energy and resources conservation !
• give priorities to the protection of the environment !
• new operating system – Capitalism 3.0 !
Future of Hydrogen
There should be no competition – there should be
transition
Transition requires vision and commitment
Difficulties in transition:
renewables do not need hydrogen for initial
penetration in the energy market
difficulties in commercializing individual hydrogen
technologies
Future of Hydrogen (cont.)
Hydrogen production from fossil fuels makes sense only
in a transition period to help establish hydrogen supply
infrastructure and to help commercialize hydrogen
utilization technologies.
Outside the context of global energy shift/transition
individual hydrogen technologies may be applied only:
where they are economically competitive,
where they bring advantage which is more important
than immediate financial effect, or
as curiosity in various demonstrations.
Future of Hydrogen (cont.)
wood
coal
oil
natural gas
Industrial revolution
Automobile revolution
Information revolution
Energy revolution
Electricity revolution
Evolution of modern civilization
hydrogen
Carb
on
In
ten
sit
y o
f G
lob
al E
nerg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n
(tC
/kW
a)
Hydrogen-Fuel Cells: “OMG They Work! Now What?” Byron McCormick
Dynamics and Timing of the Hydrogen/Fuel Cell Revolution Will Be Determined by:
1. The ability to satisfy market (consumer) reactions, biases, preferences with
compelling products.
2. The ability to bring both vehicles and fueling infrastructure into the field together.
3. The ability to overcome the “valley of death,” i.e. the cumulative losses involved in
developing, bringing to market, and creating the necessary volume to yield profitable products.
4. The ability to overcome internal organizational obstacles in ongoing enterprises
based on the need to do business in the existing world while underwriting the enabling investments into the future.
CONCLUSIONS As we in the fuel cell-hydrogen community think about “where to from here?”, the development of the technology and an understanding of it’s massive benefits is just the beginning. The path forward will be highlighted by both small and audacious successes, as well as littered with failures and heartbreaks. Threatened companies and individuals will find creative ways to slow down or disrupt progress. New companies will arise, old companies will disappear. Customer-OEM-supplier hierarchies will be redefined and new products with new features and bundled attributes will appear. Fortunes will be made. Fortunes will be lost.
The introduction of hydrogen-fuel cell technology products, continued development and refinement ... will take time, money, great leadership, persistence, creativity, hopefully government support and yes, for the winners a more than a little luck and good timing. But for all of us, we have the unique opportunity to help create, shape and participate in a historic and amazing revolution, which, if we are successful will create not only a better, cleaner future for our kids and grandkids but whole new businesses and enterprises in a very different world. ... What an exciting, hopeful, frustratingly ambiguous, fun time to bring forth our very best efforts and creativity!
-Byron McCormick
