tracking progress in cutting hunger and poverty in africa and southeast asia
DESCRIPTION
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands, April 12, 2010TRANSCRIPT
Tracking progress in cutting hunger and poverty in Africa and Southeast
Asia
Shenggen FanDirector General
International Food Policy Research Institute
April 12, 2010
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Outline
1. Development Strategies in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
2. Tracking performance of Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
3. Agenda for achieving future food security
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Different Development Pathways
Southeast Asia• Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia
Market-oriented approach: macroeconomic stability, human capital formation, and trade openness
Short period of import substitution followed by export-led growth
Devoted larger share of public investment to rural areas, and lower direct/indirect taxes on agriculture compared to other developing countries
• Vietnam and China: “firing from the bottom approach” that focused on agricultural reforms, including
Decentralization of agricultural production systems Liberalization of pricing and marketing systems
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Different Development Pathways
Sub-Saharan Africa• Dominated by agro-pessimistic thinking for many years
• Urban-industrialization approach → many Sub-Saharan countries missed opportunity to achieve structural transformation where agriculture could deliver aggregate economic growth
• The patterns of discrimination against farmers persist, although there has been reduction in agricultural distortions (especially taxes on farm exports)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
TRACKING PERFORMANCE OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Economic and Agricultural Growth
1985-1989 1990-1999 2000-20070
2
4
6
8
10
12
GDP (annual % growth)
SSA SEA China1985-1989 1990-1999 2000-2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Agricultural GDP (annual % growth)
SSA SEA China
Source: World Bank, 2009
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Lackluster pattern of poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa
Share of population living under $1.25 per day, %
0
30
60
90
Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia China
Source: PovcalNet, 2010
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
World Map of Hunger: 2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI) by Severity
GHI components:• Proportion of undernourished• Prevalence of underweight in children• Under-five mortality rate
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Hunger persists in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
1990-1992 1995-1997 2000-2002 2004-20060
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Prevalence of undernourishment in total population (%)
Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast AsiaChina
1990-1992 1995-1997 2000-2002 2004-20060
50
100
150
200
250
Number of undernourished persons (millions)
Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast AsiaChina
Source: World Bank, 2009
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Contributing factors to differences in performance
Geography Distortions to agricultural incentives Governance Investment in agriculture
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Underspending on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa relative to size of sector
Agricultural expenditures as % of agricultural GDP
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20040
4
8
12
16
SSA SEA China
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
Africa is still taxing agriculture
Source: Anderson 2008.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGENDA FOR ACHIEVING FUTURE GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
1. Improve smallholder productivity and access to markets
Improve access to inputs (e.g. seeds, fertilizer)
Improve access to services (e.g. extension and finance)
Increase investment in rural infrastructure (e.g. rural feeder roads, water, irrigation)
Promote agricultural research and innovation
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
2. Linking smallholders with modern value chains
Socioeconomic factors alongside policy reforms have transformed value chains• Emergence of supermarkets in Southeast Asia and
more recently Southern/Eastern Africa
Small farmers often lack resources to participate and share benefits
Support innovative institutional arrangements for vertical coordination, e.g. producer cooperatives
Eliminate bias towards development of high-value chains in Africa → more focus on increasing the efficiency of food crop value chains
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
3. Promote productive safety nets
Goals: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets
Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor
Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.
Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, April 2010
4. Build institutions and capacities
Improve evidence-based policy making• Asian reform process (esp. China) emphasized gradual
implementation after careful experimentation in selected districts:
Successful policies scaled up Failed policies used for learning purposes
• Increase investment in information gathering, monitoring, and evaluation
RESAKSS
Strengthen human and administrative capacities through increased investment in education and training
The most effective and sustainable actions must be
country-led and country-owned