trade higher on broiler meat and beef demand · oceania: australia and new zealand are recovering...
TRANSCRIPT
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
October 2010
2011 Forecast: Trade Higher on Broiler Meat and Beef Demand
World Meat Trade
Beef & Veall
Pork
Broiler Meat
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)Year
Mill
ion
Met
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ons
(CW
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Broiler Meat: Exports are forecast moderately higher. Both the United States and Brazil have ample supplies and market access to satisfy rising imports by Russia, the Middle East and a number of markets in Asia. The strongest import growth is expected in Russia where the United States, its leading supplier, is expected to fill the tariff rate quota. Beef: Exports are forecast to rise, reversing the trend of recent years. Production expansion by South America and India is expected to more than offset declines in North America and Oceania. However, growth in world trade continues to be constrained by tight supplies and Sanitary/Phytosanitary (SPS) restrictions. Imports in a number of countries are forecast higher as domestic supplies are tight. Also, continued economic recovery is expected to bolster Asian imports. Pork: Exports are forecast just short of the record set in 2008. More competitive U.S. and Brazilian pork is expected to displace EU shipments, where rising costs of production result in lower exportable supplies. Global demand is expected to be slightly stronger with contracting Canadian production offset by larger imports and improving economic conditions stimulate Asian demand.
Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of October 8, 2010
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
October 2010
Contents
Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 2011 Forecast Overviews
Beef Pork Poultry Turkey
Summary Tables Beef Summary Table Pork Summary Table
Broiler Meat Summary Table Turkey Meat Summary Table
Cattle Summary Table Swine Summary Table
Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected Countries
Beef Pork
Broiler
Notes to Readers
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)
Percent Change 2010 to
2011
Beef and Veal /1 57,731 58,558 58,522 57,431 56,763 56,663 -0.2%
Pork /1 95,723 94,258 98,042 100,473 101,507 103,392 1.9%
Broiler and Turkey /2 69,459 73,589 76,904 77,031 79,427 81,254 2.3%
Total 222,913 226,405 233,468 234,935 237,697 241,309 1.5%
Beef and Veal /1 56,974 58,073 57,897 56,742 56,437 56,371 -0.1%
Pork /1 95,453 94,091 98,150 100,341 101,126 103,115 2.0%
Broiler & Turkey /2 69,252 73,259 75,949 76,247 78,170 80,064 2.4%
Total 221,679 225,423 231,996 233,330 235,733 239,550 1.6%
Beef and Veal /1 6,815 7,158 6,899 6,696 6,878 7,100 3.2%
Pork /1 4,885 5,071 6,195 5,511 5,645 5,805 2.8%
Broiler and Turkey /2 6,846 7,561 8,268 7,988 7,951 8,339 4.9%
Total 18,546 19,790 21,362 20,195 20,474 21,244 3.8%
Beef and Veal /1 7,502 7,570 7,490 7,322 7,253 7,408 2.1%
Pork /1 5,225 5,162 6,149 5,641 6,052 6,068 0.3%
Broiler and Turkey /2 7,113 7,957 9,069 8,980 9,210 9,494 3.1%
Total 19,840 20,689 22,708 21,943 22,515 22,970 2.0%
Beef and Veal /1 519 650 856 878 1,036 1,002 -3.3%
Pork /1 1,359 1,425 2,117 1,857 2,027 2,121 4.6%
Broiler and Turkey /2 2,609 2,926 3,464 3,335 3,182 3,265 2.6%
Total 4,487 5,001 6,437 6,070 6,245 6,388 2.3%
Beef and Veal /1 7% 9% 11% 12% 14% 14%
Pork /1 26% 28% 34% 33% 33% 35%
Broiler and Turkey /2 37% 37% 38% 37% 35% 34%
Combined 23% 24% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
forecast
Imports
Exports
U.S. Exports
Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry
Production
Consumption
Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.
1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
BEEF AND VEAL: 2011 FORECAST OVERVIEW CATTLE: Among major beef exporters, significant cattle herd expansion is forecast only for Brazil (3 percent), Australia (2 percent) and Argentina (2 percent) in 2011 with tempered gains by New Zealand (1 percent) and Uruguay (1 percent). The total of global cattle ending inventories (of countries continuously included in the PSD database) will rise as significant gains in these major exports outweigh moderate declines in many, but not all, other countries. Major beef importers, with the exception of South Korea, are forecast to continue their long term trend of declining cattle inventories.
Cattle Herds in Brazil and India Have Grown Long Term...
0
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300
350
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 (f)
Year
Tota
l Cat
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egin
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Sto
cks
Mill
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Hea
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Brazil India ...While Other Major Beef Exporters Stagnated or Declined
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20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 (f)
Year
Tota
l Cat
tle B
egin
ning
Sto
cks
M
illio
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Argentina Australia EU-27 United StatesUruguay Canada New Zealand
SOUTH AMERICA: The historical expansion in the South American herd continues to be led by Brazil and Columbia which outweighed recent contractions in Argentina and Venezuela.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Over the past decade, Brazil’s cattle herd has expanded to support increased domestic and export demand. However, the decline in exports to the EU in 2008, from which Brazil has yet to recover, and constraints in shipments to Russia have impacted beef demand and the rate of increase in calf crop production slowed.
