transforming energy business: a global sustainability challenge energie nederland conferentie, den...
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Transforming Energy Business: A Global Sustainability Challenge
Energie Nederland Conferentie, Den Haag, June 16, 2014
Wolf Ketter – @wolfketter
Work done with: John Collins , Micha Kahlen, Markus Peters,
Konstantina Valogianni, and many others.
Erasmus Centre for Future Energy Business
Shale gas / Fracking
Rising Demand Rising Prices
Financial Crisis
Fall in private investment, tight financing conditions
FukushimaSome countries phase out nuclear power production
By 2030, world economy set to double and energy demand to
rise by 1/3
Crimea Conflict
Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and oil
US gains more independence from foreign fossil fuels
Global Energy Markets are Facing a New Reality
Energie-wende
Transition to renewables
without losing reliability &
competitiveness!
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Electricity
• $371bn business(in the US, 2011, Source: OECD)
• one million e-vehicles on US roads by 2020(Kassakian et al., The future of the electric grid, 2011)
• $4.5tn annual digital economy spending(Gartner Group, 2013)
• $10bn cost for a major US blackout(Fox-Penner, Rethinking the Grid, 2005)
Energizer…
• Please stand up…
Energizer…
Everybody please keep standing, if you...
• Think renewable energy is essential for a sustainable future?
• Think that Dutch energy policy has to be changed to achieve a sustainable future?
• Is your business prepared for a sustainable future?• Have you or any of your friends/family used some
form of renewable energy in the last year (PV, CHP, etc.)?
• Changed ALL of your light blubs to low energy?• Drive an electric vehicle (EV)?• Know your energy usage for the year?
Klik op het pictogram als u een afbeelding wilt toevoegenUSA Northeast blackout of 2003
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Uncharted
Territory…
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Empty
your c
up!
Who needs to drive this change?
Who needs to drive this change?
Who needs to drive this change?
Who needs to drive this change?
The Virtuous Circle
Cool Science?
Sustainable Energy Challenges
=
Sustainable Energy Challenges
Sustainable Energy Challenges
??!
Wholesale Markets
Retail Market
Renewables Generation
Primary Fuels
Generation
Transmission
Customer Prosumer
Microgrids Efficient Technologie
s
Storage DSM
Info
rmat
ion
Fee
dbac
kT
rading
Primary Fuels
Generation
Customer Prosumer
Renewables Generation
Distribution
“Charging a flat rate for electricity is like charging a flat price per pound for all items in a grocery store. What would happen if
everything that came out of the cow — steak, hamburger, suet, bones, and hide — were priced at the average cost per pound?”
– Alfred Kahn
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Competitive Benchmarking
A Way of Doing Design Science for Wicked Problems
www.powertac.org
Power TAC Scenario
Power TAC 2014World Championship
5-6 May at AAMAS in Paris
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Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals vs. 2014 FinalsNew entries matter!
Strategiesmatter!
Contextmatters!
Some Anecdotal Evidence for CB’s Efficacy
JOIN IN!
Key Advantages
• Robust results• Leverage the abilities of top
research groups• Annually updated research
challenges (cf. Netflix)• Tournament vs. research mode
Annual Circle
Competitive Benchmarking
Infrastructure
Inter-firm
Research Streams
Energy Markets
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Society
Firm
Individual
Energy Finance and Trading
Revenue and Demand
Management
Energy Economics
Energy Policy
Prosumer Preferences
Prosumer Demand
Response
Energy Network Management
Energy Information
Systems
Smart Electricity Markets
Autonomous Retail Electricity Brokerage
Smart Charging
Individual Characteristics and
Preferences
EV Charging Scheduling
Energy Demand Reshaping
Peak Demand Reduction
Bottom-up Charging
Coordination
How should the EV charging be scheduled to mitigate peaks?
What are the EV customer’s preferences regarding EV charging?
How is the Smart Grid benefited from EV charging coordination?
• Research Questions
• Vision of the solution
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Results: Peak Demand Reduction
• Peak Demand Reshaping• Valley filling• This curve is steady state for
one customer with specific charging flexibility
• Overall price reduction• Direct result of peak reduction• Aggregate effect on all the
customers
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Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of Electric Vehicles I
Electric Vehicle Fleet Owner as Virtual Power Plant Aggregator• Offer mobility services to customers• Trade idle EV battery capacity on energy and reserve markets
Trade off customer mobility with balancing revenues
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Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of Electric Vehicles II
Research Type 1: Triple Bottom Line Impact of Large EV Fleets • Lower electricity prices for consumers at large (People).
• Decrease in CO2 emissions (Planet).
• Benefits for fleet owners (Profit).
Research Type 2: Carsharing Fleets with Ancillary Services• Increased revenues for carsharing operator• More balancing capacity available on the reserve
market• Balancing capacity is dynamically scalable with prices
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How can we incentivize the users to charge their EVs in a way that is efficient for the grid considering the individual
differences in behavior?
Investigating Behavior of EV usersunder Variable Pricing
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What effect do the incentives have on producer and consumer surplus?
To what extent do users adjust their charging behavior in response to variable tariffs?
• Lack of studies on the behavior of EV users • No available data on EV users and their charging behavior
• Variable pricing is not yet offered by providers
Grid to
Vehicle
Vehicle to
Grid (tbd.)
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Future Work
• Do Competitive Benchmarking!
• Platform Extensions: Negotiation, Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP), E-Vehicle Models, …
• Behavioral
• Smart Charging and VPP
Erasmus Energy Forum 2014
Themes:• EU Policy and Markets• Energy Micro Grids & New Business Models• Financing Sustainable Energy
Business Day 19 June, 2014 @Nhow Rotterdam Hotel
• Presentations• Panel Discussions• Networking• Business Award• Exclusive Diner
Science Day20 June, 2014
@Erasmus University Rotterdam
• Paper and Poster Presentations
• Networking• Science Award
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A 20TH CENTURY ECOSYSTEM
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Extraction Transport Storage
Refinery Distribution Customer
38
Afbeelding invoegen
A 21TH CENTURY ECOSYSTEM
Extraction Transport Storage
Refinery Distribution Customer/Prosumer
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”- Henry Ford
5th Avenue, New YorkApril, 1900
5th Avenue, New YorkMarch, 1913
Backup
44
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
45
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
New entries matter!
46
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
New entries matter!
Strategiesmatter!
47
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
New entries matter!
Strategiesmatter!
Contextmatters!
SUNNY PORTALhttp://www.sma.de/de/news-infos/pv-leistung-in-deutschland.html