traffic safety principles
TRANSCRIPT
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DELHI
Dinesh Mohan
Traffic Safety Principles
“Action in the absence of
knowledge can be dangerous
and worse than no action at all”
M. K. Gandhi
Magnitude of the problem in India
~4 %
~6 %
~8 %
> 400 persons killed every day ~ 1,200 permanently disabled every day ~ 8,000 hospitalised everyday
NO RELIABLE OFFICIAL STATISTICS AVAILABLE ON:
FATALITIES BY ROAD USER TYPE
VEHICLES INVOLVED
NUMBER DISABLED
NUMBER INJURED
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
100 1,000 10,000
Esm
ate
do
fro
adt
raff
icd
eat
hs
pe
r1
00
,00
0p
op
ula
on
PercapitaincomeUS$(2010)
IRAN
USA
JAPAN
MEXICOEGYPT
THAILAND
FATALITIES/100,000 PERSONSWHO ESTIMATES 2013
INDIA
Philosophy and science of safety changed
dramatically ~50 years ago
OLD IDEAS
Road Vehicle
Driver
3/4/5 E’s
85% of accidents are caused by the driver
NO DATA NEEDED!
Just Educate & Punish Them
6
Paradigm Shift
Traffic Death Rates in OECD countries
Source: Kavi Bhalla
0
50
100
150
200
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300
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
TOTA
L V
EHIC
LES
REG
ISTE
RED
, MIL
LIO
NS
FATA
LITI
ES, N
UM
BER
YEAR
Number fatalities
Estimated No. of Vehicles(Millions)
History Lesson - USA
First
committees
NHTSA
Education, licensing &
strict finesVehicle + Road Design
+Focused enforcement
No Nation Successful Without Independent Road Safety Agency
Staffed by Scientists With Permanent Jobs
Committees & Advisory Councils Unsucceessful
Deaths
Vehicles
The reduction in accidents in all these modes after 1965 is probably not due to any single factor in isolation
Due to a wide variety of improvements: design of vehicles/technology operating environment and infrastructure enforcement of safety regulations and
standards
What changed 1900-1960 and 1960-2000?
Change in Philosophy
A move from focus on blaming people, hectoring people, ‘educating’ them, punishing them
Treating people as ‘normal’ & focusing on the system
Finding one
person at fault,
punishing,
education
Finding all
reasons,
improving
whole system
Basic systems approach/Haddon’s matrix
Space
Time
Human (Victim)
Products Environ-
ment
Crash Prevention
Role of the human
beings in preventing
the event
Role of the
product in
preventing the
event
Role of laws,
policing, &
environment in
preventing the
event
Injury Prevention during crash
Role, changes in
victim in minimizing
injury during crash
Design changes in
product to
minimize injury
during crash
Changes in laws,
policing, &
environment
Injury Management after crash
Management of
victim to minimize
effect of injury
Design changes in
product to
minimize after
effects
Societal and
environmental
arrangements
Basic systems approach/Haddon’s matrix
Changes in road infrastructure
What to do with people
Changes in vehicle designHow to prevent
accidents?
Policies
Standards
Policing
Institutions
Driver training, public education, fining drivers
disobeying traffic rules, especially speeding,
zig-zag driving, checking alcohol
Better headlights, High rear brake lights
Reflectors on trucks, buses, tractors, NMTVs
Speed governors, Electronic stability control
Automatic emergency braking
ABS and combined breaks on 2-wheelers
Daytime headlights on 2-wheelrs
Provision of footpaths>2m, Bicycle lanes
Traffic calming, Use of roundabouts, Small
blocks in cities.
No raised medians on divided highways,
Scientific signage and road markings visible at
night, Red light cameras, Speed cameras, High
illumination at junctions
Basic systems approach/Haddon’s matrix
Changes in road infrastructure
What to do with people
Changes in vehicle designHow to preventinjuries during an accident?
Policies
Standards
Policing
Institutions
Use of helmets and seat belts
Crashworthiness standards (airbags, etc)
No children in laps, only in back seat/childseats
No pointed or sharp objects inside or outside
No sharp objects/railings/fences on roads
No barbed wire
No trees greater than 10cm dia around high
speed roads
No poles, signs etc on run off area on highways
Basic systems approach/Haddon’s matrix
Changes in road infrastructure
What to do with people
Changes in vehicle design
What to do after the
accident is over?
Policies
Standards
Policing
Institutions
First aid, safe extrication and transfer to
hospital, rehabilitation
No fuel leakage, minimise probability of fire
Information for help and and systems for timely
removal of vehicles
1. Driver training
2. Public education
3. Fining drivers
disobeying traffic
rules, especially
speeding, zig-
zag driving
4. Checking alcohol
5. Use of helmets
and seat belts
Better headlights, High rear brake lights
Reflectors on trucks, buses, tractors, NMTVs
Speed governors, Electronic stability control
Automatic emergency braking
ABS and combined breaks on 2-wheelers
Daytime headlights on 2-wheelrs
Provision of footpaths>2m, Bicycle lanes
Traffic calming, Use of roundabouts, Small blocks in cities.