Brazil: As Beef Demand Cooled, Calf Crop Stagnated
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(p)
2011(f)Year
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Mill
ion
Head
Beef Exports Calf Crop
Current and expected firm cattle prices are expected to encourage Argentine producers to begin rebuilding depleted herds in 2011. Although the current forecast calls for a rise in the calf crop, smaller beginning inventories and cow retention will contribute to a drop in slaughter, which will shrink supplies for both export and domestic consumption in 2011. While more normal weather conditions have returned, government policies continue to slow sectoral investment, curtailing stronger expansion. Argentina began 2010 with sharply lower beginning inventories following a reduced calf crop and high slaughter in 2009 due to drought (which perpetuated continued high slaughter of cows) and government policies (which discouraged investment). The high profitability of field crops has resulted in the conversion of several million acres of pasture over the past five years and consequently feedlot production expanded to currently account for about 40 percent of slaughter. However, expected low returns due to unused capacity, an increase in government-mandated minimum slaughter weights, and the termination of subsidies is expected to adversely impact commercial feedlot production in 2011.
Argentina Forecast to Rebuild
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)Year
Mill
ion
Head
EndingInventories
Production(Calf Crop)
Slaughter
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
OCEANIA: Australia and New Zealand are recovering from drought supporting increased cattle production. Herds in New Zealand are forecast to increase after declining in the previous year. Stronger forecast dairy and beef prices in 2010 are expected to support producer returns, leading to higher breeding herd retention. Similarly, prospects for the Australian cattle industry have been remarkably transformed due to improved weather conditions experienced over the calendar year to date. Heavy rainfalls have dramatically improved soil moisture and pasture conditions as well as water storage levels. Since the return of more normal weather conditions, a surge in cattle inventories has already been recorded. Increases in ending inventories for 2010 and 2011 are forecast as producers withhold stock from slaughter for breeding purposes. This retention will put downward pressure on slaughter and thus beef production and exports; albeit somewhat constrained by higher weights due to improved conditions. Ending inventory for 2011 would be the highest since 1977. NORTH AMERICA: U.S. inventories are forecast to decline again in 2011. Inventories have been declining since 2007 and higher cow slaughter and low breeding herd retention has precluded expansion. Although cow slaughter is expected to decline in 2011, current incentives to place heifers in feedlots rather than retain them for breeding is expected to preclude growth of the calf crop in 2011. Cattle inventories are expected to decline to 92 million head by the end of 2011. Continuing the downward trend of recent years, the Canadian herd is forecast to end 2011 with lower inventories due to fewer beef cows and relatively low heifer retention. The calf crop is forecast to decline for the 6th consecutive year. OTHER MAJOR BEEF EXPORTERS: India’s herd will remain relatively unchanged in 2011 despite marginally higher slaughter, due to a rising calf crop as producers keep cows in milk production. Dairy is the main driver of the livestock sector and its increasing milk products shortage is stimulating medium term growth in cattle and buffalo stocks.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
BEEF: World Production Virtually Unchanged; Marked by Tight Supplies Among major producers, only Brazil, India and Mexico are forecast to expand beef production. However their growth, ranging from 2 to 3 percent, will not outweigh declines in other countries, resulting in another year of anticipated tight global supplies. For many key producers, reduced inventories are forecast to depress slaughter resulting in lower or unchanged beef production. Brazil and India Forge Ahead and Expand: A forecast increase in slaughter and trend towards higher weights is expected to raise Brazilian production. Brazil, like India, is one of the few countries with expanding inventories available for slaughter. Both are also countries which have strong and/or rising domestic demand while 2011 will exports account for 19 to 25 percent of production, respectively. Declining Herds Generate Lower North American Production: In the cases of the United States (the world’s leading beef producer) and Canada, declining cow inventories and calf crops over the past several years, are forecast to result in smaller pools of cattle available for slaughter. U.S. cattle imports are also expected lower, which will depress slaughter. However, Mexican production, driven by rebounding consumption, will not outweigh falling inventories in other NAFTA countries. Oceania: Improved Conditions Not Forecast To Translate Into Increased Production: Production is forecast lower on declining slaughter in Australia and New Zealand combined with expected lower average carcass weights as the mix of cattle slaughter changes. Feed Availability and Costs Constrain Other Major Producers: Higher feed costs and slow recovery of the EU economy are forecast to keep production unchanged. Similarly high feed and other input costs will continue to dampen Chinese production. Drought and elevated feed costs/shortages are also expected to constrain Russian production. Production by Japan and Korea, Key Asian Importers, Treading Water or Rising: Japanese production is forecast relatively flat on slightly lower slaughter due to weak demand for higher priced domestic beef in a slow economic recovery. The Miyazki FMD (Foot and Mouth Disease) outbreak will not have any significant impact on the coming year. Korean production is forecast significantly higher, up 11 percent. Live Hanwoo cattle prices are expected to continue to decline, although they are still relatively high compared to 2008 and most of 2009. Domestic cattle prices are depressed as economic uncertainty impacts consumption, confidence in imported beef is up, and the butcher shop restaurant business has slowed. In response to softer prices, slaughter is forecast though higher as producers cut inventories. Despite the expected increase in slaughter, ending cattle inventories will be higher due to strong growth in the calf crop.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Trade: Demand Higher But Tight Exportable Supplies Constrain Growth Exports in 2011 are forecast to rise 2 percent, reversing the downward trend of recent years. Demand is generally rising slightly in most key markets, but is constrained by tight exportable supplies, high prices and SPS restrictions. IMPORTS Limited Growth Opportunities in Korea, Japan and Russia Korean consumption is forecast to rise generating opportunities for imports, but high domestic and international prices are expected to dampen further growth. Continuing economic recovery is forcing consumers to increase consumption of imported cuts. Local retail beef prices are generally two to two and a half times more expensive than imported beef which should favor demand for imported beef. Further, concerns over imported U.S. beef have dissipated with the United States currently holding about 30 percent of the market. The implementation of a traceability system and strict country-of-origin labeling requirements in restaurants, as well as marketing, has helped restore consumer confidence in imports. With Japanese consumption and domestic production forecast