towards a resource efficient society
TRANSCRIPT
TOWARDS A RESOURCE
EFFICIENT SOCIETY
Shardul Agrawala
Head of Environment and Economy Integration Division OECD Environment Directorate Stockholm, 25 March 2015
1. THE NEED
Note: values using constant 2010 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates.
Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from ENV-Linkages.
3
Projections for real gross domestic product: Baseline, 2010-2050
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Bill
ions o
f consta
nt 2010 U
SD
OECD BRIICS RoW US China India
World economy will nearly quadruple by 2050
3 billion more middle-class consumers will
fuel future demand
4
Global middle class1
Billions of people
ROW
2030
3.23 Latin America
4.88
3 billion
Asia-Pacific
North America
Europe
2020
3.25
1.74
2009
1.85
0.53
1 Based on daily consumption per capita ranging from $10 to $100 (in purchasing power parity terms) Source: OECD (2011), Perspectives on Global Development: Social Cohesion in a Shifting World
0.03
Increasing extraction costs, sink saturation
Increasing cost
Atmosphere
Resource Stocks Sinks
Water
Terrestrial
72 Gt
49 Gt of GHG
228 Mt of P
12 Gt of Waste
Source: OECD/IEA data, OECD Materials Report
Extracted & used 35 Gt (1980) . . . 72 Gt (today) . . > 100 Gt
(2030) . .
SATU
RA
TION
And increasing criticality of materials (by 2030)
6
Concentration of production
Concentration of reserves
Political stability
Substitutability
Recycling
Breakdown by end-use sectors
Value added of end-use sectors
SU
PP
LY
RIS
K
ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE
CRITICALITY AREA
Al
Antimony
Barytes
Bauxite
Beryllium
Borate
Chromium
Cobalt
Coking coal
Copper
DiatomiteFeldspar
Fluorspar
Gallium
Germanium
Gold
Gypsum
Hafnium
Indium
Iron ore
Lithium
Magnesite
Magnesium
Manganese
Mo
Natural Graphite
Nickel
Niobium
PGM
Ph Rock
Potash
REE (Heavy)
REE (Light)
Rhenium
Scandium
Selenium
Silicon Metal
Ag
TantalumTelluriumTin
Titanium
Tungsten
Vanadium
Zinc
01
23
45
Su
pp
ly R
isk
.02 .04 .06 .08 .1 .12Economic Importance
CRITICALITY AREA
OECD 2015 forthcoming
2. PROGRESS TOWARDS A RESOURCE EFFICIENT SOCIETY
Some progress on decoupling materials
consumption from economic activity
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Index 2000=100
material consumption
GDP
OECD
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Index 2000=100
material consumption
GDP
World
But significant variation across countries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2011 or latest available year 2000
USD/tonne
And hidden flows further alter the picture
3. EFFORTS FOR BETTER POLICIES
Policies need to address the full material
flow cycle
Industrial systems
Product/Service supply chains
Energy production
Ecological systems
Renewable resources
stocks
Non-renewable resources stocks
Finite media
Energy sources
Societal systems
Energy use
Service use
Durable product use
Consumable product use
Natural Resource policies
Product Life cycle policies
Waste Management
policies
Waste material disposal or recovery
Material harvesting Demand fulfilment
• Reduce: eco-design, Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), green procurement
• Re-use: economic instruments (e.g. low VAT for repair work), refurbished products standards
• Recycle: Landfill and incineration taxes, EPR, PAYT, recycling targets
A diversity of instruments are being used
• Fragmented policy landscape to address specific materials, products, life-cycle stages
• Integration and coherence between policies often lacking
• Risk of shifting environmental burden from one location, or one medium, or one phase of the life-cycle to another
But…
15
Sustainable Materials Management
• Sustainable materials management, OECD working definition:
– approach to promote sustainable materials use
– integrating actions targeted at reducing negative environmental impacts and preserving natural capital
– throughout the life-cycle of materials
– taking into account economic efficiency and social equity
• Look beyond waste management to upstream life-cycle phases
• Requires the use of a policy mix, and
• Coordination across policy areas
Design of economic instruments (e.g. Extended Producer Responsibility, tradeable recycling certificates)
Sectoral and material policies (e.g. construction materials, critical materials)
Waste prevention policies
Exploring policies to support new business models, economic benefits of sustainable materials management.
Operationalising Sustainable Materials Management:
Ongoing OECD Work
http://www.oecd.org/environment/waste/