trade in the trump administration and nafta re-negotiations · administration and nafta...
TRANSCRIPT
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TRADE IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ANDNAFTA RE-NEGOTIATIONS
Steve Lamar, Executive Vice President, AAFA
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About AAFA
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Clothes, Shoes, and Travel
Goods47%Other Products
53%
Allocation of U.S. Import Duties Collected by U.S. Government - 2016
Source: USITCTotal Duties Collected: $32.4 billion
Clothes, Shoes, and Travel
Goods5%
Other Products95%
Allocation of U.S. Imports by Import Value
Source: USITCTotal Imports: $2.16 trillion
Apparel, Footwear, and Travel Goods - Tariffs
Clothes, Shoes, and Travel Goods Account for 5% of All U.S. Imports Yet Generate 47% of All
U.S. Duties Collected
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Trade Policy (1)• Trade Policy Review/Overhaul/Studies
• Trade Remedies• Ex. Steel/Aluminum Section 232
• Enforcement• Ex. China IPR Section 301
• Buy American
• Trade Agreements Review• NAFTA• KORUS
• Focus on • Lowering Trade Deficits, • Increasing Enforcement, & • Growing U.S. Exports
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Trade Policy (2)
• Generalized System of Preferences (GSP)
• GSP Footwear
• Miscellaneous Tariff Bill (MTB)
• Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA)
• African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
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NAFTA: Terminate or Negotiate
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NAFTA - TPA Timeline
You AreHere
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Negotiation Next Steps?• First Round – Washington, DC (August 14-18)• Second Round – Mexico City (September 1-5)• Third Round – Ottawa (September 23-27)• Fourth Round – Washington, DC (October 18-24)• Fifth Round – Mexico City (November 17-21)• Sixth Round – Washington, DC (December?)
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What Does NAFTA 2.0 Look Like?
Modernization TrumpTraditional
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• ROO• TPL• Short Supply• Chapter Notes• Other
• Customs
• Safeguards
Issues at Stake
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What Should Happen?• Do No Harm
• Keep It Trilateral
• Make It Seamless
• Make NAFTA Work Better
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How American Are Your Mexican Jeans?
Labels/PackagingMade In:CA, NC, NJ, VA, PA, OH, FL
ZippersMade In:GA, NC, CA
YarnSpun In:NC, SC, GA
Sewing ThreadSpun In: NC, GA
CottonGrown In: 17 states, stretching from Virginia to California
DenimWoven In:NC, TX, GA
PocketingMade In:NC, SC, MS, GA
Buttons, Rivets, SnapsMade In:KY, GA
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U.S. Apparel Import Snapshot
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Index of Apparel Imports (2000 to 2017)2000 = 1
ROW
NAFTA
CAFTA-DR
Source: OTEXA
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U.S. Textile Export Snapshot
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. Textile Exports to NAFTA/CAFTA(billions of U.S. dollars)
Source: OTEXA
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Why Seamless Matters
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Effe
ctiv
e Ra
te (D
utie
s/Cu
stom
s Va
lue)
Effective Duty Rate of U.S. Apparel Imports From Colombia2012 (by month)
Colombia FTA Turns OnATPDEA Turns Off
Source: USITC
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Four Scenarios• Withdrawal and Termination
• Withdrawal
• Changes
• Status Quo