No raised medians on divided highways, Scientific signage
and road markings visible at night, Red light cameras, Speed
cameras, High illumination at junctions
Crashworthiness standards (airbags, etc)
No children in laps, only in back seat/childseats
No pointed or sharp objects inside or outside
No sharp objects/railings/fences on roads
No barbed wire
No trees greater than 10cm dia around high speed roads
No poles, signs etc on run off area on highways
No fuel leakage, minimise probability of fire
Information for help and and systems for timely removal of
vehicles
OLD
SCIENTIFIC APPROACH
279…Rash and negligent
driving
304…Culpable homicide not
amounting to murder
Car going over the speed
Limit
Motorcyclist not wearing
helmet dies
Bright light at junction
Roundabout
Speed camera
Police presence
Helmet compulsory
SUMMARIES OF STUDIES
There is no clearly proven relationship between
knowledge and attitude on the one hand and
behaviour on the other hand – OECD 1994
Education programs by themselves usually are
insufficient to change behaviour. They may
increase knowledge, but increased knowledge
rarely results in an appropriate behaviour change –
O’Neill 2001
Contrary to the view that education cannot do any
harm some of these programs have been shown to
make matters worse – Sandels 1978
Combination of enforcement and penalties prevent
the violation of traffic regulations and increase road
safety. However, the most common type of penalty at
the present time, a fine, has been found to have little
effect
When subjective probability of detection is
sufficiently high, road users avoid violating a
regulation
Making penalties heavier, as an isolated measure,
has been found to have little extra effect
SWOV Fact sheet...Penalties in traffic. SWOV (Institute for Road Safety Research),
Leidschendam, The Netherlands,January 2009
Effectiveness of fines as deterrents
Facts from successful countries
• Maximum helmet and seatbelt use achieved with – Education: 10-20%
– Scientific enforcement 80-95%
• Maximum reduction in deaths from– Vehicle safety standards
– Traffic calming
– Provision of facilities for pedestrians and bicyclists
– Use of helmets and daytime running lights
– Strict speed control
– Alcohol checking
20
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000B
asel
ine
He
lme
t
Sea
tbel
t
Spe
ed
Co
ntro
l
Dri
nk D
rivi
ng
Ve
h D
esi
gn:O
ccu
pan
t
Veh
Des
ign
:Pe
de
stri
an
Traf
fic
De
ath
s
China
0
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4000
6000
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12000
14000
16000
Ba
selin
e
Hel
met
Se
atb
elt
Sp
eed
Co
ntr
ol
Dri
nk
Dri
vin
g
Veh
Des
ign
:Occ
upa
nt
Ve
h D
esi
gn:P
ede
stri
an
Traf
fic
De
ath
s
Ethiopia
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Ba
selin
e
Hel
met
Se
atb
elt
Sp
eed
Co
ntr
ol
Dri
nk
Dri
vin
g
Veh
Des
ign
:Occ
upa
nt
Ve
h D
esi
gn:P
ede
stri
an
Traf
fic
De
ath
s
Iran
Other
Occupant
Motorcyclist
Bicyclist
Pedestrian
Sample Results
• Interventions for speed control are most
important
• The relative importance of interventions varies
by country
Source Kavi Bhalla
The Zero VisionOctober 1997, Road Traffic Safety Bill, Swedish Parliament
“The scientific basis of the zero vision differs from the usual approach to safety in human-machine systems: designing a system to minimize the number of events that cause injury. Instead, the zero vision is based on the notion of "allowing" these incidents to occur, but at a level of violence that does not threaten life or long-term health”
“In the zero vision, the entire transport system must be designed to accommodate the individual who has the worst protection and the lowest tolerance of violence. No event must be allowed to generate a level of violence that is so high that it represents an unacceptable loss of health for that vulnerable individual.”
“The responsibility for every death or loss of health in the road transport system rests with the person responsible for the design of that system. This is the ethical basis for realizing the zero vision.”
CLAES TINGVALL
Traffic fatality rates in cities with populations of at least one million, 2006 and 2016
Source: NCRB Increase 2-5 times in many cities
Fatalities per million persons – states and UT
“Culture” does not seem to be a determining factor
Truck7%
Bus1%Car
4%
TSR3%
MTW41%
Cycle12%
Pedestrians32%
Vadodara
Truck6%
Bus3%
Car2%
TSR2%
MTW37%
Cycle9%
Pedestrians41%
Agra
Pedestrian79%
Bicycle7%
Motorizedtwo-wheeler
7%
3-wheelerscooter
rickshaw4%
Car2%
Bus0%
Truck1%
Mumbai(1996-1997)
Assumption - occupants per vehicle per dayMTW-4 TSR-60 Car-7
Mohan, D, Tiwari, G, Mukherjee, S 2013
“Illegal” speed humps on roads through
villages in India – construction forced by
villagers
Safety without increase in per capita
income or “education”
Pedestrian crossings raised 10 cm
above road level
“speed humps
were associated
with a 53% to 60%
reduction in the
odds of injury or
death among
children struck by
an automobile in
their
neighborhood”
American Journal of
Public Health, April 2004
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
Tanzania
SERIOUS PROBLEMS: FEW EXAMPLES
Raised Medians on Highways
High Speeds on Highways Going Through Habited Areas
Guardrails Behind Raised Curbs
Increase in Speed Limits to 120 km/h
Wide Differentials Between Commercial And Car Speed Limits
Planting Trees in Runoff Areas of High Speed Roads
Slip Roads at Junctions on Urban Areas
Free Left Turns at Traffic Lights
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DECADE
Appoint a professionally staffed (with
permanent jobs (engineers, statisticians,
physicists, psychologists, etc) Agency for road
safety. It must be independent of the road
building department. At maturity – say 10 years
– it must employ >500 professionals around
the country.
Set appropriate road safety targets based on
interventions.
Fund research and training and establish at
least 10 Centres for research in academic
institutions