unchanged, little import growth is forecast. This increase may be largely captured by Australia due in part to its competitive prices. U.S. supplies are constrained by Japanese imposed BSE-related age restrictions. Due to declining production, slightly higher imports are needed to maintain Russian consumption, which is forecast to remain below the 2008 level. Shipments are expected to exceed the tariff rate quota. Mixed Results in North America With production expected to decline and a strong dollar vis a vis the U.S. dollar, Canadian imports are forecast higher. However, Mexican imports are forecast lower as increased production will exceed slightly higher consumption. Declining U.S. production and economic recovery will push imports higher, although severely constrained by tight supplies out of Oceania and Canada. Other Markets Continue to Expand Venezuelan imports remain strong and is forecast slightly higher as production continues to be decline, albeit at a slower rate. Personal and legal insecurity, high inflation (of input costs), low controlled meat prices and reduced investment constrain production. Consequently, imported meat accounts for about one-third of domestic supplies. That does not account for imports of live cattle which account for about two-thirds of domestic slaughter. Thus, imported meat and cattle account for an estimated 75 percent of Venezuelan beef supplies. As a result, even slight changes in consumption, bilateral relations and prices can have a significant impact on the import forecast. Iranian imports, largely from Brazil although also some smaller shipments from India, more than doubled in 2010. Growth in 2011 is expected to be relatively small with more modestly higher consumption. Imports are rising not off declining production but rather as a result of increasing consumption.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Egyptian imports are forecast to continue to grow as an improving economy stimulates meat consumption to return to expand and domestic production is unable to keep pace. Higher beef prices spurred cow slaughter in 2010, depleting supplies of cattle available for slaughter, which will not be replaced by higher imports of live cattle. Although consumers prefer beef to other meats, they also prefer fresh domestic beef. However, since much is consumed in stew-type dishes, price is often a driving factor in purchasing decisions. Thus, lower-income consumers are more willing to consume imported frozen beef. No Growth in EU Imports As EU beef production declines slightly, imports will be unchanged as they are constrained by limited supplies from major traders and the weak Euro. Higher domestic prices and the recession caused lower as consumption has shifted to lower-priced cuts, such as ground beef, and alternatives such as poultry. EXPORTS As a result of production declines in many key exporting countries, only Brazil and to a much lesser degree India, Paraguay and Uruguay have the available supplies to expand exports. Forecast Growth in Indian and South American Supplies Support Higher Demand Brazil is forecast to rise exports 8 percent, benefiting from small increases across a wide swath of countries including the EU, Egypt, Russia and Venezuela. As the only major trader with larger available supplies, it could capture rising demand in much of the world, as well as benefit from unchanged or lower supplies by key traders such as Argentina. The Paraguayan and Uruguayan situations are parallel, but with substantially smaller herds are not able to increase shipments as significantly. Indian exports are forecast slightly higher in 2011 but are constrained largely by limited market access, compared to South America, and also exports carabeef (from water buffalo) compared to traditional beef (from cattle). Tight Supplies Constrain The United States, Canada and Oceania The United States, with significantly reduced production (2 percent), is forecast to experience its first decline in exports since 2004. However, exports as a share of production will remain at about 9 percent. Exports to Asia are expected to remain strong. While Australian exports are forecast unchanged, shipments to key Asian markets will remain at same or higher levels. New Zealand shipments are forecast to drop on lower supplies, likely resulting in reduced shipments to Japan and Korea, although higher shipments to the United States. Canadian exports are forecast a modest 1 percent higher as tight supplies in the United States coupled with economic recovery, resilient demand in Asia and high world prices support increased trade. However, lower meat production and a stronger dollar could impair their comparative advantage.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
PORK AND SWINE: 2011 FORECAST OVERVIEW Slight Growth in World Pork Production, Likely Tempered by Higher Feed Costs World pork production is forecast to rise about 2 percent to 103.4 million tons with China accounting for 80 percent of the increase. Modest production gains are also expected in the United States and Brazil, as higher feed prices are expected to temper growth throughout the world.
Chinese Pork Production Rising, Rest of World Flat
China
Rest of World
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China: Production is forecast to grow by 3 percent to a record 51.5 million tons. The vast majority of the growth is expected to come from large-scale operations, supported by government subsidies. Production in the first part of the year will likely be weaker than during the same period in 2010, as ongoing disease problems and the end of government sow subsidies are expected to result in lower sow stocks at the beginning of the year. Production is expected to pick up later in the year, but could be tempered by higher feed costs. United States: Production is forecast up nearly 2 percent to 10.2 million tons as high feed prices are expected to keep the growth in sow farrowing modest and dampen hog weights. However, strong demand for swine will likely result in a 3 percent growth in imports from Canada. Brazil: Production is forecast up 3 percent to about 3.3 million tons, bolstered by strong domestic demand as pork prices are expected to remain competitive with beef. Although concerns remain about credit and the value of the Brazilian real, export optimism is helping support production plans. EU: Production is virtually flat at 22.1 million tons as a result of rising feed and investment costs. Greater competition on the world pork market and easing domestic demand is forecast to pressure carcass and piglet prices. A large percentage of pig farms do not yet comply with the EU environmental and animal welfare requirements that will enter into force in 2013, likely raising sectoral costs. Canada: Production is forecast 2 percent lower at 1.7 million tons, as the downsizing of the Canadian industry continues. After a number of years of continued decline in swine inventories, pig production will remain at low levels. This will translate into lower meat production and a potentially tight market as domestic demand picks up. Nonetheless, given lower production, per capita consumption is
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
expected to continue its 5 year downward trend. However, producers are expected to have a difficult time taking advantage of higher pig prices and tight supplies due in part to limited financing for expansion and increasingly stringent environmental regulations. Additionally, higher feed costs could result in lower slaughter weights, potentially further reducing Canadian pork production. World Pork Exports Flat as EU Loses Export Share to the United States and Brazil The world export forecast is virtually flat, although significant shifts are expected to take place between major suppliers.
