Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance

Japan

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JAPA

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S-Deposition

RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

•Need to assess inter-model variability.•The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in East Asia

How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?

Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.

Participant(s) Organization Model name Model type

Main model focus

S.-B. Kim,T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma 

Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)

YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.-

Sulfur Acid Dep. Model)

3D Eulerian

Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions

H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa 

CRIEPI (Japan) CRIEPI trajectory model

Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation  

H. Hayami, O. Hertel,Y. Ichikawa 

CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark)

ACDEP ASIA Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation

I. Uno,E.S. Jang 

Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan)

RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model

3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies

Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami

Osaka Prefecture University (Japan)

OPU-Model (Osaka

Prefecture Univ.)

3D Eulerian

Long-term deposition

S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

STEM 3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term studies

G. Calori, G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

ATMOS-2 Lagrangian

multi-layer

Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships.

M. Engardt Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

MATCH 3D Eulerian

Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances

SO2 concentrations - 11-20 January

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SO4 concentrations - 11-20 January

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SO4 wet depositions - 11-20 January

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Comparison with monitoring data for the 11-20 January period.

 

Monitoring station location and emission distribution at Kanghwa (left) and Tsushima (right)

Spatial resolution is 1 deg on upper and 30 sec on bottom

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Model

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SO2 cSO4 wetSO4

Bias (abs [obs.-calc.]/calc.*100) of model calculated quantities for the month of January. (Task A)

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ha (K

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Taich

ung

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g (C)

Jinan

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Beijin

g (C)

Nangok

u (J

)

Otobe

(J)

Amam

i (J)

Kashim

a (J

)

Yangya

ng (K

)

Tokor

o (J)

Hachij

o (J)

Oki (J

)

Tsus

hima

(J)

Fukue

(J)

Miya

ko (J

)

Taito

ng (T

)

Site

Cor

rela

tion

Coe

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s(R

) Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model 5

Model 6

Model 7

Model 8

mean

Correlation between observed and predicted data by monitoring site. (Task A)

Example of 10 day- averaged surface SO2 concentrations (January 1-10) calculated by the participating models.(Task A)

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C China E China S Korea C Japan

Regionl

Model 1

Model 2

Model 5

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Model 8

Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task

A)

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1-A 1-B 2-A 2-B 6-A 6-B

Model - Task

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Total sulfur depositions for both months (January and May together) and contributions due to each process over

selected target regions. (Left: S. Korea; Right Central China)

Upper panels: results from Task B. Lower panels: Task A vs. Task B.

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships

Receptor 4 - Komae (Japan)

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NW ASIA

SE ASIA

TAIWAN

S CHINA

C-E CHINA

NE CHINA

N & S KOREA

JAPAN

Inter-model VariabilityReceptor 16 - Nanjing (China)

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Receptor 17 - Taichung (Taiwan)

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January - 1000 m sigma

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May - 1000 m sigma

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January - 3000 m sigma

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May - 3000 m sigma

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norm .freq.

5 day iso-sigma back-trajectories arriving in Taichung Shown are the frequency distribution of all 3-hour end points

over the entire month of trajectories originated at the receptor.

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships

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Contribution (%)

Variability

(%

)

INDI -> LAOS

VOLC -> INDO

KORN -> KORS

CHIN -> J APA

THAI -> CAMB

INDI -> BANG

INDI -> MYAN

FSU -> MONGCHIN -> CAMB

INDI -> BHUT

INDI -> INDI

CHIN -> CAMB

Interannual Variability (10-yrs)

Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability

on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than

Changes in Emissions!China

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Year

Japan

-30%-20%-10%

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85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Year

Is there climate feedback link?

Regional Air Pollution Issues

• Long-range transport: Northern China Korea Japan North America (?!)

• Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation--compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications

• Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters

• Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NOx

with the involvement of CO and CH4

• Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg

Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance

Tracey’s Work

Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance

% of Total Deposition as Nitrate

Tracey’s Work

Observed pH

S/Ca>1

Deposition of Dust Plays an Important Role in Neutralizing Acid Deposition

The CFORS forecast (upper left) of the two dust systems are shown above. The dust plume (pink) represents the region with dust concentrations greater than 200 grams/m3. White indicates clouds. The SeaWifs satellite image (upper right) also clearly shows the accumulation of dust spiraling into the Low Pressure center. Also note the strong outflow of dust in the warm sector “ahead” of the front over the Japan Sea. The two systems are clearly seen in the satellite derived TOMS-AI (aerosol index) (lower right). The dust event is clearly seen in the China SEPA air pollution monitoring network. Lower left hand panel shows extremely large ground level concentrations (http://www.ess.uci.edu/~oliver/tracep/airqual/index.html). The sandstorm and sand-drifting weather, which swept across most parts of China caused severe visibility and air quality problems

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20010409/395181.htm

NASA-Seawifs

ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA)

Spring 2001 Experiments

NASA/GTE DC-8

Dust (Pink) and Sulfate Dust and CO

The Long Range Transport of Dust is a Well Recognized Phenomena in East Asia---

Pollution is Transported the Same Way!!

April 08, 2001

AOD (dust=color, BC+OC=line)

AOD SO4

A comparison between the CFORS predictions and that observed by satellite (TOMS-AI)

http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/Perfect_Storm_Pres.html

The Changing Air Quality of the Northern Hemisphere

Pacific Basin

• Pressures are from the Pacific Rim Countries and beyond.

• Changing patterns and growth rates of energy use and resulting emissions are the primary forcing factors -- with East and West following different paths.

• Impacts are local, regional (East and West), basin-wide, and global.

• Complexities in transport and chemistry over the Pacific greatly challenge present modeling and measurement efforts.

UNEXPECTED DECREASES IN CHINA’S SULFUR EMISSIONS

New Two-Zone Control Policy

SEPA

BAU – ca 1990’s

Actual

The importance of black carbon has only recently been

recognized

(Hansen et al., PNAS, 2001)

Linkages of Air Pollution to Climate Change

O3 (0.3+0.1) Black (0.8)Carbon

  China Emissions in 20001 (Tg)

in

China’s emissions (2000 – 1995) (Tg)

Total global fossil fuel emission ca~1995 (Tg)

Change in China’s emissions as

% of global total anthropogenic fuel combustion (%)

Temp. Response functionT/Emissions(K/Tg) 2,4

Estimated Change in global temperatures due to changes in China’s emissions between 1995 and 2000(K) 3,4

SO2 20.8 -4.95 134 -3.7% -8.2 10-3 +0.04

BC 0.91 -0.43 5.1 -8.4% 6.5 10-2 -0.026

CO2 3,218 -109 29,700 -0.037% 3.0 10-5 -0.003

CH4 33.4 +1.16 360 +0.32% 7.5 10-4 +0.001

          Net change: = +0.012

Air Pollution and Climate Issues are Intimately Linked

Republic of Korea

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L o n

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Total S depositions: 1975-2000 % change

Em issions as of 7.3.2000

Change in Sulfur Deposition between 1975 and 2000.

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P.R. China

India

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Malaysia

Pakistan

Republic of Korea

Singapore

Sea lanes

Japan

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1975 1980

Volcanoes Sea lanes Taiwan

Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore

Indonesia P.R. Korea Rep. of Korea

Japan P.R. China

The Role of Chemical Weather Forecasting is of Growing Importance

• Field Campaign Planning• Field Observation Design• Traffic (Aviation)

Management• Visibility• Environmental Management• Health Alerts

Flight pathSoundingheight

obs. point

Annual averaged Surface level SO4

2-

Simulated Kosa Onset April 98

Considerations for Future MICS Studies

• Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models?

• Nitrate & longer-term have been identified as important next steps

• I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, AOD, and even extending to ozone.

Thank You !!!

 

South Korea

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Annual Sulfur Deposition

Comparison of TOMS-AI and Surface ObsComparison of TOMS-AI and Surface Obs