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Trading in Betfair Betting

Exchange

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Contents

Trading in Betfair Betting Exchange ............................................................................... 1

Introduction ................................................................................................................... 3

Before You Start ............................................................................................................. 5

Understanding the Odds ......................................................................................... 5

Lay Betting and Betting Exchange.................................................................................. 7

Betting Exchange .................................................................................................... 8

Laying ...................................................................................................................... 7

Singing-up at Betfair ...................................................................................................... 9

How to Use Betfair ....................................................................................................... 11

Trading Explaned .......................................................................................................... 16

Golden Rules of Bet Trading ........................................................................................ 19

Football Trading ........................................................................................................... 21

Lay the Draw ......................................................................................................... 24

Tennis Trading .............................................................................................................. 25

Back Favourite when Set Down ............................................................................ 27

Pre-Race Scalping in Horse racing ................................................................................ 30

Trading Software .......................................................................................................... 31

AGT Pro ................................................................................................................. 31

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Introduction

Sports trading is a great way to get extra or full-time income without even stepping foot out of own home. This e-book covers all bet trading aspects and after you read it you’ll know how to trade at biggest and most popular betting exchange – www.betfair.com.

Bet trading is similar to financial trading but instead of selling and buying currency, stocks or bonds traders trade bets. Also betting exchanges are used instead of regular bookmakers.

Traders place two kinds of bets:

Back - For something to come true, these bets are offered by every bookie;

Lay - Against something to come true. This type of bet can be placed only at betting exchange.

By placing these two bets traders guarantee only profit and no lose situation, just like in financial trading.

So how does sports bet trading is different if compared to financial trading and

regular betting?

Most significant advantages of bet trading over forex and other financial market

trading:

Faster markets – On average bet trading markets last several hours or even

minutes;

Lesser competition – financial markets are several decades old, and

competition is huge. Betfair was founded in 2000 and gained popularity only

few years later;

Watch your favourite sports event live, trade and profit in the same time –

isn’t that great?

Most significant advantages of bet trading over regular betting:

Possibility to profit on every outcome;

Lesser risk;

More control – trade out at any time to profit on every outcome or if needed

to cut off bigger loses.

Most popular and biggest betting exchange is Betfair, which was also the first betting

exchange in the world, where people can place Back and Lay bets against each other

and therefore trade.

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As there is no middlemen(i.e. bookmaker or totalizator) between bettors it’s

possible to get higher odds in betting exchanges than in other sportsbooks. But keep

in mind that betting exchange takes small commission from winnings.

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Before You Start

To be successful at Betfair trading it’s important to understand how bets themselves

works – what does numbers attached to bets mean, what is difference between back

and lay bet. If you understand how odds and lay betting work you can skip this

chapter.

Understanding the Odds

Newcomer can get confused by odds as he sees a lot of different numbers and he

doesn’t have a clue what do they all mean. Firstly you should know that odds are

representing value and chances of event to come true.

Imagine that you are playing Russian

roulette. Your chances of getting shot are

only 16.66%( 100%/6=16.666…% ) because

only one bullet is loaded instead of six. If all

six bullets were loaded chances would be

100%. If 3 bullets were loaded your chances

to get or not to get shot would be 50%. In

betting it’s similar only you are staying alive!

A team which most likely are going to win will be offered at lower value than other

team and that means you’ll win less if favourite team wins but unfortunately you can

lose your whole bet if favourite loses.

To get things more clear let’s take an example - you bet on highly favourite soccer

team with stake of 100$. If favourite team wins the match you get 20$, if team loses

you lose your whole 100$ bet.

But if you bet on the underdog or on the draw you can win more than your starting

bet. For example, with bet of 100$ you can win 500$. But remember that chances of

underdog to win are much lower. In this example it’s 20%. Average wining rate for

underdog will be only one game from five. By understanding given odds you can

understand what possibility and chances bookmaker or other traders gives for your

chosen event to come true. It’s important to remember and use this to your

advantage – compare given odds to ones you think should be right in given situation.

