transformative solutions: cities for people
TRANSCRIPT
TRANSFORMATIVE SOLUTIONS: CITIES FOR PEOPLE
PHOTO: JESS KRAFT/SHUTTERSTOCK
ANI DASGUPTA | GLOBAL DIRECTOR, WRI ROSS CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES
May 24, 2016
2Photo by Stephen Bugno/Flickr.
GDP per capita: $1,110 (2014)Population : 5.02 millionPoverty Rate: 25%
KOLKATA, INDIA
3Photo by: VnGrijl/Flickr
KOLKATA HAS BEEN MAKING STREETS WIDER TO ACCOMMODATE GROWING NUMBER OF CARS
4Photo by: VnGrijl/Flickr
NARROW SIDEWALKS FORCE PEOPLE ONTO STREETS, SLOWING TRAFFIC FURTHER
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CYCLING BANNED TO MAKE ROOM FOR CARS ON MAIN STREETS
6Photo by Nicolas Mirguet/Flickr
ONLY 8% PEOPLE IN KOLKATA DRIVE CARS25% WALK OR CYCLE
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CHOICES TODAY CREATE PATH DEPENDENCIES FOR DECADES TO COME
Source: IIHS,2011,h\p://iihs.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/IUC-Book.pdf
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LOW DENSITY SPRAWL AT THE URBAN FRINGE
Selected findings, Kolkata urban fringe, 1990-2014: • Share of residential area in atomistic housing: 92.1±7.4%;• Share of the built-up area in roads and boulevards: 8.4±2.2%; and• Share of roads less than 4m. wide: 66.7±13.3%
Residential development on the urban fringe of Kolkata, India1(1990-2014)
Source: Sholomo Angel
THE FUTURE IS MORE LIKE KOLKATA THAN BERLIN – PROJECTED URBAN GROWTH 2030
Note: 1692 urban agglomerations.Source: World Resources ReportData Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2014; World Bank country classification.
(N=769 cities)
WITH GROWTH MOSTLY IN AFRICA AND SOUTH ASIA 2015-2030
Source: World Resources ReportData Source: Oxford Economics
CITIES ARE GROWING MOST RAPIDLY IN LOWER- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
Note: 1692 urban agglomerationsSource: World Resources ReportData Sources: World Urbanization Prospects 2014; World Bank country classification
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COMPARISON OF CITY POPULATION AND BUDGET PER CAPITA IN CITIES IN GLOBAL SOUTH AND NORTH
Source: World Resources Report
Source: V. A. Beard, A. Mahendra, M.I. Westphal, Framing A More Equal City: Strategies for Urban Transformation, 2016.
Accra
Mombasa
Nairobi
Lagos
Durban
Johannesburg
Colombo
BangaloreSurat
Ahmedabad
Mumbai
Medellin
Bogotá
Mexico City
Porto Alegro
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Belo Horizonte
Seoul
Chengdu
Qingdao
Wuhan
Guangzhou
Tianjin
Beijing
Shanghai
Yokohama
Copenhagen
Singapore
New York0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
City population (1000s) Budget per capita (USD)
HOW WE BUILD CITIES MATTERS
Source: LSE research, drawing on data from Atlanta Regional Commission (2014), Autoritat del Transport Metropolita (Area de Barcelona) (2013), GenCat (2013), UCSB (2014), D’Onofrio (2014), based on latest data.
Atlanta’s built-up area Barcelona’s built-up area
Population: 5.26 millionTotal area: 16,605 km2
Urban area: 7692 km2
Transport emissions: 6.9 tonnes CO2 p.c.
Traffic fatalities: 564 per year
Population: 5 millionTotal area: 3263 km2
Urban area: 648 km2
Transport emissions: 1.2 tonnes CO2 p.c.
Traffic fatalities: 31 per year
ATLANTA BARCELONA
WHAT STRATEGIES WILL AVOID LOCK-IN?
Source: World Bank
Short-Term Capital Stock
Long-Term Capital Stock
Infrastructure
Land Use and Urban Form
10-15 years
15-40 years
30-75+ years
100+ years
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SO, HOW DO WE TRANSFORM FROM HERE…
Photo: Mexico City
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…TO HERE?
