Transformational Challengesposed by Climate Change

Dietmar DirmoserFriedrich Ebert Stiftung

Oct. 2009

The Core of the Climate Problem 1

50 Gt GHG (CO2-e) / year

Burning of fossil fuelsBiodegradationNon-CO2

10 Gt GHG / year

„SINKS“> Woods> Oceans

Emissions Growing Capacity of the Sinks declining

(every day 74.000 hectares of tropical forest destroyed)

Trends

The Core of the Climate Problem 2

50 Gt GHG / year

10 Gt GHG / year

40 Gt GHG / year

Concentration of GHG in atmosphere rises

Atmosphere is heating up

Direct relation between GHG concentration and climate (climate sensitivity)

Concentration today: 380 ppm

GHG – Concentration in the atmosphere

Av. temperature rose by 0,76ºC since ≈1850

The impact of actual emission level and GHG concentration will be felt only in 40 years

Increase of temperature until 2050 already caused by emissions already released in the atmosphere: ≈ 2,2ºC

Already caused

- Av. Temperature: >rising- Sea level: >rising-Snow cover: >melting

Danger of entering in a self accelerating circle of rising emissions and temperature (melting of

permafrost regions)

Global warming

Impacts (long)

Impacts:floods/droughts/extreme weather/destruction of ecosystems/ extinction of species/disappearance of coastal regions & islands scarcety of foodnew health problems

In short:Confusion, crisis (e.g. caused by massive migration movements)

High costs (Stern Rpt.)

Rising danger of (resource-) conflicts

Scientists agree: Limitation of global warming to 2ºC is imperative; emission reduction target derives from temperature limit.

Impacts (short)

Consequences:We have to design policies to avoid 40 Gt of CO2-eq emissions / year

= gigantic transformational challenge which implies:

• to redesign the energy system• to redesign the production system

Low carbon / zero carbon economy & society

Redesign

A new International Framework is emerging. A new International Framework is emerging. It will redefine parameters for all economies It will redefine parameters for all economies – everywhere!– everywhere!

Decisions and DeclarationsLegal Basis of Int. Climate Policy: UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol

1992 Rio Summit (Earth Summit)1994 Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) comes into effect

Yearly Conferences of the Parties (COP of UNFCCC)

continuous negotiation process since COP 1 Berlin (1995)

Decisions 1

COP 3 (1997) Kyoto: Industrialized countries sign binding commitment (Kyoto-Protocol) to reduce their GHG-emissions from 2008 – 2012 by 5% compared with 1990;ratified by 184 countries, USA and Australia refused to ratify

COP 15 (Dic. 2009) Copenhagen : Binding Int. Agreement about reduction of GHG emissions

Decisions 2

G8

G8 Gleneagles (2005): climate protection priority for the first timeG8 Heiligendamm (2007): „... consider seriously the goal of halving global emissions until 2050...“G8 Hokkaido (2008): „... to consider and adopt the goal of halving ...“G8 L´Aquila (2009), pledges to limit global warming to 2ºC and to reduce emissions by – at least - 80% until 2050 in the G8 – countries and by 50% globally

Decisions 3

Major Economies ForumG8 + China, India, Brazil, Mexico, S-Africa, S-Korea, Indonesia, Australia agree to take a binding decision about the emission-peak-year and the long-term reduction targets in Copenhagen (Dic. 2009)European UnionDic. 2008 –Policy Package: 20%-Reduction of GHG – Emissions until 2020 -- 30% if Copenhagen Summit reaches agreementImportant Business Leaders and Politicians claim radical reduction of emissions

Decisions 4

Conclusions:1) The decisions about reduction targets, taken in the

context of international negotiations, are getting continuously nearer to the scientific (IPCC) targets.

2) Whatever the outcome of COP 15 Copenhagen might be, binding emission reduction agreements and voluntary auto-limitation promises are already in place. They change the parameters for the economy and imply major transformations of the energy system and the production system as a whole.

Conclusions 1

Concxlusions 2

3) A worldwide emission trading scheme will contribute to generate strong incentives for a new Industrial Revolution. EU, USA and others are outlining the new production and energy system in their climate legislation. It will be based on renewable energy sources (photovoltaics, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydropower)

4) There are several frameworks in discussion for a Green New Deal based on a Ecological Industrial Policy which points to redesign completely the economy in terms of the material flow („through put“) of resources based on new technologies.

5) The implementation of a new industrial system will be no linear process. There will be competition and hegemony conflicts, just as in the first Industrial Revolution. There will be winners and losers. Early adaptation will produce benefits; latecomers will have to face disadvantages.

Especially small countries will have to strengthen their research and development capacity and will have to design clever adaption strategies.

Conclusions 3