There are 3 most popular means of quoting odds – Fractional odds(e.g. 1/3, 1/2,

5/2), Decimal odds(e.g. 1.33, 2.5, 1.8), Moneyline odds(e.g. +100, -200, +200). We

will use decimal odds as these are most popular and easiest in the trading.

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Decimal odds

Mostly used in Europe, Canada and Australia. First difference from Fractional odds is

that bettor needs to part with his stake in order to bet. Your stake will be calculated

in winnings. Equal (50%) chances for both teams to win are represented as 2.0 in

decimal odds.

To calculate potential winnings simply multiply your stake with decimal odds. As a

result you’ll get your winnings and your stake. For example, you have a bank of 100$

and you bet all in (100$) at odds of 1.2. Your potential bank after positive result are

120$(100$ bet + 20$ money won).

Decimal odds are being used in Betting Exchanges as they are easier and more

popular than other formats.

To convert decimal odds to probability percentage divide 100 with n, where n are the

odds.

Examples: Odds of 5.0: 100 / 5 = 20%

Odds of 1.5: 100 / 1.5 = 66.666...%

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Lay Betting and Betting Exchange

Key in trading is a possibility to lay. Regular bookmakers don’t offer this option, it’s

possible to place only regular bets i.e. for something to come true. For example,

“team A” to win. In bet trading these are called Back bets.

Opposite to Backing is Laying. In regular bookies lay bet is placed by bookie itself. To

be able to trade you need to be able to Back and Lay. And this is where betting

exchange comes into play as laying is possible only at betting exchanges such as

Betfair or Betdaq.

Laying

To understand trading you need to understand laying. So what is laying and how it’s different from backing? When you BACK something to calculate your possible winnings you need to multiply your stake with the odds. E.g. odds for team A to win are 1.8 you back it with $100 and your possible profit is $80(100 * 1.8 – 100 = 80).

To lay a bet is to back something not to happen. Laying is the same as backing only reverse. You always win the same amount as your stake. But if you lose - amount of lost money depends on odds. So if odds are 1.8 and stake is 100$ you can lose 80$ and win 100$.

More examples:

If you lay low odds as 1.05 you only risk losing $5 but you can win $100.

If you lay at odds of 5.5 you risk losing $450, but win - $100.

You can lay almost in any sport, but you should remember – more outcomes mean higher odds, higher odds means higher liability. Many outcomes can be found in horse racing and correct score markets.

As said before Lay betting gives opportunity to trade. Back with higher odds and lay with lower and as a result you’ll get all profit and no lose situation. We can say that Back and Lay are synonyms to Sell and Buy.

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Betting Exchange

First difference if betting exchange is compared to regular bookmaker is that bets are placed against other bettors not against exchange or bookie. To every bet you place someone places opposite one.

If Lay bet is placed, to other exchange users it will show up as back bet and vice-versa. You can even say that by placing lay bet you take a role of a bookmaker.

Another advantage is that you can offer your own odds or take odds already offered by other exchange users. Almost always there are back and lay bets offered.

In following examples Betfair Betting Exchange will be used. Betfair is most popular betting exchange and it has markets with most liquidity.

Image above shows football(or soccer if you prefer) match between Befica and Liverpool. You can see that here is £1340 offered to BACK Benfica at odds of 2.46. It means that other bettors are waiting to get their LAY bets matched at 2.46.

If someone places £40 BACK bet at odds of 2.46 then money shown at 2.46 will change from £1340 to £1300. (To place a bet you just have to press on square with odds you want to use, after that you can accept given odds or offer you own, but more on this later!)

Another example: If you LAY Benfica at odds of 2.46 then money showed at 2.46 will change from £1340 to £1380 and your bet WILL NOT be matched. You will need to wait till someone BACKs Benfica to get your bet matched.

Also it’s same with LAY bets, if LAY bet is placed at odds of 2.48, then you’ll see that money shown at 2.48 will change to a lesser amount, if someone Backs at 2.48 then opposite will happen – amount of money will change to bigger, also it will not be matched, you will need to wait till someone lays at 2.48.

You may wonder, how does betting exchanges profit if bettors bet against each other? Answer is simple: There is 5% commission to all winning bets.

