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Sperling is Founding Direc-tor, Institute of Transporta-tion Studies, and Professorof Engineering and Envi-ronmental Science and Policy, University of Cali-fornia, Davis. He is a mem-ber of the TRB Special TaskForce on Climate Changeand Energy, the Trans-portation and Sustainabil-ity Committee, and theCommittee for a Study ofPotential Energy Savingsand Greenhouse GasReductions from Trans-portation, and an emeritusmember of the AlternativeTransportation Fuels Com-mittee. Gordon is a trans-portation policy and energyanalyst and consultant, apast member of the TRBEnergy Committee, and arecipient of the TRB FredBurggraf Award.

This article is adapted fromTwo Billion Cars: DrivingToward Sustainability, bySperling and Gordon, to bepublished by Oxford Uni-versity Press in 2009. Forstatistics cited in this articleand for references to sourcematerials, please see TwoBillion Cars.

More than one billion motorized vehi-cles are driven on the earth today. TheUnited States, birthplace of the carindustry and car culture, leads in the

numbers of vehicles.1 In the next two decades, vehicle ownership is expected to double worldwide(Figure 1, next page).

Can the planet sustain two billion vehicles?No—at least not as they exist today. Today’s billionvehicles are pumping extraordinary quantities ofgreenhouse gases into the atmosphere, are drainingthe world’s conventional petroleum supplies, areinciting political skirmishes over oil, and are overwhelming city roads. Even in the most conser-vative view, conventional motorization, vehicles,

and fuels threaten an economic and environmentalcataclysm.

Cars will not disappear. The desire for personalvehicles is powerful and pervasive. Cars offerunprecedented freedom, flexibility, convenience, andcomfort. Cars bestow untold benefits on their own-ers. Cars have transformed modern life and are oneof the great industrial success stories of the 20th century (Figure 2, next page).

Two Billion CarsTransforming a CultureD A N I E L S P E R L I N G A N D D E B O R A H G O R D O N

Editor’s Note: The spotlight theme for the TRB 2009Annual Meeting is Transportation, Energy, and Climate Change. The 70 sessions and workshopsaddressing this theme offer a myriad of researchresults and perspectives; this feature article serves asa preview. TR News invites articles and letters to theeditor about research and perspectives on energyand climate change to continue the focus on theseissues.

1 The term cars often is used here to represent allconventional motor vehicles—cars, sport utility vehicles,minivans, trucks, buses, motorcycles, scooters, or three-wheeled motorized vehicles.

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Troublesome TrendsVehicle OwnershipDespite the rhetoric about energy independence andclimate stabilization, vehicle sales, oil consumption,and carbon dioxide emissions are soaring globally.The number of motorized vehicles around the worldis expected to increase by 3 percent annually. Theslowest rate of car growth is expected in Europe, atless than 1 percent per year; in the United States, therate will be likely 1 to 2 percent; but in China and

India, growth rates of more than 7 or 8 percent peryear are expected (2).

Ever-cheaper cars are whetting the powerfuldesire for personal vehicles. The Indian conglomer-ate Tata plans to unveil the $2,500 Nano soon. Mostinternational automakers will follow, manufacturingcheap cars not only for the developing world butalso for richer countries.

Increasing vehicle ownership translates intoincreasing oil use. The world consumes 85 millionbarrels of oil per day, and demand is expected toreach 120 million barrels by 2030. One-fourth of allthe oil consumed by humans throughout history willbe consumed during the next 10 years.

With oil production outside of the Organizationof Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) alreadynear peak, the United States and other countries willrely increasingly on OPEC supplies, creating stress ascountries compete for ever scarcer petroleumresources. With transportation accounting for one-half of all oil consumption in the world and for two-thirds in the United States, the oil problem is largelya transportation problem.

Climate ChangeClimate change poses another problem. The scien-tific community believes that greenhouse gas emis-sions, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), need to bereduced by 50 to 80 percent by 2050 to stabilize theclimate and to avert economic and environmentalcataclysm (3). Transportation-related CO2 emissionshave more than doubled since 1970, a faster rate ofgrowth than emissions from any other sector. In theUnited States, transportation contributes one-third ofCO2 emissions.

