tracking the technology revolution - nato · 2019-08-09 · react. global warming, sea level rise,...
TRANSCRIPT
Tracking the Technology Revolution:
Highlights from the TechCast Project
William E. Halal, PhD
George Washington University
Bangkok University
TechCast LLC
www.TechCast.org
Copyright W. Halal
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Books available at author’s discount
Overview
TechCast Method
Highlights of the Tech Revolution
The Global MegaCrisis
Macroforecasts of Scenarios
Institutional Change
Participation Invited
Impact on your organization?
Your industry in 2020?
Issues? Strategies?
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TechCast Online Research System Collective Intelligence for Tough Questions
• 7 Editors
• Internet
• Periodicals
• Literature
• Interviews
• Conferences
• Trends Pro & Con
• Adoption
• Market Size
• Other Forecasts
Background Data
Scanning Expert Survey
Results
• 100 Experts • Diverse Sample • Leading Thought • Estimates
• Forecasts
• Comments
• Validate
• Rank 2-3/
105 M hits
Annual Update
Status Quo Defined as
100 % Uncertainty
30 - 40 % Decrease
In Uncertainty
30 - 40 % Decrease
In Uncertainty
Uncertainty about 30%
+/- 3 years
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Typical Results of Expert Survey
Virtual Education: Electronic methods are used in 30% of university courses
Mean Std Dev N (# Experts)
Most Likely Year 2016 5 72
Market Size (1-10) 3.9 1.8 72
Confidence (%) 65 14.2 72
In addition, 6 experts predicted that this event would never occur.
Most Likely Year Market Size Confidence Copyright W. Halal
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2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Energy, &
Environment
Virtual
Education
Information
Technology
Manufacturing
& Robotics E-Commerce Medicine &
Biogenetics Transportation Space
Alternative
Energy
Nuclear
Fusion
GMO
Quantum
Computing
Recycling
Precision Farming
Organic
Farming
Smart
Phone
Global
Access Biometrics
Intelligent
Interface
Contact
Personal
Medicine
Child Traits
Deep Space
Cloud
Computing
Broadband
On-Line
Publishing
Mass
Custom’n
Smart
Robots
NanoTech
Life Span =100
Space
Tourism
Designed
Materials
Small Aircraft
Grown
Organs
Humans
On Mars
Artificial Organs
Genetic
Therapy
Hybrid
Cars
Fuel Cell
Cars
Hypersonic
Planes
Hi-Speed
Trains
Mo
st L
ikel
y Y
ear
Moon Base
Overview of the Tech Revolution www.TechCast.org
2040
Climate Control
Micro
Machines
Intelligent
Cars
TeleMedicine
E-Gov’t.
Aquaculture
Smart
Grid
BioComputing
Entertainment
E-Tailing
Green
Business
Optical Computers
Virtual Reality
Water Purif’n
Convergence
Thought
Power
Smart
Sensors
Modular
Homes
Cancer Cure
Eco-
Bikes
Web 2.0
Body
Monitoring Web 3.0
TeleWork
Hydrogen
Economy
Power
Sorage
Synthetic
Biology Electric
Cars AI
off scale
Video
Confer’ng 3 D
Printing
Commercial
Space
Solar
Satellites
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Possibly the Best Forecasting System Available
• Comprehensive Covers strategic technologies in all fields
• Authoritative Pools trend data and knowledge of 100 plus experts
• Current Updated constantly by editors & experts in real time
• Validated Annual accuracy study of forecasts over time & arrivals
• Recognized Ranks 2 - 3 out of 105 million hits on Google search
• Cited Top three systems in National Academies report
• Awarded First Prize in AOL competition for creative IT research
• Published Technology’s Promise, Washington Post, Newsweek,
Futurist, etc.
• Consulted FDA, EPA, DoD, DNI, Corning, AMD, Asian Development
Bank, Saudi Arabia, Korea, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, etc.
