training workshop on green jobs for south african trade unions 20 november 2012 parktonian hotel,...

Training Workshop on Green Jobs for South African Trade Unions20 November 2012

Parktonian Hotel, Johannesburg

• Introduction

• Purpose of the report

• Methodology

• Green jobs estimates

• Key success factors

• Key messages

Outline of presentation

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• The greening of an economy can present substantial opportunities for the creation of sustainable employment through the introduction of new activities in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors.

• A green economic revolution worldwide, re-orienting national development trajectories.

• South Africa’s economy is one of the most carbon intensive globally.

• Environmental sustainability and economic progress are not opposing forces.

Introduction

Rank Country Total emissions (million t)

Emissions (t/capita)

Emissions (kg/USD GDP)

1 China 6 877.2 5.14 0.552 United States 5 195.0 16.90 0.463 European Union – 27 3 576.8 7.15 0.304 India 1 585.8 1.37 0.355 Russia 1 532.6 10.80 1.00… 14 South Africa 369.4 7.49 0.7015 Brazil 337.8 1.74 0.20

3Source: Authors, compiled from IEA data

Introduction

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Transition

Limited window of opportunity – concerted effort needed!

• Considering the fast growing interest in the green economy and divergent views on employment potential, attempt to bring forth a degree of consolidation and comparability.

• Estimate the national direct employment potential per green area/technology covered (26 in total).

• Contribute to debate, not only on renewable energy generation, but also wider green economy issues.

• Provide useful input for prioritisation processes at the national, industry and institutional levels.

• Assist a broad spectrum of stakeholders in the associated strategic planning process.

• Methodology permits flexibility and review as information evolves.

Purpose of the report

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Methodology:Process

• Initial scoping to identify technology universe.

• Selection in terms of applicability to SA context and availability of information (narrowed down to 26 segments/technologies).

• Consultation of wide range of publications and industry specific information, locally and globally.

• Interaction with local and foreign experts and industry players.

• Existing studies and models (mainly pertaining to North America and Europe) largely based on highly disaggregated sectoral data – not the case in SA.

• Research team had to develop a suitable employment estimation methodology.

• Standard layout was adopted to facilitate consultation and comparability.

• Draft report went through a substantial review by local and foreign experts, before the report was finalised.

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Methodology:Coverage

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Energy generation

Wind power

Solar power Marine power

Bio-fuelsPV CSP

Waste-to-energyLandfill

gasBiomass

combustionAnaerobic digestion

Pyrolysis/gasification Cogeneration

Hydro-power

Small

Large

Energy and resource efficiency

TransportBRT

Green buildings

Insulation, lighting and windows

Solar water heaters

Rainwater harvesting

Industrial efficiencies

Mechanical insulation

Industrial motors

Emissions and pollution mitigation

Carbon capture and

storage

RecyclingPollution controlAir pollution control

equipmentElectrical vehicles

Clean stoves Water treatment

Natural resource management

Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration

Soil and land management

Methodology:Process









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Methodology:Estimation

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Short term(2011-12)

Medium term (2013-17)

Long term (2018-25)

Building, construction and installationOperations and maintenance

ManufacturingEmployment estimates

Results: • Direct jobs in formal economy (i.e. multiplier effects not taken into account).• Net figures (i.e. job losses due to greening of economy were subtracted).• Full-time equivalent.• Averaged per time period to smooth significant annual fluctuations.

Assumptions:• Build programmes defined for each area/technology (local + exports).• Appropriate policies and regulations in place.• Where appropriate, resource inputs allocated to a specific technology to avoid

double counting.• Various types of employment ratios utilised: output-, input- or financial related.

Green jobs estimates: Assumed resource allocation

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Waste source

Municipal solid waste

Wood

Sewerage

Green municipal solid waste

Industrial waste – food processors

Industrial waste – other

Pyrolysis

Biomass combustion

Recycling

Landfill

Anaerobic digestion

Co-generation

Waste treatment technology

Flow assumed in the report

Potential green flow

Potential non-green flow

Non-polluting waste (no energy potential)

Green jobs estimates: Hypothetical build programme and assumptions

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CSP plants completed: SA

CSP plants completed: RoA

Construction: SA

Construction: RoA

O&M: SA O&M: RoA Manufacturing: SA

Manufacturing: RoA

Number of MW per year 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75Number of workers per MW 21.6 2.16 0.54 0.05 14.4 14.4Construction period years 2 2 2 2 Year No. of MW No. of MW No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 02012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Average short term 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013 0 58 0 0 0 38 02014 100 132 0 54 0 88 02015 130 173 1 124 0 115 102016 170 25 225 4 216 1 150 292017 220 50 294 6 335 3 196 38Average medium term 176 2 146 1 117 15