In 2008, for the first time, greenhouse gas emis-sions from transportation did not increase in theUnited States, after annual increases of approxi-mately 2 percent during the preceding decades.Transportation-related petroleum use and green-house gas emissions likely will level off and slowlybegin to decrease in the next few years—because ofimprovements in vehicle fuel economy—but U.S. oilimports still will be extraordinarily high, and green-house gas emissions will not approach the stabiliza-tion goal of a 50 to 80 percent reduction.

Car companies are evolving quickly, prodded byhigh oil prices, aggressive energy and climate poli-cies, and shifts in consumer preferences. The era oflarge sport utility vehicles is receding, with smallerand more efficient vehicles moving to the fore, andelectric-drive propulsion slowly gaining adoption.Policies to improve fuel economy and reduce carbonemissions face resistance from many, but change is athand.

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1926U.S. transit ridership reaches highest peacetime levels

FIGURE 1 Historicaland projectedincreases in globalmotor vehiclepopulation,1950–2030 (1).

FIGURE 2 Brief history of car-centric transportation (1).


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Fuel SupplyFuel supply is more problematic. Prices in global oilmarkets have little relationship to production costs,and national oil companies in the Middle East,Venezuela, and elsewhere control more than 80 per-cent of all oil reserves. ExxonMobil, the largestinvestor-owned Western oil company, ranks 12th inthe oil reserves it controls, far behind Saudi Aramcoand many others. Many of the politicized national oilcompanies in OPEC provide more than half theirgovernments’ revenue and are more responsive todomestic priorities than to market prices.

As a result, the market is not working. High oilprices are not stimulating investments in oil pro-duction or in alternative fuels. With carbon emis-sions still largely ignored, the Western oil companiesare turning to high-carbon unconventional oil—suchas tar sands, heavy oil, and even shale oil and coal liq-uids—investments that may be rational in the mar-ket but are not in the public interest.

Traffic CongestionVehicle travel has outpaced population growth, evenin the United States (Figure 3, page 6). More carsmean more traffic—road construction cannot keeppace with growing mobility demands. In 2008, afterfive years of steadily increasing gasoline prices, vehi-cle travel finally did not increase for the first time indecades. Yet car use worldwide is booming, asincomes increase and vehicle costs shrink.

Despite a few innovative alternatives—such ascarsharing, pioneered in Switzerland; telecommutingand carpooling, in the United States; and bus rapidtransit, in Curitiba, Brazil—cars dominate the trans-portation system. This hegemony of cars encourages

low-density suburban development. With growth,the suburbs become too dense for cars but not denseenough for mass transit.

Cities that developed with autos—for example,Los Angeles, Houston, and Phoenix—consist of sub-urbs with small commercial districts. They are noteasily served by conventional bus and rail transitwith fixed routes and schedules and have difficultyshifting citizens out of cars. Transit accounts for only2 percent of passenger miles traveled in the UnitedStates.

Yet the solutions to oil security and climatechange also can resolve local air pollution, trafficcongestion, and urban livability. Some traffic con-gestion is desirable—the absence of congestionwould indicate a depressed economy, a somnolentsociety, or an overinvestment in infrastructure. Butcongestion levels in most large cities of the world aresevere enough to harm economic and social activity.The need to address traffic congestion and escalatinginfrastructure costs could engage the transportationcommunity in reducing oil use and greenhouse gasemissions.

Road Map to Survival The world can accommodate two billion or morevehicles, but a transformation of the auto and oilindustries—and eventually, of transportation sys-tems—will be required.

Transforming VehiclesThe year 2008 likely will be seen as a turning pointin vehicle energy use. Although the energy efficiencyof vehicles has been improving steadily, in terms ofwork per unit of energy, the gains have been appliedfor more than two decades to increasing vehicle sizeand power. In other words, the efficiency innovations

Tata Motors factory inSingur, West Bengal,India, was set to producethe inexpensive Nano(above); the site wasmoved late in 2008 to thestate of Gujarat aftermassive opposition fromdisplaced farmers.

Air pollution over Hong Kong, China. The city’s roadsare among the most crowded in the world, withapproximately 280 vehicles per road kilometer. Dieselcommercial vehicles produce 90 percent of particulatematter and 80 percent of nitrogen oxide emissionsfrom the road sector. The dense population, factories,power stations, and construction also contribute.

