trading weekly 30th april 2011 - macrobusiness

8/7/2019 Trading Weekly 30th April 2011 - MacroBusiness

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Summary 1

ASX200 Index Analysis 1

Weekly Stock Scan 3 Performance 7

Open/Closed Trades 8

Calendar/Glossary 10

CONTENTS

ABOUT

The Prince is a full time

trader with extensive

experience in equities

and derivatives trading

and portfolio

management.

This report is written in context of a

medium term (1 to 6 mths) position trader,

focusing on the Australian share market.

DISCLAIMER

The content of this document should not

be taken as investment advice or

construed as a recommendation to buy

or sell any security or financial

instrument, or to participate in any

particular trading or investment strategy.

The views expressed are the opinion of

the author only.

The author may have a position in any

of the securities mentioned.

Any action that you take as a result of

information or analysis is ultimately your

responsibility. Consult someone who

claims to have a qualification before

making any investment decisions.

MacroBusiness Trading Day The Prince

Trading Week

Summary

The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 90 points lower, or 1.83 per cent to4,823 points on Friday. After a sideways move around the 4875 point

level, the market experienced a broad sell off on Friday.The market is now back to its pre-Japan/MENA correction pause level,

with support at 4800 points. Curiously, the correlation with the US markethas reversed, as the former gains new highs, whilst the Aussie trackssideways. Commentators suggest this is due to the high AUD impactinglocal company earnings and a Chinese central bank applying the brakes,but the “cautious consumer” and lack of housing construction and lending

is also weighing on the market (although banks are up).

The miners are also experiencing high volatility, with the S&P/ASX300Resources index down 7.8% since 11th April. Interesting times!

Monthly Analysis

The market is almost replicating the start of the 2003 boom, in terms of trend development, but the key difference is momentum and directionalstrength. The former is tapering and the latter is weak, with no strongsignals. Intra-month volatility has been high, and the number of dips and

corrections higher than the average.

These are clear signs of a bear market rally , not a new bull market.

30th April 2011

S&P/ASX200 Index Analysis

Chart 1. Monthly candlestick with 260 day moving average (pink line) and 12 month

Twiggs Momentum Oscillator .




Weekly Chart

The weekly chart illustratesthe volatility of the previous

12 months.

The Japan/MENA correctionfound a bottom near 4600points and the market hasrebounded swiftly, returningto its medium term trend.

However, the current weekhas closed below short term

support at 4850 points.

Secondary indicators suggesta bearish sideways patterncontinuation, with thepossibility of continued fallsto 4600 points.

30th April 2011

S&P/ASX200 Analysis (continued)

Chart 2. Weekly candlestick with 260 day moving average (pink line) and 13 week movingaverage (black line). Orange lines indicate support and resistance levels.

Daily Chart

The daily chart clearly showshow the trader’s have beenin control of the local market,as dips, corrections, rallies

and rebounds proliferate.

The rebound from the earlyApril dip has failed, withsupport broken at 4875

points.

Strong intra-day selling isreadily apparent (note thelong “wick” on Thursday’s

candle, and the deep bearishFriday candle).

The next support level is4800 points. Secondary

indicators are suggesting asideways bearish position.Chart 3. Daily candlestick with 15 day moving average (pink line) and medium term trend

(red line).




30th April 2011

S&P/ASX200 Analysis (continued)

Conclusion

The S&P/ASX200 Index continues to baffle observers as being out performed by poorer and more debt-ladeneconomies like the US, UK and Europe. The Chinese and commodity markets (but I repeat myself) areweighing on the local market and it appears the grand old correlation of AUS to US is slipping away.

The monthly and weekly charts support a continued bear market rally thesis, with increased volatility

compared to an out and out bull market (or Ponzi market as it appears in the US at the moment).

Resistance at 5000 points and support at 4600 points create a probable channel where prices will gravitatefor the time being. There maybe some short term price movements to be had, but on the whole, investorsshould stay away from the market - the old adage, “sell in May and stay away”, seems to be self-fulfilling.

Weekly Stock Scan - ASX100 and Small Ords

Name Code Pattern/Stance Position

AGL Energy AGK Medium term downtrend, small rebound rally AVOID

AMP Limited AMP Saucer bottom, sideways bullish BULLISH

ANZ Banking ANZ Sideways bullish AVOID

ASX Limited ASX Medium term downtrend BEARISH

BHP-Billiton BHP Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Bluescope Steel BSL Medium term downtrend accelerating BEARISH

Boral BLD Sideways bullish AVOID

Caltex CTX Sideways bullish AVOID

Coca-Cola Amatil CCL Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance BULLISH

Cochlear COH Medium term uptrend complete - sideways HOLD

Commonwealth Bank CBA Sideways bullish, short term trend AVOID

Crown CWN Sideways bullish AVOID

CSL CSL Sideways volatile AVOID

CSR CSR Medium term downtrend accelerating BEARISH

ASX100 Select

Note:

This is a filtered list, based on

liquidity, volatility and price

potential.

