transformation technologies in transportation mark r. norman, p.e. director, trb program development...
TRANSCRIPT
Transformation Technologies in Transportation
Mark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development
& Strategic Initiatives
Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo, forever changing the way we live
and work.
TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL
TECHNOLOGIES
Internet, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big data
TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:
General Examples
Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services, NextGen, unmanned aerial systems, cog in
“internet-of-things”
TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:Transportation
Key 2015 TRB Activities:Transformational
Technologies• EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation”
April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DC• Automated Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor,
MI• Impacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local
Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)• Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative
Communications Systems Deployment• UTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles,
November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DC• Urban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)
Virginia is a Leader!
• Virginia Tech & UVA• I-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)• VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund Study
Connected & Automated Vehicles:Some Points (& Counterpoints)
From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research
Projects
Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020
Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That Soon
Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change
Since the Invention of the Automobile
4
Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation
Source: James Anderson, Rand5
This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program
6
Not! Others Will be Leading the Way
7
These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful
8
Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own
9
Something everywherevs.
everything somewhere
Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious
Accidents
10
The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted
11
Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion
12
Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get
Worse
13
Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land
Use
14
These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use
15
Will Enable Data Driven Solutions
14
Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues
15
• Collection, sharing, and analysis
• Ownership• Privacy and security• Reserved spectrum
Some Things We Can Agree On!
• The truth lies somewhere in the middle
• We have more questions than answers – need research!
• Need to get started
Between Public and Private Mobility:
Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled
Services-A Policy Study-
What Are Technology-Enabled Services?
• Bike-sharing• Car-sharing• Ridesharing/Transportation
Network Companies• Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar
• Microtransit• Bridj, Leap, Chariot, Loup
What is a TNC?
• Transportation Network Company• Most common are Uber, Lyft, and
Sidecar• Allows a passenger to request and
pay for a ride via a smartphone app
Transportation Network Companies: Common
Model• Most common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehicles
• TNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fare
• Driver keeps the rest
Rise of the TNCsUber (launched in 2010)• $50B valuation• 58 countries, 300+ cities• 160,000 drivers• More Uber cars in NYC than taxis
Lyft• $2B valuation• 65 cities in the U.S.• Has not released other numbers
Sidecar• 10 cities in the U.S.
Impact on Travel Volume?• Too early to tell
• San Francisco Survey:• 1/3 of TNC users
would have taken transit
• About 8% induced travel
• Much of data is in private sector
Access & Equity: Concerns• Potential equity concerns
for:• Unbanked populations:
TNCs require a credit card to be on file.
• Those without smart phones
• Disabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.
Access & Equity: Potential Upsides
TNCs also improve access for some populations• Many paratransit users
can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times
• Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties
• Many cities/neighborhoods do not have readily available street-hail cabs
Safety : DriverBackground
Checks• Taxi industry: Fingerprint drivers• Uber and Lyft: Run checks with name,
birthday, SSN, and driver’s license number
• Which is better?• Currently a (spirited) policy debate• Little analytical evidence of the
effectiveness of either method
Safety: Information Availability• Passengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating,
car type, and license plate number• Drivers have: passenger name and photo (if
passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)
• Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger drop-off.• Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.
Safety Issues: DUIs
• Many claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIs• Correlation between arrival in a
city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40
• No rigorous analysis yet• Could be due to a combination of factors
Labor Issues• TNC employees currently classified
as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)
• Flexibility to work or not, set hours• All expenses fall to driver• Vehicle
• Phone/data plan• Health insurance• Other
Labor Issues: Rulings to Date• June 2015: California Labor
Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employee• Uber has appealed
• Other lawsuits are pending.• Employee vs.
contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCs
Shared Vehicles: What is the
Ultimate Vision?• Beyond a ride-hailing service• Changing the car ownership model• Providing critical first-mile/last-mile
access• Revolutionizing carpooling &
transit• Leveraging driverless vehicle
technologies
Challenges to Public Agencies• Technology Tsunami
• Facilitate Innovation vs. Public Safety
• Revenue Impacts• Taxi medallions• Parking• Traffic Fines
• Investments in Traditional Transit• Adapting Infrastructure & Land Use
TRB Policy Study• “Between Public and
Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”
• Summarizes state of the practice
• Recommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislators
• Release in late 2015
Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public
agencies in an age of transformational technologies?
Final Question: Transformational Technologies
& Research
Questions?
Mark [email protected]