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have served private desires for larger and more pow-erful vehicles, not the public interests of energy secu-rity and climate stabilization.

Change is on the way. In December 2007, Con-gress passed a law to improve the fuel economy ofnew cars and light trucks by 40 percent by 2020. Cal-ifornia has a pending law to reduce greenhouse gasesand fuel consumption still further, and 12 otherstates are ready to follow. Near-term reductions inenergy use and in greenhouse gas emissions willresult mainly from improvements in conventionaltechnology—in engines, transmissions, aerodynam-ics, and materials.

The more profound change is to electric-drivetechnology. Although 97 percent of the vehicles inthe world burn petroleum fuels in combustionengines, electric motors will propel an increasingproportion of vehicles. Hybrid electric vehicles, likethe Toyota Prius, are the vanguard of this revolu-tion.

How the electricity will be provided to these vehi-cles remains uncertain. The two likeliest options arefuel cells that convert hydrogen to electricity andbatteries that store electricity from the grid. Thetransformation of vehicles to electric-drive propul-sion is under way, with several automakers planningto release next-generation plug-in hybrids and bat-tery electric vehicles in 2010.

Transforming FuelsFuel suppliers and fuels are the next focus for trans-formation. Except for ethanol in Brazil, alternativefuels have not dislodged or even competed withpetroleum fuels, although alternative fuels havespurred improvements indirectly in conventionalfuels and engines. In the late 1980s and early 1990s,the anticipated introduction of alternative fuelsplayed a central role in the development of cleanergasoline and diesel fuels and cleaner-burningengines. The demonstrated viability of methanol andnatural gas vehicles—and their lower emissions—provided air quality regulators with a sound basis fortightening fuel and vehicle standards.

More profound changes are under consideration.The dominant transportation fuels of the future willbe a mix of biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen. Elec-tricity and hydrogen will fuel electric-drive vehicles,with biofuels gradually replacing petroleum fuels incombustion engines—probably including jetengines.

The debate over biofuels has focused on ethanolmade from corn. But corn ethanol is not an attractiveoption for the long term—nor, according to many, forthe short term—for a variety of economic and envi-

Open pit mining of tarsands—or bituminoussands—in Alberta,Canada; the complexrecovery processes includeextracting and separatingthe bitumen from clay,sand, and water (seephoto, lower right);upgrading before refining,and then diluting withlighter hydrocarbons tomake the oil transportableby pipelines.

A separation cell is one step in the extraction ofbitumen from tar sands mixed with water.

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ronmental reasons. The other prominent biofuel,ethanol made from sugarcane in Brazil, is moreattractive, but Brazil’s circumstances are unique andare not likely to be replicated elsewhere. The futureof biofuels is promising, but the principal fuel pro-duced from biomass will not be ethanol, and theprincipal feedstock will not be corn.

Most biofuels of the future probably will be madefrom cellulosic waste materials—grasses, trees, cropand forestry residues, and municipal waste—andconverted into fuels that resemble gasoline anddiesel. Ethanol will be phased out, because it haslower energy densities and is not compatible with thegasoline distribution system already in place—ethanol distribution is expensive and inefficient, rely-ing mostly on rail cars instead of pipelines.

The imperative for alternative fuels is not that theworld is running out of oil, but that it is running outof conventional oil. Tomorrow’s oil resources will bedifferent from today’s. The 20th century was fueledby easily accessible, relatively cheap, conventionaloil. Most of the remaining conventional oil comesfrom the Persian Gulf countries of OPEC. Those sup-plies not only are insecure but are inadequate. Oilcompanies therefore are developing unconventionalfossil resources—such as tar sands, oil shale, tarlikeheavy oil, and coal. The unconventional oil is dirt-ier, requires more energy to extract, and is more car-bon-intense than conventional oil.

The oil industry excels at assembling capital tobuild and operate complex facilities and therefore

favors high-carbon fuels. Unless the risk and cost oflow-carbon alternative fuels are reduced, the fuels ofthe future will be predominantly high-carbon uncon-ventional oil.