The completeindex can be

found on the

ASX page or

click here.

How to read

The two watchlists are filtered from the top 300stocks traded on the ASX. These are end-of-weekscans, using a medium term trading system toascertain the strength, direction and momentum of

trends.

The Trading Day reports will pinpoint likely entryand exits for short and medium term positions.

What does “position” mean?

Bullish = looking to add/start long position

Bearish = looking to add/start short position

Hold = maintained current position

Avoid = wait for direction/catalyst

Go to the glossary at the end of the report for more

information.

http://www.asx.com.au/products/capitalisation-indices.htm



http://www.empireinvesting.com.au/portfolio/cochlear-ltd-coh/

http://www.empireinvesting.com.au/portfolio/cochlear-ltd-coh/




30th April 2011

Weekly Stock Scan (continued)


David Jones DJS Sideways bullish AVOID

Fairfax Media FXJ Medium term downtrend, short term trend AVOID/COVER

Fortescue Metals FMG Sideways bullish, meeting resistance AVOID

Gunns GNS Sideways bearish AVOID

Harvey Norman HVN Medium term downtrend BEARISH

Insurance Australia IAG Sideways bearish, but small term uptrend AVOID

JB Hi-Fi JBH Sideways bearish AVOID

Macquarie Group MQG Medium term downtrend, hitting support AVOID

Myer Holdings MYR Sideways bearish AVOID

National Aust. Bank NAB Medium term uptrend BULLISH

Newcrest Mining NCM Medium term uptrend - near resistance BULLISH

Onesteel Ltd OST Medium term downtrend BEARISH

Origin Energy ORG Sideways bullish AVOID

Oz Minerals OZL Sideways bearish AVOID

Qantas Airways QAN Medium term downtrend, hitting support AVOID/COVER

QBE Insurance QBE Sideways bullish, short term uptrend AVOID

QR National QRN Sideways bullish AVOID

Rio Tinto Ltd RIO Sideways bullish HOLD

Sonic Healthcare SHL Sideways bullish, uptrend pausing BULLISH

Suncorp Group SUN Medium term downtrend, hitting support AVOID/COVER

Tabcorp TAH Medium term uptrend BULLISH

Telecom Corp. TEL Sideways bearish, breakout not confirmed AVOID

Telstra TLS Sideways bullish - possible breakout AVOID

Ten Network TEN Sideways bearish HOLD

Wesfarmers WES Sideways bullish AVOID

Westfield Group WDC Short term downtrend, finding support AVOID/COVER

Westpac Bank WBC Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Woodside WPL Sideways bullish, trend stalling HOLD

Woolworths WOW Sideways bearish AVOID

WorleyParsons WOR Small dip - take half profits HOLD

ASX100 Select

http://www.empireinvesting.com.au/portfolio/jb-hi-fi-ltd/

http://www.empireinvesting.com.au/portfolio/jb-hi-fi-ltd/




30th April 2011



Ardent Leisure AAD Sideways bullish AVOID

Aditya Birla ABY Medium term uptrend, pausing HOLD

Acrux ACR Medium term uptrend BULLISH

ARB Corporation ARP Sideways bullish AVOID

Ausdrill ASL Medium term uptrend complete - take profit AVOID

Billabong BBG Medium term downtrend, accelerating BEARISH

Blackmores BKL Sideways bullish AVOID

Bandanna Energy BND Medium term uptrend, accelerating BULLISH

Beach Energy BPT Medium term uptrend, pausing BULLISH

Bathurst Resources BTU Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Cabcharge CAB Sideways bearish AVOID

Cash Converters CCV Medium term uptrend, pausing HOLD

Centro Retail CER Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Carbon Energy CNX Sideways bearish - finding support AVOID

Car Sales.com CRZ Sideways bullish - medium term trend over AVOID

Data#3 Ltd DTL Sideways bullish - medium term trend over AVOID

Emeco Holdings EHL Sideways bullish - medium term trend over AVOID

Envestra ENV Medium term uptrend, accelerating BULLISH

Energy Resources ERA Medium term downtrend BEARISH

Forge Group FGE Sideways bullish - medium term trend over AVOID

Fleetwood FWD Sideways bearish - finding support AVOID

Flexigroup FXL Medium term uptrend, overbought? BULLISH

Graincorp GNC Medium term uptrend, pausing BULLISH

Hills Holding HIL Sideways bearish, possible breakout AVOID

Horizon Oil HZN Medium term uptrend BULLISH

Industrea IDL Sideways bullish, breakout pausing BULLISH

Infigen Energy IFN Medium term downtrend, possible breakout AVOID

Independence Group IGO Sideways bearish AVOID

ASX Small Ords

Select

Note: there areover 190 stocks

in the ASX Small Ords

Index.



potential.


found on the ASX page or

click here.