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Singing-up at Betfair

Firstly, to trade at Betfair you have to register there. If you worry about how safe it is

– then don’t. Betfair is used by thousands of users every day and no single security

problem have occurred.

Registration

1. Go to Betfair website(It’s recommended to use this link in order to receive

free bet)

2. When you open the link Betfair free bet promotion comes up. Maximal amount of free bet is €30 or £25. Amount like this is fully sufficient for beginner trader. How does Free Bet work: Deposit and bet with stake of €30 or £25 and if a bet loses Betfair will credit your loses back, up to €30 or £25(same as lost stake). Free bet offer is available only for first bet placed within 21 days of account registration. To receive free bet be sure to enter AFF025 code.

3. Press “Claim Now” and fill all required fields. Be sure to fill following field in order to qualify for Free Bet offer:

Press “Agree and open account”

4. Now place a €30/£25 bet. If you win – your starting capital is increased, if not – you’ll get your money back in 48 hours of the bet being settled.

5. Before you can withdraw money from Betfair you have to confirm your

identity. You can do it by going to -> Betfair website -> Login with your

username & password -> My account (top right corner) -> My profile ->

upload personal documents using our secure service.

Set „I would like to” to “confirm my age”

Scan and upload one of the following:

Passport

Driving Licence

National Identification (photographic)

Citizenship Certificate

Tell Betfair what document you’re sending in supporting comments box.

If credit card will be used to deposit and withdraw money it should be

confirmed too.

In field „I would like to” choose “prove credit card ownership”.

And scan and send one of the following:

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A scan or photo of your credit card or debit card registered on your Betfair

account (front only). Before you send us your scanned card, ensure that you

have blanked out the card number, leaving only the last four digits visible.

Account Statement of a Betfair-registered credit or debit card (less then 3

months old). Before you send us your scanned statement, ensure that you

have blanked out the card number, leaving only the last four digits visible.

Bank Statement with a Betfair transaction or the number of a Betfair

registered card visible on it (less than 3 months old)

“What if”

Be sure to enable “What if” option. It shows what will happen to your profit and loses if unplaced bets were matched.

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How to Use Betfair

Finding needed match, race or game in Betfair is very easy. To find specific match

follow these steps:

1. Open Betfair webpage.

2. Press “Sports”. List of sports will appear at the left side.

3. Choose type of a sport and the league. I choose football and German

“Bundesliga”

4. Select match and market type. I choose “St Pauli v Kaiserslautern” match and

“Match Odds” market:

There are some useful buttons which are quite self-evident but I’ll describe them

anyway:

Refresh – when you press it, all market data gets refreshed. If you don’t – market is

refreshed automatically every 30 seconds.

In-play – a market will be offered for live trading. ( - selected match hasn’t started

yet - selected match is going in-play)

Form Stats – opens new form with team stats and previous meetings.

To bet, simply click on corresponding field – blue or pink. When you do that new

window will open, where you have to enter stake and if you want – your own odds,

but then you’ll have to wait until someone accepts them.

For example, if lay The Draw with lower odds than offered (3.65, 3.6, 3.55, 3.50, and

so on) it’s possible that you’ll have to wait for a long time before it gets matched. If a

goal is scored at the start of the match, then odds will jump up and it’s very likely

that your bet will stay unmatched for whole match.

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In this example I lay with stake of £30

Bet won’t be accepted and matched instantly when “Place Bets” is clicked.

This happen because Betfair enforces few seconds delay time in between when bet

is matched and submitted. This is done with aim of preventing unfair advantage of

traders who trade from stadium, hall or field where sports event is taking place.

Unmatched bets can be cancelled instantly.

When bet is matched you can see possible profit and loses:

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Active bets are shown at “My bets” tab:

You can see my first bet there. I’ll be using Lay the Draw system(we’ll return to it

later) to get profit on all outcomes.

In this match first goal was scored in first minutes and odds for draw jumped to 4.6.

