WORKING PAPERS SERIES

WP05-11

Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?

Lucio Sarno

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Figure 1: Spot and Forward Dollar-Sterling Rateslo

g-s

po

t an

d lo

g-f

orw

ard

rate

s

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

S

F1

F3

F6

F12

Figure 2: 200 years of prices and exchange rates

UK and US prices and the spot dollar-sterling rate (in logs)

1791 1803 1815 1827 1839 1851 1863 1875 1887 1899 1911 1923 1935 1947 1959 1971 1983 19950

1

2

3

4

5

6

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List of other working papers:

2005

1. Shaun Bond and Soosung Hwang, Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and Cross-Sectional Aggreagation in Real Estate Price Indices, WP05-17

2. Mark Salmon, Gordon Gemmill and Soosung Hwang, Performance Measurement with Loss Aversion, WP05-16

3. Philippe Curty and Matteo Marsili, Phase coexistence in a forecasting game, WP05-15 4. Matthew Hurd, Mark Salmon and Christoph Schleicher, Using Copulas to Construct Bivariate

Foreign Exchange Distributions with an Application to the Sterling Exchange Rate Index (Revised), WP05-14

5. Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente, The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields, WP05-13

6. Lucio Sarno, Ashoka Mody and Mark Taylor, A Cross-Country Financial Accelorator: Evidence from North America and Europe, WP05-12

7. Lucio Sarno, Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?, WP05-11

8. James Hodder and Jens Carsten Jackwerth, Incentive Contracts and Hedge Fund Management, WP05-10

9. James Hodder and Jens Carsten Jackwerth, Employee Stock Options: Much More Valuable Than You Thought, WP05-09

10. Gordon Gemmill, Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, Performance Measurement with Loss Aversion, WP05-08

11. George Constantinides, Jens Carsten Jackwerth and Stylianos Perrakis, Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options, WP05-07

12. Elisa Luciano and Wim Schoutens, A Multivariate Jump-Driven Financial Asset Model, WP05-06

13. Cees Diks and Florian Wagener, Equivalence and bifurcations of finite order stochastic processes, WP05-05

14. Devraj Basu and Alexander Stremme, CAY Revisited: Can Optimal Scaling Resurrect the (C)CAPM?, WP05-04

15. Ginwestra Bianconi and Matteo Marsili, Emergence of large cliques in random scale-free networks, WP05-03

16. Simone Alfarano, Thomas Lux and Friedrich Wagner, Time-Variation of Higher Moments in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Agents: An Analytical Approach, WP05-02

17. Abhay Abhayankar, Devraj Basu and Alexander Stremme, Portfolio Efficiency and Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information: A Unified Approach, WP05-01

2004

1. Xiaohong Chen, Yanqin Fan and Andrew Patton, Simple Tests for Models of Dependence Between Multiple Financial Time Series, with Applications to U.S. Equity Returns and Exchange Rates, WP04-19

2. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing for One-Factor Models versus Stochastic Volatility Models, WP04-18

3. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Estimating and Testing Sochastic Volatility Models using Realized Measures, WP04-17

4. Valentina Corradi and Norman Swanson, Predictive Density Accuracy Tests, WP04-16 5. Roel Oomen, Properties of Bias Corrected Realized Variance Under Alternative Sampling

Schemes, WP04-15 6. Roel Oomen, Properties of Realized Variance for a Pure Jump Process: Calendar Time

Sampling versus Business Time Sampling, WP04-14

7. Richard Clarida, Lucio Sarno, Mark Taylor and Giorgio Valente, The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates, WP04-13

8. Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente, Federal Funds Rate Prediction, WP04-12 9. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the

Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers, WP04-11 10. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Currency Risk: Some

Evidence from Density Forecasts, WP04-10 11. Ilias Tsiakas, Periodic Stochastic Volatility and Fat Tails, WP04-09 12. Ilias Tsiakas, Is Seasonal Heteroscedasticity Real? An International Perspective, WP04-08 13. Damin Challet, Andrea De Martino, Matteo Marsili and Isaac Castillo, Minority games with

finite score memory, WP04-07 14. Basel Awartani, Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing and Modelling Market

Microstructure Effects with an Application to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, WP04-06 15. Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann, Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric

Loss and Nonlinearity, WP04-05 16. Andrew Patton, Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence, WP04-04 17. Alessio Sancetta, Decoupling and Convergence to Independence with Applications to

Functional Limit Theorems, WP04-03 18. Alessio Sancetta, Copula Based Monte Carlo Integration in Financial Problems, WP04-02 19. Abhay Abhayankar, Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:

Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability, WP04-01

2002

1. Paolo Zaffaroni, Gaussian inference on Certain Long-Range Dependent Volatility Models, WP02-12

2. Paolo Zaffaroni, Aggregation and Memory of Models of Changing Volatility, WP02-11 3. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Andrew Wood, Reinterpreting the Real Exchange Rate

- Yield Diffential Nexus, WP02-10 4. Gordon Gemmill and Dylan Thomas , Noise Training, Costly Arbitrage and Asset Prices:

evidence from closed-end funds, WP02-09 5. Gordon Gemmill, Testing Merton's Model for Credit Spreads on Zero-Coupon Bonds, WP02-

08 6. George Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, On th Evolution of Global Style Factors in the

MSCI Universe of Assets, WP02-07 7. George Christodoulakis, Sharp Style Analysis in the MSCI Sector Portfolios: A Monte Caro

Integration Approach, WP02-06 8. George Christodoulakis, Generating Composite Volatility Forecasts with Random Factor

