trade positioning for 2016' - 15.12.15 - round the clock trader addended

www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper

In 2014 we mused that

1. EURCHF Floor to Fail January for a 30% scoop2. Oil would collapse3. Sell China Buy Russia [JRS – JPMorgan Russia Fund vs Hang Seng]4. FX Emerging Rout vs Dollar [MXN, ZAR, TRY, RUB, BRL]5. Equity Trades:

I. Long Carnival [CCL 26.35 – 34.43]II. Short LonminIII. Others Shorts - Glencore/Huntsman/TSCO/Many others


Look back at Lonmin


A quick look back - Lonmin


A look back - Oil!


More recently on Brent Oil $36.8


State of Play going into 2016

1. Global Interest Rates - We have trained an ‘Enterprise Environment’ & ‘Share market of Equities’ that can only function on a ‘negligible cost’ of debt = Mega Rate Sensitivity for existing business to interest rate environment

2. FANG - We have Created an Oligopoly, an elite class of ‘Techno Platformed Globo Mega Corporates’, who dominate multiple geography markets if not globally so. They establish themselves as a new technology leader or as initially as cost leader with a smarter ‘Tech Interface’ - No More ANTI TRUST Defence anymore it seems


State of Play going into 2016

3. Huge Dollar based debt - in emerging markets, whilst commodity prices sink [Their primary revenue, has been in an extended bear market, and is obliterated] In Maths Speak :

EM FX Deval + $Debt + $Int Rate Rise + Strong$ + Commodity Collapse = EM Crisis

4. Yuan - China’s Yuan has just been added to the IMF’s Currency Bundle SDR


The Trends for 2016 - Equity Bear

Trend 1 – An ‘ongoing’ Bear market for most medium sized listed corporates, with non-dominant positions in their industry, and just single or few geographic client markets.

I am hunting on US MidCap Stocks, and getting rich pickings.


Short AU Optronics[AUO] - , Sunoco [SXL],

Shire (US)[SHPG:XNAS]


New one for you? – Winstream Texas Fibre & Cloud co. – WIN:XNAS


Trigger Timeframe – WIN:XNAS


The Trends for 2016 – 2. FANG

Trend 2 – Utter Dominance of an elite class of ‘Techno platformed Globo Mega Corporates’, who dominate multiple geography markets, initial as cost leader and smarter ‘Tech Interface’


FANG - the Only ‘Long’ Game in town.. Beware Reset Day

FANG – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Gilead Sciences, Google.

The Techno Platformed Global Corpotocracy is the safest long category, in the ‘limp on’ economic malaise, they have:

1. Scale2. Cash, very useful post any reset3. User friendly Tech interfaces – Uber/Amazon Portal4. Patents5. Global reach6. Able to attract best employee’s7. Legal globalised tax arbitrage, that slaughters national rivals in reinvestment capital8. Old style Industry rivals, whose market share is ripe for pinching9. Warning…Will fall just as hard if all else does.. Can’t succeed in a void


ARM Strong - Chips over Pharma


ARM – Bull Flag IL2


ARM – Volume Precedes resumption


FANGS


Amazon


GOOG


Facebook


FANG - the Only ‘Long’ Game in town.. Beware Reset Day

Facebook, Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Gilead Sciences, Google TOO Expensive for you.

NEW possible FANG’s worth considering – ‘Uber’, Goldman Sachs, Google as investors, also consider AirBnB


The Trends 2016 – 3. Battering EM’s

Trend 3 – Numerous Emerging Market Dollar Debt Defaults or ‘Nearfaults’ – Followed up with hard line negotiations from the IMF, whose Mainstream media profile escalates to at least that of the Central Banks.

Plus also see’s their SDR drawing rights & Bailout program, becoming more established, as the ‘help & hero’ vehicle of choice for beleaguered emerging nations.

Within this, many emerging nations in this position of a default/nearfault, face vicious fiscal austerity at a national level, and lose control over their State Assets, Airports, Ports, National Airlines, State Health Services/Prison Services/Infrastructure Maintenance are privatised, outsourced with many contracts awarded to a select global outsourcing companies often US based, with strong Military/Oil/Washington Lobby money.


Emerging Batterings

Conclusion Trend 3:

1. Prepare to short emerging market indices & select equities further2. Short Emerging FX further till a major political event – Example Jacob Zuma President RSA to

be sacked. My picks are MXN, TRY, BRL, ZAR [but just melted up so wait]. New Ruble ramp through 100 called at 66 a fresh 50% melt Up.. Likley associated Geopolitical events to go with this

3. Fear, unstability & ‘flight to core’ on weak emergings could see particular JPY strength, then USD too


New Ruble shock through 100


Last time we called Ruble was pre UKR hostilities


In our trading strategy, we never chase & sometimes the train comes back for you – 5 Stages of a breakout Theory


Holy Grail HVF Trade with Primer, 2nd Chance & Over Performance


I mean real ‘Over Performance’! Learn how we used Overperformance bands & when


Yen maybe strongest – ZAR weakest


From 10 Yen end 2014 to 4.456 by end 2017 – 56% loss


The Trends for 2016

Trend Outlier Event 4 – China, now in the SDR which it sort, slowly becomes more vocal about Dollar Hedgemony, & Global Imbalances. Despite inclusion in the IMF Currency bundle, it continues to pursue a ‘second way’ through the BRICS arrangements initiated awhile back.

US & China relations actually deteriorate further, with a clear Cybernet Hackers war in both directions underway in silent mode, with occasional high profile accusations breaking out.

China’s slowing economy is sputtering and either numerous Devaluations take place during 2016, or one large devaluation takes place measuring 5% or more.

