transformational investment in agri- food systems and ...transformational investment in agri- food...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Transformational Investment in Agri- food Systems and ...Transformational Investment in Agri- food Systems and Youth Employment Lulama Ndibongo Traub. Co-Director: Bureau of Food and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022071215/6045278e10859d19da04c477/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Transformational Investment in Agri-food Systems and Youth Employment
Lulama Ndibongo TraubCo-Director: Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Stellenbosch University
South Africa
Dr. Felix Kwame YeboahAssistant Professor, Michigan State University (MSU)
USA
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Africa in the 21st CenturyAfrica is beyond bemoaning the past for its problems. The task of
undoing that past is ours, with the support of those willing to join us in
a continental renewal. We have a new generation of leaders who
know that we must take responsibility for our own destiny,
that we will uplift ourselves only by our own efforts in partnership with
those who wish us well.-- Nelson Mandela
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Seven MegatrendsTrend #1: DemographicsTrend #2: Global food & energy pricesTrend #3: Rapid Changes in Land Distribution: Rise of
the medium-scale farmerTrend #4: Land Degradation
Trend #5: Income growth & distribution
Trend #6: Climate Change
Trend #7: Big data & Disruptive Technology
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Seven MegatrendsTrend #1: Demographics Rapid population growth Youth bulge
Trend #2: Global food & energy pricesTrend #3: Rapid Changes in Land Distribution: Rise of
the medium-scale farmerTrend #4: Land Degradation
Trend #5: Income growth & distribution
Trend #6: Climate Change
Trend #7: Big data & Disruptive Technology
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Trend #1: Rapid Population Growth
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SSA population growth projections
Source: World Bank Development Group, 2015
6.17.2 6.8
0.92
2.13.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2050 2100
Billi
ons o
f peo
ple
Rest of world Sub-Saharan Africa
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Implication?
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Regional shares in commodity consumption growth: 2016-2026
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-data-en.
8.1
10.2
16.1
13.8
9.7
2.8
2.0
19.05.7
3.5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wheat Rice Maize Othercoarsegrains
Fresh dairy Meat Fish Roots andtubers
Sugar Vegetableoil
Rest of World OECD Southeast Asia Sub-Saharan Africa China India
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SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 38 billion USD (2001-2016)
Source: ITC Trade Map
USD
Bill
ions
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Food Importsl_SSA Total Food Imports_nonSSA Total value food imports as % value of domestic agriculture production
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Can Africa Feed Itself?
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SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 38 billion USD (2001-2016)
Source: ITC Trade Map
USD
Bill
ions
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Food Importsl_SSA Total Food Imports_nonSSA Total value food imports as % value of domestic agriculture production
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Is this cause for concern?
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Food Import Growth and Employment: 2001-2010Manufacturing employment shares declined more rapidly for food import reliant countries
Source: GGDC and World Bank
Botswana Ghana
Kenya
Malawi
Mauritius
Nigeria
Senegal
Tanzania
-.04
-.02
0.02
.04.06
.09 .095 .1 .105 .11avg_g_imp_value
d_man_em_share Fitted valuesAver
age
annu
al %
cha
nge
in sh
are
of la
bor f
orce
en
gage
d in
man
ufac
turin
g
Average annual import value growth rate (%)
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Off-farm Agri-food System jobs largely in commerce and less in agro-processing
Source: Yeobah and Jayne, 2017
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Off-farm Agri-food System jobs largely in commerce and less in agro-processing
Source: Yeobah and Jayne, 2017
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Are we exporting our jobs?