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THE VIRTUOUS CYCLE OF KNOWLEDGE
IT INNOVATION
KNOWLEDGE
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Energy & Environment
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Alternative Energy
• Geothermal, wind, biomass growing
• Clean coal, gas, sequester/recyle CO2
• Concentrated solar/photovoltaic about 2015
• Biggest source is conservation (Lovins)
• Nuclear growing – from 440 plants to 500-600
• Deregulation, distributed energy, smart grids
• Growth rates of 30-50%/year – similar to Moore’s Law
• Potential Market ~ $10-20 billion/year
TechCast: From 17% today to 30% of energy by 2024
(hydro - 6%, bio - 3 to 6%, nuclear - 6 to 9%, wind - .5 to 3%, solar - .5
to 6%, plus conservation, clean coal, gas, etc.)
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IT
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AI
• $1B in ’93, $12B in ’02, $21B in ’07, $36B by 2015
• Speech recog, robots, games & simulations, GPS nav, language trans, emotion recog, etc.
• Intelligent systems: IBM Watson, Microsoft Bing,
Wolfram Alpha, Google, MIT, DARPA, etc.
• 5 robotic vehicles completed DARPA competition
• IBM simulating the human brain
• Kurzweil: $1000 PC with power of the brain by 2020
• TechCast: AI replaces routine mental work (“weak AI”) about 2022
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Managing
Technology Breakthroughs
• Organizations need to plan for technological changes in products, organization, society
• Track Strategic Technologies – Netflix, Apple, Toyota
• Develop Creative Opportunities – All
• Involve stakeholders – Netflix, Apple
• Expect failures as well as success – Apple Source: Halal, “Business Strategies for the Technology Revolution.”
The Global MegaCrisis
Trends Driving the MegaCrisis
• Science Forecasts of Climate Change 1 F to 4-10 F, 3-6 ft sea level by 2100
• Environmental Impacts Extreme weather, pollution, energy shortages, lose a
quarter of species, disease
• Methane a Growing New Threat 23 times the global warming impact of CO2
• Reducing CO2 is Costly $20 trillion, or about 1-3 % of global GDP.
• Industrialization Growing Globalization to double GDP and these trends about 2020
• Little Political Will No global agreement on taxing carbon. US in gridlock
• Increasing Water Scarcity World Bank - half of the world facing scarcity
• Recession Likely for Years Like the Great Depression of 1930
• Institutional Failures Could Grow Severe Stiglitz: “The financial collapse may be to
markets what the Berlin Wall was to Communism.”
• CyberWarfare US military, banks, air traffic systems under constant attack
• Weapons of Mass Destruction 1,784 nuclear trafficking incidents
Trends Resolving the MegaCrisis
• The World Starting to Use Alternative Energy 20% of energy by 2020
• Technology Revolution Introduces New Powers Information Technology (IT),
Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, biogenetics, etc. about 2015
• Forces of Social Change Women in power, Millennial generation, etc.
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TechCast Survey on the Megacrisis (Results for 2011 Sample = 55)
Decline to Disaster - 25% probability World fails to
react. Global warming, sea level rise, energy shortages, economic
depression, nuclear exchange, etc. Loss of civilization in major nations.
Muddling Down - 35% probability Weak response.
High-tech dark age, ecological damage, increased poverty and conflict.
Muddling Up - 28% probability World reacts out of
need and the help of IT/AI. Disaster avoided but some increased disorder
Rise to Maturity - 12% probability Ideal transition to a
responsible global order.