To get profit on all outcomes I have to place smaller back bet. In this case I back with

stake of £24.7 and profit is ensured on every outcome:

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Unmatched bets

As previously mentioned you can offer your own odds to the market. If you put

lower odds than offered, most likely your bet will not get matched as there are more

lucrative odds on the market if compared to yours for other traders to accept.

If bet isn’t matched message will appear:

Also unmatched bets are shown at “My Bets” tab. In case you placed many bets use

this tab to not lose track of them.

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A bet can be cancelled by clicking on or “Cancel all unmatched”

To view all bets in all markets go to “My account” -> “Current Bets”

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Trading Explained

Firstly, in sports trading unlike in regular betting traders place many bets with aim to

guarantee profit on all outcomes – only profit and no lose situation. Aim is to BACK

at the higher price and LAY at lower so a trader ends up earning on all possible

outcomes and eliminates any possibility to lose.

Picture above shows horse racing. You can see that two bets are placed – Back and

Lay. Also whichever horse wins profit is guaranteed. There isn’t any possibility for

loses.

Finding the value and accurate prediction of odds movement is a key to profitable

bet trading. Odds movement is affected by many different factors. It’s possible to

trade before the match and also in-play.

Price movement before the match can be affected by many different factors such as

popularity of team, player injuries, motivation, etc. In-play price movement can be

affected by previous factors mentioned but generally it’s affected by what is

happening in the match.

For things to be clearer and how trading works I’ll give some examples. First example will be based on Football (soccer) match.

E.g. In the match team A scores goal and odds drops from 2.4 to 1.6 for team A to win, so if you backed team A at 2.4 for $100 then if team A wins you win $140, if B team wins or it’s draw you lose $100. Just like in regular betting.

Now trading aspect comes in. You lay team A after the first gaol at 1.6(remember odds dropped after 1. Goal) for $100, if team A wins you lose $60 of your LAY bet, if draw or team B wins it’s +$100(we are calculating lay bet only).

Now we count both bets together (Back and Lay), and you win $80 if team A wins (140+ (-60) = 80) if it’s either draw or team B wins you lose nothing (-100 + 100 = 0)!

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Little table to understand this better:

Team A wins: $140 + (-$60) = $80 Team B wins: -$100 +$100 = $0 Draw: -$100 +$100 = $0

(blue – your possible win/lose after 1. bet || red – your possible win/lose of your 2. bet || green – you possible win/lose after 2. bet and after the game if you are not betting anymore.)

If after the goal it looks like team B will score back you can Lay with larger bet so that you win on all outcomes. I strongly recommend you doing so because as you know in sport anything can happen. Now I’ll put this in the example: It’s the same odds only LAY bet is larger! As previously you backed team A at 2.4 with $100 and now odds are 1.6 after the first goal. Now you lay with $150 your liability is $90(1.6 * 150 – 1), if team A wins you lose -$90, if not you win +$150 taking in account only Lay bet. End result will be like this:

Team A wins: $140 + (-$90) = +$50 Team B wins: -$100 +$150 = +$50 Draw: -$100 + $150 = +$50

Both examples apply to other sports as well. By following examples above you can trade on any sport. Most popular sports for trading are Horse racing, Soccer and Tennis. In Horse racing in-play price movement will depend on horse position in the track. Horse racing markets are fastest ones. Soccer markets are ones of the slowest as soccer game goes for 90+ minutes and mostly price moves only when goals are scored. In a tennis match price movement depends on the games, points, breaks. In tennis markets price of bets can go up and down many times, also tennis markets are more active than soccer markets, as price movement is affected by every point.

Picture above shows typical soccer graph after the first goal. The goal is scored and odds drop from around 2.0 to 1.28.

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This graph shows ATP tennis match movement odds. It’s affected by points and breaks.

If you’re a beginner in sports bet trading I strongly suggest you to start with small stakes. There is no point of losing huge money. Once you gain more confidence you can consider increasing your stakes.

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Golden Rules of Bet Trading

There are several trading rules which are important for every trader if he aims to

achieve success with bet trading.

Control

You should always be in control of your trading. Execute your trades accordingly to

your plan. Don’t act impulsively on feelings of fear to lose and greed. Losing your

control will lead you to losing money.