United States Gains Export Share from EU
United States
EU-27
Canada
Brazil
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)Year
Shar
e of
Exp
orts
EU: Exports are forecast to drop 9 percent to 1.6 million tons as a result of increased competition, particularly from the United States and Brazil. In addition, domestic supplies are expected to fall due to shrinking margins from higher feed prices and EU legislation that requires additional investment. United States: Exports are forecast 5 percent higher at 2.1 million tons, with market share expanding in Asian markets (Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea) greater Canadian imports. Mexico is expected to continue growing in importance, although at a slower rate than before. China: Exports are forecast higher due to stronger demand from traditional markets, Hong Kong, Japan, and Kyrgyzstan. Cooked pork products typically account for nearly half of the exports to those markets. Brazil: Exports are expected to rebound slightly on stronger demand from Brazil’s major markets. While strategically focusing on new markets in Asia, such as China, the government has begun to advocate for access to the United States and Mexico. Although the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil’s largest pork producing state, has been recognized as free of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), pork processors have not yet been approved for export to the United States.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Modest Import Growth as Strong Global Demand Meets Limited Supplies Imports are forecast higher based on significantly higher purchases by key North American and Asian markets, as well as modest growth in virtually all other markets. Canada: Imports are forecast to rise 15 percent to 230,000 tons on lower domestic production and greater consumer demand following the recession. South Korea: Imports are forecast 8 percent higher to 410,000 tons in response to rising consumer demand. Improving economic conditions are expected to result in greater restaurant consumption, where imported pork is widely used. Greater imports paired with larger domestic production is expected to result in nearly a third of a kilogram increase in per capita pork consumption. China: Imports are forecast up 6 percent, yet will account for only 1 percent of consumption and remain below the 2008 record. United States: Imports are expected to be 3 percent higher on tight supplies and stronger domestic demand.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
BROILER MEAT: 2011 FORECAST OVERVIEW PRODUCTION:
Production is forecast up 2 percent to a record 76.2 million tons and is supported by record levels from all top producing countries. Strong domestic demand and, to a lesser extent, rising exports, will fuel production growth in many countries, as is the absence of major disease outbreaks. However, as 2011 progresses, rising grain prices may adversely impact production.
Record World Broiler Meat Production
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2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)Year
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Production by the world’s leading broiler producer, the United States, is forecast less than 2 percent higher at 16.6 million tons, although that rate of growth may be tempered by high feed grain prices. Stronger domestic demand and recovering foreign demand will support expansion. U.S. per capita consumption continues to rebound, building on the recovery that began in 2010 with tight supplies of red meats, particularly beef, consumers are expected to shift to lower-priced meat products like versatile broiler meat.
China’s production is expected to increase almost 4 percent to 13 million tons as strong demand and high prices encourage expansion. However, that expansion may be constrained by high feed costs, particularly corn, which accounts for about 60 percent of broiler feed. Fewer outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, more standardized operations and changing structure will improve productivity.
Growth Continues at a Slower Rate:
Brazilian production is forecast up on both strong domestic and foreign demand while Mexican production is up on strong domestic demand. Per capita consumption for both countries is expected to rise, accounting for a larger portion of total meat consumption. Price competitiveness and improved purchasing power will bolster domestic demand. Higher production levels in Mexico will also be fueled by greater use in processed products, although rising grain prices may slow growth as feed accounts for a major portion of costs.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Annual Production Percent Changes
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)
Brazil Mexico
Government Interventions Affect Industry
Russian production is forecast to continue expanding, although more slowly than in recent years. Rising feed costs are expected to squeeze returns, although the government’s commitment to support long-term production expansion will likely assure continued profits. Large enterprises dominate the industry and government loan subsidies will continue to favor them over small producers.
Production in Argentina is forecast to jump 9 percent as a sharp decline in beef production, generating a shortfall in animal protein supplies, is expected to cause an increase in poultry demand. Thus, rising broiler meat consumption would capture a growing share of total meat consumption. As broiler meat is not subject to the same production and export regulations constraining the cattle sector, production can also expand to benefit investors seeking export-orientated revenue.
EU production is forecast slightly higher as elevated grain prices constrain growth. Rising domestic, rather than foreign, demand will support marginal production gains. The full impact on the industry’s competitiveness due to recently implemented animal welfare regulations, which limit stocking density, is yet to be assessed, but generally expected to adversely affect profits.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
TRADE:
Exports are forecast 3 percent higher to a record of nearly 9 million tons due a reduction in SPS barriers, as well as economic growth and recovery. Expansion is fuelled by demand from virtually all major and emerging markets, and both the United States and Brazil will benefit as major suppliers.
The United States and Brazil are forecast to account for over 70 percent of exports by major traders. The combined share of trade by these two exporters is expected to be slightly less than 5 years ago.
Brazil and U.S. Dominate World Trade
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 (f)Brazil United States
United States and Brazil Grow at Same Pace (3 Percent):
U.S. exports are forecast at 3.0 million tons; reversing the recent downward trend.
• The strongest growth is expected in shipments to Russia as the United States is expected to fill its tariff rate quota allocation set at 446,400 metric tons. Despite strong domestic production, its imports are expected to rise on resolution of SPS issues.
• As its main supplier, the United States will also benefit from a forecasted rise in Mexican imports. Raw material demand from the food processing industry is growing as consumption patterns mature due to rising incomes and urbanization.
Brazil remains the leading exporter, with growth expected at 3 percent, relatively on par with the past three years.
• Growth is primarily due to robust demand by Middle East markets as rising incomes and economic expansion stimulate imports by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.