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Strategies
“When the solution is simple, God is answering” – Albert Einstein
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Primary Agricultural Level:
Growth driven by efficiency
Strategies
“Implement policies that promote broad-based agricultural growth”
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Agricultural Output Growth Decomposition: 1961 - 2013
Source: Jayne, T. S., World bank data
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
SSA, Central SSA, Eastern SSA, Horn SSA, Sahel SSA, Southern SSA, Western SSA, Nigeria SSA TOTAL,without South
Africa
Irrigation Land expansion Input Intensification TFP
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Strategies
Primary Agricultural Level:“Implement policies that promote broad-based agricultural growth”
Improved efficiency innovationInnovation increase in public expenditure in R&D and extension services
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StrategiesAgriculture budget allocation by categories (%)
R&D Extension & Training
Burkina Faso2006 3.2% 9.2%2015 1.8% 6.3%
Burundi2006 27.4% 1.9%2015 2.1% 11.0%
Ghana2006 6.7% 12.0%2012 4.2% 8.3%
Kenya2007 12.7% 16.9%2015 5.9% 26.8%
Malawi2006 0.7% 3.3%2013 3.1% 3.6%
Mali2006 0.2% 3.3%2015 4.3% 1.2%
Mozambique2009 5.7% 7.6%2013 3.0% 7.6%
Senegal2010 0.2% 4.1%2015 0.9% 5.0%
Tanzania2007 6.3% 14.8%2015 7.1% 16.2%
Uganda2007 7.6% 16.1%2016 8.1% 23.0%
Benin2008 2.6% 13.2%2015 1.5% 7.3%Source: MAFAP, 2017
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StrategiesAgriculture budget allocation by programs (%)
Country Year R&D Extension & Training
Burkina Faso2006 3.2% 9.2%2015 1.8% 6.3%
Burundi2006 27.4% 1.9%2015 2.1% 11.0%
Ghana2006 6.7% 12.0%2012 4.2% 8.3%
Kenya2007 12.7% 16.9%2015 5.9% 26.8%
Malawi2006 0.7% 3.3%2013 3.1% 3.6%
Mali2006 0.2% 3.3%2015 4.3% 1.2%
Mozambique2009 5.7% 7.6%2013 3.0% 7.6%
Senegal2010 0.2% 4.1%2015 0.9% 5.0%
Tanzania2007 6.3% 14.8%2015 7.1% 16.2%
Uganda2007 7.6% 16.1%2016 8.1% 23.0%
Benin2008 2.6% 13.2%2015 1.5% 7.3%
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StrategiesAgriculture budget allocation by programs (%)
Country Year R&D Extension & Training
Burkina Faso2006 3.2% 9.2%2015 1.8% 6.3%
Burundi2006 27.4% 1.9%2015 2.1% 11.0%
Ghana2006 6.7% 12.0%2012 4.2% 8.3%
Kenya2007 12.7% 16.9%2015 5.9% 26.8%
Malawi2006 0.7% 3.3%2013 3.1% 3.6%
Mali2006 0.2% 3.3%2015 4.3% 1.2%
Mozambique2009 5.7% 7.6%2013 3.0% 7.6%
Senegal2010 0.2% 4.1%2015 0.9% 5.0%
Tanzania2007 6.3% 14.8%2015 7.1% 16.2%
Uganda2007 7.6% 16.1%2016 8.1% 23.0%
Benin2008 2.6% 13.2%2015 1.5% 7.3%
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StrategiesAgro-Processing Level:
“Develop and implement industrial policy aimed at reducing costs, improving competitiveness and diversifying the economic base”
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Strategies
• Reducing the cost of doing business– Improvements in physical infrastructure (cold chain
development)– Low-cost reliable energy
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30,000 broilers (ZAR 1 million) lost in one night!
Source: Meyer, Ferdi (2017)
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Stylized Facts of Structural Transformation
Source: World Bank Development Group, 2015
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
ag_emp_share man_emp_share service_emp_share
Mauritius Sectoral Shares of Employment: 1970 – 2010
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Ease of Doing Business Index: 2017
Source: World bank data
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mauritius Kenya Botswana SouthAfrica
Zambia Malawi Ghana Tanzania Senegal Nigeria Ethiopia
Ease of Doing Business Rank Getting Electricity
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We need to get it right
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Youth Bulge & Employment
30Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013).
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Thank You