2018 290 50 386 7 492 3 257 482019 380 75 501 10 697 4 334 672020 490 100 651 13 962 5 434 862021 640 125 829 16 1308 7 553 1062022 800 150 922 17 1740 8 614 1152023 800 150 922 18 2172 8 614 1192024 800 160 922 21 2604 9 614 1382025 800 200 922 23 3036 11 614 1542026 800 200

Average long term 757 16 1626 7 504 104

Methodology:Process









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Methodology:Standardised section layout

• Historical progress and maturity of the technology/area.

• Advantages and disadvantage associated with the technology/area.

• Overview of global usage, including

• Some of the major international and local players.

• The applicability of the technology to South Africa and the rest of the African continent.

• Analysis of the potential job creation.

• Adaption of the generic methodology

• Results

• Ease of introduction of the technology

• Implementation challenges

• Policy implications

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Green jobs estimates:Overall direct potential

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Short term

Medium term

Long term

Total 98 000 255 000 462 000Energy generation 13 565 57 142 130 023

% of total 13.8% 22.4% 28.1%Energy and

resource efficiency 31 569 70 193 67 979

% of total 32.2% 27.5% 14.7%Emissions and

pollution control 8 434 13 189 31 641

% of total 8.6% 5.2% 6.8%Natural resource

management 44 512 114 842 232 926

% of total 45.4% 45.0% 50.4%

Green jobs estimates: Building, construction and installation

• Employment momentum re. building, construction and installation activities peaks in the medium term, largely propelled by mass transportation infrastructure, stabilising thereafter as green building methods become progressively entrenched.

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Green jobs estimates:Operations and maintenance

• The largest employment gains are likely to be associated with O&M activities, particularly those involved in the various natural resource management initiatives.

• O&M jobs linked to renewable energy generation plants also substantial.

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Green jobs estimates:Manufacturing

• Potential for localisation of manufacturing and associated employment expands as projects related to a greening economy are progressively commissioned.

• Competitiveness gains derived over time due to economies of scale as markets develop.

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Green jobs estimates: Energy generation

Broad ‘green economy’ category Segment Technology/product

Total net direct employment

potential in the long-term

Net direct manufacturing

employment potential in the long-term


potential (ST, MT, LT)


employment potential (ST, MT, LT)

ENERGY GENERATION

Renewable (non-fuel) electricity

Wind powerOnshore wind power

5 156 2 105 VL, L, M L, M, HOffshore wind power

Solar powerConcentrated solar power 3 014 608 N, VL, M N, VL, M

Photovoltaic power 13 541 8 463 M, H, H H, VH, VH

Marine power Marine power 197 0 N, N, VL N, N, N

Hydro powerMicro-/small-hydro power 272 111 VL, VL, VL VL, M, VL

Large hydro power 100 0 VL, VL, VL N, N, N

Fuel-based renewable electricity

Waste-to-energy

Landfills 1 178 180 VL, VL, L VL, VL, L

Biomass combustion 37 270 154 VL, H, VH VL, VL, L

Anaerobic digestion 1 429 591 VL, VL, L VL, L, M

Pyrolysis/Gasification 4 348 2 663 VL, L, M VL, H, H

Co-generation 10 789 1 050 L, M, H M, H, H

Liquid fuels Bio-fuelsBio-ethanol

52 729 6 641 M, H, VH L, H, VHBio-diesel

Total energy generation employment 130 023 22 566

VH = very high (total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing potential > 3 000 direct jobs)H = high (total employment potential > 8 000, but 20 000; manufacturing potential > 1 000 but 3 000)M = medium (total employment potential > 3 000, but 8 000; manufacturing potential > 500 but 1 000)L = low (total employment potential > 1 000, but 3 000; manufacturing potential > 150, but 500) VL = very low (total employment potential > 0, but 1 000; manufacturing potential > 0, but 150) N = negligible/none (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing potential = 0)

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Green jobs estimates: Evolution of renewable energy generation

• Renewable energy expansion path (bearing in mind that cost issues are not addressed) exceeds that of IRP 2010-2030 by a significant margin (i.e. 8 720MW), largely due to higher deemed CSP potential and inclusion of waste-to-energy (particularly cogeneration).