Taking responsibility

Successful traders take responsibility for winning bets and as well for losing bets. If

you encounter loss don’t blame anyone else – markets, some tip, advice, boss, wife

or kids – but evaluate whether your reasoning for the trade was correct. And if not

think what needs to be improved in your trading.

Psychology

Psychology is important part of trading. Success of trading is in your mind. Don’t

trade when you feel tired or even not sober. It’s important to have a clear mind to

make right decisions! If you encountered loses take a day off if needed and relax,

then start next trade with fresh head.

Edge

To be a winner you need an edge. It can be achieved by research, technical analysis,

system that defines trading rules such as entry and exit points. Losers have no edge

and often no system or a losing system that they use anyway.

Methods that suit you

Use trading methods that suit you. Choose most suitable for you according to your

time, resources, attitude toward risk and to personal views. If you’ll use system that

isn’t suitable for you then you’ll lose in a long term.

Risk and reward

Always take in account risk and reward. Value probability and reward of trade. Some

trades have high probability but little reward if trade is successful. Other trades have

low probability but again huge reward if successful. Understanding risks and rewards

of your trades is crucial!

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Money management

Always stick to your staking plan. Don’t change it when you experienced losing trade

to get loses back. Make changes accordingly to your bank not to results of trades.

Don’t get greedy and stick to your staking strategy!

Exit strategy

Always define an exit point these are just as important as entry points. Before

entering market set yourself an stop loss and profit target, this should be done for

every trade. Of course you can change, adopt and improve exit points to trading

strategy later one. If a trade goes wrong way, don’t wait for a market to change

direction but exit it accordingly to definition in your strategy.

Write your plans and strategy

Write your plans regarding budget, target, trading rules, plans and other important

stuff. Think of trading as a business and written plan as a business plan. Cover every

important aspect of your trading!

Monitor your performance

Always monitor your performance and keep records of loses and wins. You can use

this data to analyze mistakes and improve your trading. If you discover that things

are not going well look how to improve your trading and minimize mistakes.

It’s easier to read these tips than follow them, but they are very important to

successful trading, so always keep them in mind!

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Football Trading

Usually a football match provides slow market and there is plenty of time to decide

your next trading move. Rapid odd movement is triggered only by goals. Most

popular trading markets for football trading are Match odds markets, but still it’s

possible to trade on Over/Under markets and Correct Score markets too. Whichever

market you choose most likely odds will move slowly in one direction and then after

a goal is scored all markets will get suspend for some seconds. When a market is

opened odds will change position to a much higher or lower.

Match odds markets

This market is most popular. In football matches you’ll see odds drop for a team

which scores a goal. Odds for opponent team and the draw(not always) will rise.

If strong favourite team (around 1.3) scores then of course odds for favourite team

will drop and odds for draw and underdog team will rise drastically. But if an

underdog scores odds for favourite team can rise to around 2.0 and other team can

still be offered at higher odds and odds for the draw will most likely drop, as it’s

likely that a favourite will score back.

Amount by which odds rise can be affected by factors such as if teams usually score

many goals or not, if teams are good at defence or offense. Movement of odds are

always notable and that allows traders to make profitable trades.

Below are some charts to illustrate odd movement better.

Draw odds after favourite scores first goal.

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Favourite team loses a goal.

Favourite team scores two goals.

Over/Under markets

Over/Under markets are popular for trading too. First difference from Match odds

markets is that odds will jump only one way if a goal is scored. This market is more

active than match odds market.

As example we’ll take over/under 2.5 goals market, usually it’s most active of all

over/under markets. Odds for under 2.5 goals market will continuously drop as

match goes until a goal is scored. Odds will jump to a higher point when one of the

teams scores. Amount by which odds move can be affected by factors such as if

teams are high or low scoring on average, time in which goal is scored(if it’s at the

beginning of match odds will move more), how many goals there are scored already.

This can be referred to other over/under markets as well but odds will be different

accordingly to different markets. For example, in over/under 4.5 market odds for

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Under 4.5 Goals at the start and possibly whole match will be very low but in

over/under 1.5 market odds for Under 1.5 Goals usually are high as probability for

one goal in the whole match is relatively small.