Photo: Andreas/Flickr
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GROWING CONSENSUS IS ON COMPACT AND CONNECTED CITIES
SCALING UP INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS IS POSSIBLE IN CITIES
Source: Dalkmann, WRI
STRATEGIES WE CHOOSE HAVE TO MAKE CITIES MORE:
PRODUCTIVE
GREEN
EQUAL
ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITYPhoto: Benoit Colin/WRI
CITIES ARE ENGINES OF GROWTH AND PROSPERITY
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute, Population Division of the United Nations; Angus Maddison via Timetrics; Global Insight; Census reports of England and Wales; Honda in Steckel & Floud,1997; Bairoch, 1975
65%global GDP growth in major cities
TRAFFIC CONGESTION HURTS PRODUCTIVITY
Sources: IBM Institute for Business Value, Smarter cities for smarter growth. Li-Zeng Mao, Hong-Ge Zhu, and Li-Ren Duan (2012) The Social Cost of Traffic Congestion and Countermeasures in Beijing. Sustainable Transportation Systems: pp. 68-76.
HIGH QUALITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT AFFECTS CITY COMPETIVENESS
Note: * Determined by composite rankings against a range of indicators. Based on ranking of 24 international cities with #24 being the top rank. For more information on these see PwC Cities of Opportunity available at http://www.pwc.com/us/en/cities-of-opportunity/
HIGH QUALITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT AFFECTS CITY PRODUCTIVITY
Note: * Determined by composite rankings against a range of indicators. Based on ranking of 24 international cities with #24 being the top rank. For more information on these see PwC Cities of Opportunity available at http://www.pwc.com/us/en/cities-of-opportunity/
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTPhoto: Benoit Colin/WRI
26Photo: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO
23% of global GHG emissions are from transport
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS ARE NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT THE TRANSFORMATION OF CITIES
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70% of GHG emissions come from cities
TRANSPORT AND BUILDINGS PROVIDE KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Photo: Jacek/Flickr Source: IPCC
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Total stock of motor cars, projections up to 2050TRACKER
Total number of cars in thousands
1 Footnote
SOURCE: Fulton/IEA 2008
In 1
,000
CLIMATE GOALS CANNOT BE REACHED ON THE CURRENT TREND TOWARD MOTORIZATION
Hidalgo and Duduta (2013)
60% OF THE 2030 GLOBAL BUILDING STOCK IS YET TO BE BUILT
Source: NASA Image. UN World Population Prospects. 2009. UNFCCC
A MORE EQUAL CITY:HIGH QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALLPhoto: Benoit Colin/WRI
RISE OF MOTORIZATION RESULTS IN UNHEALTHY, UNSAFE CITIES
• 1.3MM deaths globally from traffic incidents
• 90% of the world’s road traffic deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries
• Air pollution linked to 6.7% of deaths worldwide
Source: WHO
NONE OF THE WORLD’S TOP 50 CITIES BY POPULATION MEET WHO AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
SOURCE: Mortality data from World Health Organisation: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.wrapper.ENVHEALTH3
INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS ARE GROWING
Source: UN (2014). *CAR: Central African republic, STP: Sao Tome and Principe, DRC: Democratic Republic of Congo, Non-SSA (av) average in rest of the countries.
CITIES ARE DISCONNECTED
Source: UNEP and FIA Foundation 2013
Most people must walk to work
EMERGING GAPS IN QUALITY OF LIFE
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, Figures for 2010
COSTLY FOR WORKERS
Source: Kumar and Barrett (2008)
HIGH QUALITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT AFFECTS QUALITY OF LIFE
Note: * Determined by composite rankings against a range of indicators. Based on ranking of 24 international cities with #24 being the top rank. For more information on these see PwC Cities of Opportunity available at http://www.pwc.com/us/en/cities-of-opportunity/
COMPACT, CONNECTED GROWTH PRODUCES INTERCONNECTED OUTCOMES
THIS SHIFT IS POSSIBLE IN THE GLOBAL NORTH
Source: TfL
THIS SHIFT IS POSSIBLE IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH
Source: Bogota Como Vamos, Encuesta de Percepción Ciudadana
WE NEED TO SPEND DIFFERENTLY, NOT JUST MORE
Transport spending across the world today, WRI study
MAJORITY OF CITIES HAVE NOT MADE THIS SHIFT
THE NEW URBAN AGENDA ?
• Build on consensus, focus on solutions for more equal cities
• Prioritize actions for cities
• Transition from technical solutions to political campaigns
Photo: Benoit Colin/WRI