• Shipments to China are likely to increase, but are not expected to fully replace U.S. product displaced by anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
• Emphasis on emerging markets will continue to fuel expansion.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
EU Exports Stagnate While Argentina, China, and Thailand Rise
EU exports are forecast to stagnate due to lack of competitiveness and relatively tight exportable supplies.
Robust Argentine growth continues unfettered as exports are not constrained by government restrictions. However, as increased shipments are mostly to meat deficit Venezuela.
China and Thailand are expected to expand exports, particularly to other Asian markets. Shipments are largely limited to prepared/preserved products because of SPS restrictions.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
TURKEY MEAT: 2011 FORECAST OVERVIEW Production: • World production is forecast to be relatively flat. • A minor increase in Brazil will mostly outweigh a slight decline in the EU. • U.S. production is forecast relatively flat and EU production is forecast to decline
slightly as higher feed costs dampen expansion. Trade: • World trade is forecast to remain virtually unchanged. • U.S. exports are expected are expected to remain stable, while EU exports are
forecast to decline on tighter supplies.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Beef and Veal Selected Countries
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Production
9,4109,1458,9359,0249,3039,025 Brazil
7,8507,8707,9008,0908,1888,150 EU-27
5,4505,5505,7646,1326,1345,767 China
2,9202,8502,7502,6502,4132,375 India
2,5502,6003,3753,1503,3003,100 Argentina
2,0502,0802,1292,1592,1722,183 Australia
1,7751,7311,7001,6671,6001,550 Mexico
1,4501,4861,4571,3881,3441,300 Pakistan
1,2751,2851,2551,2881,2781,329 Canada
1,2701,3001,2901,3151,3701,430 Russia
9,1079,0388,9859,4969,3599,542 Others
45,10744,93545,54046,35946,46145,751 Total Foreign
11,55611,82811,89112,16312,09711,980 United States
56,66356,76357,43158,52258,55857,731 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
8,1808,2008,2498,3528,6908,649 EU-27
7,6457,5107,3747,2527,1446,969 Brazil
5,4415,5285,7496,0806,0655,692 China
2,2552,3032,7222,7312,7712,553 Argentina
2,2162,2352,1772,4412,3922,361 Russia
2,1952,1502,1411,9781,7351,694 India
2,0332,0061,9712,0331,9611,894 Mexico
1,4601,4961,4611,3941,3631,333 Pakistan
1,2101,2071,2101,1731,1821,159 Japan
9959971,0191,0351,0681,023 Canada
11,02610,87310,43010,97610,87210,814 Others
44,65644,50544,50345,44545,24344,141 Total Foreign
11,71511,93212,23912,45212,83012,833 United States
56,37156,43756,74257,89758,07356,974 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.
2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Imports
9509408951,1371,030939 Russia
704695697659686678 Japan
490490497466642717 EU-27
350345315295308298 Korea, South
330335322408403383 Mexico
30529513213110393 Iran
2902752702009029 Vietnam
245235247230242180 Canada
2152001541189089 Hong Kong
210190180166293292 Egypt
1,8591,7521,7961,9381,8871,718 Others
5,9485,7525,5055,7485,7745,416 Total Foreign
1,1521,1261,1911,1511,3841,399 United States
7,1006,8786,6966,8997,1586,815 Total
none
Total Exports
1,8101,6751,5961,8012,1892,084 Brazil
1,3251,3251,3641,4071,4001,430 Australia
725700609672678681 India
530525480494457477 Canada
496510514533496530 New Zealand
390380376361385460 Uruguay
310290254233206240 Paraguay
300300655423534552 Argentina
160160148204140218 EU-27
115115101898368 Nicaragua
245237347417352243 Others
6,4066,2176,4446,6346,9206,983 Total Foreign
1,0021,036878856650519 United States
7,4087,2537,3227,4907,5707,502 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.
2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Production
51,50050,00048,90546,20542,87846,505 China
22,12022,25022,15922,59622,85821,791 EU-27
3,2603,1703,1303,0152,9902,830 Brazil
2,3102,2702,2052,0601,9101,805 Russia
1,9001,8701,8501,8501,8321,713 Vietnam
1,7201,7501,7891,7861,7461,748 Canada
1,2901,2801,3101,2491,2501,247 Japan
1,2601,2551,2401,2251,2501,215 Philippines
1,1841,1611,1621,1611,1521,109 Mexico
1,1401,0971,0621,0561,0431,000 Korea, South
5,5045,3525,2195,2405,3875,201 Others
93,18891,45590,03187,44384,29686,164 Total Foreign
10,20410,05210,44210,5999,9629,559 United States
103,392101,507100,47398,04294,25895,723 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
51,59050,05048,82346,69142,71046,014 China
20,60020,58020,78221,02421,50720,631 EU-27
3,1593,1193,0493,1122,8032,639 Russia
2,6202,5452,4232,3902,2602,191 Brazil
2,4442,4372,4672,4862,4732,452 Japan
1,9001,8671,8761,8801,8551,731 Vietnam
1,7891,7661,7701,6051,5231,489 Mexico
1,5501,5241,4801,5191,5021,420 Korea, South
1,3601,3801,2981,2701,2751,239 Philippines
840770713828715585 Ukraine
6,7786,6606,6476,5396,5036,419 Others
94,63092,69891,32889,34485,12686,810 Total Foreign
8,4858,4289,0138,8068,9658,643 United States
103,115101,126100,34198,15094,09195,453 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Imports
1,1571,1501,1381,2671,2101,154 Japan
8508508451,053894835 Russia
690685678535451446 Mexico
410380390430447410 Korea, South
380370369346302277 Hong Kong
37035027070918253 China
230200180194171146 Canada
205195176152141109 Australia
1101201862388262 Ukraine
10012559462624 Philippines
906835842848726920 Others
5,4085,2605,1335,8184,6324,436 Total Foreign
