trading system rules
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1. Write trading philosophy. E.g.:
a. Market movement is almost random in nature but prices tend to trend.
They alternate between consolidating and trending phase. It is the shift
between these phases that is random. In other words, what will happen
tomorrow is random but what happens in the long run is not random.
The basic rule is that the more they consolidate the bigger the trend will
be (not in terms of time, but in terms of value). All losses incurred in the
consolidation phase can be covered and more in the trending phase.
It is important to survive the consolidation phase in order to enjoy the
trending phase.
b.
Market movement is random in nature, but prices tend to move in samedirection for some time, before taking a break (Newtons first law of
motion). The objective is to take advantage of thisLaw of inertia.
2. Understand the pros and cons of different markets, Cash market, Future and
Options market and chose one or combination. Understand the chosen
markets fully.
3. Understand pros and cons of different types of trading (Intraday, positional,
investing, hedging, etc) and chose your personal trading style. Have a clear
idea as to why you chose a particular style.
4. Understand pros and cons of different types of analysis (Fundamental,
technical) and chose your style. Equip yourself with the proper tools for the
analysis style.
5. Chose if you want to trade one scrip as an individual system or a set of scrips
as one system.
If you want to trade only one scrip, then chose that scrip very carefully.
If you want to trade set of scrips, then have reasons for choosing these
scrips. Make sure that they are not co related to a large extent (They should
not belong to the same sector like banks, pharma, IT, etc)
6. Decide what time frame you want to use (in case of technical charts) and
why that time frame? (1 min chart, 3 min chart, 15 min chart, etc)
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All the points mentioned above will be a reflection of your personality and
thus can prove to be detrimental if not done properly. Even the right choice
taken for a wrong reason can be detrimental.
7.
Describe trend definition (each individual will have their own definition). This
will define entry point.
8. Define max loss per trade (Individual choice again). Preferably as a %.
9. Define SL and TSL methodology. TSL can be defined by using trend
definition.
10. Decide whether you want to keep targets or not (The least important thing,
but necessary in order to complete the trading system). If yes, make sure
that it is more than your SL amount (including brokerage and other costs)
11. Drawdowns (set of continous losses) are an inevitable part of every trader's
life and also the most stressful part. Hence it is important to have a pre set
idea as to how to deal with them.
Will all the small and big DD's be treated in the same way or will the rules
undergo changes for different levels of DD. If yes, then why?
12. Now your system is ready. Next step is to backtest it (Implement the system
on historical data to check its performance).
You can write a computer program to do this, but unless you are a
programmer and can automate the system yourself, I suggest to backtest
manually. This will give you a feel of actual trading and more often than not
after backtesting few months you will tend to make some changes in your
rules (optimize it).
13. Optimisation is a very delicate thing. A system not optimized properly will
not be able to perform to its full whereas a system over optimized will tend
to fail in real trading scenario. The differentiating line between these two is
very thin.
Few ways to avoid over fitting is to theoretically define the reason behind
each rule and to backtest again from beginning after deciding on a rule
change. This will show how the change is affecting the system and whether it
holds sway over the next few monthsdata.
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All in all it is not good to make many changes. Try your best to keep it less
than 3, at max five. Make sure that there are atleast 300 trades, the higher
the better.
14. After backtesting is over, draw the equity curve without compounding. Does
this curve look good? Do you feel good just looking at it? Are you able tospot the DD's easily?
15. Draw linear regression line, with equation and r square co efficient (All this
can be done very easily in excel). Is the slope of the line good enough for
you? Is the r square co efficient good (Normally anything above 70 % is
very good, but beware of higher numbers. This maybe an indication of curve
fitting).
16. Check metrics of the system
No of gains vs No of lossesAvg gain / Avg loss
Calculate edge (No of gains * Avg Gain No of losses * Avg Loss). This
should always be positive. Higher the number the better your system is.
Max DD: Double this and prepare yourself mentally to face this DD in near
future. This will reduce drastically the risk of ruin (but not eliminate it
completely. This risk can never be eliminated completely).
17. Describe position sizing rules i.e. rules to increase traded quantity during
profits and to reduce traded quantity during DD. You can be relaxed while
increasing but be very fast while reducing. (This can be the life jacket for youin the stormy sea of trading. Hence ignore it at your own peril). You can use
double or higher of Max DD for this (only an option, not compulsory).
18. Forward test with few lots and increase lots as and when you a reach pre
defined levels in your equity curve.
19. Lastly (but probably the most important of all) work on your emotional
setup.