towards 4g: from cathedral to bazaarravijainweb.com/invited...

Towards 4G:From Cathedral to Bazaar

Ravi [email protected]

Jan 11, 2006

Presented at Comsware 2006, 11 Jan 2006.

1/4/2009 2Ravi Jain

Outline

• Background• The Cathedral and the Bazaar• The Bazaar in Emerging Markets• Summary

1/4/2009 3Ravi Jain

What is 4G anyway?

• Historically wireless generations have been defined in terms of air interface technology, focusing on raw bandwidth

• Views of technology evolution:– Air interface view– Devices view– Network evolution view

• As 3G demonstrates, good wireless access technology and high raw bandwidth is no longer sufficient for business success– Declining ARPU for wireless careers

• Thus for 4G it seems more appropriate to use other criteria

1/4/2009 4Ravi Jain

Network evolution view

INTERNET

PSTN

Local

Control

IP Core

3G/4G RAN Enterprise

Ad Hoc & P2P

3G/4G/WLAN B3G/4G WLAN/other

INTERNET

PSTN

2G/3G RAN

ATM Core (CS)

ATM Core (PS)

~2005: Edge of PSTN/Homogeneous RAN/

Disjoint Core

~2008: Edge of INTERNET/Heterogeneous RAN/

Single all-IP Core

2G/3G

CS = Circuit switched PS = Packet switched B3G = Beyond 3G

1/4/2009 5Ravi Jain

4G is about services

• Not raw data rates, wireless technology, IP networks, or devices• But … no one knows what the killer app is• Needed: a second waist to speed the deployment of new services

(Jain, 2003)

3.5G

Connectivity

I P

Applications

Radio Access Network

4GService Ubiquity

I P

Radio Access Network

??

Applications

Web Services Middleware

1/4/2009 6Ravi Jain

Outline


1/4/2009 7Ravi Jain

From Cathedral to Bazaar

• The image of the “cathedral” and “bazaar” was first used by Eric Raymond in an essay* that – celebrated the virtues and superiority of – expert hackerdom and open-source software (the “bazaar”)

over– conventional corporate software development (the “cathedral”)

• The material in these slides has nothing to do with hackerdom, open-source, etc

• However, the cathedral and bazaar can be useful metaphors for thinking about how 4G may develop

• This talk presents some speculation and hypotheses for discussion

* Later a book: E. Raymond, The Cathedral and the Bazaar, 2nd ed., 242 pp., O’Reilly, 2001.

1/4/2009 8Ravi Jain

Legacy Networks are Cathedrals• Hugely costly,• Carefully and painstakingly built,• By the combined effort of a huge number of

people,• In a highly structured industry, with government

regulation and standards bodies;• Designed to last for the ages,• Continuously but slowly and incrementally

improved,• With a monolithic, soup-to-nuts or stovepipe

design;• Centrally owned and managed,• With only a few in town,• Which work beautifully for their intended use.

The classic cathedral is of course the PSTN 1G, and 2G were simply chapels on the way to

constructing the 3G cathedral

1/4/2009 9Ravi Jain

Legacy Networks: A Cathedral Economic Model

• In some sense, the current economic structure of wireless carrier business can also be regarded as a “cathedral” model– Voice cash cow– Relatively few players– Carrier is network owner, network operator and service

provider

• We may be entering a “bazaar” structure on the economic side

1/4/2009 10Ravi Jain

Why Bazaars

• Technology and economics are working in concert– Cathedrals are too costly and too risky (3G woes)– Technology can be built more cheaply (e.g. evolution from

mainframe to PC)– Knowledge of technology is becoming more democratized– Technology is in rapid flux

• 802.1* is the opposite of the 3G cathedral


Key point of the bazaar

• Decentralized ownership and management structure– The key “genius” of Linux (according to Raymond)

• Bazaar at two levels– Access networks– Services


Network evolution view

INTERNET

PSTN

Local

Control

IP Core

3G/4G RAN Enterprise

Ad Hoc & P2P

3G/4G/WLAN B3G/4G WLAN/other

INTERNET

PSTN

2G/3G RAN

ATM Core (CS)

ATM Core (PS)

~2005: Edge of PSTN/Homogeneous RAN/

Disjoint Core

~2008: Edge of INTERNET/Heterogeneous RAN/

Single all-IP Core

2G/3G

CS = Circuit switched PS = Packet switched B3G = Beyond 3G


A 4G IP-Based Architecture

ALM = Application Layer MulticastCDN = Content Distribution NetworkLASS = Location Aware Services ServerMM = Mobility ManagementP2P = Peer-to-Peer

(Jain et al, 2004)

Local Control

IP Core

4G RAN Enterprise

High-level controlPolicy MM

Overlays

CDN Proxy

ALM

Loose coupling

Local Control

Loose coupling

3G/4G/WLAN 3G/4G WLAN/other

AAA

Ad Hoc / P2P

LASS

Dis

trib

uted

Con

trol

API

API

APISERVICESBazaa

r

Bazaar


Decentralized ownership

• Infrastructure– User owns nothing – User owns phone– User owns access point

• Software and services– User changes nothing– User customizes services– “User” develops services (JAIN/Parlay/OSA, SIP)– User as co-developer (as in Linux)


Possible evolution

• A complete bazaar is unlikely at any layer• Two-tier structure (e.g. Emacs): Cathedral core and bazaar halo

