transcanada s mainline in an evolving supply, market and infrastructure environment ·...
TRANSCRIPT
TransCanada’s Mainline in an Evolving Supply, Market and Infrastructure Environment
LDC Gas Forum – Montreal – November 13, 2009
Steve Pohlod, VP - Commercial East
2
Agenda
• Supply / Demand Outlook
• Mainline Evolution
• The History
• The Future
• Mainline Initiatives
3
Forward-Looking Information
•This presentation may contain certain information that is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties. The words "anticipate", "expect", "believe", "may", "should", "estimate", "project", "outlook", "forecast" or other similar words are used to identify such forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements in this document are intended to provide TransCanada shareholders and potential investors with information regarding TransCanada and its subsidiaries, including management’s assessment of TransCanada’s and its subsidiaries’ future financial and operations plans and outlook. Forward-looking statements in this document may include, among others, statements regarding the anticipated business prospects and financial performance of TransCanada and its subsidiaries, expectations or projections about the future, and strategies and goals for growth and expansion. All forward-looking statements reflect TransCanada’s beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the statements were made. Actual results or events may differ from those predicted in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations include, among other things, the ability of TransCanada to successfully implement its strategic initiatives and whether such strategic initiatives will yield the expected benefits, the operating performance of the Company’s pipeline and energy assets, the availability and price of energy commodities, regulatory processes and decisions, changes in environmental and other laws and regulations, competitive factors in the pipeline and energy industry sectors, construction and completion of capital projects, labour, equipment and material costs, access to capital markets, interest and currency exchange rates, technological developments and the current economic conditions in North America. By its nature, forward-looking information is subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause TransCanada's actual results and experience to differ materially from the anticipated results or expectations expressed. Additional information on these and other factors is available in the reports filed by TransCanada with Canadian securities regulators and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Readers are cautioned to not place undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is given as of the date it is expressed in this presentation or otherwise, and to not use future-oriented information or financial outlooks for anything other than their intended purpose. TransCanada undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
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Gas Pipelines• 59,000 km wholly owned• 7,800 km partially owned• 250 Bcf of regulated natural gas
storage capacity• Average volume of 15 Bcf/d
Oil Pipelines• Keystone 1.1 million Bbl/d• Expandable to 1.5 million Bbl/d
Energy• 19 power plants, 10,900 MW• Diversified portfolio, primarily
low-cost, base-load generation• 120 Bcf of non-regulated natural
gas storage capacity
TransCanada Corporation (TSX/NYSE: TRP)
Pipelines
Pipelines (Proposed)
Pipelines (In Development)
Power Facilities
Gas Storage
LNG (Proposed)
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North American Supply/Demand Balance
0102030405060708090
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gulf of Mexico + U.S. Other
WCSB
U.S. Rockies
Eastern Canada
Bcf/d
LNG
Mexico
Demand
History Forecast
U.S. Shale
BC Unconventional
6
Mainline Flows
Bcf/d
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
History Nov-08 May-09 Sep-09
7
TransCanada’s Mainline Evolution
PNGTS Expansion – 1998
• $273 million
Emerson Extension to Viking – 1960
• $37 million
Upstream Expansion for TQM (North Bay Shortcut) – 1982
• $470 million
GH-5-89 – 1991 to 1992
• $2573 million
Expansions for the Niagara System – 1980 to 1982
• $364 million
Expansion For Canadian, U.S. Midwest and U.S. Northeast Markets – 1997/98