The question is whether oil companies will investtheir profits to deliver a new array of low-carbontransportation fuels. For this to occur, the oil com-panies would have to transform themselves intobroader energy companies that supply not onlypetroleum fuels but also biofuels, hydrogen, and pos-sibly electricity.

Transforming MobilityRelying solely on auto technology and fuels to reduceoil use and greenhouse gas emissions dramaticallywould be hugely expensive—in part because of con-tinuing growth in vehicle use. If the historical growthin vehicle miles traveled were to prevail, today’s 3 tril-lion vehicle miles in the United States would morethan double by 2050. Slowing or stopping thisgrowth in vehicle use while still meeting the desirefor accessibility is a tremendous challenge that willnecessitate changes in the transportation culture.

The key to change is greater choice for travelers.Wide-scale use of information and wireless tech-nologies in the transportation sector is imperative.These are needed to facilitate innovations such assmart paratransit, intelligent carsharing, dynamicridesharing, and the use of telecommunications torationalize and even replace tripmaking. Choices canbe expanded through better land use management,

Traffic congestion inHyderabad, India—“Traffic Jams a Way ofLife Now,” according toan Indian newspaperheadline.


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neighborhood cars, and enhanced mass transit. Theavailability of these choices will reduce vehicle useand create a lower carbon transportation system.

Traditional solutions will not suffice. The oldtrains and buses of half a century ago will not solveenergy and climate problems, at least in affluentnations. With their low ridership, transit buses in theUnited States are actually less energy efficient thancar travel on a passenger-mile basis.2 Conventionalrail transit is somewhat more energy efficient but isnot well suited to the suburban development pat-terns prevalent in the United States and therefore isunlikely to account for much more than 1 percent ofpassenger travel in the future. To reduce high-carbonvehicle travel, policies must encourage better choicesand more effective integration of land use, conven-tional mass transit, and transportation planning.

A new culture of innovation is needed in the

transport sector. Hints of change are emerging in theUnited States—for example, increased carsharingand bus rapid transit, a new law in California link-ing land use and vehicle miles traveled, and interestin conditioning transportation funds on environ-mental performance. The result could be a higherquality and less costly transportation system thatconsumes less energy and emits fewer amounts ofgreenhouse gases.

Moving ForwardThe desire for personal mobility can be accommo-dated even while reducing the environmental andgeopolitical impacts. Two overarching principles aresuggested. First, develop consistent incentives toempower and motivate people and organizations.Second, advance a broad portfolio of energy-efficient,low-carbon technologies. This vision requires per-vasive changes over a long period of time.

These transformations require leadership. Theadoption of fuel economy and renewable fuelrequirements in the Energy Independence and Secu-rity Act of 2007 was a positive step—although boost-ing corn ethanol may prove problematic.

Cues from CaliforniaLeadership may emerge at the local and state levels.For example, California is in the vanguard of climateand energy policy. A hotbed of environmentalismand entrepreneurialism, California adopted theworld’s first air pollution regulations and monitoringsystems and the first requirements to develop cleanergasoline and zero-emission vehicles. Now it is lead-ing with climate policy. If these initiatives are successful, California can lead America and theworld away from petroleum and toward climate stabilization.

In fall 2006, the California legislature passed theGlobal Warming Solutions Act, which calls for reduc-ing the state’s total greenhouse gas emissions to 1990levels by 2020—roughly a 28 percent reduction fromforecasted levels. A comprehensive set of rules andpolicies is being put in place as a follow-up to thislaw—including aggressive greenhouse gas emissionsstandards for vehicles, low-carbon fuel standards, andinitiatives to reduce sprawl and reduce driving.

The vehicle standards would require an improve-ment of roughly 20 percent above the federal fueleconomy standards adopted in December 2007. Butthe proposed California standards have becomeensnared in legal battles over states’ rights.

California’s low-carbon fuel initiative may be evenmore instrumental in bringing about change. Thestandards require a 10 percent reduction in life-cyclegreenhouse gas emissions from fuels by 2020 and

Hybrid powertrain in aMercedes Benz VisionGLK, a four-cylinderdiesel engine with anelectric motor modulethat acts as a generatorand starter. Themanufacturer claims thatthe “luxury class” vehicleachieves “the world’slowest CO2 emissions inthe SUV segment.”