Equities remain undermined.


Last Week in Copper 232-224


This week in Copper 209 – 203?


Tough for Glencore


Glencore TGT thru 85p


The Trends for 2016

Conclusion –

1. Sustained pressure, possible disaccumulation of commodities, run down of stockpiles – refer the ghost cities of new build property

2. Yuan Devaluations, if USD is deemed too strong for export3. Deleveraging, Equity market down spikes


Personal Finances - Play Great Defence for 2016/7

1. There is a highly dubious Central Banking Cartel running the Global Financial System2. They have configured a money printing, interest rate suppression environment, leading

for now to ZIRP/NIRP3. This a barely functional economic depression, pumped up with cheap money and

becoming more and more immune to the few stimulants on offer4. A ‘megalothon’ of a reset awaits


Personal Finances- Play Great Defence for 2016/7

Best Defence:

1. Be Highly Liquid, 2. High Cash levels, 3. Including Physical Cash at close reach. 4. Stay within deposit guarantee maximums on UK Banks5. If required contemplate, multiple bank accounts in different geographic jurisdictions –

recommend Singapore, Switzerland, Uruguay – Australia/New Zealand6. Be Debt free, If not..


Great Defence for 2016/7

7. If not Debt free, be ‘Variable rate’ debt free, or light as possible and continue to reduce as a prelude to cash hoarding, run concurrently, rather than just 100% retiring debt.

8. Gold & Silver = The Anti-Central Bankers Currency. 9. Precious Metals is a, ‘declining faith’ in system, asset10.Show a higher propensity to short Individual equities:

a) Where Bear Trend is already establishedb) Especially, midcap & medium sized companiesc) In unfavoured Industriesd) With suitable liquidity meaning Market Cap £350 Million/$500 Million Minimum,

preferably larger11. In Equities Maintain a 1 long, to 2 or 3 Shorts trade ratio [1:3 - Long:Short Trade ratio]


Central Bankers, don’t work for you!

‘But the SNB is 45 per cent owned by private shareholders, many of whom are individuals, who receive dividends from the SNB. The rest is owned by the cantons, which have been complaining recently about insufficient cash transfers from the SNB.’

The FT after the event, having not predicted it:

The SNB’s repeated pledges to intervene in unlimited quantities to enforce the euro peg were always subject to political risk and, in retrospect, likely to prove hollow

The FT Article post event here:

FT Article post SNB walking away from 1.20 EURCHF Floor

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2015/01/18/the-swiss-currency-bombshell-cause-and-effect/



Learn one thing from our bring forward date on the EURCHF Floor collapse.

Central Bankers:

1. Don’t consider that they work for you, they seek to contain you2. They will tell you what you need to hear, so that ‘You keep calm and carry on’ whilst they

serve the agenda of their primary backers3. This may include being intentionally or knowingly evasive, with responses and full of ‘lawyer

speak’4. Treat them with suspicion



You can not just ‘Survive but Thrive’ if you:

1. Take control of your personal finances & trading2. You prepare intelligently3. You invest wisely in your trading education

i. Learn, Share & Develop – few of us are complete, solely sustained tradersii. Attain an edgeiii. Specialiseiv. Be mentoredv. Be part of an online community of like-mindedvi. When are you ready for that deep shift, in your trading?vii. Bend the Xmas credit card or begin your defence of family now going into 2016


Exploit the following 2016/7

I specialise in supporting retails traders in achieving a deep shift in their trading, some of what you will learn:

i. Trend - To understand Timeframes, Including The Macro to Micro & always be trading with the flow

ii. Specialist – Become good in doing one single thing, very welliii. Sniper - To be selective, high value trades [RRR] iv. Longevity – A ‘Set & Forget Strategy’, allows you to work, be outdoors & be available to othersv. The Gift of the Pinch – Trade volatility set ups that allow for the unique moment where tights

stops can exist, extranormal RRR are possible & the correct trades move briskly away from your stop


Learn to Exploit the following 2016/7

vi. Emotional Comfort – Bad trades closed early, winners are held for an extended time, Targets see to regular ‘banks’ at key stall points

vii. 360 degree development - Watch all forms of your technical trading improve, including psychological & emotional elements

viii.TEAM – be part of a tribe of equals, all seeking to do the same thingix. Multiply don’t Add = ‘How to Pig out’ – Learn to have Quantum leap gains within the confines of

Money managementx. Tools - Provide you with a Hunt Volatility Funnel Draw Toolxi. Advanced Techniques – Patterns within Patterns – Primers, Wind ups & Boostersxii. Abundance of set ups - Show you ways you can find multiple set ups quickly360 degree

developmentxiii.Enjoy – Learn to love the process, community and winning with others


Secure your Primer slots open from 26th December for our New, Revised Trading

Metamorphosis Program for 2016!Get Access to our VPN Mentoring & Membership area upon reservation.

Start our 24 hours of modular Primer material in advance of Theory weekend 23rd January 2016

26th December 2015

Details for The Trading Metamorphosis Program

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/hvf-trading-metamorphosis-program-6-month-program-tickets-19441166051


Contact or follow:

Twitter - @TheMarketSniperYouTube/LinkedIn – Francis Hunt

Skype – ‘FrancoFXTrader’Email – [email protected]

[usually [email protected] but temporary issue]

26th December 2015

Details for The Trading Metamorphosis Program

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/hvf-trading-metamorphosis-program-6-month-program-tickets-19441166051

A free resource, become part of the 9%

http://tradersecretmasterkeys.co.uk/webinar/webinar-register.php?

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

trade positioning for 2016' - 15.12.15 - round the clock trader addended

Economy & Finance