397385378377439449 United States
5,8055,6455,5116,1955,0714,885 Total
none
Total Exports
1,5501,7001,4151,7271,2861,285 EU-27
1,1751,1651,1231,1291,0331,081 Canada
640625707625730639 Brazil
280250232223350544 China
140130152142148130 Chile
858070918066 Mexico
403940485460 Australia
151313111920 Vietnam
663126 Norway
444411 South Africa
121325313434 Others
3,9474,0253,7844,0323,7373,866 Total Foreign
2,1212,0271,8572,1171,4251,359 United States
6,0686,0525,6416,1495,1625,225 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Production
13,00012,55012,10011,84011,29110,350 China
11,75011,42011,02311,03310,3059,355 Brazil
9,0008,9208,7568,5948,3207,740 EU-27
2,8502,8092,7812,8532,6832,592 Mexico
2,7002,6502,5502,4902,2402,000 India
2,1252,0001,7901,5501,3501,180 Russia
1,8001,6501,5001,4301,3201,200 Argentina
1,6501,6001,5251,4501,4231,327 Iran
1,3801,2801,2001,1701,0501,100 Thailand
1,3001,2901,2501,2401,1591,113 South Africa
12,01711,88911,59411,35811,08410,609 Others
59,57258,05856,06955,00852,22548,566 Total Foreign
16,63716,34815,93516,56116,22615,930 United States
76,20974,40672,00471,56968,45164,496 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
12,89012,49612,21011,95411,41510,371 China
8,8708,7608,6928,5648,3587,656 EU-27
8,3018,0717,8027,7927,3846,853 Brazil
3,3883,3243,2643,2813,0613,010 Mexico
2,7202,4662,7182,6952,5782,373 Russia
2,6992,6492,5492,4892,2392,000 India
2,0352,0201,9781,9261,9451,970 Japan
1,6801,6301,5361,4601,4641,326 Iran
1,5151,4961,4431,4281,3941,369 South Africa
1,5051,4051,3271,2701,2001,109 Argentina
15,95415,57914,86914,57013,62212,677 Others
61,55759,89658,38857,42954,66050,714 Total Foreign
13,67013,42612,94013,42813,58213,671 United States
75,22773,32271,32870,85768,24264,385 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Imports
760745645737696716 Japan
710680719712673605 EU-27
680630604510470423 Saudi Arabia
6004759131,1591,2221,189 Russia
550525492433380419 Mexico
340330368211176119 Iraq
325280253236215243 Hong Kong
315305297289238182 United Arab Emirates
300326401399482343 China
300275181352163124 Venezuela
3,0762,9932,7122,7152,3421,991 Others
7,9567,5647,5857,7537,0576,354 Total Foreign
443839362821 United States
8,0007,6027,6247,7897,0856,375 Total
none
Total Exports
3,4503,3503,2223,2422,9222,502 Brazil
840840783742635689 EU-27
440410379383296261 Thailand
410380291285358322 China
30025017816412594 Argentina
155150147152139110 Canada
707087633964 Chile
707070706038 Kuwait
303030272516 Australia
303030303010 United Arab Emirates
143151133987485 Others
5,9385,7315,3505,2564,7034,191 Total Foreign
3,0162,9353,0933,1572,6782,361 United States
8,9548,6668,4438,4137,3816,552 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Production
1,7951,8151,7951,8301,7901,858 EU-27
510485466465458353 Brazil
167165167180170163 Canada
554540372519 Russia
151311151514 Mexico
888775 South Africa
665554 China
nrnrnrnr44 Others
2,5562,5372,4922,5392,4742,420 Total Foreign
2,4892,4842,5352,7962,6642,543 United States
5,0455,0215,0275,3355,1384,963 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
1,8051,8201,8011,8351,7691,841 EU-27
345321302261281197 Brazil
165158155212211197 Mexico
154148151163150144 Canada
657084102100110 Russia
343434384739 South Africa
313132503521 China
nrnrnrnr2323 Others
2,5992,5822,5592,6612,6162,572 Total Foreign
2,2382,2662,3602,4312,4012,295 United States
4,8374,8484,9195,0925,0174,867 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.
2/ 'nr' = 'no data'.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Imports
150145144197196183 Mexico
115115112125103113 EU-27
262626314034 South Africa
252527453017 China
102541687591 Russia
888999 Canada
00001919 Others
334344358475472466 Total Foreign
556445 United States
339349364479476471 Total
none
Total Exports
165164164204177156 Brazil
105110106120124130 EU-27
212325252727 Canada
000000 Others
291297295349328313 Total Foreign
249247242307248248 United States
540544537656576561 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
304,000304,000303,500303,000296,500290,000 India
191,000185,325179,540175,437173,830172,111 Brazil
105,060105,430105,722105,948104,651109,908 China
87,50088,30088,83789,04388,46389,672 EU-27
48,65649,05754,26055,66255,66454,266 Argentina
31,87131,17130,77530,09529,26228,452 Colombia
28,28027,90727,32128,04028,40027,782 Australia
21,69722,19222,66622,85023,31623,669 Mexico
16,91917,63017,90018,37019,00019,850 Russia
12,77113,12613,26913,51513,83114,232 Venezuela
51,90853,36371,76882,48988,61789,740 Others
899,662897,501915,558924,449921,534919,682 Total Foreign
92,55093,70194,52196,03596,57396,342 United States
992,212991,2021,010,0791,020,4841,018,1071,016,024 Total
none
Production (Calf Crop)
62,00061,50061,25061,00060,00060,000 India
49,25049,20049,15049,05048,84548,188 Brazil
40,85041,50042,57645,36045,35339,827 China
29,70029,80030,20030,85031,50030,625 EU-27
13,20012,20012,00014,90015,90015,800 Argentina
9,7509,70810,1459,0799,36910,104 Australia
7,1257,0006,8756,7546,7326,925 Mexico
6,8406,9707,2007,1007,3107,505 Russia
5,6755,6755,6755,6705,7505,740 Colombia
4,5504,6455,0815,2885,5405,347 Canada
15,05714,22019,62723,52624,66025,499 Others
243,997242,418249,779258,577260,959255,560 Total Foreign
35,17535,40035,81936,15336,75937,016 United States
279,172277,818285,598294,730297,718292,576 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.