• Two tiers at two layers: access networks and services

Cathedral

Bazaar


Mobile terminal device as a gateway

4G Radio Access

4G Network

Device NW(Real World)

Example: Two-tier structure in access networks


Example issues for a two-tier structure

Lowering cost of 3rd party entry into services market: simpler APIs, risk management and revenue sharing technologies

Incentive technologies for relaying behavior, pricing to discourage free-riding

Economics:Making the bazaar work from an economic point of view

Rapid introduction of personalized services: languages, APIs, tools, deployment mechanisms, security

Seamless, secure integration of heterogeneous networks with core networks: architecture, protocols, algorithms

Technology:Making the bazaar work from a technical point of view

ServicesAccess Networks

• By economics issues I mean technical work that can be done that directly takes advantage of or addresses economic mechanisms.


Outline



New markets and models to explore:B24B

Provide useful, affordable Information and Communication Technology services to the 4 billion people on the planet earning less than $2000 per yr

• A Grand Challenge if there ever was one– Kalil, 2002– Prahalad & Hammond,

HBR, 2002– Jain, 2003

2B

1B

4B

> $20K

$2 - $20K

< $2K


Why?Enlightened Self-Interest

• New markets are the key to growth– Penetration and ARPU is saturating in the

developed world– Competition is raising the cost of serving the

developed world– The economies and population of less developed

countries are growing faster than the developed world

– The penetration of IT in less developed countries is miniscule

• although increasing rapidly at the top of the local pyramid


(Some) Technical Challenges

• Better support for resource and device sharing– Privacy and security– Immediate and itemized charging, billing, and payment– Personalization

• Less reliance on infrastructure– Ad-hoc and multi-hop networks– IEEE 802.1* solutions– Better power usage and alternative power sources

• Gao et al, WCNC 2003


Summary

• 4G is not about air interface speeds (Mbps) or core network technology (IP)

• 4G has to be about services• 4G architecture hypotheses

– Cathedral core and bazaar halo– Decentralized ownership & mgmt– Bazaar at two layers: Access networks and services– Technical issues: support two-tier structure securely and

efficiently– Economic issues: Pricing, incentive mechanisms, risk and

revenue sharing mechanisms• Significant interesting research challenges in applying

the bazaar model to emerging markets

Backup slides


Summary

• 4G– Services are king

• Need a second waist and programmability– New interaction modes will appear

• P2M, M2P, P2P– New markets will be explored

• B24B

• Key components of R&D are needed• Timeframe: ~2010

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future (Yogi Berra/Mark Twain)


8860

30

8620

120

8130

610

7770

880

7160

1420

6370

1750

5980

1830

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Sep/99 Sep/00 Mar/02 Mar/04

Voice ARPU i-mode ARPUyenyen

Wireless Industry Reality:Voice and i-mode Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

NTT DoCoMo Financials. USD 1 = JPY 108


Air interface view: Bandwidth

100 M

1985

10 K

100 K

1 M

10 M

1990 2000

PDCGSM

TDMAcdmaOne

GPRS

cdma20001X

WCDMA

cdmaOne1X EV-DC, 3X

EDGE

20102G 2.5G 3G 3.5G 4G1G

AMPS

802.11

802.11b5.5/11 Mb

802.11PBCC

BT

H2

Speed bps

BT = BluetoothH2 = Hiperlan 2PDC = Personal Digital Cellular


Short Range Wireless Technologies &Market Segmentation

SHO

RT

<

R

AN

GE

>

LON

G

LOW < DATA RATE > HIGH

TEXT INTERNET/AUDIO/IMAGE VIDEO MULTI-CHANNELDIGITAL VIDEO

Bluetooth1(1Mbps)

Bluetooth 2(1Gbps)

802.11g (54Mbps)

802.11a (54Mbps)

NFC(424kbps)

802.11n(>100Mbps)


Content Explosion Calls for Fast Local Connectivity

Terminal categories• Business terminals • Multimedia terminals• Game terminals

Users own gigabytes of personal data

Technologies• Wired: USB2 and 1394• Memory cards, small optical discs• Wireless: W-USB, W-1394, WLAN ad-hoc, Bluetooth

Mobile device as a personal storage

Exchange and transfer of content is necessity

“Free” and fast local connectivity required

Ref: Nokia View presented in IEEE802.15.3a


Use cases for multimedia terminals2008: high-end camera phone with

several megapixel sensor, several gigabytes of storage, video editing capabilityvideo super distribution capability

Display & print internet

W-USB, W-1394, UPnP, video-out, PCI-express, etc.

Synchronisation, downloading content sharing

Fast IP accessRef: Nokia View presented in IEEE802.15.3a

Bluetooth UWB


Devices view: This is just the beginning

Source: Rainer Malaka, EMLICDE 2001


ITU-R view

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.

Short RangeConnectivity

WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.


WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

IP basedCore Network

Services andapplications

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.


WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.


WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

Packet basedCore Network


IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.


WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.


WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

IP basedCore Network


IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.


WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.


WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

download channel

New RadioInterface

Packet basedCore Network


Source: ITU-R WP8F Vision


4G network view: An evolvable, programmable, multi-tier multi-device network

Bluetooth,IR, UWB,

ZigBee

CellularSatelliteWirelessLAN, HomeRF, etc

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