Below are some charts to illustrate odds movement better.

In graphs above you see typical match where only one goal is scored in middle of

match. These are 2.5 markets.

Correct Score markets

Correct score markets are less popular than two previously mentioned ones and

therefore liquidity in correct score markets are lower. In Correct Score there are

many markets and because of that odds for every selection are high.

Movement of odds depends from selection and time when goals are scored in the

match. For example, if a goal is scored in first half odds will drop for correct scores

like 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and other higher too. But odds for scores like 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, tend to

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come down as the match goes if goals aren’t scored. Of course in later stages of the

match odds for 1-0 and 0-1 will rise too.

Lay the Draw

Lay the Draw is most popular trading system for soccer trading. Although years back

it was more profitable than it is now, nevertheless it’s still possible to be profitable

with this bet trading system.

Basically it’s very simple but adjustable to your likings. It consists of two basic steps:

1) Lay the draw

You need to choose a soccer match where you think a goal will be scored. Chosen

match should be without strict favourite. Lay the draw.

2) Wait for a Goal and Back the Draw

Once goal is scored odds for Draw will go up. Back the draw and end up with all

green (winnings on all results).

To be successful at Lay The Draw system you need to have a good selection of

matches. You would want to choose teams that score and lose many goals. You can

look at over/under 2.5 market to see what other bettors think. If odds for over 2.5

are lower than odds for under 2.5 goals, then the match should have enough goals.

Of course when selecting soccer matches for LTD trading consider which players will

play, how important the match is, is there injured players and how important they

are, is the team motivated and so on.

Another thing worth keeping in mind - don’t bet on matches with big favourites as

draw odds can go down as market is waiting for favourite team to score back.

0-0

Basically you should avoid football matches where possibility of having result of 0-0

is higher than in other matches. But still sooner or later there will be a match with 0-

0 in your selections. At some time in a match you can back 0-0 to ensure that you

will not lose if score stays 0-0 till the end of the match. Also you should think about

exit strategy, but there isn’t clear definition of exit point. You can leave the game if

no goals are scored at 70-85 minutes and lose less than at the end of match if score

is still 0-0.

But at the other hand there are many examples where team scores in the last

minutes even in 90+. So if you really trust in your selections you can wait till the

match ends without any exit point. Odds will go up much higher if a goal is scored at

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the end of the match not at the beginning. That means that your profit will be higher

from goals near the end of a football match.

Laying the draw after the first period if score is still 0-0 is also an option.

I strongly recommend watching match live via TV or online stream to get feel of it. If

you see that match is slow and players aren’t looking motivated then it’s better to

quit the match and accept smaller loss than your whole liability at the end of it.

Tennis Trading

One of most important factors when you trade sports is market volatility and most

volatile sport in terms of trading is tennis. Odds movement in tennis markets is

affected by serves, games, points, unforced errors, injuries, player fitness, rallies and

most important – breaks. So you can see that there are a way more factors than in

football.

To predict match scenario many traders use statistics. By using statistics you can

learn what percentage of chances for a player is to hold a serve, break opponents

serve, number of aces, receiving/serving winning points, possible comeback after

losing game or set, etc.

But using only statistical data like this can give you assumption that possibility to win

points and serves remain the same trough whole match. There are other important

factors that affect players, these are psychology, fitness and motivation. For

example, when score in 1st set is 4:5 and a player with 4 points is serving, probability

that opponent(player with 5 points) will break serve is much higher than in previous

games as player is facing psychological pressure to lose a set. Also everyone will

agree that struggling to hold your serve in one game and after that seeing 40-0 your

opponent leading in next game can be very demoralizing no matter if it’s simply luck

or something else. So probabilities to win points in each game may vary.

Points and Service Breaks

Generally movement of odds depends on points and breaks. If player holds his serve

odds will move down by 6-20(sometimes even more) ticks. Odds will move less when

strong serving players serve and/or in earlier stages of match than in later stages of

match or for players with weak serve.