Betas, WP02-05 9. Claudia Riveiro and Nick Webber, Valuing Path Dependent Options in the Variance-Gamma

Model by Monte Carlo with a Gamma Bridge, WP02-04 10. Christian Pedersen and Soosung Hwang, On Empirical Risk Measurement with Asymmetric

Returns Data, WP02-03 11. Roy Batchelor and Ismail Orgakcioglu, Event-related GARCH: the impact of stock dividends

in Turkey, WP02-02 12. George Albanis and Roy Batchelor, Combining Heterogeneous Classifiers for Stock Selection,

WP02-01

2001

1. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell , GARCH Model with Cross-sectional Volatility; GARCHX Models, WP01-16

2. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Tracking Error: Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Measures, WP01-15

3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, The Asset Allocation Decision in a Loss Aversion World, WP01-14

4. Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, An Analysis of Performance Measures Using Copulae, WP01-13

5. Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, A New Measure of Herding and Empirical Evidence, WP01-12

6. Richard Lewin and Steve Satchell, The Derivation of New Model of Equity Duration, WP01-11

7. Massimiliano Marcellino and Mark Salmon, Robust Decision Theory and the Lucas Critique, WP01-10

8. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Maria-Teresa Perez, Numerical Issues in Threshold Autoregressive Modelling of Time Series, WP01-09

9. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Ron Smith, Small Sample Properties of Panel Time-series Estimators with I(1) Errors, WP01-08

10. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, The Felsdtein-Horioka Puzzle is Not as Bad as You Think, WP01-07

11. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, Rethinking the Forward Premium Puzzle in a Non-linear Framework, WP01-06

12. George Christodoulakis, Co-Volatility and Correlation Clustering: A Multivariate Correlated ARCH Framework, WP01-05

13. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, On Preferred Point Geometry in Statistics, WP01-04

14. Eric Bouyé and Nicolas Gaussel and Mark Salmon, Investigating Dynamic Dependence Using Copulae, WP01-03

15. Eric Bouyé, Multivariate Extremes at Work for Portfolio Risk Measurement, WP01-02 16. Erick Bouyé, Vado Durrleman, Ashkan Nikeghbali, Gael Riboulet and Thierry Roncalli,

Copulas: an Open Field for Risk Management, WP01-01

2000

1. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell , Valuing Information Using Utility Functions, WP00-06 2. Soosung Hwang, Properties of Cross-sectional Volatility, WP00-05 3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Calculating the Miss-specification in Beta from Using a

Proxy for the Market Portfolio, WP00-04 4. Laun Middleton and Stephen Satchell, Deriving the APT when the Number of Factors is

Unknown, WP00-03 5. George A. Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, Evolving Systems of Financial Returns: Auto-

Regressive Conditional Beta, WP00-02 6. Christian S. Pedersen and Stephen Satchell, Evaluating the Performance of Nearest

Neighbour Algorithms when Forecasting US Industry Returns, WP00-01

1999

1. Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Ian Marsh, How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?, WP99-21

2. Soosung Hwang, John Knight and Stephen Satchell, Forecasting Volatility using LINEX Loss Functions, WP99-20

3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Improved Testing for the Efficiency of Asset Pricing Theories in Linear Factor Models, WP99-19

4. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, The Disappearance of Style in the US Equity Market, WP99-18

5. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher Moments, WP99-17

6. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Market Risk and the Concept of Fundamental Volatility: Measuring Volatility Across Asset and Derivative Markets and Testing for the Impact of Derivatives Markets on Financial Markets, WP99-16

7. Soosung Hwang, The Effects of Systematic Sampling and Temporal Aggregation on Discrete Time Long Memory Processes and their Finite Sample Properties, WP99-15

8. Ronald MacDonald and Ian Marsh, Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: a Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen, WP99-14

9. Robert Hillman, Forecasting Inflation with a Non-linear Output Gap Model, WP99-13 10. Robert Hillman and Mark Salmon , From Market Micro-structure to Macro Fundamentals: is

there Predictability in the Dollar-Deutsche Mark Exchange Rate?, WP99-12 11. Renzo Avesani, Giampiero Gallo and Mark Salmon, On the Evolution of Credibility and

Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones, WP99-11 12. Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Introduction to Differential Geometry in Econometrics,

WP99-10

13. Mark Dixon, Anthony Ledford and Paul Marriott, Finite Sample Inference for Extreme Value Distributions, WP99-09

14. Ian Marsh and David Power, A Panel-Based Investigation into the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Dividends, WP99-08

15. Ian Marsh, An Analysis of the Performance of European Foreign Exchange Forecasters, WP99-07

16. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Elementary Account of Amari's Expected Geometry, WP99-06

17. Demos Tambakis and Anne-Sophie Van Royen, Bootstrap Predictability of Daily Exchange Rates in ARMA Models, WP99-05

18. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention, WP99-04

19. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Re-examination, WP99-03

20. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market, WP99-02

21. Anthony Hall, Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Using Bayesian Variable Selection Methods to Choose Style Factors in Global Stock Return Models, WP99-01

1998

1. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Implied Volatility Forecasting: A Compaison of Different Procedures Including Fractionally Integrated Models with Applications to UK Equity Options, WP98-05

2. Roy Batchelor and David Peel, Rationality Testing under Asymmetric Loss, WP98-04 3. Roy Batchelor, Forecasting T-Bill Yields: Accuracy versus Profitability, WP98-03 4. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli , Option Hedging with Stochastic Volatility, WP98-02 5. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli, Hopscotch Methods for Two State Financial Models,

WP98-01