30th April 2011



Kingsgate Consol. KCN Medium term downtrend, finding support COVER

Lynas Corp LYC Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Matrix C & E MCE Medium term uptrend complete, sideways AVOID

Mineral Deposits MDL Medium term uptrend complete, sideways AVOID

Medusa Mining MML Medium term uptrend BULLISH

Mcmillan Shakespeare MMS Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Monadelphous MND Medium term uptrend complete, sideways AVOID

NRW Holdings NWH Medium term uptrend, pausing HOLD

Oceanagold OGC Sideways bearish AVOID

1300 Smiles ONT Sideways bearish - broke through support AVOID

Oroton Group ORL Sideways bullish AVOID

Pharmaxis PXS Sideways - short term trend pausing AVOID

REA Group REA Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance COVER

Reckon RKN Medium term uptrend, pausing HOLD

ROC Oil ROC Sideways bullish AVOID

Regis Resources RRL Medium term uptrend BULLISH

Saracen Mineral SAR Sideways bearish AVOID

Sedgman SDM Sideways bearish AVOID

Seek Ltd SEK Sideways bearish, possible breakout AVOID

Sigma Pharma. SIP Sideways bullish, short term trend BULLISH

Skilled Group SKE Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Silex Systems SLX Medium term downtrend, finding support COVER

Super Retail SUL Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

The Reject Shop TRS Medium term downtrend, finding support COVER

Virgin Blue VBA Medium term downtrend, finding support COVER

Whitehaven Coal WHC Sideways bearish, possible reversal AVOID

Western Areas WSA Medium term uptrend, meeting resistance HOLD

Wotif.com WTF Medium term uptrend BULLISH

ASX Small Ords

Select

Note: there areover 190 stocks

in the ASX Small Ords

Index.



potential.


found on the ASX page or

click here.



http://www.empireinvesting.com.au/portfolio/1300-smiles-ont/

http://www.empireinvesting.com.au/portfolio/1300-smiles-ont/




30th April 2011

Performance week ending 29th April

Chart 4. Closed equity (i.e net profit) curve modeled using portfolio management software by Stator .

Trading Statistics

Opening Equity $250K

Risk per trade 0.5%

Winning Trades 35

Losing Trades 15

Win/Loss Ratio 70%

Profit/Loss Ratio 2.08:1

Reward/Risk Ratio 0.38

Expectancy $0.38

Leverage 25%

Brokerage per trade $20

Net Profit (closed) $8,682 or 7.9%

Net Profit (all) $19,141 or 8.38%

Annualised Return 368%

A hypothetical portfolio, comprising $250,000 on 11th April, hasbeen modeled using a fixed percentage at risk moneymanagement model.

This model fairly represents my own personal trading account in

terms of size, leverage and risk per trade, but I do not have asmany open positions (usually 10 total positions, which maybe upto 30 parcels). The chosen leverage assumes high risk marginlending (75% LVR) or the use of CFD’s. A lower risk account

could use 50% leverage using MINI warrants (but restrictswatchlist to only the ASX100).

Trading Day trades are done either on the open or at the closingprice, depending on the trigger.

All Trading Day trades are inputted into this model, with capitalallocated according to a stop loss enacted on each trade.

As of 29th April, 25 trade parcels are open (for a total of 21

positions), comprising 16 longs and 9 shorts.