Odds will move rapidly if break of serve occurs. Breaks are turning points of a tennis

match. If you’re looking to trade tennis then your best entry into the betting market

is related to break of serve. Predicting breaks can lead to successful trading and nice

profits. Also if a match is close one then odds will move much more. For example in a

match where odds of “player A” to win are 1.3. After a break they will drop

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approximately to 1.15 but if odds for “player A” to win are about 2.0 then odd

movement will be much bigger, odds can drop down to around 1.5. If you trade in

later stages of a match you can aim for more profit but keep in mind that risk to lose

will increase too.

There can be many breaks and comebacks in close matches. Close matches tend to

throw up more possibilities. Odds can swing up and down quite a lot. Many close

matches give you opportunity to profit anyway whether you laid or backed at the

beginning of it.

As you can see in graph above the line shows you supposed starting position taken

when tennis match started. You would have many chances to profit either you

backed or laid. You can even reverse your position. Lay low at 1.1 and back high at

2.0 and get only profit bet with odds of 1.9!

Odds movement in WTA/ATP, Grand Slams

Although previously mentioned factors work for every type of tennis tournaments

but an amount of ticks by which odds move can be different. In man Grand Slams

tournaments odds will move less than in regular ATP tournaments as players need to

win 3 sets instead of 2 and that gives more time to change course of a tennis match.

In WTA odds for holding the serve will move more than in ATP as women serving is

weaker, therefore odds movement will be less affected by breaks as players can

break many times.

Train to 1.01

Of course there are one sided matches too where odds goes only one side. Often this

happens when weak player faces strong player. As mostly odds will be very low for

favourite there will be little possibilities for a trade. But there can be matches where

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players are equally rated and that is represented in odds too. And one player

strongly outplays other and odds move only one way. Or even strong underdog

clearly outplays the favourite. Reasons for this can be injury, lack of motivation,

corruption(fixed match) or simply getting out of bed on the wrong foot.

In a graph above you can clearly see that favourite player is outplayed by underdog

and he loses the match. If you happen to be on the wrong side then it’s important to

trade out as soon as possible. To avoid situations like this it’s recommended to

follow a match for some games before entering the market. Tennis matches like this

aren’t common. But still it’s good to research players before the match starts and

learn about their possible injuries, motivation, etc.

Tennis markets are ones of the most active in terms of odds movement. That makes

them excellent for trading. Still there are some disadvantages, some matches can get

very long and these can get affected by rain delays also. Of course tennis traders

should be aware of one sided matches which give no or little possibilities to trade.

Back Favourite when Set Down

Back favourite when Set Down is one of the most popular tennis trading strategies.

It’s a swing trading strategy. Profit is made from huge swings in tennis matches.

There is high chance that favourite player will win second set if he lost the first. Huge

odds swings in the tennis market are mostly created by breaks and it’s possible to

exploit this to successfully make profit.

Steps:

1) Choose a tennis match where odds on favourite player are 1.5 and lower.

2) Back favourite tennis player if he lost the first set.

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3) Wait for favourite to break back or take the second set, then Lay him to get profit

and no lose situation.

This graph shows odds for Nicolas Almagro in a tennis match between Nicolas

Almagro and Luckas Kubot. As you can see before the match odds for Almagro were

around 1.23. Almagro lost first set in tie-break and odds moved to 1.72. Then he won

second set by 6:2. Odds dropped to 1.25.

In this example you would need to Back Almagro after the first set at odds of 1.72

and trade out(Lay) when Almagro broke Kobot service game(odds around 1.39) or

when he won the second set and get no lose and only profit situation. In this case

you win 49 quid(1.72-1.25) that means if you put all profit on Almagro and your bets

were $100 you will get $47 profit if Almagro wins in the 3rd set and in the match if

not you lose nothing. Although favourite player may seem confident in his game, I

recommend you to put some green on other player you can do it accordingly to the

odds. You can never know for 100% which player will win in 3rd set.