In early 2008, Chevroletbegan testing a fleet ofmore than 100 hydrogen-powered Equinox FuelCell vehicles in New YorkCity, Washington, D.C.,and Southern California.A communication cablefrom the refueling pumpconnects to an onboardcomputer that determinesfuel temperature andpressure and how muchhydrogen to dispense.The fuel cell adds about500 pounds to thevehicle’s weight;aluminum doors and acarbon fiber hoodcompensate.

2 Transit buses used far less energy per passenger-mile thanautos 30 years ago, but the numbers have since flipped, asperformance improvements and air conditioning wereadded, and ridership failed to keep pace with expandingbus service (2, Table 2.13).


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provide a durable, performance-based framework fortransitioning to low-carbon fuel alternatives. TheCalifornia Air Resources Board is scheduled to adoptthe standard in early 2009. Many other states aremoving toward adopting California’s fuel standards,as is the European Union.

The conversion of the national ethanol programinto a performance-based, low-carbon fuel systemwould stimulate innovation in the entire range ofalternative fuels—from biofuels to hydrogen—allow-ing industry to pick winners and to reduce carbonemissions from all options, including unconven-tional petroleum fuels.

The third thrust of the California program is toreduce vehicle travel. An enabling law was passed inSeptember 2008 directing metropolitan regions toapply land use regulations and other means to reducevehicle miles traveled. The law provides for fundingto reward local governments, including adjustmentsto transportation funding.

If these new vehicle, fuel, and land use initiativesare successful, California can lead the United Statesand the world away from petroleum and toward cli-mate stabilization.

National Policy QuestionsThe new Congress and president will debate energysecurity, climate policy, and transportation funding inthe coming session. Will they embrace some of thepolicy innovations of California and others? Willthey allow California and other states to proceedwith more aggressive greenhouse gas standards forvehicles? Will they restructure and enhance therenewable fuels subsidies and mandates to be per-formance-based and to encompass promising alter-native fuels? Will they reform transportation fundingto empower state and local governments to reducegreenhouse gas emissions? Will local and state gov-

ernments reform their taxation rules and trans-portation financing practices to support innovativemobility services and more efficient land use andtransportation patterns?

Hard Work AheadHuman society faces a dilemma. People want cheapand easy mobility, and they want to travel in comfortand style. But giving free rein to these desires meansmore oil consumption and more greenhouse gasemissions; global tensions over scarce oil suppliesand a rapidly altering climate; and potential devas-tation for many regions, many businesses, and manypeople. The challenge is to reconcile the tensionsbetween private desires and the public interest.

America tends to embrace the desires of individ-uals in the name of freedom and consumer sover-eignty and to place faith in technology and themarketplace to rescue society from its excesses. Buthow can the conflicts between private desires and thepublic interest be resolved?

Even according to the most conservative scenar-ios, dramatic reductions in oil use and carbon emis-sions are necessary. Sweeping transformations are inorder and are slowly taking root. These transforma-tions will only come about through an upsurge ininnovation, entrepreneurship, and leadership.

Instead of bigger and more powerful vehicles,smarter vehicles are needed. Instead of demandingcheap oil, consumers need to embrace low-carbonalternatives. Government needs to invoke the pub-lic interest and spur new, cutting-edge enterprises.Leaders need to send consistent messages thatencourage better choices. Instead of overlooking ordecrying the growing demand for motorization inChina, India, and elsewhere, global action is neededto encourage innovative solutions.

The transportation community needs to summonits ingenuity and take a big step forward. Intelli-gence, leadership, and a moral vision can transformthe economy and society. Vehicles and fuels can beimproved, new mobility options can be introduced,and unsustainable travel behaviors can be altered—and the planet eventually will be able to accommo-date two billion cars.

References1. Sperling, D., and D. Gordon. Two Billion Cars: Driving

Toward Sustainability. Oxford University Press, 2009.2. Davis, S., and S. Diegel. Transportation Energy Data Book:

Edition 26. ORNL-6978, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,2007.

3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ClimateChange 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. In IPCCFourth Assessment Report, Working Group III Summary forPolicymakers, April 12, 2007.

Advances in biofuels—including marketing anddistribution—can produce key options for atransition to performance-based, low-carbon fuels.


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