http://www.stator-afm.com/

http://www.stator-afm.com/




30th April 2011

Trade Summary

OPEN Code Position Entry Date Entry Price Current Price % P/L

ACR Long 21-Apr-11 $3.39 $3.49 11.17%

ASX Short 11-Apr-11 $33.12 $32.10 11.97%

BND Long 20-Apr-11 $2.10 $2.20 18.05%

BSL Short 28-Apr-11 $1.84 $1.73 22.51%

CCL Long 12-Apr-11 $12.16 $11.94 -7.53%

CSR Short 11-Apr-11 $3.19 $3.00 23.48%

CSR Short 19-Apr-11 $3.08 $3.00 9.87%

ENV Long 14-Apr-11 $0.61 $0.64 19.20%

ENV Long 21-Apr-11 $0.64 $0.64 -0.44%

ERA Short 15-Apr-11 $6.37 $5.45 57.12%

FXJ Long 21-Apr-11 $1.35 $1.32 -9.29%

GNC Long 18-Apr-11 $7.91 $7.82 -5.00%

HIL Long 21-Apr-11 $1.59 $1.57 -5.41%

HVN Short 11-Apr-11 $2.90 $2.68 30.13%

HVN Short 21-Apr-11 $2.82 $2.68 19.61%

MML Long 21-Apr-11 $8.33 $8.03 -14.97%

NAB Long 11-Apr-11 $26.41 $27.08 9.85%

NAB Long 21-Apr-11 $26.79 $27.08 4.02%

OST Short 12-Apr-11 $2.35 $2.13 37.13%

RRL Long 11-Apr-11 $2.42 $2.40 -3.62%

SEK Long 21-Apr-11 $6.93 $6.95 0.71%

SIP Long 15-Apr-11 $0.36 $0.37 10.38%

TAH Long 15-Apr-11 $7.56 $7.63 3.35%

WBC Long 11-Apr-11 $24.70 $24.84 1.98%

WHC Short 27-Apr-11 $6.72 $6.42 17.44%




30th April 2011

Trade Summary (continued)

CLOSED Code Exit Date Position Entry Price Exit Price % P/L

ERA 29-Apr-11 Short $7.72 $5.49 114.80%

SEK 29-Apr-11 Long $6.80 $7.09 16.12%

HZN 29-Apr-11 Long $0.41 $0.40 -11.43%

FXL 29-Apr-11 Long $2.16 $2.18 2.78%

FXL 29-Apr-11 Long $2.08 $2.18 18.53%

CCV 29-Apr-11 Long $0.85 $0.83 -10.22%

WES 29-Apr-11 Long $32.88 $33.14 2.52%

CBA 29-Apr-11 Long $53.55 $53.34 -1.99%

BBG 28-Apr-11 Short $7.30 $6.91 20.44%

BBG 28-Apr-11 Short $6.99 $6.91 3.62%

FWD 27-Apr-11 Short $11.63 $11.13 16.73%

IFN 27-Apr-11 Long $0.43 $0.46 25.69%

PXS 27-Apr-11 Long $2.89 $3.01 14.94%

CWN 27-Apr-11 Long $8.50 $8.43 -4.11%

OZL 27-Apr-11 Short $1.53 $1.53 -2.64%

TAH 27-Apr-11 Long $7.56 $7.90 17.21%

GNS 21-Apr-11 Short $0.58 $0.55 16.11%

SLX 21-Apr-11 Short $4.14 $4.01 10.62%

TRS 21-Apr-11 Short $11.73 $11.56 4.99%

MND 21-Apr-11 Short $20.42 $20.09 5.53%

CTX 21-Apr-11 Short $15.00 $14.51 12.21%

KCN 21-Apr-11 Short $8.50 $7.81 31.68%

BKL 19-Apr-11 Long $30.70 $29.75 -12.84%

TEN 19-Apr-11 Long $1.40 $1.36 -12.71%

ORL 18-Apr-11 Long $8.44 $8.34 -5.50%



MacroBusiness Trading Day The Prince Page10

30th April 2011

Glossary of Terms

Term Description

Bullish Biased towards an uptrend in the stock, either trend continuing or a new trend to develop

Bearish Biased towards a downtrend in a stock, or lack of potential for growth, or to add to a short

Long/Short The buying/selling of a security (or derivative thereof) with expectation it will rise/fall in value

Sideways Usually with a bullish/bearish bias, the stock is consolidating and not moving in a mediumterm basis, but may move in between a channel of prices through short term trends.

Hold To maintain the position and examine risk management (e.g tighten stops)

Avoid To avoid a position entirely, but not to stop watching for future potential

Resistance An upper price level that a stock or index can trade to, but not exceed.

Support A lower price level that a stock or index can trade down to, but not drop below.

Momentum The rate of change or acceleration of prices, either upwards or downwards.

Profit/Loss Ratio As opposed to Win/Loss (which can be below 50% yet still be profitable), the P/L ratiodetermines how much money you make when you are right, and how little you lose when you

are wrong.

Via RSS Feed: Trading Day at MacroBusinessSUBSCRIBE TO REPORT

Calendar

Date Event/Company Notes

Monday, 2nd May ABS House prices, commodity prices

Tuesday, 3rd May RBA Cash rate/RBA rate statement

Tuesday, 3rd May ANZ Earnings

Wednesday, 4th May WBC, CCL Earnings/Update

Thursday, 5th May ABS Building approvals, Retail Sales

Thursday, 5th May NAB Earnings

Friday, 6th May USA Unemployment rate

Tuesday, 10th May Commonwealth Bank (CBA) March QTR Trading update

For more up to date information on upcoming events go here.

http://www.igmarkets.com.au/cfd/financial-week-ahead.html

http://www.igmarkets.com.au/cfd/financial-week-ahead.html

http://feeds.feedburner.com/MacrobusinesscomauthePrinceMacrobusinesscomau

http://feeds.feedburner.com/MacrobusinesscomauthePrinceMacrobusinesscomau

trading weekly 30th april 2011 - macrobusiness

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