• Renewable energy mix also considerably different and more labour intensive.

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Green jobs estimates:Evolution of renewable energy mix

• Wind and cogeneration are dominant in the short term, although solar power (initially PV, but later also CSP) brings some balance in the long term.

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Green jobs estimates: Energy & resource efficiency / Emissions & pollution mitigation

Broad ‘green economy’ category Segment Technology/product


potential in the long-term







ENERGY & RESOURCE EFFICIENCY

Green buildings

Insulation, lighting, windows 7 340 838 L, M, M L, M, M

Solar water heaters 17 621 1 225 L, H, H L, M, H

Rain water harvesting 1 275 181 VL, VL, L VL, VL, L

Transportation Bus Rapid Transport 41 642 350 VH, VH, VH H, M, L

IndustrialEnergy efficient motors -566 4 VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL

Mechanical insulation 666 89 VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL

Total energy efficiency employment 67 977 2 686


EMISSIONS & POLLUTION MITIGATION

Pollution control

Air pollution control 900 166 N, VL, VL N, L, L

Electrical vehicles 11 428 10 642 VL, L, H N, H, VH

Clean stoves 2 783 973 VL, VL, L VL, L, M

Acid mine water treatment 361 0 VL, VL, VL N, N, N

Carbon Capture and Storage 251 0 N, VL, VL N, N, N

Recycling 15 918 9 016 M, H, H H, VH, VH

Total emissions and pollution mitigation employment 31 641 20 797

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Green jobs estimates: Natural resource management

Broad ‘green economy’ category Segment Technology/productTotal net direct

employment potential in the

long-term







NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Conservation & eco-system

restoration 121 553 0 H, VH, VH N, N, N

Soil & land management 111 373 0 VH, VH, VH N, N, N

Total natural resource management employment 232 926 0


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Key success factors

Conducive regulatory environment

Securing resources

Generic issues Localisation

Developing skills

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Taking the lead, growing demand

Success factors

> 460 000 direct jobs

• Policy framework, pace of regulatory revision, amendment and development.

• Stakeholder communication and co-ordination.

• Simplification and streamlining.

• Public sector playing an exemplary role.

• Gradual, effective transformation of production and consumption patterns.

• Commitment, awareness and readiness by the private, public and household sectors.

• Institutional capabilities.

• Funding availability, incentives, mechanisms.

• Regional coordination.

• Integration and coordination.

• Local procurement and export market penetration to develop critical mass.

• Availability of competitively priced inputs and services.

• National industrialisation strategies.

• R&D capabilities and technology transfer.

• Address shortages of skills in certain areas.

• Re-skilling and development of specific skills capabilities.

• Availability, accessibility, quality, sustainability and pricing of required resources.

Key messages

• The greening of the SA economy can result in substantial net direct employment creation within the formal sectors.

• Jobs estimates escalate once multiplier effects are taken into account, whilst informal employment potential is considerable.

• Appropriate and conducive policy and regulatory environment, accompanied by effective public sector coordination, are crucial for the successful roll-out of the various green areas/technologies.

• The public sector should take the lead in driving the use of certain green technologies.

• Institutional capacity development is a prerequisite, especially at the local government level due to its crucial roll in a future greening of the SA economy.

• Long term industrialisation and localisation strategies are required, and need to be communicated clearly.

• Regional cooperation is deemed key for market development and sourcing of feedstock.

• Need to act without delay as the window of opportunity is limited.

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IDC19 Fredman DriveSandown

PO Box 784055Sandton2146South Africa

Telephone +27 (0)11 269 3000Facsimile +27 (0)11 269 2116www.idc.co.za

DBSAHeadway Hill1258 Lever Road, Midrand

PO Box 1234Halfway House1685South Africa

Telephone +27 (0)11 313 3911Facsimile +27(0)11 313 3086www.dbsa.org

TIPS826 Government RoadArcadia, Pretoria

PO Box 11214Hatfield0028South Africa

Telephone +27 (0)12 431 7900Facsimile +27 (0)12 431 7910www.tips.org.za

Thank you

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training workshop on green jobs for south african trade unions 20 november 2012 parktonian hotel,...

Documents

report methodology green

johannesburg slide

green economic revolution

green areatechnology

iea data slide

introduction purpose

wider green economy

south africas economy