Source: “Global MegaCrisis” (Futurist, World Affairs, Journal of Foresight Studies)
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50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Ex
pert
s' C
on
fid
en
ce
(%
)
Most Likely Year
Macroforecasting Scenarios
Market
Size
2015 The World Online
2020 High-Tech Arrives
2030 Global Order
© TechCast, LLC. All Rights Reserved
Graph by Elizabeth West
Energy & Environment Information Technology E-Commerce Manufacturing & Robotics Medicine and Biogenetics Transportation Space
Life Extension
Hydrogen Economy
Humans on Mars
Moon Base
Hypersonic Planes
High Speed Trains Child Traits Grown Organs
Automated Highways
Cancer Cure
Gene Therapy
Artificial Intelligence
Thought Power
Biocomputing
Desalination
Alternative Energy
Electric Cars
Eco-Bikes
Quantum Computing
Genetic Food
Organic Farming
Smart Robots
Micro
Nanotech
Modular Homes
Personal Medicine
Power storage
Artificial Organs
Telework
Body Monitoring
Virtual Reality Smart Phones
Digital Convergence
Broadband
Entertainment
Web 2.0
Video Conferencing
Hybrid Cars
Intelligent Interface
Space Tourism
Climate Control
Biometrics
Green Business
E-tailing
Pervasive Networks
Precision Farming
E-Government
Online Publishing
Intelligent Web
Mass customization
Designed Materials
Fuel Cell Cars
Aquaculture
Global Access
Virtual Education
Grid Computing
Optical
Computers
Cloud Computing
Smart Sensors
Nuclear Fusion
Smart Grids
Recycling
Wireless
Intelligent cars
Small Aircraft
Telemedicine
Synthetic Life
Micro- Machines
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IT: Smart phones, Web 3.0, convergence, fast BB and wireless, cloud, language translation, speech recognition, etc.
E-Commerce: 30% take-off adoption levels - $20/30 Trillion/year Green Tech, TeleMed, Smart Cars, Telework, Space Comm/Tourism, etc.
Global Brain: Half the world joins the Internet
Next 35 yr Upcycle: About 2015-2050
2015
The World Online
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2020 - High-Tech Arrives Sustainability Green business, alternative energy,
climate control, GMO, smart grids, etc.
Green Transportation Hybrid/electric/smart cars,
hi-speed trains, small aircraft, hypersonic flight
Mastery Over Life Artificial organs, DNA testing,
grown organs, cancer cure, life extension, neurotech.
Infinite Knowledge and Intelligence 2nd generation IT (bio,
optical, quantum), AI, robotics, virtual reality
Global Consciousness Automation of routine thought moves beyond
knowledge to address the MegaCrisis. Restructuring institutions and society.
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Next Advance Beyond Knowledge ?
Technologies of Consciousness
Neurotech – Prostheses for Parkinson’s, adding memory, etc.
Biofeedback – Use of EEG for focused attention, stress, control, etc.
Machine-Brain interface/Thought Power – Brain waves controlling machines, comm.
Virtual Reality – Simulating environments to live in fully.
Media – Consumerism, sex, violence, hype, etc. - the over connected society
The Experience Economy – Travel, dining, sports, the arts, etc
Drugs – Medicinal (Prozac, etc), professional (Modafinil), recreational (marijuana, etc )
Vision & Strategy – Purpose, vision, forecasting, strategy, etc.
Institutional Change – Collaborative enterprise in business & government
Collaboration – Politics, diplomacy, labor-mgt coop., joint problem-solving
Servant Leadership – GM Saturn, Good to Great Studies, Japanese, etc.
Conflict Resolution – Peace Studies, arbitration, mediation, etc.
Physical Practice – Yoga, dance, athletics, art, etc.
Religion – Synthesis of world’s religious values?
Science - Study of spiritual energy?
Meditation & Prayer
Sexuality
Other ways to shape awareness?
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Creative Destruction of Institutions
Business – 2008 Financial Meltdown, Moral Crisis of
Capitalism, Collaborative Enterprise?
Government: E-government, budget deficits ?
Health Care: Patients vs profits, performance data, cost?
Media/Entertainment: Moving to Internet
Education: Distance learning, cost ?
Banking, Insurance: Internet ?
IT Industry: Technology Gap ?
Auto Makers: 50K deaths/yr, congestion, environment ?
Manufacturing: Mass customization, environment ?
Military: WMD, culture, peace-keeping ?
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Strategic Implications
• Online Collective Intelligence a robust tool
for pooling knowledge
• Most organizations unaware of the
knowledge residing in their system
• Process aids understanding and integration
• Possible applications
Corporate sales, issues, strategy, etc.
Federal Center for Technology Forecasting
Integrate knowledge of intelligence agencies
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Thank you
Questions?