2/ From 2008, Philippines is excluded.
From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.
3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Imports
550550432304384249 Venezuela
20014045173019 Egypt
8512552070102 Brazil
709047151515 China
555054495438 Canada
354049587558 Russia
302520908172 Mexico
171716202526 Japan
225444 EU-27
112341 Ukraine
00101131218274 Others
1,0451,0401,291761900758 Total Foreign
2,1002,1502,0022,2842,4952,289 United States
3,1453,1903,2933,0453,3953,047 Total
none
Total Exports
1,1001,1001,0671,5981,4121,032 Canada
1,0001,0509807381,0891,275 Mexico
850915954869719634 Australia
600680530414438246 Brazil
450450403376387469 EU-27
1851652071694699 Uruguay
314029335154 China
201813172832 New Zealand
113222 Argentina
111110 Russia
00114103227292 Others
4,2384,4204,3014,3204,4004,135 Total Foreign
7068581076650 United States
4,3084,4884,3594,4274,4664,185 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.
2/ From 2008, Philippines is excluded.
From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Beginning Stocks
468,507469,960462,913439,895418,504433,191 China
151,150151,961153,067159,732161,526159,115 EU-27
37,40135,12233,89232,94733,14732,938 Brazil
20,32520,23019,56218,18717,18016,550 Russia
11,35711,83512,18013,81014,90715,110 Canada
10,94210,4859,9129,4019,0218,911 Mexico
9,70010,0009,8999,7459,7599,620 Japan
9,1018,7218,2238,7428,5188,098 Korea, South
8,4007,5776,5267,0208,0557,052 Ukraine
2,4502,3022,4122,6052,7332,538 Australia
nrnrnr2,39851,52250,013 Others
729,333728,193718,586711,482734,872743,136 Total Foreign
64,45064,88767,14868,17762,51661,463 United States
793,783793,080785,734779,659797,388804,599 Total
none
Production (Pig Crop)
661,000660,000655,545636,817592,080605,823 China
257,800258,000257,300258,400265,100259,158 EU-27
45,65044,70043,20041,76039,15037,000 Russia
39,15037,26535,89034,84534,53033,304 Brazil
27,40028,00029,30131,08531,83532,278 Canada
17,30017,10017,70016,96017,05016,950 Japan
16,16816,00715,96615,92415,76715,700 Mexico
15,49715,38214,91613,79214,42213,943 Korea, South
9,1608,7007,4006,6196,9867,543 Ukraine
4,8504,7484,4674,4775,4805,301 Australia
nrnrnr5,03084,35681,461 Others
1,093,9751,089,9021,081,6851,065,7091,106,7561,108,461 Total Foreign
115,220112,648114,542115,030112,873105,633 United States
1,209,1951,202,5501,196,2271,180,7391,219,6291,214,094 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ nr = no record
2/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.
From 2009, Chile is excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Imports
4007001,202770377382 Russia
505076861240 Ukraine
1210780136196 Mexico
443226 EU-27
223221 Canada
2261232 China
220232 Korea, South
111000 Japan
000221 Others
4737711,298956537630 Total Foreign
5,9005,7546,3659,34810,0048,763 United States
6,3736,5257,66310,30410,5419,393 Total
none
Total Exports
5,9005,7606,3769,35710,0328,777 Canada
1,6751,6501,6021,6451,6091,723 China
1,6501,6002,2101,508901967 EU-27
111010 Russia
011130 Others
9,2269,01210,19012,51112,54611,467 Total Foreign
20222197137165 United States
9,2469,03410,21112,60812,68311,632 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.