If favourite tennis player struggles in the second set you can trade out without any

profit/small loss. If a player doesn’t look confident then trade out in 6th-7th game of

second set. Also you can use graphs to get more knowledge of a tennis match if you

see big swings in first set like in example graph above, then it’s very likely that

favourite player will not give up without a fight as odds show that favourite player is

fighting.

Don’t Back favourite when player:

looks really unmotivated;

is injured;

lost first set almost without any fight.

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Even if you follow all these rules there will still be some losers. If favourite player lost

a break in the second set you can trade out and take a loss. Or if you really trust in

your selections you can let it roll to end of the match. There are plenty of matches

where favourite player loses the first set and loses service game in the second and

still breaks back and even wins a match.

Obviously you should use smaller stakes accordingly to your bank than using Back

Serving Player strategy as loses will be bigger. Analyze data, statistics and follow

matches via live stream or TV to get best results.

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Pre-Race Scalping in Horse racing

For pre-race scalping use markets where price is quite stable, usually it’s on the

favourite. In pre-race scalping only small tick movement is used.

In stock markets there is a theory ‘bouncing ball’, it can be applied to sports trading

as well, especially to horse racing.

First of all you’ll need some trading software, for example, Gruss Betting Assistant or

Bet Angel. Don’t want to subscribe? Then you can use and do fine with AGT Pro(It’s

free).

Use this strategy in the markets about 12 minutes before the race starts, as then

markets are most active, of course definite time can vary depending on different

factors such as amount of other races in same day, popularity, etc.

First thing to do after opening the market is to find previous points of resistance.

These are the lowest and highest prices in a market graph. For example, previous

highest point in a graph is 3.4 and lowest 3.2. Now you need to put Back order at 3.4

and Lay order at 3.2 and wait for them to get matched, obliviously stake of lay bet

should be a bit larger to get profit on all results. Also remember to look for the spots

where there is little money as you’ll get in top of the queue so you’ll be matched

faster. There is option to place bets separately too. Put a Back bet at a higher

price(top point of resistance) and wait for the price to come down and lay it or even

do it vice versa(lay then back).

There are risks too, price can move other way from point of resistance, this is called

a breakout, in that case you should get out quickly and don’t hope that price will

move back to your position! This can lead you to more loss. You can set betting

software to red out automatically if things go wrong way.

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Trading Software

Trading software can greatly ease the trading process. Most important advantages of

trading software over straight betfair website traiding are:

Real time data;

Faster bet placing and cancelling;

Faster entry or exit from markets;

Possibility to use many markets at the same time;

Software customization to personal needs;

Stop loss settings.

AGT Pro

Most trading software come with monthly subscription therefore it won’t be

lucrative for beginner trader. But don’t panic there is completely free alternative –

AGT Pro. You can get it here.

To use it register at AGT Pro forums. Once software is installed you’ll be asked to

login with both - AGT forum account(only for the first time) and Betfair account.

AGT looks similar to Betfair webpage. At left side you select sports and leagues. Once

you’ve done that new window will open:

As an example I use Match Odds(1X2) market. First thing you’ll notice is that all data

refreshes in real time and you don’t have to press refresh button repeatedly. Simply

click on the odds to place a bet. I Lay the draw:

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At the left bottom side new window will open: Place Bets. Just like in Betfair website

you can change amount of stake and odds. To submit or cancel bet use green or red

button.

Unmatched bets are shown at left side like this:

My bet has been accepted:

- £0.40 shows profit or lose if market were hedged.

- £30.40 shows amount of stake needed to hedge market.

After the first goal odds for the draw jumps to 4,7:

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Right click on the market and press “Hedge Entire Market”:

AGT Pro will calculate optimal stake to equally divide profit on all outcomes. A

confirmation window will open. Simply click on the confirmation window to confirm

your bet.

As you can see my profit isn’t equal on every outcome. This happened because after

the goal market is very active and odds aren’t stable. When I pressed “Hedge Entire

Market” odds were 4,5. Odds changed position to 4,6 when betfair matched my bet

that`s why profit on the draw is bigger.

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Hedge again to equate profit:

Complite manual for AGT Pro can be found here.

Want to learn more about bet trading or other betting systems? Visit

www.beatbookie.net