• $897 million
Mainline Built – 1956 to1958
• $375 million
Union Gas / GLGT (TB0) – 1967
8
B.C. Production Forecast
Source: TransCanada
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/d
Conventional
Montney
Horn River
Actual Forecast
1 Bcf/d from both Montney and Horn River by 2013
9
Alberta System
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Nov-0
9
Feb-
10
May
-10
Aug-1
0
Nov-1
0
Feb-
11
May
-11
Aug-1
1
Nov-1
1
Feb-
12
May
-12
Aug-1
2
Nov-1
2
Feb-
13
May
-13
Aug-1
3
Nov-1
3
Feb-
14
May
-14
Aug-1
4
Nov-1
4
MMcf/d
Montney - Requests
Horn River - RequestsMontney - Direct Alberta Receipt Contracts
Fort Nelson / McMahon - ContractsHorn River - Contracts
Groundbirch - Contracts
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Alberta System Update
North Central Corridor• 300 km of 42-inch pipe• 26 MW of compression• Approximately $925 million• In-service 2010
Groundbirch Pipeline Project• Commitments for 1.1 Bcf/d by 2014• 77 km, 36-inch pipe• Approximately $250 million• Expected in-service Q4 2010
Horn River Pipeline Project• Commitments for 378 MMcf/d in 2013• 155 km combination of NPS 30 and
existing pipe• Approximately $340 million• Expected in-service Q2 2012
AB Jurisdiction Application Approved
• Extend Alberta system across provincial borders
• Integrated service to AB and BC customers, and Northern gas producers
Pipelines
Pipelines (Proposed)
Pipelines (In Development)
Shale Gas Basins
McMahon
Horn River
Fort Nelson
11
Northern Gas: Mackenzie Delta & Alaska
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bcf/d
Alaska
Mackenzie Delta
12
Mackenzie Gas Project• Joint Review Panel report – Dec
2009• NEB Reasons for Decision on
MGP application – Sept 2010 • Financial restructuring
discussions on-going
Alaska Pipeline Project• AGIA license issued Dec 2008
• June 2009 - TransCanada and ExxonMobil joint venture
• All AGIA commitments remain with TransCanada
• Next step is open season mid-2010
Northern Projects:Recent Developments
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Rockies Supply
23456789
101112
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
History Sept-09 TSO Update
Bcf/d
14
Supply / Throughput Initiatives:Rockies Gas – New Capacity Options
Opal
Malin
Wamsutter
Cheyenne
Dawn
Emerson
Chicago
Stanfield
Ruby (EP)1.2 Bcf/d
Harper
Bison (NBPL)0.5 Bcf/d
REX (JV)1.8 Bcf/d
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Rockies East Projects
Bison• 302 mile natural gas pipeline• 477 MMcf/d contracted• Initial capacity 400 MMcf/d to
500 MMcf/d• Proposed in-service date
November 2010• Future expansion up to 1.0 Bcf/d
and extension potential
Bison Extension Phase l
16
Lower 48 Shale Gas Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/d
Actual Forecast
Barnett
Woodford/Caney
Fayetteville
Haynesville
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Mid-Continent Shales – Barnett, Woodford/Caney, Bossier, Fayetteville & Haynesville
Woodford/CaneyShale
HaynesvilleShale
BossierShale
BarnettShale
FayettevilleShale
Dawn
18
Marcellus Shale Gas Production
0
1
2
3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/d
Actual Forecast
19
Mid-Continent Shales – Marcellus
NS
VT
MA
NJ
KYIL
MO
IA
WI
ON
AR
TN
NC
VA
WV
DEMD
PA
NY
OHIN
MI
SC
GAALMS
CT
DC
KS
MB
ME
MN
NB
ND
NE
NH
OK
PE
QC
RI
SD
SK
TX
MarcellusShale
Extent ofDevonian
Shale
Dawn
20
Long Haul Firm Contracts
Mainline Long Haul Contracts (at Nov.1)
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GJ/Day
FST FT LTWFS
21
Short Haul Firm Contracts
Mainline Short Haul Contracts (at Nov.1)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GJ/Day
FT-NR FT STS FT-SN
22
Discretionary Service Use Evolution
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Average TJ/d Total Discretionary Volumes
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Mainline Eastern Zone Tolls
Actual Forecast
1.00
2.00
200020
01
2002
200320
04
2005
200620
07
2008
200920
10
2011
201220
13
2014
201520
16
2017
201820
19
2020
$Cdn/GJ (Nominal)
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Mainline Initiatives
• On-going Priorities
• Supply connection / Increasing Throughput
• Cost Reduction
• Change is Required
• Rate Design Review and Evolution
• Service Evolution
• Business Model Alternatives
Thank you.
Questions / Comments?