From 2009, Chile is excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Beef and Veal: Per Capita Consumption (CWE)
Kilograms Per Person
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct
2011
Per Capita Consumption none
64.4 Argentina 69.2 67.5 66.5 55.7 54.0
36.5 Australia 34.7 35.0 35.0 35.3 34.2
36.4 Brazil 36.8 36.9 37.1 37.3 37.6
31.3 Canada 32.4 31.2 30.4 29.5 29.2
21.6 Chile 23.3 21.9 24.0 25.5 25.9
4.3 China 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0
18.3 Colombia 16.7 15.2 18.0 19.2 19.0
17.7 EU-27 17.7 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.6
10.2 Egypt 8.7 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.6
14.8 Hong Kong 15.0 18.9 24.0 30.3 32.3
1.5 India 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8
7.1 Iran 7.3 7.7 7.6 9.9 10.0
9.1 Japan 9.3 9.2 9.5 9.5 9.6
25.7 Kazakhstan 27.1 27.3 26.7 26.6 26.5
10.3 Korea, South 10.8 11.1 11.3 12.9 12.9
17.4 Mexico 17.9 18.3 17.6 17.7 17.8
31.1 New Zealand 29.8 29.5 28.5 28.0 28.0
8.0 Pakistan 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.1
24.7 Paraguay 26.2 31.9 35.3 36.4 37.0
3.8 Philippines 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.9
16.3 Russia 16.6 17.1 15.3 15.7 15.7
15.5 South Africa 14.5 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1
4.8 Taiwan 4.7 4.8 5.2 6.2 6.4
11.7 Ukraine 10.9 10.5 8.4 8.3 8.4
43.0 United States 42.6 41.0 39.8 38.5 37.4
53.4 Uruguay 51.7 50.6 58.4 55.5 53.9
20.7 Uzbekistan 20.4 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.7
17.1 Venezuela 20.8 23.1 18.8 18.8 18.8
Note: May include meat of other bovines
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Pork: Per Capita Consumption (CWE)
Kilograms Per Person
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct
2011
Per Capita Consumption none
5.9 Argentina 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7
20.9 Australia 22.2 21.7 22.0 22.1 22.3
40.8 Belarus 39.1 44.9 42.0 42.7 43.0
25.2 Canada 26.6 25.5 25.5 23.6 23.1
21.1 Chile 20.0 20.8 22.2 22.7 22.8
35.0 China 32.3 35.1 36.5 37.1 38.0
3.3 Colombia 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
42.1 EU-27 43.8 42.8 42.3 41.8 41.8
60.4 Hong Kong 61.5 65.0 68.9 69.0 70.3
19.2 Japan 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.3
13.7 Kazakhstan 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.8
29.5 Korea, South 31.1 31.4 30.5 31.3 31.8
13.9 Mexico 14.0 14.6 15.9 15.7 15.7
20.5 New Zealand 21.3 20.4 21.4 20.7 21.2
24.7 Norway 27.2 26.1 25.3 25.0 25.1
18.2 Russia 19.4 21.7 21.4 22.0 22.8
3.7 South Africa 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
34.0 Switzerland 33.6 33.5 33.3 32.9 33.1
38.1 Taiwan 36.9 35.7 36.9 35.6 36.0
12.5 Ukraine 15.4 18.0 15.6 17.0 18.6
29.0 United States 29.8 29.0 29.3 27.2 27.1
5.1 Venezuela 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6
20.3 Vietnam 21.4 21.5 21.2 20.8 21.0
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Broiler Meat: Per Capita Consumption
Kilograms Per Person, Ready to Cook Equivalent
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct
2011
Per Capita Consumption none
28.0 Argentina 30.0 31.4 32.4 34.0 36.0
34.6 Australia 33.9 34.7 35.0 35.3 35.5
35.8 Brazil 38.1 39.7 39.3 40.1 40.8
30.1 Canada 29.9 30.0 29.5 29.6 30.0
29.2 Chile 29.6 28.3 28.9 32.0 32.0
7.9 China 8.6 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5
20.4 Colombia 22.3 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.0
15.6 EU-27 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.8 18.0
38.8 Hong Kong 36.1 36.2 37.3 40.9 47.0
1.8 India 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
3.0 Indonesia 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8
20.4 Iran 22.4 22.2 23.1 24.3 24.8
15.4 Japan 15.3 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.1
12.4 Korea, South 12.9 12.7 14.0 15.0 15.1
46.7 Kuwait 50.7 65.8 75.0 66.3 65.8
38.5 Malaysia 38.9 38.6 37.7 37.4 37.2
28.0 Mexico 28.2 29.8 29.3 29.6 29.8
7.3 Philippines 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.1
16.7 Russia 18.2 19.2 19.4 17.7 19.6
35.4 Saudi Arabia 36.8 37.6 40.6 40.9 42.4
28.6 South Africa 28.8 29.3 29.4 30.5 30.9
29.0 Taiwan 26.3 25.7 25.2 28.0 27.1
12.4 Thailand 12.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.3
11.2 Ukraine 13.2 17.7 17.1 17.5 17.8
48.8 United Arab Emirates 54.9 63.8 63.1 62.5 62.3
45.8 United States 45.1 44.2 42.1 43.3 43.6
30.7 Venezuela 32.3 36.6 29.9 31.4 31.1
4.3 Vietnam 5.2 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.6
9.2 Yemen 9.6 9.0 10.2 9.8 9.8
Note: Middle East consumption is likely to be overstated due to transshipments in the region and temporary workers not included in
population statistics.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Notes to Readers
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview. Data Modifications Cattle/Beef:
• India – Based on the release of the 2007 livestock Census, PSDs for cattle and beef are revised from 2003 to present.
• United Arab Emirates – Based on additional data, historical beef trade estimates are revised.
Swine/Pork: • China – Pork imports have been revised from 2005 onwards to include imports as reported
by Chinese Customs plus Hong Kong re-exports to China as reported by Hong Kong’s Census and Statistics Department.
• Guatemala: data record was added to the pork PSD for 1995. • Montenegro: Based on additional data, pork production has been revised from 1996 to
present. • Taiwan: Based on additional data, pork production has been revised from 2006 onwards.
Broiler Meat:
• South Africa – Production has been revised from 2000 onwards based on newly available information.
Conversion Rates
Beef &Veal Pork Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201
Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250
Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249
Broiler Meat Turkey Meat Conversion Rate 1 1 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13
Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14 Processed and Salted: 1602.32,
0210.99
Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35
Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36 Processed: 1602.31
Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded. Assumptions
• BSE: Forecast assumes a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of October 9, 2010.
• Other Diseases (AI, H1N1, FMD): Forecast reflects policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks as of October 9, 2010.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010
Technical Notes CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since August 2010 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp. PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis. Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/. Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in April 2011. Questions may be directed to the following staff:
Anneke Gustafson (202) 720-7285 [email protected] Poultry (Broiler, Turkey and Other Poultry products)
Claire Mezoughem
(202) 720-7715
Cattle, Beef,, Other animals and meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal by products (rendered products, hides and skins)
Lesley Ahmed (202) 720-2781
[email protected] Swine and Pork
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
October 2010